Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - November 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (4/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/5)-(4/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/5)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/5)-(3/1/4)-(5/8/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-2   WIN (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/4)-(5/8/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4)-(5/8/1)-(1/2/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-3   WIN (5/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/1)-(5/8/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/8/1)-(5/8/1)-(5/8/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/8/1)-(1/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/8/1)-(1/2/5)-(11/10/8/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-4   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(11/10/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(11/10/8/7)-(6/4/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-5   WIN (11/10/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/10/8/7)-(11/10/8/1/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (11/10/8/7)-(11/10/8/1/7)-(11/10/8/1/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (11/10/8/7)-(6/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (11/10/8/7)-(6/4/1)-(9/7/10/4/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-6   WIN (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/1)-(6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/1)-(9/7/10/4/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1)-(9/7/10/4/3)-(7/8/3/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-7   WIN (9/7/10/4/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/7/10/4/3)-(9/7/10/4/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/7/10/4/3)-(9/7/10/4/3)-(9/7/10/4/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/7/10/4/3)-(7/8/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/7/10/4/3)-(7/8/3/2)-(11/9/8/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-8   WIN (7/8/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/3/2)-(7/8/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/3/2)-(7/8/3/2)-(7/8/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/3/2)-(11/9/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
AQU-9   WIN (11/9/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/9/8/1)-(11/9/8/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (11/9/8/1)-(11/9/8/5/1)-(11/9/8/5/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   11/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 3UP M/F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALLEGEDLY (IRE) Jul30         (martin f)DAVIS KATIE 121 8.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of ROMANTICISM by GONE WEST)
2  DREAMING OF MO Oct19 Sep21       (martin carlos)ORTIZ JR 121 2.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of DREAMING OF YOU by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
3  TOOSHAY Oct06 Aug16 Jun03 May14 Apr30 (contessa ga)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 12.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE by AWESOME AGAIN)
4  AFRICAN WATERS Sep16         (mcgaughey cl)CASTELLANO J 121 1.60 64% 0.60    
  (by WAR FRONT out of VAULCLUSE by A.P. INDY)
5  PARIS STYLE (FR) Oct19 Sep24 Aug30 Aug18 Jul15 (mcpeek kenn)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 1.40 11% 8.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of MESEIKA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
AQU-2   11/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($41K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FACE ABARRIO Oct07 Aug26 Aug18 Jul23 Jun30 (nevin mich)RIVERA R 113 3.50 30% 2.40    
2  BUCKORTWO Oct05 Aug16 Aug10 Jun24 May19 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 122 5.00    
3  THREE ZERO Oct14 Sep16 Sep02 Jul27 Jun09 (abreu fe)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 3.00 36% 1.70    
4  BURN JAKEY BURN Nov02 Aug17 Jul08 Jul17   (brown bruce)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 15.00 6% 14.50    
5  MUDVILLE NINE Nov02 Oct08 Aug20 Jul30 Jun01 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50    
SCR  WILL BE FAMOUS Nov03 Sep22 Aug16 Apr02 Mar03 (toscano john )OLVER MADISON 112 12.00    
7  CAMM' DUKE Sep06 Aug17 Aug03 Jun09 Mar31 (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 120 10.00    
8  PLAYINGWITHMATCHES Oct20 Aug03 Jul07 May19 Apr27 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 4.50    
 
AQU-3   11/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS BOURBON Oct21         (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONNECT out of SAVASANA by SCATMANDU)
2  SAVING MEMORIES Oct29         (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 8.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of MEMORIES OF MOM by INCLUDE)
3  PRACTICAL ROYALTY Oct12         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 119 4.50    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of YANQUEE REIGN by YANKEE VICTOR)
SCR  EKWANOK Sep28 Sep01 Aug10     (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 119 2.00    
  (by MITOLE out of KATS GIRL CALA by LEMON DROP KID)
5  MUNNY GRAB Oct22 Sep01       (de hor)RIVERA R 114 3.00 63% 0.60    
  (by MUNNINGS out of ANOTHER WORLD by CARR DE NASKRA)
6  SCARLET'S DREAM Oct22         (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 119 10.00    
  (by MITOLE out of CLOUD JUMPER by SLEW'S ROYALTY)
7  H M S VICTORY Jul02         (cash j)CANCEL ERIC 119 15.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of OLD HARBOR by RAFFIE'S MAJESTY)
8  POSEIDON'S MIST Oct20 Oct01 Sep01 Jul27   (david a)RUIZ ELISEO 114 10.00 11% 8.40    
  (by POSEIDON'S WARRIOR out of MY COUNTRY by BELONG TO ME)
 
AQU-4   11/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($35K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOWZYOURCASHFLOW Oct22 Sep15 Mar03 Jan12   (rodriguez )RIVERA R 113 1.60 ★    
1A  CHASING DAYLIGHT Oct05 Aug11 Jun23 May19 Apr13 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.60 62% 0.60    
2  JOLLY MISS JILL Oct26 Sep22 Aug12 Jul16 Jun16 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 17% 4.90    
3  ANGELAS PARTY GIRL Nov04 Oct11 Sep03 Aug20 Aug11 (ryan s)CASTELLANO J 120 8.00    
SCR  MOONBOOTS Oct18 Sep19 Jun10 May25 Apr10 (morgan carla)SILVERA RUBEN 121 12.00    
5  DIAMOND COLLECTOR Oct22 Oct08 Sep22 Aug31 Aug11 (potts wayne)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  VINTAGE Aug28 Jul30 Jun04 May11 Apr15 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.50    
7  RACING COLORS Oct19 Sep22 Aug18 Aug03 Jul03 (follett norman)RUIZ ELISEO 116 20.00    
8  AMITY ISLAND Oct26 Jun16 May18 May04 Apr21 (fisher)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 8.00    
 
AQU-5   11/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOVING PICTURES Oct13 Sep17 Aug31 Aug10 Jul07 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 117 8.00 ★    
1A  CHARGER Oct15 Sep22 Jul16 Jun24 Jun11 (rodriguez rudy )RUIZ ELISEO 115 8.00    
2  TOMMY GUN Oct13 Oct02 Aug09 Jul15 Jun17 (maker mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 6.00    
SCR  ISLAND D'LITE Nov04 Oct20 Sep09 Jul29 Jul09 (magee kieron)OLVER MADISON 115 20.00    
SCR  HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH Oct19 Sep22 Jan29 Jan15 Dec15 (barker edward )LUZZI J 117 30.00    
5  HOMETOWN HERO Nov03 Sep20 Aug26 Aug19 Aug03 (morgan carla)SILVERA RUBEN 120 15.00    
6  AMANI'S EAGLE Oct13 Aug31 Aug10 Jun29 May26 (morley thomas)DAVIS DYLAN 120 10.00    
7  JOHN'S PROTEGE Oct03 Aug09 Jun21 May05 Mar03 (englehart chris)DAVIS KATIE 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  COMMERCE COMET Aug12 Jun06 Apr28 Apr14 Mar18 (rice linda)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.50 5% 19.00    
9  COUNTERFEITCURENCY Nov03 Sep09 Aug05 Jul23 Jun16 (ryan s)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 12.00    
10  SKI PATROL Oct14 Sep03 Jul28 May06 Mar17 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 6.00 17% 4.80    
11  KHAFRE Sep14 Jun02 Apr21 Feb12 Nov18 (antonacci phili)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00 56% 0.80    
12  BIG SAVE Oct13 Sep15 Apr16 Mar24 Feb23 (potts wayne)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 12.00    
 
AQU-6   11/16/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CALDO CANDY Apr01         (bond harol)RIVERA R 117 4.00 15% 5.80    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of TANGLEWOOD TALE by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  BEARY FUNNY Oct28 Aug27       (donk david)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of BEARS MEASURE by TIZNOW)
3  SCHERZANDO Oct12 Sep04 Jul14 Jun25 May29 (sciacca gary)CASTELLANO J 124 8.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of FLEET STREAK by MORE THAN READY)
4  CLEVER FOREVER Oct27 Aug27 Nov26     (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 122 2.50 29% 2.50    
  (by LAOBAN out of WAY SMARTER by SMART STRIKE)
5  CLANCY FANCY Oct28         (de horacio)ORTIZ L 122 15.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of ALTO BELLE by TRAPPE SHOT)
6  FORTUNE'S NEPHEW Dec15 May14       (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 124 3.50 30% 2.30    
  (by BELLAMY ROAD out of MAYBRY'S FORTUNE by MAYBRY'S BOY)
SCR  FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE Aug02         (englehart jerem)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00    
  (by WEEKEND HIDEAWAY out of SATURDAY BLISS by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
SCR  TWIRLING VINE Oct12 Aug17 Jul07 Jun09 Oct20 (lugovich)GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 15.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of OENOPHILE by PULPIT)
 
AQU-7   11/16/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LT. MITCHELL Sep04 Aug23 Aug09 Jul21 Jun01 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 8.00    
2  ZAPRUDER Oct13 Sep21 Aug06 Jul03 Jun01 (sharp joe)DAVIS DYLAN 118 20.00    
3  SELL SOMETHING Oct04 Aug05 Jul02 Jun10 May14 (de horaci)ORTIZ JR 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  SHINSUN Sep17 Aug16 Jul01 May11 Oct29 (tagg barcla)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 4.50 6% 14.80    
5  COURAGEOOUS OH LA Oct20 Aug26 Jul28 Apr25 Nov08 (dixon k)ALVARADO R 121 20.00    
6  BARREL OF QUESTS Nov02 Sep17 Jul02 Jun10 May19 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 12.00    
7  BE OF COURAGE Oct28 Oct04 Sep17 Aug27 Jul04 (pregman john )SILVERA RUBEN 118 3.00 19% 4.10    
8  TOP ENVOY Sep04 Aug11       (mann m)OLVER MADISON 116 30.00    
9  ROCKET AND ROLL Oct01 Aug27 Jan14 Dec16 Nov05 (cox h)ROSARIO JOEL 118 5.00 35% 1.80    
10  LORD FLINTSHIRE Oct13 Sep03 Aug16 Jun10 May14 (brion keri)CASTELLANO J 121 4.00 19% 4.30    
11  LEFTEMBEHIND Aug31 Aug20 Jul30 Jul08 Jun09 (tagg barclay)DAVIS KATIE 118 20.00    
12  NOBLE HUNTSMAN Sep17 Aug27 Aug05 Jul28 Jul02 (friedm)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 20.00    
SCR  SONIC SPEED Oct13 Sep22 Sep17 Aug27 Jul14 (morley thoma)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 6.00    
SCR  TRAPPE THE DREAM Sep26 Aug21 Aug01 Jul17 Jun27 (hennig mark)RIDER TBA 123 8.00    
SCR  BOURBON CHASE Oct20 Sep17 Aug18 Jul21 May11 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00    
SCR  LEO AND ROYAL Oct23 Oct09 Sep12 Aug27 Aug01 (englehart jeremia)RIDER TBA 120 6.00    
 
AQU-8   11/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARBON Oct19 Oct08 Sep24 Aug09 Jul30 (younghans willi)CANCEL ERIC 122 15.00    
2  MZ BIG BUCKS Aug31 Jul19 Jun18 May04 Apr08 (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  COUSIN KRISTI Oct19 Sep06 Aug07 Jul02 May28 (bond harold )CASTELLANO J 124 6.00 16% 5.10    
4  SILVER FIST Sep01 Jul07 May29 Apr23 Oct01 (giangiulio mich)DAVIS KATIE 122 15.00    
5  SWEETEST PRINCESS Oct13 Oct01 Sep04 Aug11 Jul15 (ferraro ja)RIVERA R 115 10.00    
6  TEMPERMENTAL Oct19 Sep24 Aug11 Aug03 Jun16 (atras rob)ORTIZ JR 124 4.50    
7  TIMELY CONQUEST Aug27 Aug11 Jun16     (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 122 2.00 44% 1.30    
8  MAJESTIC RETURN Sep24 Sep02 Jul09 May14 Apr16 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.00 18% 4.70    
9  FONTANAFREDDA Oct12 Sep17 Jul23 May07 Apr16 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 120 10.00    
 
AQU-9   11/16/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCAT TU TAP Oct20 Apr08 Feb24 Jan27 Jan05 (abreu r)ROSARIO JOEL 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TU BRUTUS out of TAPITINSILVER by TAPIT)
2  PUJOL Oct28         (henry nevi)MITCHELL RICHARD 121 50.00    
  (by NORMANDY INVASION out of FANCY WORK by MIZZEN MAST)
3  BREES Sep10 Aug11 Jul21     (mcgaughey clau)LEZCANO JOSE 121 15.00    
  (by FLATTER out of SPEEDY WAR by WAR FRONT)
SCR  RIGHT TO WIN (IRE) Jul01 May07 Mar12     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 121 2.50    
  (by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT out of ENJOYABLE by HOLY BULL)
5  HEART N SOUL Oct25 Aug31 May20 May13   (weaver george)VELAZQUEZ R 121 6.00 ★    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of ALESSANDRA by NOTIONAL)
6  TRIUMPHANT ROAD Sep04 Sep17 Aug19 Aug03   (barker edward)SILVERA RUBEN 124 30.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of FOXYSOX by FOXHOUND)
7  WILD GUESS Aug23 Jul28 May20 Dec03 Oct12 (tagg barclay)CASTELLANO J 121 20.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of CONQUEST by GALILEO (ARG))
8  NOSTALGIC ONE Sep03 Jul28 Jul07 Dec10   (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 121 10.00 9% 9.80    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of MUTABAAHYIA by ANIMAL KINGDOM)
9  TAKE ME TO JIMMY Oct16 Sep07       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 121 5.00 27% 2.70    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of SEARCH AND SEIZURE by WAR CHANT)
10  ONE BITE Feb21 Jan25 Dec03 Oct18 Sep24 (servis tyler)ADORNO ABNER 121 20.00    
  (by MCCRAKEN out of STAR IN THE CORNER by HOLY BULL)
11  WAR OFFICER Oct28 Aug24 Jul30     (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 121 3.50 36% 1.80    
  (by WAR FRONT out of CLAIRE DE LUNE by GALILEO)
12  CHAMPAGNE JUAN Oct14 Feb11       (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 121 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of WELL MONIED by MARIA'S MON)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.