Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-2   Win (5/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-3   Win (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-4   Win (15/7/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-5   Win (6/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-6   Win (4/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-7   Win (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-8   Win (14/8/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   09/28/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BIG DIG Aug30 Jul15 Nov17 Sep29 Jul31 (drury thomas )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 2.50 38% 1.60    
MIKITA Aug28 Jun22 Jan28     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 4.00    
PROUD PERFORMER Aug29 Aug01 Jul08 May04 Apr06 (king l)TORRES A 115 20.00    
REQUESTFORPROPOSAL Sep05 Aug01 Jul08 Jul23 Jul03 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 10.00 37% 1.70    
MALIBU SMART Jun22 May29 Apr01     (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.50    
CATHERINE BLAZE Sep07 Aug01 Jul09 Jun22 Jun10 (leonard iii)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SALSALITA VERDE Aug04 Jun30 Jun08 Mar24 Mar02 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 1.80    
 
CD-2   09/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ATHENAIS Aug03 Jul02 Jun09 May21 Mar23 (delacruz mejia )MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50    
SUMMER OF MISCHIEF Dec31 Nov25 Oct21 Sep17 Aug21 (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00 18% 4.70    
FLORIS Aug18 Jun24 May18 May26 May03 (duvall e)ELLIOTT JANE 121 10.00    
ARDEN'S ASSAULT Aug31 Jul15 Jun18 Apr27 Mar18 (davis christ)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
JACKIE'S SPIRIT Jul08 Jun15 May12 Apr08 Mar26 (vaccarezza carl)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.00 44% 1.30    
MAZOKU Jun29         (butcher james)AYALA ISAIAS 121 15.00 14% 6.10    
FAST GAL Aug28 Jul16 Jul02 Jun11 May18 (porter michael)COURT K 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   09/28/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BRITTLE AND YOO Aug22 Jul27 Jul08 Jun13 May04 (ewing a)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
VITAEMI Aug24 Jul27 May16 May02 Mar20 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 122 3.00    
HASHTAG WINNER Aug28 Aug12 Jul31 Jun23 May27 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 2.50    
ZING Sep07 Aug10 Jul27 Jul05 Apr19 (claire alexi)HERNANDEZ J 124 10.00 66% 0.50    
SCR  GUANA CAY Sep03 Jul23 Jun11 May27 May05 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 1.40    
KLOEPATRA Aug28 Oct08 Sep10 Aug22 Aug01 (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 122 15.00    
 
CD-4   09/28/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:27
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOLDEN STORM Aug04         (o'neill doug)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
SCR  WALK STREET Aug20         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
LEGAL DECEIVER         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00    
INNOCENT NYGHT Aug23         (michael brian)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 10% 9.00    
FIELD LASS Aug31 Aug04       (arnold geor)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00    
SCR  BARAYE Sep02 Apr19       (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50    
BIG DREAMER Aug28         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 4.00 18% 4.50    
MISS PEARL HART Aug28 Aug04       (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
ADRASTEIA Sep16         (bogle fergus)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 30.00    
10  SMILING ELLIE Aug17 Jul07       (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
11  SAVE THE MISCHIEF         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
SCR  SILVER MAJESTY Sep13 Jul30       (maker michael )TORRES A 114 10.00    
13  TOASTED ROLL Aug31         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
SCR  MAUI MISTRESS Sep13 Aug04       (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
15  NEOM BEACH Jul20         (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 43% 1.30    
SCR  DESTINY STAR Aug03         (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00    
 
CD-5   09/28/2023 6270ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MOUNT CRAIG Aug11 Jul14 May02 Mar23 Mar02 (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.80 31% 2.20    
FAST CHAD Sep03 Jul30 May29 May14 Apr08 (mccarthy michael)CHUAN MARTIN 120 10.00    
TIZ WICKED STRONG Aug05 Jul07 May14     (baker james)GRAHAM J 120 8.00    
HARBOUR BRIDGE Jun25 Jun02 May06 Mar25   (wismer glenn)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 15% 5.60    
ICE TIME Aug31 Aug05 Jun13 May25 May02 (sharp joe)TORRES A 115 10.00    
RIVALRY Aug26 Jul30       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 1.60 32% 2.10    
 
CD-6   09/28/2023 5940ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:25
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CURLINS INCHARGE Aug31 Jul21 Jun22 May28 May04 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 120 3.00    
EXEMPLIFIED Aug28         (simms mark)SANTANA JR 120 10.00    
WASHINGTON'S UNION Aug26 Jul21 Jun07 May14 Apr22 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 120 4.50 20% 4.10    
GOLDEN FLASH Aug06 Jul04 Jun18 May27 Apr15 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.50 37% 1.70    
SILVER RALEIGH Aug20 Jul21       (beckman whitworth)GRAHAM J 120 8.00    
TRICOLOUR Sep10 Aug27 Aug06 Jul21 Jul07 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.00    
GO CATS Sep03 Aug11 Jun29 Apr22 Mar11 (davis christop)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.00 11% 8.20    
 
CD-7   09/28/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($150K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KING FURY Feb18 Jan14 Dec17 Oct29 Oct01 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 122 4.00    
NOTARY Aug17 Jul19 Jun22 Jun01 Apr29 (hernandez armando)FELIX E 126 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  INJUNCTION Aug31 Nov25 Oct01 Aug06 Jul04 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 122 3.00    
KITTANSETT Jul01 Jun04 Apr20 Nov13 Sep28 (lobo paulo)SANTANA JR 122 8.00    
DASH ATTACK Aug25 Jul27 Jun30 Jun11 May11 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 122 2.00    
TWILIGHT BLUE Aug13 Jun25 May13 Apr02 Feb25 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 64% 0.60    
 
CD-8   09/28/2023 7920ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CLEVER THOUGHT Sep03 Aug13 Jun02 Apr15 Mar18 (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50    
SCR  HILLIARD Sep10 Aug05 Jul21 Jun22 Mar30 (maker micha)TORRES A 122 4.00    
SCR  OUR DREAM RYE'D Sep03 Aug13 May14 Apr21 Mar04 (wilkes r)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
DEVIL'S HARVEST Sep07 Jul13 Jun24 May20 Apr28 (diodoro robertin)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
SCR  TULCHAN Sep03 Jul15 Jun09 May06 Mar24 (delacour ar)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 10.00    
MAASAI WARRIOR Sep03 Aug04 Jul21 Jul08 Jun01 (leonard iii)BEJARANO R 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SWORE Sep03 Jul28 Jul07 May25   (motion gra)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.00    
IDRATHERBEBLESSED Sep10 Aug18 Jul23 Jun29 Jun11 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  KING CURLIN Sep03 Aug18 Jul16 May28 Apr27 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 122 10.00    
10  HE'S GOT SWAGGER Sep07 Aug13 Jul16 May20 May04 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
11  JUST A PHOTO Sep03 Jul21 May06 Apr08   (ramirez luis )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
SCR  ALWAYS ABOVE Sep03 Jun29 May13 Apr19 Nov04 (nihei michelle)GRAHAM J 122 30.00    
SCR  IRISH ACES Aug26 Nov06 Oct03     (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 120 20.00    
14  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Sep03 Jul16 Jun10 May11 Oct22 (bauer a)TORRES A 117 5.00 48% 1.10    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.