Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 20, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/1)-(4/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/1)-(7/1/3/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/1)-(7/1/3/8)-(1/7/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/1/3/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/3/8)-(7/1/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/3/8)-(7/1/3/8)-(7/1/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/3/8)-(1/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/1/3/8)-(1/7/6)-(4/2/3/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/6)-(1/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/6)-(1/7/6)-(1/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/6)-(4/2/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/7/6)-(4/2/3/5)-(10/6/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/2/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/3/5)-(4/2/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/3/5)-(4/2/3/5)-(4/2/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/2/3/5)-(10/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/3/5)-(10/6/4)-(7/1/6/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/6/4)-(10/6/9/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (10/6/4)-(10/6/9/4)-(10/6/9/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (10/6/4)-(7/1/6/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/6/4)-(7/1/6/9)-(2/6/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/1/6/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/6/9)-(7/1/6/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/6/9)-(7/1/6/9)-(7/1/6/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/6/9)-(2/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/1/6/9)-(2/6/3)-(5/9/11) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/3)-(2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/6/3)-(5/9/11) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3)-(5/9/11)-(5/12/4/9/10) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-8   WIN (5/9/11) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/9/11)-(5/9/1/11) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/9/11)-(5/9/1/11)-(5/9/1/11) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/9/11)-(5/12/4/9/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (5/12/4/9/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/12/4/9/10)-(5/12/4/9/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/12/4/9/10)-(5/12/4/9/10)-(5/12/4/9/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/20/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAMARA'S WAY Sep03 Aug04 Jul16 Jun18 May26 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 20% 4.00    
2  DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE Jun11 May02 Feb15 Dec02 Nov20 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 121 6.00    
3  SHES A SECRET Aug04 Jun24 Jun02 Sep21 Aug06 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
4  SOCIAL MANDATE Jun24 May27 Apr27 Apr08 Feb22 (hancock john )CANNON DECLAN 121 6.00 38% 1.60    
SCR  OATH OF ALLEGIANCE Aug11 May19 Feb17 Jan20 Dec31 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00    
SCR  GOLDBLOODED Aug27 Jul02 May20 Jan20 Dec31 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00    
7  COOL CAROL Jul03 Jan25 Nov10 Sep23 Aug24 (green troy)NAVAS YOEL 114 20.00    
 
CD-2   09/20/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JAYCE AND LIAM Aug01         (englehart)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00 17% 4.80    
2  ROSE DARLING Aug12         (humphries thomas)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00    
3  AUTISM COMPASSION Aug01         (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 17% 4.80    
4  DOOBLAY Aug12 Jul19 Jul09     (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 5.00    
5  CHOCTAW GRACE Aug11         (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00    
6  PUCKERED Aug01         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00    
7  WRECK IT RUBY Aug20 Aug01 May27 May12   (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 3.50 43% 1.30    
8  ESPERE Jul01         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SCARLET MISS Sep02         (macias adolfo)BEJARANO R 119 2.50    
 
CD-3   09/20/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TREATY Aug06 Jun15 Mar19 Feb12 Jan14 (barrett r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.50 35% 1.90    
2  LONG CROW Aug26 Aug04 Jun24 May26 May11 (shorter a)TORRES A 122 5.00    
3  CALL ME GUSTO Jul19 Jun17 May22 Jul05 Jun23 (huffman pat)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 12.00    
4  COASTAL DEFENSE Aug06 Jun22 May06 Mar04 Nov23 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 3.50    
5  NAVY CROSS Aug23 Jul27 Jun16 May20 May06 (engler jeff)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
6  MASTER GAME Jul21 Jun22 May11 Apr15 Feb21 (forster t)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 12% 7.20    
7  SANT' ANTIMO Aug26 Jul31 Jun29     (hiles je)SANTANA JR 120 4.00 17% 4.80    
 
CD-4   09/20/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONOR GOLD Aug20 Aug01 Jul02     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00    
2  BOOSTER SHOT Jul07 Jun16 May30 Apr29 Mar09 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 26% 2.90    
3  SPUNS SON Sep01 Aug18 Jul31 Jul07 May29 (hill f)CANNON DECLAN 124 10.00 11% 8.30    
4  MY BROTHER KEITH Aug20 Dec21       (diodoro r)TORRES A 124 3.50 33% 2.00    
5  SCOTCH NO ROCKS Aug31 Aug09 Jul14 Jun22 Jun10 (roberson )HERNANDEZ J 124 20.00 6% 16.30    
6  GORDY'S LABEL Jul23 Dec03 Oct30     (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 5.00    
7  SOLEVO Apr22         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 5.00    
8  CREATIVE WAY Aug05 Jun22 May25     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00    
9  GENERATION (GB) Aug26 Aug09       (simms j)GEROUX FLORENT 120 15.00    
 
CD-5   09/20/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO Aug11         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
SCR  WAUHATCHIE         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 15.00    
3  VINO FA DANZA         (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00    
4  JACKSON D         (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  EAST FROM WEST         (vance d)LANERIE J 119 8.00    
6  WALDRIP         (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 26% 2.90    
SCR  REDHEADEDSTRANGER Aug20 May12       (nesbitt a)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 116 20.00    
8  DEBT PAID         (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 10.00    
9  WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS         (englehart j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00 ★    
10  STORMQUIST May18         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 1.20 48% 1.10    
 
CD-6   09/20/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WIKI LIO Aug26 Jun18 May12 Mar26 Mar03 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 28% 2.60    
2  MISCHIEVOUS GAL Aug28 Aug12 Jul08 Apr23 Mar18 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
3  MENDED WE STAND Aug26 Aug09 Jun02 Apr23 Mar05 (bahena ismael)BEJARANO R 120 10.00    
4  MY BLUE VALENTINE Aug28 Aug01 Jun23 May14   (hill f)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00    
5  BALL GOWN Aug01 Jul11 Jun11 May27 May03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 5.00    
6  MEAN SUE May11 Apr14 Mar10 Jan04 Nov25 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 4.50 15% 5.80    
7  BEAUXS ARTES Aug26 Jun11 May25 May04 Mar23 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.50 32% 2.10    
SCR  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF Dec31 Nov25 Oct21 Sep17 Aug21 (o'connor rober)MACHADO LUAN 121 20.00    
9  CANDY KICK Aug03 Dec30 Oct29 Sep30 Aug14 (mason ingrid)ASHTON GAVIN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   09/20/2023 3300ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COPPOLA Aug23 Jul26 Jun10 May20 May02 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 1.80    
2  SHIMMER ME TIMBERS Aug19 Jul21 Jul07 May23 Apr18 (gorostieta c)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 2.50 50% 1.00    
3  JOHNNY UNLEASHED Jun01 Apr26 Apr08 Feb17 Jan01 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  VULCAN Aug04 Jun30 May05 Mar17 Feb25 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00    
5  BODENHEIMER Aug24 Jul20 Jul03 Jun11 Dec14 (lund valorie)WADE LYNDIE 123 5.00    
6  KAVOD Jul27 Mar09 Jan28 Jan06 Dec10 (hartman ch)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 24% 3.20    
 
CD-8   09/20/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRITERDAYZAHEAD Jul16 Jun23 May21 Apr16 Sep03 (sharp joe)LANERIE J 118 6.00 ★    
SCR  ELITE FORCES Aug20 Jun25       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 5.00    
3  BLUE LIGHT Aug13 Jun25 May21 Apr08 Mar11 (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
4  BROMLEY Mar04 Jan21 Dec28 Nov19   (lobo paul)TORRES A 118 12.00    
5  GIANT MISCHIEF Feb25 Dec17 Nov04 Sep22   (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 51% 1.00    
SCR  RELEASE MCCRAKEN Aug13 Jul08 Apr29 Mar25 Dec03 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
7  OLAZABAL Aug13 Aug04 May06 Apr16 Mar25 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 118 30.00    
8  TWO EAGLES RIVER Jun04 Apr22 Apr01 Feb19 Jan14 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
9  RETAINED Aug10 Jun22 May19 Apr18 Feb11 (morey e)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 18% 4.50    
10  MAJOR BLUE Aug25 Aug04 Jul21 Jul08 Jun11 (lukas wayn)TORRES A 113 12.00    
11  LARK'S MISCHIEF Jul30 Jun23 May28 Apr08 Mar03 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CORTESE Aug30 Aug09 Jul20 Nov02 Oct02 (hernandez )MURRILL MITCHELL 120 30.00    
 
CD-9   09/20/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INDY LABEL Aug04         (barkley jason)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00    
  (by TONALIST out of SWEET AUGUST LADY by CITY ZIP)
2  GOLD DEL MAR Sep03 Jul23 Jun29     (bahena isma)BURNHAM MATILDA 109 6.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of DEL MAR BABE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  CHIQUITA REINA         (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of ARTIC QUEEN by MR. GREELEY)
4  PROMISEMEANEMPIRE Aug26         (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 5.00 12% 7.60    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of PROMISE ME MORE by MORE PLEASURE)
5  UP ON THE EDGE Aug11 Jul16       (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 3.50 31% 2.30    
  (by UPSTART out of GOLD EDGE by EDDINGTON)
6  STERLING LUCK         (forster t)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of CARA DURA by WAR FRONT)
7  LOST LOVE         (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of GIBBY by TIZWAY)
8  ROCK STAR DOCTOR Aug13         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by CONNECT out of ANSIBLE by STREET SENSE)
9  DESPO'S DREAM Aug04         (puhich mik)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 12% 7.60    
  (by MITOLE out of POINTE CLASS by ARCH)
10  WEE BIT O MISCHIEF Aug11 Jul16 Jun10     (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LA CANELA by CONGRATS)
11  NAUGHTY MISS Aug11 Jul16 Jun25     (roberson )HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of INCLUDING by INCLUDE)
12  SHIMMERING ALLURE Aug13 Jul16 Jun10     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 25% 3.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SHIMMERING TALE by WILD AGAIN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.