Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Sunday - April 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/1/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/1/6)-(3/2/1/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(3/5/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6)-(3/5/7)-(4/7/5/14/9) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
KEE-2   WIN (3/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/7)-(3/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
KEE-3   WIN (4/7/5/14/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/7/5/14/9)-(4/7/5/14/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/7/5/14/9)-(4/7/5/14/9)-(4/7/5/14/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/7/5/14/9)-(5/6/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/7/5/14/9)-(5/6/3)-(1/4/8/2/7) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-4   WIN (5/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/3)-(5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/3)-(1/4/8/2/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/6/3)-(1/4/8/2/7)-(7/3/9/1/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-5   WIN (1/4/8/2/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/8/2/7)-(1/4/8/2/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/8/2/7)-(1/4/8/2/7)-(1/4/8/2/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/4/8/2/7)-(7/3/9/1/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/4/8/2/7)-(7/3/9/1/6)-(6/4/8/12/7) 125 $1.00 $125 
KEE-6   WIN (7/3/9/1/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/3/9/1/6)-(7/3/9/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/3/9/1/6)-(7/3/9/1/6)-(7/3/9/1/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/3/9/1/6)-(6/4/8/12/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (7/3/9/1/6)-(6/4/8/12/7)-(7/3/4) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-7   WIN (6/4/8/12/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/4/8/12/7)-(6/4/8/12/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/4/8/12/7)-(6/4/8/12/7)-(6/4/8/12/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/4/8/12/7)-(7/3/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/4/8/12/7)-(7/3/4)-(1/4/6/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-8   WIN (7/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/4)-(7/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3/4)-(7/3/4)-(7/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/3/4)-(1/4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
KEE-9   WIN (1/4/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/6/7)-(1/4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/6/7)-(1/4/6/7)-(1/4/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/16/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMERICAN PURE Mar12 Jan28 Dec18 Nov03 Oct23 (schultz lindsa)ROSARIO JOEL 118 1.60 ★    
2  SURF AND TURF Oct10 Sep08 Aug23 Aug02 Jul18 (londono )RODRIGUEZ A 113 12.00 9% 9.80    
3  RICOCHET Mar04 Jan07 Nov27 Sep05 Jul30 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.00 60% 0.70    
4  BEAVER HAT Mar30 Mar09 Feb11 Jan14 Dec26 (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 3.50    
5  PICASSO Jan22 Dec29 Jun24 May20 Apr20 (walden william)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
6  MASAI MAN Feb18 Feb07 Jan27 Jan19 Jan09 (cash l)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  SEA TO SUCCESS Feb25 Jan28 May29 Apr23 Mar12 (robertson )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 20.00    
8  PURE PANIC Mar18 Feb25 Jan28 Dec31 Dec14 (brownfield c)RAMOS D 118 8.00    
 
KEE-2   04/16/2023 7920ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUMINIST Mar30 Mar18 Mar02 Feb01 Jan12 (estvanko ric)RAMOS D 118 30.00    
2  CECILITA Feb16 May28 Apr28 Mar12 Jan15 (rubley kelly)ROCCO S 118 4.50    
3  ELLE EST FORTE Mar05 Jan05 Oct27 Sep25 Sep03 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 30% 2.30    
4  I'M SO SORRY Feb26 Dec31 Dec04 Mar17   (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00    
5  KISS YOU LATER (IRE)         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 118 1.80 26% 2.90    
6  LIVY B Mar15 Feb16 Jan19 Oct14 Jul24 (leonard )RODRIGUEZ A 113 20.00    
7  SINFILTRE Mar03 Jan14 Dec15 Sep17   (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 18% 4.40    
 
KEE-3   04/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHACKLESFLY         (romans dale)MACHADO LUAN 125 30.00    
2  INVASIVE Mar17 Feb15 Jan19 Dec11 Nov23 (kendall elise)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
SCR  MO SNOW Mar17 Jan21 Sep08     (londono )RODRIGUEZ A 113 30.00    
4  DOM GERVASIO Mar24 Feb01 Dec21 Nov30 Oct06 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 125 6.00 30% 2.30    
5  KICK ROCKS KID Mar23 Mar11 Feb17 Feb04 Jan20 (adams nancy )BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 8.00 15% 5.50    
SCR  MANCHESTER Mar16 Mar02 Feb16 Jan26   (engler jeff)LANERIE J 125 3.50    
7  HOOEY         (ward wesley)SANCHEZ JEFFREY 125 4.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  DONEGAL DANNY Jan27 Dec29       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50    
9  BOOYAH Apr01 Mar04 Aug21 Jul22 Jun30 (bright der)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  MIDWAY MIRACLE Feb09 Jan26 Jan12 Dec30 May30 (lucas wayne)AYALA ISAIAS 125 30.00    
11  CHOWMEIN Mar15 Feb22 Feb03 Jan20   (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
12  SILVESTRE Jan28 Dec30 Nov30 Nov09 Oct28 (cambray ignacio)CRUZ JOHN 125 30.00    
SCR  IN LIEU Feb24 Feb02 Jan19     (wong jonath)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00    
14  HOCUS (GB)         (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 125 12.00 7% 12.70    
SCR  BLUEGRASS LUTE Mar23 Feb10 Dec10 Nov13   (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 20.00    
SCR  KVETCHING MAW         (leitch dan)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
 
KEE-4   04/16/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($140K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY HIDEAWAY Sep13 Aug11 Jun22     (wilkes r)ORTIZ JR 118 15.00    
2  GAM'S MISSION Mar11 Jun05 Apr23 Mar26   (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
3  BREEZE RIDER Apr29 Apr02 Feb26 Jan30 Jan08 (manley steve)BAIRD T 118 3.50 17% 4.80    
4  HENRIETTA TOPHAM Nov05 Oct08 Sep10 Aug07 Jul14 (mulcahy g)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 4.00    
5  BUBBLE ROCK Nov25 Oct28 Sep13 Apr02 Mar05 (cox h)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.00 28% 2.60    
6  FREEDOM SPEAKS Oct22 Sep13 Aug19 Jun18 May12 (rodriguez darien)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 25% 3.00    
 
KEE-5   04/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REMUDA Jan15 Nov23 Apr23 Mar27   (harty eoin)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 35% 1.90    
2  TOP OF THE CHARTS Aug14 Jun25 May28     (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 6% 16.10    
3  LET MY PEOPLE GO Dec02 Nov17 Nov04 Oct14 Sep22 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
4  PEACEFUL WATERS Oct14 Aug20 Jul23 Jun19 Feb19 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 18% 4.50    
5  EMBRACE (IRE) Nov23 Oct08 Sep22 Sep06 Aug07 (drury j)ROSARIO JOEL null      
6  FITZPATRICK Feb25 Jun19 May21 Apr28 Mar05 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00    
7  DIVINE LEADER Feb17 Feb09 Dec30 Nov12 Oct15 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
8  UNDER OATH Mar04 Aug24 Jul23 Apr16 Mar12 (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50 16% 5.10    
9  FLINT RIDGE Feb21 Jan15 Dec08 Oct28 Sep22 (sharp joe)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 3.50    
10  MINNESOTA READY Mar16 Jan26 Dec11 Nov09 Sep03 (pessin l)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
 
KEE-6   04/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MALIBU SPRINGS         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.00 17% 4.90    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MARQUEE MISS by COWBOY CAL)
2  BRIGADE COMMANDER         (stewart dallas)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of INSPEIGHT OF US by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  MAGIC TAP         (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 120 3.50 20% 4.00    
  (by TAPIT out of AMERICAN STORY by GHOSTZAPPER)
4  PAPA ALDEN         (kerrick la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 20.00    
  (by STORMY ATLANTIC out of RIDINGWITHTHEDEVIL by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
5  DELIBERATION         (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of WITHOUT THOUGHT by SMART STRIKE)
6  ARNO         (knippenberg )RAMOS D 120 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of MAJESTIC MOVE by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
7  ZED Oct23 Sep24 Sep11     (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 120 5.00 23% 3.30    
  (by ARROGATE out of SHANE'S GIRLFRIEND by ADIOS CHARLIE)
8  SAUDI CROWN         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.50    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of NEW NARRATION by TAPIT)
9  WILD THINKER Mar02         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 18% 4.70    
  (by LORD NELSON out of INVESTED PROSPECT by ABRAAJ)
10  BRITERDAYZAHEAD Sep03         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 8.00    
  (by GIRVIN out of PURE GREY by TOO MUCH BLING)
 
KEE-7   04/16/2023 3630ft TURF RC11 GOOD Palisades Purse ($250K) 3 ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWO OF A KIND Mar18 Feb04 Jan01 Jun09 May04 (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
  (by OVERANALYZE out of FREUD'S IRISH MISS by FREUD)
2  CHIRINGO Mar11 Dec11 Nov05 Oct13 Aug07 (weaver george)ORTIZ JR 118 20.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of STREET LOVE by STREET BOSS)
3  FADETHENOISE Aug19 Jul16 Jun09     (maker mic)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of HEY PAIGE by STAY THIRSTY)
4  CRISPY CAT (GB) Mar25 Mar10       (delgado jorg)LOPEZ PASCACIO 123 8.00 18% 4.60    
  (by ARDAD out of MARA GREY by AZAMOUR (IRE))
5  GASLIGHT DANCER Nov04 Oct09 Sep03 Aug13   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of RAINDROPS DROPTOPS by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
6  PRIVATE CREED Feb18 Jan28 Nov04 Oct09 Sep08 (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 123 4.00 29% 2.40    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of SOUTH ANDROS by SKY MESA)
7  BUSHIDO Oct08 Sep04       (banach d)SAEZ LUIS 123 5.00 5% 18.20    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of BURMA ROAD by STREET BOSS)
8  NO NAY HUDSON (IRE) Nov05 Oct09 Aug19 Jun09 Apr28 (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 4.50 16% 5.10    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of RAW SILK by MALIBU MOON)
9  STORM DADDY Mar09 Feb11 Dec09     (elliott mic)FRANKLIN MALCOM 118 30.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of STORM STAR by STORM BIRD)
10  GOLDEN NUGGET Mar25 Feb19 Jan21 Dec16   (walsh brendan )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 12.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of TIPPING POINT by REGAL REMARK)
SCR  NEW YORK THUNDER Dec30 Nov27       (delgado jorg)MORELOS E 118 8.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of START OVER by MIDSHIPMAN)
12  DAMON'S MOUND Sep17 Aug13 Jul02     (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00 8% 11.10    
  (by GIRVIN out of SAN ANTONIO STROLL by STROLL)
13  OLAZABAL Mar25 Jan19 Jan01 Dec09 Oct30 (foster eric)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of DERBY EVE by TIZNOW)
 
KEE-8   04/16/2023 4620ft DIRT RC13 FAST Beaumont Purse ($400K) 3 F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHOPLIFTER Feb25 Nov04 Sep17 Aug14 Jun29 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of NEW SHAKER by BERNSTEIN)
2  SHE'S ON THE ROCKS Mar11 Feb01       (gorostieta cirilo)MCKEE J 118 10.00    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of NOTHING BUT HEART by OFFICER)
3  STONEWALL STAR Feb18 Jan22 Dec30 Nov20 Oct17 (de horacio)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 34% 2.00    
  (by FLATTER out of JONATA by PROUD CITIZEN)
4  INTERPOLATE Feb05 Jan03 Oct14 Aug14   (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50 9% 10.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of KEESHA by TAPIT)
5  FUN AND FEISTY Mar04 Oct30 Oct07 Sep17 Aug13 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of GROUSE GRIND by FIRST SAMURAI)
6  OPUS FORTY TWO Feb11 Jan14 Dec03 Oct28 Sep17 (delacour a)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of LAQUESTA by LEMON DROP KID)
7  KEY OF LIFE (IRE) Mar25 Feb11 Nov26 Oct28 Oct07 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 1.00 34% 1.90    
  (by DANCE OF LIFE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
KEE-9   04/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KNOWING GLANCE Mar10 Jul31 Jun24 Apr22 Feb06 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.20 36% 1.80    
2  FABRICATE Sep21 Aug20 Jul31 Jun29 May21 (fadlovich meg)ORTIZ JR 124 10.00    
SCR  LAMASCO Mar26 Mar08 Feb01 Jan18 Dec23 (gutierrez faustio)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00    
4  SOLID TUNE Feb03 Nov25 Oct22 Oct03 Sep08 (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50 21% 3.70    
5  MA CHERIE Mar23 Mar03 Jan05 Dec15 Oct29 (cohn g)GILLIGAN JACK 124 12.00    
6  BEL ARIA Mar31 Mar09 Feb16 Feb02 Jan11 (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 124 10.00 19% 4.20    
7  BOUDOIR BURLESQUE Mar28 Mar16 Aug09 Jul18 Jun08 (decker anna)MOJICA JR 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  LILLY CHROME Mar15 Jan02 Nov27 Nov14 Nov01 (acev)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 50.00    
9  SUPER CAT LADY Nov09 Sep29 Aug29     (tomlinson micha)LANERIE J 124 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.