Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Thursday - December 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/4)-(6/5/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4)-(6/5/4)-(4/11/9/1/3) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
MVR-2   WIN (6/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/4)-(6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/4)-(4/11/9/1/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/5/4)-(4/11/9/1/3)-(1/4/2/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
MVR-3   WIN (4/11/9/1/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/11/9/1/3)-(4/11/9/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/11/9/1/3)-(4/11/9/1/3)-(4/11/9/1/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/11/9/1/3)-(1/4/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/11/9/1/3)-(1/4/2/5)-(10/7/11/2/9) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
MVR-4   WIN (1/4/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/2/5)-(1/4/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/2/5)-(1/4/2/5)-(1/4/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/2/5)-(10/7/11/2/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/4/2/5)-(10/7/11/2/9)-(7/5/3/8) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-5   WIN (10/7/11/2/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/7/11/2/9)-(10/7/11/2/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/7/11/2/9)-(10/7/11/2/9)-(10/7/11/2/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/7/11/2/9)-(7/5/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/7/11/2/9)-(7/5/3/8)-(2/9/5/6) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-6   WIN (7/5/3/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/3/8)-(7/5/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/3/8)-(7/5/3/8)-(7/5/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/3/8)-(2/9/5/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/5/3/8)-(2/9/5/6)-(6/5/8/2/1) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-7   WIN (2/9/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/9/5/6)-(2/9/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/9/5/6)-(2/9/5/6)-(2/9/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/9/5/6)-(6/5/8/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
MVR-8   WIN (6/5/8/2/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/5/8/2/1)-(6/5/8/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/5/8/2/1)-(6/5/8/2/1)-(6/5/8/2/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   12/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  XERXES Nov29         (johnson jenn)GONZALEZ KEVIN 122 4.00 25% 3.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of SWEETSONGOFTHENILE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
2  OVER MY LIMIT         (short thomas)BARBARAN ERIK 122 6.00    
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of FOLLOW BOURBON by NOT BOURBON)
3  MIDNIGHT VOYAGE         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 122 2.00 27% 2.70    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of LELA by WILLIAMSTOWN)
4  SIR MASON Nov29 Oct27 Sep30 Sep07 Aug17 (mo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 2.50 22% 3.50    
  (by ST PATRICK'S DAY out of AZASECRET by DISCREET CAT)
5  CUSSIN N FUSSIN Nov27 Nov07 Oct23 Oct03 Sep05 (uri)GIRON ALEJANDRO 122 8.00    
  (by OM out of STARLET SKY by SKYWALKER)
SCR  DESTINO Sep06 Aug25 Jul27 Jul15 Jun03 (morales )FERNANDEZ R 122 10.00    
  (by MASTERY out of PINCHBECK by MINESHAFT)
7  SPYRO         (johnson jennif)GILBERT KYLE 122 15.00    
  (by GIRVIN out of SOCIAL SECURITY by NOTEBOOK)
8  INCITATUSWAY Oct03 May07 May01     (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 122 20.00    
  (by DESTIN out of HAPPY RETREAT by FEEL THE POWER)
 
MVR-2   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 2 F PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCESS ELLIE Sep27         (greenhill jeff)AVILES YAN 120 8.00    
SCR  ARTISTIC LANEY Nov14 Jul22 Jun29     (west m)BRACHO A 120 5.00    
3  PRETTY PATTY Nov14 Aug12 Jun29     (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 120 6.00    
4  IMA MOM Nov28         (vazquez ivan)PAUCAR E 122 10.00 11% 7.90    
5  MY GIRL KEW Nov14         (maker michael )HOUGHTON D 120 1.80 23% 3.40    
6  OFFICIALLY YOURS Nov29 Nov14       (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 2.50 46% 1.20    
7  OH GLORIOUS DAY Nov28 Nov13 Oct28 Oct12 Sep25 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 122 8.00    
 
MVR-3   12/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($11.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET BELEN Nov28 Oct04 Sep20 Aug29 Jul26 (romero oscar)REYES FRANK 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  GRAND PRIZE Nov28 Jul10 Jun12 May22 May09 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 124 10.00    
3  LA LIMA Nov28 Nov20 Nov07 Oct24 Oct10 (urieta johan)HALDAR J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  J P'S GLADYS Nov28 Nov09 Aug01 Jul09 Sep27 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 4.50 64% 0.60    
5  WAY TO FIRE Dec03 Oct23 Jun20 Jun05 May23 (poole jami )BRACHO AUGUSTIN 124 10.00    
6  WATERLOO SUNSET Nov13 Oct25 Oct16 Sep25 Aug21 (fiesman robe)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 15.00    
7  FLYING BUSINESS Nov28 Nov09 Sep27 Aug23 Jul26 (hurley l)GONZALEZ A 124 20.00    
8  SABELLE Nov28 Sep27 Jul26 Jun26 May22 (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 8.00    
9  SHELLEY'S GEM Oct25 Aug23 Jul04 May06 Apr24 (johnson l)MCKEE J 124 4.00 5% 19.00    
10  BASTET Nov22 Nov08 Oct24 Oct02 Sep05 (bernardini ja)BARBARAN ERIK 124 8.00    
11  KAY BEE GEE Nov29 Nov09 Oct11 Feb16 Jan09 (cline robert)ROSARIO L 126 6.00 7% 13.90    
12  SUMMER STORM Nov12 Oct29 Oct03 Aug12 Jul25 (rice anthony)TAPARA BRANDON 124 5.00    
 
MVR-4   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 F PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMPUTE THIS Nov29 Oct30 Oct11     (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 122 2.00 58% 0.70    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of I LIKE IT by HENNY HUGHES)
2  COLLECT GOLD         (diehl cand)SMITH DIOGDINABI 122 3.00 9% 10.60    
  (by COLLECTED out of MEADOWLEE by MEADOWLAKE)
3  CURLIN PEARLS Nov29 Oct30 Oct11 Sep25 Aug15 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 122 5.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of CRYPTOCANDIAC by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
4  MISS SPRINGSTEEN Nov29 Nov14 Oct30 Sep25 Aug12 (ha)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 4.00 13% 6.90    
  (by GORMLEY out of MELANIE MAY by ANIMAL KINGDOM)
5  SPOOKY LITTLE GIRL Nov29 Oct30 Sep27 Aug30   (calderon)FERNANDEZ R 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of EYE'LL BE FINE by MONTBROOK)
6  SHAMANS IMAGE Nov14 Sep27 Sep13     (barker w)AVILES YAN 122 20.00    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of LADY MONAVI by MONDAVI)
7  DERBY DAY KISS Nov14 Oct30       (cline r)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 8.00    
  (by KLIMT out of DERBY DAY STORM by HABAYEB)
8  POINTOF ATTRACTION Nov14         (fad)GIRON ALEJANDRO 122 10.00    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of PRINCESS ADELYN by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
MVR-5   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAXIMIZER Dec06 Nov21 Oct31 Oct21 Sep12 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 124 8.00    
2  MUTUAL CONFIDENCE Nov02 Sep23 Jul26 May19 Apr27 (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 4.50 5% 17.70    
3  BLACK CANDY Nov25 Nov06 Oct28 Oct11 Sep17 (blackhurst )OLIVEROS CHARLE 124 10.00    
4  BEACH FRONT Nov29 Sep16 Aug23 Aug12 Aug02 (haehn r)REYES FRANK 124 5.00    
5  CALL WEST Nov29 Nov15 Nov06 Oct21 Sep28 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 124 20.00    
6  UNCLEJACKOMO Dec06 Nov15 Oct31 Sep28 Sep13 (fau)GIRON ALEJANDRO 124 20.00    
7  MY TWO AUNT JOANS Dec06 Nov08 Oct31 Oct03 Sep18 (mahan josep)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 4.00 25% 3.10    
8  NYOMAN Nov15 Nov01 Oct03 Aug30 Aug06 (villa francisco)AVILES YAN 124 20.00    
9  KHOPILOT Sep20 Aug28 Aug15 Jul23 Jul10 (guciardo rober)DIAZ I 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  GATES OF HEAVEN Nov22 Oct30 Sep27 Jul05 Jun19 (treharne dave)BRACHO A 124 3.50 35% 1.90    
11  T MONEY Nov22 Aug22 Jul11 Jun07 Dec27 (johnson l)MCKEE J 126 6.00 13% 6.90    
 
MVR-6   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($21.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OHIO PLAYER Dec04 Nov06 Oct09 Sep18 Aug28 (brown glenr)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 6.00    
2  WILDCAT BILL Nov06 Oct13 Sep19 Aug07 Jul12 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 124 5.00    
3  MUTINY Sep25 Aug30 Aug03 Jul13 Jun19 (skerrett jef)HALDAR J 124 3.50 5% 18.40    
4  OL' NED Nov27 Oct04 Sep06 Jul08 Jun21 (cline c)PAUCAR E 124 8.00    
5  UPGRADE AL Sep06 Jul14 Jun21 Jun01 Jan02 (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 4.50 19% 4.30    
6  PRIVATE DRIVE Nov27 Nov20 Oct28 Oct03 Sep11 (guidry ter)COLINA ALEJANDRO 124 6.00    
7  CALBOYZEKE Jun07 May06 Nov19 Oct29 Sep15 (ibarra marco)BARBARAN ERIK 124 4.00 54% 0.90    
8  HENRY THE CAT Nov20 Oct28 Oct06 Jul31 Jul11 (meyers shane)AVILES YAN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
MVR-7   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLEVELAND POWER Nov22 Aug28 Aug15 Jul23 Jun26 (poole jam)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 124 20.00    
2  AINT NO BANDLEADER Mar29 Feb27 Feb16 Dec30 Nov30 (estvanko richard)AVILES YAN 123 3.00 24% 3.10    
3  LITTLE TOY GUNS Nov29 Oct24 Sep13 Aug30 Jul25 (tooley jennif)BRACHO A 123 5.00    
4  STARS N SPACE Nov08 Oct21 Sep25 Sep13 Aug22 (overholt pau)HALDAR J 124 4.00    
5  SMOOCHER Nov29 Oct30 Aug10 Jul22 May11 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 123 8.00 22% 3.50    
6  DASH OF FIRE Nov14 Nov01 Oct04 Sep14 Sep01 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  COLOR BEARER Nov14 Oct24 Oct02 Sep13 Aug30 (skerrett jeffrey)RIVERA R 123 3.50    
8  JIM'S RIVER RUNNER Nov22 Nov08 Oct24 Oct06 Sep14 (ramos fr)FERNANDEZ R 125 6.00    
9  ANIMO ROBERTO Nov29 Oct30 Sep07 Aug24 Aug10 (tumblin andr)BERRIOS HECTOR 123 10.00 22% 3.50    
 
MVR-8   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED COMET Nov29 Nov15 Nov08 Oct30 Oct21 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  SWING STATE Nov14 Oct12 Sep19 Aug31 Aug14 (trevino ste)SEVERINO VICTOR 123 15.00 7% 13.70    
3  TEQUILA FLATS Nov20 Nov08 Oct21 Sep08 Aug30 (ramos fr)FERNANDEZ R 124 20.00    
4  BAD BOY BOOGIE Nov16 Oct25 Oct03 Sep21 Aug31 (romero oscar)DIAZ I 123 8.00    
5  SPECIALIZED Nov14 Oct30 Sep27 Aug31 Aug09 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 123 4.00 28% 2.50    
6  LUCK OF THE CAT Aug29 Oct07 Jul26     (drury jr)MCKEE J 124 1.20 30% 2.30    
7  PALACE TEMPTATION Nov14 Nov01 Sep30 Sep21 Sep09 (faulkner rod)BERRIOS HECTOR 123 20.00    
8  SOMEKINDAFUHRY Nov14 Jul28 Jun21     (cline c)RIVERA R 124 3.50 15% 5.90    
9  CONSTITUTION COAL Nov27 Nov16 Oct22 Sep29 Sep21 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 123 20.00    
10  ROLLIN SO PERFECT Dec04 Nov08 Aug30 Aug01 Jun14 (szczepansk)COLINA ALEJANDRO 124 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.