Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - June 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (4/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/3)-(4/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/3)-(4/5/3)-(4/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/3)-(5/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/3)-(5/4/6/2)-(4/3/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-2   WIN (5/4/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/6/2)-(4/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6/2)-(4/3/6)-(7/6/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/6)-(4/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/6)-(4/3/6)-(4/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/6)-(7/6/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/3/6)-(7/6/8)-(7/8/2/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-4   WIN (7/6/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/8)-(7/6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/6/8)-(7/6/8)-(7/6/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/6/8)-(7/8/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/8)-(7/8/2/4)-(8/4/5/10/11) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-5   WIN (7/8/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/2/4)-(7/8/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/2/4)-(7/8/2/4)-(7/8/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/2/4)-(8/4/5/10/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/8/2/4)-(8/4/5/10/11)-(1/11/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-6   WIN (8/4/5/10/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/4/5/10/11)-(8/4/5/10/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/4/5/10/11)-(8/4/5/10/11)-(8/4/5/10/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/4/5/10/11)-(1/11/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/4/5/10/11)-(1/11/3)-(4/1/2) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-7   WIN (1/11/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/11/3)-(1/11/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/11/3)-(1/11/3)-(1/11/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/11/3)-(4/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/11/3)-(4/1/2)-(6/9/1/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-8   WIN (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/2)-(4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/2)-(6/9/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2)-(6/9/1/5)-(6/4/7/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-9   WIN (6/9/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/1/5)-(6/9/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/1/5)-(6/9/1/5)-(6/9/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/9/1/5)-(6/4/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ELP-10   WIN (6/4/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   06/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRAVENSWORTH May05 Nov24       (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
2  CREPE YARNS Jun01 Nov26 Oct30 Sep29   (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50    
3  ROYAL AIR FORCE May29 May05 Apr08 Apr02 Jan30 (hancock a)MACHADO LUAN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  CAPTIVATED DRAMA May06         (wong jonathan)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 58% 0.70    
5  DARYL'S BOLT Apr30 Apr16 Mar04 Jan22 Dec26 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 2.00 12% 7.50    
6  CHARLIE WHISKEY May21 Apr29 Apr08 Mar09 May27 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 4.00    
 
ELP-2   06/17/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 2 F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOOTSY'S MERLOT Apr26 Apr12       (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
2  CASSOULET         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  LITTLE SASS         (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
4  SLAINTE MHATH May04         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 114 3.50 15% 5.90    
5  GROVE ST. May15         (hancock a)NAVAS YOEL 112 4.00 52% 0.90    
6  SAPPHIRE NIGHTS May19 Apr19       (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 8% 11.70    
SCR  WRECK IT RUBY May27 May12       (holsapple)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
8  MISS SAIPAN         (gutierrez )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
SCR  OUR KEEPSAKE         (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00    
10  STRANGE JOY         (bright der)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 20.00    
 
ELP-3   06/17/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INVISIBLE WAR May13 Apr19 Mar26 Mar09 Feb11 (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.50    
2  BIG BEEMSTER May18 Mar12 Feb20 Jan28 Jan06 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
3  HOYA PARANOYA Mar19 Mar03 Feb11 Jan28 Apr25 (puhich mik)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.00 18% 4.60    
4  COURTHOUSE COVE Apr15 Mar09 Feb26 Feb12 Jan15 (wong jon)RODRIGUEZ A 118 2.00 37% 1.70    
5  ASPEN CLUB May26 Apr15 Mar23 Feb11 Jan21 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 10.00    
6  SANTA CRUISER May14 Mar05 Feb17 Jan22 Jun08 (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 6.00 12% 7.10    
 
ELP-4   06/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHAKIN LOOSE         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of NEW SHAKER by BERNSTEIN)
2  WOODCOURT Apr20         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 20.00    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of WARRIORESS by POWERFUL VENUE)
SCR  NORTHERN FLAME         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DARLING'S DARLING by BERNARDINI)
4  JUST STEEL         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of IRISH LIGHTS by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
SCR  NORMANDY HERO         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 29% 2.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SWAN OF THE NILE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
6  STEEL LINK         (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of BANSHEE BIRDIE by BIRDSTONE)
7  BALTA         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 26% 2.90    
  (by MUNNINGS out of LAQUESTA by LEMON DROP KID)
8  RACCOON RODEO         (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of CORONADO ROSE by CORONADO'S QUEST)
9  CAPER'S HOOLEY         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of BEAR IT by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
SCR  EPIC BATTLE         (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of SPEEDY WAR by WAR FRONT)
 
ELP-5   06/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JEREMY'S JET May29 Mar23 Oct29 Oct08 Aug19 (mcentee paul)HEARD TYLER 118 30.00    
2  DR. PERRY Apr01 Nov25 Sep30 Aug20   (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 123 4.00 10% 9.20    
3  ICEATUDE May18 Apr14 Dec31 Dec11 Nov13 (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 10.00    
4  KENTUCKY BOURBON May20 Apr15 Mar23 Mar04 Feb03 (wong jonathan)MACHADO LUAN 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KBCYA LATER Oct09 Sep08 Aug14 Jul21 Jun22 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
6  HOCUS (GB) May21 Apr16       (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 123 6.00    
7  OVERBORE Apr28 Aug24 Aug13 Apr13   (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 118 1.60 35% 1.90    
8  SPARTAN ARMY May03 Feb21 Dec29 Nov25 Nov04 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 3.50 30% 2.30    
 
ELP-6   06/17/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROJA REDEMPTION Apr21 Mar25 Feb10     (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
2  POINT PROVEN Mar25 Mar02 Jan13 Nov26 Sep18 (cohn alic)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
SCR  DOG RED May28 Apr26 Feb03 Dec28 Nov23 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 15.00    
4  MIRANDA RIGHTS Mar04 Feb11 Jan05 Dec02 Oct15 (casse mark)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 23% 3.30    
5  DEMOLITION DUKE Apr15 Mar19 Feb05     (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 6% 15.40    
6  GO BALI GO Apr29 Mar30 Mar10 Feb11 Dec28 (nance jonathan)BEJARANO R 124 20.00    
7  THREE ON THE TREE Apr15 Mar19 Jan28 Jan21 Nov03 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
8  MORE THAN LOOKS Apr28 Mar31 Feb19     (devaux ch)TORRES A 118 4.00 41% 1.40    
9  ANGLOPHILE May06 Apr01 Jul30 Jul10 Jun19 (lynch bria)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
10  FEARLESS SOLDIER Mar12 Feb16       (pletcher)SANTANA JR 118 4.50 5% 18.10    
11  OCEAN POINTE May17 Apr21 Mar25 Mar16 Feb03 (estvanko richard)MOJICA O 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DUNEDIN May17 Apr28 Apr01 Oct09 Sep08 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
SCR  EL AHIJADO May20 Apr19 Mar30 Mar04 Dec30 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 117 20.00    
SCR  MOONSTRIKE (GB) May20 Apr28 Mar25 Feb24   (engler jeff)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
 
ELP-7   06/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZEITLOS Apr15 Sep16 Aug13     (asmussen )TORRES A 118 1.60 48% 1.10    
  (by CURLIN out of THYME FOR ROSES by REDOUTE'S CHOICE)
SCR  SUPER CHRISTIE Jun11 May06 Apr15 Mar09   (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 30.00    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of CHRISTIE VILLAGE by DEPUTY MINISTER)
3  PHAT CHANCE FANCY         (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SPARKLING CITY by CAPE TOWN)
SCR  RITA'S ONTHE BEACH         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
  (by SKY KINGDOM out of LAC DU PRINTEMPS by MEADOWLAKE)
SCR  PETTICOAT         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SPINSTRESS by HARD SPUN)
SCR  SPELTERINI Apr15 Mar17 Feb17 Jan07 Nov05 (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of KEEPSHERCOOL by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  A LOTTA WILD         (catalano wayn)GILLIGAN JACK 118 15.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of SHE BE WILD by OFFLEE WILD)
8  UNCORKED (AUS) May28 May27       (wong jonath)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 12.00    
  (by PIERRO out of PIAF by PROUD BIRDIE)
9  IT'S MAGIC         (winebaugh )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of HONOUR ISABEL by HONOUR AND GLORY)
10  SAUCY SECRET May20         (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TIZ MIZ SUE by TIZNOW)
11  DRIANA May20         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 30% 2.30    
  (by KANTHAROS out of MARCELLINA D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  CORRI FELICE May05 Apr21       (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ONE SHOW ONLY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  WITH THIS RING May20 Oct16       (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of TRIPLE O' FIVE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
 
ELP-8   06/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC11 FAST Monomoy Girl Overnight Purse ($175K) 3 F PT- 5:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WET PAINT May05 Apr01 Feb25 Jan28 Dec14 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.20 35% 1.80    
  (by BLAME out of SKY PAINTER by STREET CRY (IRE))
2  FLAMAND Apr28 Apr02 Feb25 Jan28 Dec26 (lopez elias)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of COVEY TRACE by STEVIE WONDERBOY)
SCR  NEVER TELL PATTI May18 Apr01 Mar02     (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of PRINCESSOF THE NYL by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
4  HOOSIER PHILLY May19 Mar25 Feb18 Nov26 Oct30 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 1.40 40% 1.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TAPELLA by TAPIT)
5  CHAMPAGNE CALLING May05 Feb11 Jan07 Jun17   (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of ESCULTURA by PULPIT)
6  SABRA TUFF May05 Nov04 Oct07 Sep04 Aug07 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CACTUS CADILLAC by CACTUS RIDGE)
 
ELP-9   06/17/2023 6600ft TURF RC11 FIRM Chorleywood Overnight Purse ($175K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIDDEN STASH May19 Apr13 Feb12 Jun18 Jun03 (oliver victoria)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 9% 10.20    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of MAKING MARK MONEY by SMART STRIKE)
2  THERAPIST May20 Apr01 Feb11 Jan20 Dec30 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.00    
  (by FREUD out of LADY RENAISSANCE by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  FENWICK STATION May11 Apr20 Mar24 Apr22 Mar19 (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
  (by MAGICIAN (IRE) out of WICKAPECKO by CORINTHIAN (IRE))
4  VIVAR May11 Apr15 Feb22 Jan21 Oct21 (medina ro)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of DEBIT by TAPIT)
5  PUNCH HARD May19 Apr15       (beckman whitwo)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of INDY PUNCH by PULLING PUNCHES)
6  FOREIGN RELATIONS May20 Apr19 Mar10 Feb16 Jan25 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 123 2.00 42% 1.40    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of QUEST by MR. SIDNEY)
7  BAY STREET MONEY May20 Apr01 Feb18 Jan13 Nov18 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of COLLECT THE CASH by DYNAFORMER)
8  MEDIA BLITZ May29 Mar05 Jan29     (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of COMMUNIQUE by SMART STRIKE)
9  TIZ THE BOMB May20 Apr22 Apr07 Mar25 Feb18 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 22% 3.60    
  (by HIT IT A BOMB out of TIZ THE KEY by TIZNOW)
 
ELP-10   06/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONDIMENT GIRL May04 Mar09 Nov18 Oct21 Sep08 (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 6.00    
SCR  DE' ANS EIGHTY May20 Mar23 Feb25     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
3  LA CUMPARSITA May11 Apr13 Mar23 Mar11 Feb22 (hester haley)BECKMAN ALICE 117 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  LUCY'S CAKES FLY Apr23 Feb15 Jan18 Oct01 Jul24 (claire al)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 19% 4.10    
5  SONADOR May20 May02 Apr13 Sep25 Sep16 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 117 10.00    
6  T MAX May13 Feb11 Nov26 Oct30 Sep15 (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 118 3.00 46% 1.20    
7  BEL ARIA Apr16 Mar31 Mar09 Feb16 Feb02 (wong jonath)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.50 10% 9.30    
SCR  ACACIAHELPME May02 Mar08 Jan20 Dec30 Aug14 (shirer mat)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00    
9  LAMASCO Mar26 Mar08 Feb01 Jan18 Dec23 (gutierrez)TORRES A 124 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.