Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 25, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/25/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHISKEY DOUBLE Oct25 Oct04 Aug21 Jul16 Jun23 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 13% 6.80    
2  TWO BY TWO Oct21 Sep07 Jul31 Jul07 Jun19 (maker michael )ROSARIO JOEL 121 2.50 19% 4.30    
3  GIROLAMO'S ATTACK Sep25 Aug28 Aug08 Jun03 Apr02 (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 35% 1.80    
4  FAN CLUB Oct21 Sep24 Aug06 Jun18 May07 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00    
5  SPA CITY Sep29 Sep01 Jul09 Jun23 Apr22 (reed r)LEON SONNY 121 2.00 ★    
6  CONTACT TRACING Oct13 Sep01 Aug02 Jul21 Jun11 (leonard georg)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00 ★    
 
CD-2   11/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) Oct29 Sep29 Aug21 Aug07 Jun11 (meah m)DIAZ RENE 118 5.00 ★    
2  WILL'S SECRET Oct29 Sep16 Jul03 Jun12   (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.00 29% 2.40    
3  GRAYSONSMACHO GAL Oct10 Aug14 Jul08     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 2.50 41% 1.50    
SCR  REPUBLIQUE Oct22 Sep25 Aug25 Jul02 May29 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 ★    
5  CANDY RAID Nov12 Jul09 Jun04 May06 Apr02 (desormeaux ke)LANERIE J 118 3.50 ★    
 
CD-3   11/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IRONSIDES Oct27 Oct07 Aug30 Jul30 Jul02 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
2  TALKSCHEAP Nov09 Oct03 Sep18 Aug30   (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 30% 2.40    
SCR  EIGHT STRAIGHT Nov16 Nov03 Sep21     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 35% 1.90    
4  RANSAM PAYNTER Sep18         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
5  OUT OF ALCATRAZ Oct22 Aug18       (shorter aaron)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00 ★    
6  PRINCE OF ROSES Oct20 Sep25 Aug09     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.00 ★    
7  RIVER BOY Oct23 Oct05 Sep11     (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
8  LED TASSO Nov19 Oct22 Sep22 Aug28 Jul30 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 ★    
 
CD-4   11/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHIP IT Nov11 Jan14       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 55% 0.80    
2  GIMME CANDY Oct19 May09 Apr02 Jan21   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50 ★    
3  LANTERN'S CANDY Nov03 Oct10 Sep16 Aug24 Jul23 (schultz lindsa)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 3.00 ★    
4  HAL'S DREAM Mar05 Feb05       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 15% 5.70    
5  WICKED WONDER Oct29 Jul16 Mar16 Feb06 Jan14 (pei)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 118 6.00    
6  INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU Nov11 Oct11 Aug25 Aug11   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  MONOCACY Nov18 Nov03 Oct20 Sep29 Sep16 (king l)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
8  INSPEIGHTFUL Nov10 Sep15 Aug26     (wiggins )SANTANA JR 121 12.00    
 
CD-5   11/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEYBLADER Nov02 Oct08 Sep29 Aug27 Jun26 (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 19% 4.20    
2  ALEXIS N NIKO Oct29 Sep22 Aug21 Jul24 Jun24 (thurman)DE CRUZ 120 15.00    
3  MR CREED Oct16 Sep18       (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50 30% 2.30    
4  DEEP STATE Oct27 Sep28 Sep08 Aug06 Jul09 (lynch bri)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 3.00 20% 3.90    
5  LORD CAPTAIN Oct27 Oct05 Aug30 Aug11 Jun25 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
6  ONE COOL DUDE Oct19 Sep12 Aug30 Aug11 Mar04 (sanner daniel)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00 ★    
7  CONSPIRACY FACT Nov13 Oct12 Sep17 Jul01 Jun18 (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 ★    
8  FORT DEFIANCE Sep05 Jul15 Jun12 Jan14   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
9  PAID IN FULL Nov02 Oct12 Sep24 Apr02 Jan29 (hartlage g)JOHNSON M 120 10.00    
10  COASTAL CHAOS Oct27 Oct12 Sep29 Aug23 Jul30 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
 
CD-6   11/25/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLASSIC FAREWELL Oct27 Sep17       (schultz lindsa)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00    
2  SINGING EMMA Nov16         (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 119 5.00    
3  LADY STRUM         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 ★    
4  MEAN SUE Oct26         (mckeever andrew)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 35% 1.80    
5  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF Sep16 Sep03 Jul29 Jul04 Jun17 (leonard ge)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00    
6  SENSE OF HEART         (lovell michelle)DIAZ RENE 114 10.00 ★    
7  TIMBAVATI         (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 ★    
8  SLOAN STREET         (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
9  LILY'S CREED Oct26 Sep23 Aug30     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 40% 1.50    
10  CATHERINE BLAZE Jul15 Jul04 Jun17 May26   (leonard)DE CRUZ 119 15.00    
 
CD-7   11/25/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIGER MOON Apr07 Mar04 Feb18 Jan08   (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
2  SPEED BOAT Nov03 Oct06 Sep16 Aug31 Aug11 (hug)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  NINETIES COUNTRY Nov03 Oct19 Sep07 Jul23 Jul03 (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.00 17% 5.00    
4  HOMETOWN HERO Nov03 Oct07 Sep10 Aug19 Jul03 (wong jon)SANTANA JR 123 3.00 38% 1.60    
5  ONCOMING TRAIN Nov02 Sep28 Jul03 Jun05 Apr23 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 125 5.00    
6  TRIGGER HAPPY Nov10 May21 May01 Apr16 Jan07 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
7  EL FRANCO Nov03 Oct12 Oct01 Sep18 Jul17 (norris mike)BEJARANO R 123 20.00    
8  MR. THUNDERSTRUCK Oct28 Sep11 Jul11 Jun27 May23 (von don)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 8.00 6% 17.00    
9  ATRAS Oct20 Sep28 Aug26 Jul04 Apr23 (barkley ja)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 12% 7.40    
10  OUT WORK'N Nov15 Sep28 Sep20 Sep06 Aug22 (calvo kelsie)MOJICA JR 125 20.00    
 
CD-8   11/25/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUE ELLEN MISHKIN Nov06 Oct15 Jul27 May14   (shirer mat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 11% 8.00    
SCR  HONEY RUN Oct02 Sep10 Aug27 Jun29 Jun03 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50    
3  WATERS OF MEROM Nov16 Nov03 Oct21 Jul17 Jun12 (vasquez germa)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
4  SHEZZ KOLDAZICE Nov03 Oct13 Sep21 Aug30 Aug19 (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
5  SAINT EROS GIRL Nov03 Sep03 Aug06 Jun26 May20 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 120 8.00 15% 5.70    
6  LEGERITY Oct21 Oct02 Aug20 Jul03 Jun17 (west w)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
7  SOLID TUNE Oct22 Oct03 Sep08 Aug15 Jul03 (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STRONG SILENT         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 3.00 44% 1.30    
SCR  SUPER CAT LADY Nov09 Sep29 Aug29     (tomlinson micha)LANERIE J 120 15.00    
10  CANT BE TOUCHED Nov03 Oct02 Sep18 Aug19 Mar11 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 113 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-9   11/25/2022 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Grade II Stake/Handicap Purse ($300K) 3 F PT- 4:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAKE A STAND Oct21 Sep24 Aug14 Jul23 Jun19 (oliver )DE CRUZ 118 20.00    
  (by WILL TAKE CHARGE out of CANDY CRUSH by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
2  SHE'S GONE Oct15 Sep10 Jul24 Jun22 May14 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 ★    
  (by CURLIN out of SHE'S NOT HERE by STREET CRY (IRE))
3  LADY PUCHI Oct28 Oct14 Sep06 Aug06 Jul14 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ANNABIRD by FLOWER ALLEY)
4  BUBBLE ROCK Oct28 Sep13 Apr02 Mar05 Feb12 (cox h)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.50 ★    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of REEF POINT by BON POINT (GB))
5  SWEET LADY IVANKA Nov10 Oct15 Sep17 Aug07 Jul17 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 15.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE (ARG) out of LADY SERENA by BERNARDINI)
6  CALIFORNIA ANGEL Oct28 Oct15 Sep05 Mar12 Feb19 (leonard ge)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 37% 1.70    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of SEA MONA by TIZ WONDERFUL)
7  LOVELY PRINCESS Oct27 Oct02 Sep03 Aug14 Jul23 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 16% 5.10    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of PRINCESS MARIAH by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
8  FANCY MARTINI Oct20 Sep05 Jul16 May14 Mar26 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
  (by KLIMT out of MISS CANADA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  HAVE A GOOD DAY (IRE) Oct16 Sep13 Aug11     (delgado gust)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00    
  (by ADAAY out of BLACK MEYEDEN by BLACK MINNALOUSHE)
10  QUALITY STAR Oct21 Sep08 Aug14 Jul06 May29 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00 18% 4.60    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of ESSTADISTA by ESSAYONS)
11  JOYFUL APPLAUSE Nov03 Oct10 Sep14 Aug18 May29 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of GONE THEATRICAL by THEATRICAL)
 
CD-10   11/25/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GULFSTREAM WAY Oct08 Sep17 Aug13 Jul10 Jun19 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  GRAPHIC DETAIL Apr02 Feb05 Jan01     (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
3  KUPUNA Mar26 Feb19 Jan15     (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00    
4  APPEAL DENIED Nov04 Sep22 Aug13 Jun19   (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
5  DR. PERRY Sep30 Aug20       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EMPERADOR Oct14 Jan22       (hiles rick)LANERIE J 120 20.00    
7  ANGKOR Oct14 May30       (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 12.00 ★    
8  CALL ME FAST Nov04 Oct08 Sep18 Aug13 Jul16 (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 120 3.00 28% 2.60    
9  LEGENDARY LORE Apr23 Mar05 Feb11 Jan07   (morey william)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
10  MILLIKEN May04 Apr10 Feb26     (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 120 6.00 19% 4.30    
11  SPARTAN ARMY Nov04 Sep22       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
12  ZIPPIN GIGI Nov02 Sep30 Sep03 Jun30 Jun12 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00    
SCR  AMERICAN ICON Nov16 Nov09 Oct14 Sep17 Feb04 (vasquez germa)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
14  SEAL BEACH Nov04 Oct08 Sep30 Sep03 Aug17 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
15  MAC'S TIME Nov04         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
SCR  CLASSIC MOMENT Nov09 Oct14 Mar27 Feb27 Jan29 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
 
CD-11   11/25/2022 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade I Stake/Handicap Purse ($750K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROXY Jul02 Jun04 Apr23 Mar26 Feb25 (stidham michae)ROSARIO JOEL 125 3.50 12% 7.00    
  (by TAPIT out of PANTY RAID by INCLUDE)
SCR  TRADEMARK Oct20 Aug26 Aug14 Jul09 May07 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 122 20.00    
  (by UPSTART out of CREATIVE TRICK by CREATIVE CAUSE)
3  INJUNCTION Oct01 Aug06 Jul04 Jun05 May07 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 125 6.00 ★    
  (by SKIPSHOT out of VALID VALENCIA by NORTHERN AFLEET)
4  RICH STRIKE Nov05 Oct01 Aug27 Jun11 May07 (reed r)LEON SONNY 122 2.00 6% 15.20    
  (by KEEN ICE out of GOLD STRIKE by SMART STRIKE)
5  FULSOME Oct29 Oct01 Aug06 Jun25 May06 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 125 6.00 26% 2.90    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of FLOURISH by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  LAST SAMURAI Oct29 Aug26 Aug06 Jul02 Apr23 (lukas wa)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 10.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of LADY SAMURI by FIRST SAMURAI)
7  WEST WILL POWER Oct29 Sep28 Aug06     (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 125 2.50 32% 2.20    
  (by BERNARDINI out of WILD PROMISES by WILD EVENT)
 
CD-12   11/25/2022 4950ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BROADBAND Oct21 Sep14 Aug13 Jul08 Jun18 (taylor brent)COURT K 122 15.00    
2  STAR TABLE Mar05 Feb11 Jan14     (combs bentley)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00 19% 4.10    
3  SWEET CURALINA         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 12.00    
4  TWENTYTWENTY HOAX Nov10 Oct28 Oct01 Aug20 Aug06 (king l)CANNON DECLAN 124 5.00 ★    
5  ROYAL TAKE CHARGE         (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00 ★    
6  MO HAPPY Oct15 Oct01       (thompson bo)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 15.00    
7  SHADY ROAD Nov06 Sep14 Jul23 Jun03   (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 122 1.60 53% 0.90    
8  OFF THE CHARTS Feb27         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 ★    
9  AWESOME ALLY VEE Oct26 Aug12 Jul22 Jun24   (lau)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.