Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - January 13, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/6)-(1/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/6)-(1/5/6)-(1/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/6)-(3/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/5/6)-(3/2/1)-(1/8) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-2   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/1/7)-(3/2/1/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/2/1)-(1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1)-(1/8)-(8/3/2/4/7) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
AQU-3   WIN (1/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/8)-(1/5/8) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/8)-(1/5/8)-(1/5/8) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/8)-(8/3/2/4/7) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (1/8)-(8/3/2/4/7)-(6/3/5/7) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
AQU-4   WIN (8/3/2/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/3/2/4/7)-(8/3/2/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/3/2/4/7)-(8/3/2/4/7)-(8/3/2/4/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/3/2/4/7)-(6/3/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/3/2/4/7)-(6/3/5/7)-(2/3) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
AQU-5   WIN (6/3/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/5/7)-(6/3/5/7/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/3/5/7)-(6/3/5/7/2)-(6/3/5/7/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/3/5/7)-(2/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/3/5/7)-(2/3)-(4/2/9/8) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
AQU-6   WIN (2/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/3)-(2/1/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (2/3)-(2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (2/3)-(4/2/9/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/3)-(4/2/9/8)-(4/10/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-7   WIN (4/2/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/9/8)-(4/2/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/9/8)-(4/2/9/8)-(4/2/9/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/2/9/8)-(4/10/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/9/8)-(4/10/8)-(4/5/2/7/9) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-8   WIN (4/10/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/10/8)-(4/10/8/11) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/10/8)-(4/10/8/11)-(4/10/8/11) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/10/8)-(4/5/2/7/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
AQU-9   WIN (4/5/2/7/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/5/2/7/9)-(4/5/2/7/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/5/2/7/9)-(4/5/2/7/9)-(4/5/2/7/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 ALL PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIVEHAPPY Dec16 Nov17 Oct01     (abreu jorge )CASTILLO ISAAC 120 4.00 43% 1.30    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ARTISTIC LIFE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  TRUE CONNECTION         (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 120 10.00    
  (by CONNECT out of TIPPANY by TAPIT)
3  TUSCAN SKY         (pletcher todd)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of SOUTH ANDROS by SKY MESA)
4  SKYLER'S ARTEMIS Oct26 Sep28 Aug19     (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 15.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DANCINGINHERDREAMS by TAPIT)
5  AMBITION         (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 23% 3.30    
  (by STREET SENSE out of INSPIRED by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
6  HAVE YOU HEARD Dec16 Nov09 Oct21     (brown bruc)RIVERA R 115 1.60 10% 8.60    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FULL MOON FROLIC by VINDICATION)
 
AQU-2   01/13/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KANT BEAT THE ROCK Jan01 Dec15 Dec02 Nov10 Nov02 (jacobson)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 4.50 ★    
1A  PRESIDENT Z Jan04 Nov26 Nov15 Aug13 Jul23 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 123 4.50 10% 9.00    
2  NATURAL HARBOR Dec16 Nov03 Sep25 Feb25 Dec16 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 123 1.80 13% 6.70    
3  DARK VECTOR Dec28 Dec02 Oct26 Aug25 Jul08 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00 49% 1.00    
SCR  KENTUCKY JOKER Dec28 Nov10 Oct21 Jun25 Mar04 (englehart c)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 10.00    
5  CLUBHOUSE Dec16 Nov09 Oct21 Sep15 Aug17 (rodriguez gus)SILVERA RUBEN 123 6.00    
6  MAGNIFICENT MILE Nov18 Oct20 Sep16 Aug26 Jul14 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 123 12.00    
7  BAYOU SPIRIT Dec30 Dec16 Oct27 Aug11 Jul14 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 4.50 ★    
 
AQU-3   01/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHELLY Nov17 Aug27 Jul03     (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 122 1.60 66% 0.50    
2  MALU Dec15 Nov17 Oct12     (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 122 3.50    
3  FIRST CLASS CAT Dec30 Dec08       (kimmel)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 10.00    
4  TERESA Dec08 Oct12 Aug10     (barrera oscar )LUZZI J 122 8.00    
5  THE SPLENDID ONE Jul29 Jun17 Jun01 Apr15 Feb24 (hennig mark)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 4.00 ★    
SCR  LEM ME DRINK Dec15 Oct29 Sep16 Sep02 Jun23 (levine bruce)SILVERA RUBEN 122 15.00    
SCR  PUREST PERFORMANCE Dec30 Nov25 Nov05 Oct15 Jun24 (pregman jr)USKE S 122 20.00    
8  MONTAUK MYSTIQUE Dec15 Nov26 Oct26 Sep15 Aug10 (miceli mic)RIVERA R 117 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-4   01/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3 ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAHANATIEN Dec08         (begg j)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 12.00    
  (by MITOLE out of REGAL SERENADE by BROKEN VOW)
2  NEPTUNE BEACH Dec02         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 120 6.00 7% 14.20    
  (by LAOBAN out of PAPER KITE by FLY A KITE (IRE))
3  LIBERTY CENTRAL Dec16 Dec02 Nov04     (quick pa)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 2.50 20% 3.90    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of LIBERTY FUZE by MASS MEDIA)
4  BERNING BEAUTY         (clement chr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of THE GIANT'S BEAUTY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  AVA'S UNCLE BILLY Dec10         (de horacio)DAVIS DYLAN 120 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of AVA K. by DIXIE UNION)
6  SEBA M Dec10 Dec02 Oct19     (kantarmaci mer)LEZCANO JOSE 120 8.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of GHOSTING by GHOSTZAPPER)
7  JUST STEP ON IT Dec27 Dec01 Aug31     (linder louis )SILVERA RUBEN 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of SHEA DARBY by STREET SENSE)
8  QUIET WISDOM Nov17 Oct20 Sep14 Aug12   (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00 49% 1.10    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of WHISPER WISDOM by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
9  HOYA Dec03 Oct11 Sep08 Aug16   (lynch cathal)CANCEL ERIC 120 15.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ADORABLE YOU by GRAND SLAM)
10  HAIR ON FIRE Dec02 Oct05       (atras rob)VARGAS A 120 20.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DEPUTY CURES BLUES by WAR DEPUTY)
11  DILLON Nov03 Sep17 Aug03     (schettino domi)LUZZI J 120 30.00    
  (by GIANT SURPRISE out of COLORFULL SEATTLE by AIRDRIE APACHE)
 
AQU-5   01/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($37K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCK THE WEEKEND Dec16 Dec10 Nov11 Oct21 Sep22 (shivma)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 12.00    
2  DISAPPEARANCE Jan01 Nov25 Nov02 Oct06 Aug31 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 118 8.00 ★    
3  INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER Nov11 Aug31 Jul22 Jul04 Apr02 (diprima gregor)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.50 18% 4.60    
4  ZAPRUDER Dec03 Nov16 Oct13 Sep21 Aug06 (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 123 4.00    
5  COMPLETE AGENDA Jan01 Dec07 Oct21 Aug24 Jul16 (kantarmaci mert)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00 14% 6.00    
6  ANTHRACITE Jan01 Dec15 Nov26 Nov10 Oct21 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 4.50 32% 2.10    
7  PREDICTED Dec13 Nov17 Oct31 Oct16 Oct02 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 15.00 10% 8.90    
8  STRONG LIGHT Dec31 Dec07 Nov26 Nov11 Oct15 (younghans w)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 15.00    
9  PROVEN HOPE Dec28 Oct15 Oct04 Sep09 Aug13 (barker edwar)HARKIE K 123 8.00    
 
AQU-6   01/13/2024 5940ft DIRT RC11 MUDDY Busanda Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 2:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GIN GIN Nov25 Oct29 Sep21 Aug08   (cox h)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 2.50 ★    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BEFORE YOU KNOW IT by HARD SPUN)
2  SHIMMERING ALLURE Dec02 Nov05 Oct06 Sep20 Aug13 (mcpeek kennet)FRANCO MANUEL 122 0.80 66% 0.50    
  (by ENTICED out of SHIMMERING TALE by WILD AGAIN)
3  MOST OF ALL Dec02 Oct20 Sep03 Aug20   (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 118 4.50 5% 18.90    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of INDULGENT by BERNARDINI)
4  CLASS ACT Dec07 Nov11 Sep21     (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 118 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of MISS DRAKE by AFLEET ALEX)
5  PRINCESS MAYFAIR Dec16 Dec02 Nov11     (chircop steven)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of TOAST OF MAYFAIR by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
AQU-7   01/13/2024 4290ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($72K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AGILITY Dec30 Jul15 May29 Apr22 Mar24 (abreu fern)RIVERA R 115 6.00    
2  WARALO Dec16 Nov01 Sep19 Aug29 Jul26 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 123 4.50 24% 3.20    
3  TEN CENT TOWN Dec16 Dec01 Oct15 Aug12 Jul10 (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 6.00    
4  PLEASE BE NICE Feb20 Jan07       (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 123 4.00 32% 2.10    
5  QUICK TO ACCUSE Nov18 Oct01 Aug05 Dec03 Oct30 (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00    
SCR  MESSI THE MAGICIAN Jan06 Dec07       (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 123 12.00    
7  KID BILLY Dec16 Nov18 Dec31     (mott will)VARGAS A 120 8.00    
8  DOC ADVANTAGE Nov15 Oct25 Oct09 Sep12 Aug09 (barrow)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 20.00 8% 11.20    
9  SAFALOW'S MISSION Aug05 Jul03 Jun03 May05 Mar10 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 3.50 11% 8.00    
 
AQU-8   01/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($82K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CERTIFIED LOVERBOY Nov05 Sep28 Jul30 Jun03 May07 (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 123 20.00    
SCR  ROMANTIC GAMBLE Dec15 Aug04 Jun10 May19 Apr29 (chircop ste)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 30.00    
3  EXPECTED VALUE Apr08 Sep18 Aug20     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 5.00    
4  CASCAIS Dec02 Oct21 Nov06 Oct01   (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 27% 2.70    
SCR  SKYLANDER Oct07 Sep16 Aug26 Jul03 Jun09 (trites a)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 20.00    
6  SILO RIDGE Dec09 Aug20 Jul21     (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00    
SCR  GHOSTLYPRINCE Dec17 Nov16 Oct19 Sep14 Aug16 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 30.00    
8  PRINCIPE D'ORO Jun24 May11 Apr15 Feb25 Apr02 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 6.00 20% 3.90    
SCR  JUST CALL RAY Dec16 Nov19 Nov04 Oct22 Sep21 (potts wayn)RIVERA R 115 12.00    
10  MAMA'S GOLD Dec03 Oct20 Oct07 Sep14 Aug17 (summer)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 5.00 21% 3.80    
11  WHITTINGTON PARK Aug13 Jul01 May29 Apr14 Mar18 (englehart jerem)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.00 ★    
 
AQU-9   01/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3 ALL PT- 4:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROPHETIC Dec17 Nov17 Oct20     (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 120 15.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of WHISPERING ANGEL by NOW LISTEN)
2  INONIT Dec17 Nov17 Oct13 Aug11   (lugovich l)RUIZ ELISEO 115 6.00 9% 10.60    
  (by INCLUDE out of GREGORIAN JEST by PHONE TRICK)
3  TRIPLE WORD SCORE         (bernardi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 20.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of SHE'S ALL LOVE by LANGFUHR)
4  THE BIG TORPEDO Dec16 Nov12       (morley thomas)CANCEL ERIC 120 2.00 52% 0.90    
  (by BIG BROWN out of U. S. S. O'BRIEN by EMPIRE MAKER)
5  VIN SANTO Dec17 Nov17 Nov03 Sep17 Sep02 (brown r)LEZCANO JOSE 120 4.00 11% 8.10    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of CARAGH QUEEN by HARD SPUN)
6  MALIBU MARGARITA Dec17 Nov04       (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 8.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of FROSTY MARGARITA by FROST GIANT)
7  OUTTAWATERBURY Dec10 Nov12       (donk david)DAVIS KATIE 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of OUTTACYPRESSHILLS by BIG BROWN)
8  DIXIE PHARAOH Dec17 Nov03 Sep04 Aug23 Jul16 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of POSSESSIVE by BERNARDINI)
9  ERIC FROM MIAMI Nov03 Oct14 Sep17 Aug18 Jul28 (de hor)RIVERA R 115 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ALTERNATION out of BERNADINE by BLASE)
10  SWEPT Nov11 Oct22 May28     (legall ric)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 113 50.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of SAICHI SWEEPIN by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
11  MANNY PENNY Dec17         (coffey marial)OLVER MADISON 115 30.00    
  (by MICROMANAGE out of SUN PENNIES by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.