Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Aqueduct
Sunday - November 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

AQU-1   WIN (1/7/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/5/2)-(1/7/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/5/2)-(1/7/5/2)-(1/7/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/5/2)-(4/5/7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/5/2)-(4/5/7/1)-(5/2/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-2   WIN (4/5/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/7/1)-(4/5/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/7/1)-(4/5/7/1)-(4/5/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/7/1)-(5/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/7/1)-(5/2/3)-(2/4/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-3   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/3)-(2/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3)-(2/4/1)-(8/4/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-4   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(8/4/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1)-(8/4/5)-(1/3/5/9/7) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-5   WIN (8/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/4/5)-(8/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/4/5)-(8/4/5)-(8/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/4/5)-(1/3/5/9/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/4/5)-(1/3/5/9/7)-(1/6/2) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-6   WIN (1/3/5/9/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/3/5/9/7)-(1/3/5/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/3/5/9/7)-(1/3/5/9/7)-(1/3/5/9/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/3/5/9/7)-(1/6/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/3/5/9/7)-(1/6/2)-(1/8/4/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/2)-(1/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/2)-(1/6/2)-(1/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/6/2)-(1/8/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/6/2)-(1/8/4/3)-(7/9/3/10) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-8   WIN (1/8/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/8/4/3)-(1/8/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/8/4/3)-(1/8/4/3)-(1/8/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/8/4/3)-(7/9/3/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
AQU-9   WIN (7/9/3/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/9/3/10)-(7/9/3/8/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/9/3/10)-(7/9/3/8/10)-(7/9/3/8/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
AQU-1   11/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($16K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TETSU Oct28 Oct18 Aug18 Jul22 Jun23 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 121 2.00 58% 0.70    
1A  GOT THUNDER Oct26 Aug05 Jun18 Apr30 Mar17 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 2.00    
COOL QUARTET Oct21 Oct05 Sep08 Jul08 Jun24 (noda orland)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
LEDDY Nov04 Oct22 Oct07 Sep16 Jul23 (gober)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 20.00    
HIGHER QUALITY Oct22 Sep21 Sep08 Jul22 Jun24 (chatte)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 8.00    
BUSTIN SHOUT Nov03 Sep16 Aug23 Jul14 Jun13 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 116 10.00 8% 11.70    
MISTER J T Oct22 Sep28 Sep13 Aug20 Jul29 (potts wayne)ORTIZ JR 121 4.00    
MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT Oct28 Oct09 Sep03 Jul14 Apr15 (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 121 1.60 8% 10.80    
 
AQU-2   11/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 2 F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MISS PLA         (jimenez )DAVIS A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
MEL'S ANGEL Oct20 Oct10 Jul26     (giddin)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 10.00    
LA PICASITA Sep16 Jul08       (antonucci j)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 10.00    
YOU'RE FOREVER         (mcpeek kenn)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.50 45% 1.20    
UNION BELLE Oct14         (rice linda)ORTIZ L 119 3.00 16% 5.20    
TAP THE KEG Sep16 Aug09 Jul13     (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 119 12.00    
TO BE LOVED BY YOU Oct01         (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 8.00 8% 11.40    
PROGENY Oct21 Sep16 Sep03     (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 119 1.60    
 
AQU-3   11/12/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($92K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOOD SKATE Oct13 Sep21 Aug23 Jul27 Jul01 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 123 3.00    
COSTA TERRA Oct13 Oct01 Aug18 Aug09 Jul21 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 123 2.00 23% 3.30    
GUNTOWN Oct21 Oct01 Sep02 Aug13 Aug03 (abreu fernando)ORTIZ L 123 12.00 20% 4.00    
SIGNATOR Oct21 Oct06 Aug30 Aug05 Oct14 (mcgaughey cl)CASTELLANO J 120 3.00    
LITTLE DEMON Sep30 Sep06 Aug22 Jul23 Jun25 (ness jamie)SILVERA RUBEN 123 2.50 31% 2.20    
PORTOS Nov02 Oct13 Sep21 Sep10 Aug18 (potts wayne)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 12.00    
 
AQU-4   11/12/2023 7260ft TURF RC12 FIRM Long Island Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE Sep22 Aug27 Aug06 Jul04 May26 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 121 5.00 8% 11.40    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of JONATA by PROUD CITIZEN)
VERGARA Oct22 Sep09 Aug03 Jun17 May20 (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 125 1.20 52% 0.90    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of FIGURE OF BEAUTY by STREET CRY (IRE))
ATOMIC BLONDE (GER) Oct08 Sep09 Jul15 Jun16 May05 (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 121 3.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of ALWINA by AREION (GER))
R CALLI KIM Oct15 Aug31 Jul23 Jul03 May26 (walsh brendan )ORTIZ L 121 2.50 16% 5.30    
  (by REVOLUTIONARY out of IT TAKES TWO by DANCE CENTRE)
RHOMBIQUE Sep22 Sep01 Jul26 Jul04 Nov27 (ribaudo robert )DAVIS DYLAN 121 20.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
EMBRACE ME Sep22 Aug25 Jul26 Jun29 May29 (albertrani )MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 50.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of ASSERTIVE by BLAME)
UNRULY JULIE Oct19 Sep02 Aug02 Jul01 Jun17 (mott william )FRANCO MANUEL 121 20.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of JULIE B by EASTOVER COURT)
SCR  AMANDA'S FOLLY Oct29 Sep04 Aug27 Jul26 Jul02 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 121 1.80    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of PRIVACY by NOTEBOOK)
 
AQU-5   11/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOREIGN INFLUENCE Oct13 Aug17 Jul30 May29 May06 (jacobson david)CARMOUCHE K 124 4.00    
  (by DECLARATION OF WAR out of GADGET QUEEN by FLYING WITH EAGLES)
1A  XCELLENT MEN Oct28 Aug03       (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 4.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BEAUTIFUL GIRL by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  VENGE Oct13 Jul01 May21 Apr21 Jan14 (ribaudo ro)RIVERA R 117 20.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CLASSIC POINT by FLATTER)
SAVINGS RATE         (brown c)ORTIZ L 124 4.50    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of TENSAS COWGIRL by COWBOY CAL)
WAR STRIDE Sep17 Aug11       (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.50 12% 7.60    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of MUDREQAH by SEEKING THE GOLD)
LOGIN REQUIRED Oct15 Feb11 Dec16 Nov06 Aug22 (nevin michel)CASTELLANO J 122 6.00 5% 17.60    
  (by RACE DAY out of MISS FONTANA by CLASSIC ACCOUNT)
SCR  RESPIRATOR Oct25 Sep26 Sep11 Aug29 Aug22 (jones c)HADDOCK DEXTER 122 15.00    
  (by PEACE AND JUSTICE out of LA PADRINA by EL PADRINO)
PARTY WITH SMARTY Sep17 Aug26 Aug04 Jul15   (gutierrez jam)MARTIN MATTIE 115 30.00    
  (by SMARTY JONES out of GHOST MAGI by GHOSTZAPPER)
GOLDEN SOMBRERO May06 Apr07 Mar05     (weaver george)ORTIZ JR 122 1.60 54% 0.80    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of TAKE CHARGE PAULA by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
 
AQU-6   11/12/2023 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($90K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ALLURING ANGEL (GB) Apr14 Nov27 Oct01 Sep13 Aug04 (maker micha)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 4.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  LIBRETTO (IRE) Oct05 Jul02 Jun03 May07 Mar04 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 123 4.50    
WESTERN LANE Aug18 Jul19 Jun22 May28 Feb10 (brion keri)CASTELLANO J 123 20.00    
NOTINAMILLIONYEARS (IRE) Oct12 Aug17       (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00 25% 3.10    
SWOOP TO FINISH Sep01 Jul04 Jun16 Oct29 Sep11 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 123 6.00    
UNION DOLLY Jun01 May26 Apr21 Jan25 Dec23 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 121 6.00 20% 3.90    
VIENNA CODE Aug09 Jul22 Jul01 Jun03 May18 (williams andrew)RUIZ ELISEO 118 30.00    
DREAMAWAYSEVEN Sep24 Jul04 Apr28 Mar30 Mar17 (englehart chr)SILVERA RUBEN 120 30.00 5% 19.00    
SHE'S MO BUBBLY Sep22 Aug30 Jul29 Jun03 Apr08 (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 123 6.00    
IN TIME (FR)         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 123 4.50 5% 19.00    
10  ZIPADOO Oct14 Aug25 Dec26 Oct27   (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 120 8.00    
 
AQU-7   11/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TWO THIRTY FIVE Oct14 Oct05 Sep21 Aug10 Jul13 (noda orlando)ORTIZ JR 123 2.50 26% 2.90    
SCR  STYNER Oct17 Sep06 Aug25 Jul24 Jun26 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 121 2.50    
KLICKITAT Oct06 Sep15 Jul27 Jun17 May14 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 15.00 17% 4.80    
SCR  INVISIBLE WAR Sep21 Sep03 Aug03 Jul14 Jun17 (barrera s)DAVIS KATIE 123 10.00    
SCR  MOUNT TRAVERS Oct27 Oct07 Jul30 Jul13 Jun17 (chichakly ami)OLVER MADISON 116 30.00    
SCR  SIX PERCENT Oct22 Sep21 Jun11 Apr14 Mar11 (kantarmaci me)SILVERA RUBEN 123 4.00    
MARKET ALERT Oct04 Jul23 May27 May14 Apr16 (jacobson d)RIVERA R 118 4.50 21% 3.80    
ALFIO Sep14 Aug13 Aug05 Jul14 Jul02 (walder peter)CASTELLANO J 123 12.00    
DURKIN'S CALL Oct21 Oct05 Sep03 Aug06 Jul02 (sells rachel)RUIZ ELISEO 116 8.00    
SCR  BEACHWALKER Oct14 Oct04 Aug05 Jul05 May15 (persaud randi)LUZZI J 121 12.00    
SCR  GENTLEMAN JOE May04 Apr01 Feb25 Feb10 Dec15 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 121 5.00    
 
AQU-8   11/12/2023 5280ft TURF RC11 FIRM Artie Schiller Purse ($150K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PIONEERING SPIRIT Oct20 Oct07 Sep04 Aug26 Jul27 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 3.50 29% 2.40    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of FOUNDATION SPIRIT by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  BRING ME A CHECK Sep22 Sep04 Aug23 Jul26 Jul07 (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 121 12.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of GIRLSASAINT by SAINT LIAM)
JAMES ALOYSIUS Oct19 Aug26 Jul20 May27 Apr15 (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
BIG EVEREST (GB) Aug13 Jul15 May27 Apr15 Nov13 (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 123 4.00 16% 5.20    
  (by THE GURKHA out of LONG FACE by WHYWHYWHY)
JERRY THE NIPPER Oct29 Oct06 Aug27 Jul30 Jul03 (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 121 4.50    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of AQUA REGIA by GOLD MERIDIAN)
EXACT ESTIMATE Sep21 Jul20 Jun17 Apr26 Mar17 (brown c)ORTIZ JR 123 6.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MAGIC UNION by DIXIE UNION)
WICKED FINN Sep04 Aug11 Jul14 May24 Apr22 (kelly blake)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 30.00    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of LIMERICK by BLACK MINNALOUSHE)
MASEN (GB) Oct08 Oct08 Aug13 Jun18 May22 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 121 4.00 28% 2.50    
  (by KINGMAN out of CONTINENTAL DRIFT by FLYING CONTINENTAL)
ST ANTHONY Sep04 Jul28 Jul04 May11 Dec03 (drysdale nei)LOPEZ PASCACIO 123 8.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of AMNESIA by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT)
SCR  OFFALY COOL Oct17 Sep04 Jul28 Jun26 Jun07 (solis jacinto)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50    
  (by KANTHAROS out of ASSURED by SIGNAL TAP)
SCR  SHERIFF BIANCO Oct29 Oct01 Sep21 Sep15 Aug11 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 121 2.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of SUMMER RULES by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
SCR  KINETIC SKY Sep21 Sep15 Jun15 Apr30 Mar04 (dutrow e)RIDER TBA 121 4.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of SKY AMERICA by SKY MESA)
 
AQU-9   11/12/2023 3960ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FRANKIE R.         (coffey marialice)USKE S 119 30.00    
  (by MAJESTIC CITY out of MARY A by FREUD)
TEMPESTA CREMISI         (sells rachel)HARKIE K 119 20.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of ALABAMA BOUND by PROUD CITIZEN)
DIANNESRETIRING Sep04         (baker charlt)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 5.00 11% 7.90    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of DIANNESTILLWORKS by SCAT DADDY)
GOD LAUGHS Oct05         (baker charlton)DAVIS DYLAN 119 15.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of TALKING TREASURE by CATIENUS)
MAMA'S DREAM Sep21         (maker michael)SILVERA RUBEN 119 8.00    
  (by FREUD out of MAMA THERESA by CARSON CITY)
OUTTAWATERBURY         (donk david)DAVIS KATIE 119 15.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of OUTTACYPRESSHILLS by BIG BROWN)
BEACH CRUISER Oct21         (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 116 2.50 39% 1.60    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of CATCHA RISING STAR by RED GIANT)
THE BIG TORPEDO         (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 119 5.00    
  (by BIG BROWN out of U. S. S. O'BRIEN by EMPIRE MAKER)
LOTSA TROUBLE         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 26% 2.80    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of SOLAR SURGE by BERNARDINI)
10  TIZ THE PRINCE         (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of TIZ EPIC by TIZNOW)
SCR  SAHANATIEN         (begg j)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 15.00    
  (by MITOLE out of REGAL SERENADE by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  BALLYHEIGUE         (levine)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 15.00    
  (by MISSION IMPAZIBLE out of DELECTABLE CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  MAZZEI         (bond harold)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 10.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of WAY SMART by TIZWAY)
SCR  LONCHURA Jul09 May28 May11     (chichakly amira)CANCEL ERIC 116 10.00    
  (by TONALIST out of MADOFFWITHTHECASH by DIXIE UNION)
SCR  ELYSIAN MEADOWS         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.50    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of HEAVENLY THOUGHT by WAR FRONT)
SCR  IN A MINUTE Oct13 Sep14       (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 119 6.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of TIME WARP by CAIRO PRINCE)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.