Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/6)-(1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/6)-(5/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6)-(5/2/6)-(4/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/6)-(5/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/6)-(5/2/6)-(5/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/6)-(4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6)-(4/1)-(15/7/4/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-3   WIN (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/1)-(4/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/1)-(15/7/4/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/1)-(15/7/4/8)-(6/1/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-4   WIN (15/7/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (15/7/4/8)-(15/7/4/13/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (15/7/4/8)-(15/7/4/13/8)-(15/7/4/13/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (15/7/4/8)-(6/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (15/7/4/8)-(6/1/4)-(4/3/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/4)-(6/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/4)-(6/1/4)-(6/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/4)-(4/3/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/4)-(4/3/7)-(6/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-6   WIN (4/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/7)-(4/3/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/7)-(4/3/7)-(4/3/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/7)-(6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3/7)-(6/2)-(14/8/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-7   WIN (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/2)-(6/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/2)-(14/8/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
CD-8   WIN (14/8/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (14/8/6)-(14/8/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (14/8/6)-(14/8/6)-(14/8/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/28/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG DIG Aug30 Jul15 Nov17 Sep29 Jul31 (drury thoma)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 2.50 38% 1.60    
2  MIKITA Aug28 Jun22 Jan28     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 4.00    
3  PROUD PERFORMER Aug29 Aug01 Jul08 May04 Apr06 (king l)TORRES A 115 20.00    
4  REQUESTFORPROPOSAL Sep05 Aug01 Jul08 Jul23 Jul03 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 10.00 37% 1.70    
5  MALIBU SMART Jun22 May29 Apr01     (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.50    
6  CATHERINE BLAZE Sep07 Aug01 Jul09 Jun22 Jun10 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SALSALITA VERDE Aug04 Jun30 Jun08 Mar24 Mar02 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 1.80    
 
CD-2   09/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ATHENAIS Aug03 Jul02 Jun09 May21 Mar23 (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50    
2  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF Dec31 Nov25 Oct21 Sep17 Aug21 (o'connor rober)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00 18% 4.70    
3  FLORIS Aug18 Jun24 May18 May26 May03 (duvall william)ELLIOTT JANE 121 10.00    
4  ARDEN'S ASSAULT Aug31 Jul15 Jun18 Apr27 Mar18 (davis chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
5  JACKIE'S SPIRIT Jul08 Jun15 May12 Apr08 Mar26 (vaccarezza ca)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.00 44% 1.30    
6  MAZOKU Jun29         (butcher james)AYALA ISAIAS 121 15.00 14% 6.10    
7  FAST GAL Aug28 Jul16 Jul02 Jun11 May18 (porter michael)COURT K 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   09/28/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRITTLE AND YOO Aug22 Jul27 Jul08 Jun13 May04 (ewing michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  VITAEMI Aug24 Jul27 May16 May02 Mar20 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 3.00    
3  HASHTAG WINNER Aug28 Aug12 Jul31 Jun23 May27 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 2.50    
4  ZING Sep07 Aug10 Jul27 Jul05 Apr19 (claire ale)HERNANDEZ J 124 10.00 66% 0.50    
SCR  GUANA CAY Sep03 Jul23 Jun11 May27 May05 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 1.40    
6  KLOEPATRA Aug28 Oct08 Sep10 Aug22 Aug01 (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 122 15.00    
 
CD-4   09/28/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN STORM Aug04         (o'neill doug)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of PULPITS STORM by PULPIT)
SCR  WALK STREET Aug20         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of PASTIME by LONHRO (AUS))
3  LEGAL DECEIVER         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of LEGAL MIND by BELLAMY ROAD)
4  INNOCENT NYGHT Aug23         (michael brian)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 10% 9.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of INNOCENT LOVE by GRAND SLAM)
5  FIELD LASS Aug31 Aug04       (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  BARAYE Sep02 Apr19       (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of PALACE DREAMS by FREUD)
7  BIG DREAMER Aug28         (mott rile)TORRES A 119 4.00 18% 4.50    
  (by THE FACTOR out of MIND ERASER by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
8  MISS PEARL HART Aug28 Aug04       (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of REUNION by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
9  ADRASTEIA Sep16         (bogle fergus)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 30.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of ARROSTOS by BODEMEISTER)
10  SMILING ELLIE Aug17 Jul07       (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of EMERLAUDE by EL CORREDOR)
11  SAVE THE MISCHIEF         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SAVED BY THE SWELL by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  SILVER MAJESTY Sep13 Jul30       (maker michae)TORRES A 114 10.00    
  (by PAYNTER out of SCORECARD by TALE OF THE CAT)
13  TOASTED ROLL Aug31         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 ★    
  (by FROSTED out of HONEY MUFFIN by CANDY RIDE)
SCR  MAUI MISTRESS Sep13 Aug04       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of WATERWAY RUN by ARCH)
15  NEOM BEACH Jul20         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 43% 1.30    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of GIANT'S CAUSEY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  DESTINY STAR Aug03         (hamm timot)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
CD-5   09/28/2023 6270ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOUNT CRAIG Aug11 Jul14 May02 Mar23 Mar02 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.80 31% 2.20    
  (by ARROGATE out of FLASH FORWARD by SCROLL)
2  FAST CHAD Sep03 Jul30 May29 May14 Apr08 (mccarthy micha)CHUAN MARTIN 120 10.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of AWESOME BELLA by AWESOME AGAIN)
3  TIZ WICKED STRONG Aug05 Jul07 May14     (baker james)GRAHAM J 120 8.00    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of TIZ KISMET by TIZNOW)
4  HARBOUR BRIDGE Jun25 Jun02 May06 Mar25   (wismer gle)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 15% 5.60    
  (by JUSTIFY out of TIGER MOTH by STREET SENSE)
5  ICE TIME Aug31 Aug05 Jun13 May25 May02 (sharp joe)TORRES A 115 10.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of SIRENUSA by TIZNOW)
6  RIVALRY Aug26 Jul30       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 1.60 32% 2.10    
  (by UNCLE MO out of OUR LOVE TAP by TAPIT)
 
CD-6   09/28/2023 5940ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CURLINS INCHARGE Aug31 Jul21 Jun22 May28 May04 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 120 3.00    
2  EXEMPLIFIED Aug28         (simms ma)SANTANA JR 120 10.00    
3  WASHINGTON'S UNION Aug26 Jul21 Jun07 May14 Apr22 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 120 4.50 20% 4.10    
4  GOLDEN FLASH Aug06 Jul04 Jun18 May27 Apr15 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.50 37% 1.70    
5  SILVER RALEIGH Aug20 Jul21       (beckman whitwort)GRAHAM J 120 8.00    
6  TRICOLOUR Sep10 Aug27 Aug06 Jul21 Jul07 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.00    
7  GO CATS Sep03 Aug11 Jun29 Apr22 Mar11 (davis christ)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.00 11% 8.20    
 
CD-7   09/28/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($150K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING FURY Feb18 Jan14 Dec17 Oct29 Oct01 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 122 4.00    
2  NOTARY Aug17 Jul19 Jun22 Jun01 Apr29 (hernandez armando)FELIX E 126 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  INJUNCTION Aug31 Nov25 Oct01 Aug06 Jul04 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 122 3.00    
4  KITTANSETT Jul01 Jun04 Apr20 Nov13 Sep28 (lobo pau)SANTANA JR 122 8.00    
5  DASH ATTACK Aug25 Jul27 Jun30 Jun11 May11 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 2.00    
6  TWILIGHT BLUE Aug13 Jun25 May13 Apr02 Feb25 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 64% 0.60    
 
CD-8   09/28/2023 7920ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CLEVER THOUGHT Sep03 Aug13 Jun02 Apr15 Mar18 (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50    
SCR  HILLIARD Sep10 Aug05 Jul21 Jun22 Mar30 (maker mic)TORRES A 122 4.00    
SCR  OUR DREAM RYE'D Sep03 Aug13 May14 Apr21 Mar04 (wilkes r)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
4  DEVIL'S HARVEST Sep07 Jul13 Jun24 May20 Apr28 (diodoro robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
SCR  TULCHAN Sep03 Jul15 Jun09 May06 Mar24 (delacour )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 10.00    
6  MAASAI WARRIOR Sep03 Aug04 Jul21 Jul08 Jun01 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SWORE Sep03 Jul28 Jul07 May25   (motion g)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.00    
8  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Sep10 Aug18 Jul23 Jun29 Jun11 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  KING CURLIN Sep03 Aug18 Jul16 May28 Apr27 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 10.00    
10  HE'S GOT SWAGGER Sep07 Aug13 Jul16 May20 May04 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
11  JUST A PHOTO Sep03 Jul21 May06 Apr08   (ramirez lui)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
SCR  ALWAYS ABOVE Sep03 Jun29 May13 Apr19 Nov04 (nihei michelle)GRAHAM J 122 30.00    
SCR  IRISH ACES Aug26 Nov06 Oct03     (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 120 20.00    
14  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Sep03 Jul16 Jun10 May11 Oct22 (bauer philip)TORRES A 117 5.00 48% 1.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.