Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Wednesday - October 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (6/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/8)-(6/7/2/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/7/8)-(6/7/2/8)-(6/7/2/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/7/8)-(6/8/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/7/8)-(6/8/7/1)-(1/7/8/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-2   WIN (6/8/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/7/1)-(6/8/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/8/7/1)-(6/8/7/1)-(6/8/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/8/7/1)-(1/7/8/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/8/7/1)-(1/7/8/9)-(5/7/2/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
KEE-3   WIN (1/7/8/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/8/9)-(1/7/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/8/9)-(1/7/8/9)-(1/7/8/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/8/9)-(5/7/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/8/9)-(5/7/2/6)-(11/12/3/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
KEE-4   WIN (5/7/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/2/6)-(5/7/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/2/6)-(5/7/2/6)-(5/7/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/7/2/6)-(11/12/3/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/7/2/6)-(11/12/3/1)-(4/1/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-5   WIN (11/12/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/12/3/1)-(11/12/3/13/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (11/12/3/1)-(11/12/3/13/1)-(11/12/3/13/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (11/12/3/1)-(4/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (11/12/3/1)-(4/1/2)-(5/7/4/1/11) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-6   WIN (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/2)-(4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/2)-(5/7/4/1/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2)-(5/7/4/1/11)-(6/7/2/11) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-7   WIN (5/7/4/1/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/7/4/1/11)-(5/7/4/1/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/7/4/1/11)-(5/7/4/1/11)-(5/7/4/1/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/7/4/1/11)-(6/7/2/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-8   WIN (6/7/2/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/2/11)-(6/7/2/8/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/7/2/11)-(6/7/2/8/11)-(6/7/2/8/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   10/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($47K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DERBY WIFE Sep20 Jul25 Mar21     (reed r)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 30.00    
2  LADY FREE WILL Sep23         (minnock g)LANERIE J 121 4.00 ★    
3  FRACING ALLSTAR Jul12 Feb15       (reed r)MACHADO LUAN 121 30.00    
SCR  ZIVA         (hughes g)BEJARANO R 121 20.00    
5  DOODLE DOO Sep08 Aug11 Jul13 Jun02 May04 (obert danielle)STEVENS C 119 50.00    
6  VELOCHEETAH Aug28 May29       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 57% 0.70    
7  JUBILANT JOANIE Sep27 Apr01 Feb23     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 20% 4.00    
8  ALTER THE STARS Aug18 Jul08       (tomlinson mich)ASHTON GAVIN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STAGE BELL Sep17 Aug29 Aug01 Jun15 Jun03 (pitts helen)CANNON DECLAN 121 3.50    
10  IMPERATOR FURIOSA Sep15         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00    
 
KEE-2   10/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUTH Oct01 Sep17 Aug20 Aug05 Jun23 (stephen antho)CEDILLO MAURO 113 30.00 5% 19.00    
2  LYKAN Sep04 Aug23 Jul27 Jun14 May25 (young r)FELIX E 121 8.00    
3  SOLIDIFY Sep22 Sep07 Jul22 Jun23 Jun10 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 114 12.00    
4  FRANZ JOSEF Sep18 Aug21 Jul25 Jul03 Jun26 (wismer gle)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50    
SCR  THE DISTRACTOR Sep23 Dec11 Nov13 Oct22 Sep17 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00    
6  SLAM DUNK SERMON Jun23 Jun10 May13 Apr15 Mar23 (vance th)SANTANA JR 121 3.50 50% 1.00    
7  BLUE KENTUCKY Sep22 Jun10 May13 Apr20 Feb17 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  TEE BURNS Sep29 Aug09 Jul26 Jul09 May31 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 17% 4.90    
9  PURE PANIC Sep13 Aug06 Jul15 May16 Apr16 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 121 10.00    
 
KEE-3   10/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EAST SHORE Jul22 Jun11 May25 Apr07 Nov27 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 2.50 37% 1.70    
2  MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM Sep01 Aug04 Jul17 Jun02 Nov21 (von k)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 15.00    
3  STEEL RACER Sep21 Jul23 Jun29 Jun11 Sep29 (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
4  CATHERINE BLAZE Sep28 Sep07 Aug01 Jul09 Jun22 (leonard georg)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00    
5  ROSARIO'S PRAYER Aug09 Jul09 May22 Mar11 Feb11 (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
6  FLORIS Sep28 Aug18 Jun24 May18 May26 (duvall william)ELLIOTT JANE 122 50.00    
7  WINDY BAY Sep03 Aug12 Jul15 May25 Apr21 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 118 1.60 23% 3.40    
8  I FEEL THE NEED Jul22 Jun16 Apr28 Apr15 Mar30 (hartman chris)LANERIE J 122 3.50 11% 8.00    
9  EFFICACIOUS Jul25 Jun19       (kintz matthew)GRAHAM J 122 20.00 9% 9.60    
 
KEE-4   10/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($69K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WITS AND WAGERS Sep03 Aug19 Jul15 Jun16 May13 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
2  MUSTANG LADY Sep10 Aug05 Jun29 May12 Apr07 (newton tro)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 17% 4.80    
3  SPICY ITALIAN Sep16 Aug17 Jul16 Jun11 May20 (catalano)SANTANA JR 118 3.00    
4  SANDRA D Sep21 Aug05 Jul08 Jun13 Apr23 (margolis stephe)COHEN DAVID 118 4.00    
5  THESTRAL Sep21 Aug16 Jul20 Feb08 Jan13 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 35% 1.90    
6  MARSHSIDE MAMA Sep11 Aug04 Jul10 Jun05 May13 (anderson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  SUCH SOUNDS Sep21 Jul26 May18 Apr28 Mar23 (bauer a)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.50 21% 3.80    
8  C C CRUISE CONTROL Sep09 Aug12 Jul15 Jun21 May29 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
 
KEE-5   10/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NYQUIST FREQUENCY Sep17         (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of IS IT GOLD by INDYGO SHINER)
2  YELL COUNTY Sep17         (medina rober)GEROUX FLORENT 119 30.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of FEATHERBED by SMART STRIKE)
3  SPECIAL ELEMENT Aug19 Jul15       (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 9% 10.70    
  (by COPPER BULLET out of IT'S HIGH TIME by GONE ASTRAY)
4  POPWEISER         (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 8.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of CO COLA by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
5  BLUE LINE         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of TAKECHARGEDELILAH by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
6  JUSTIFREAK         (kenneally edd)VELAZQUEZ R 119 10.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of THE SCHVAGEN by MATTY G)
7  SO SMOOTH         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 6.00    
  (by CURLIN out of SPANISH HARLEM by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  WORLD FAIR Aug19 Jul22       (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 15.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of FOXBEAU by BLUEGRASS CAT)
9  IT'SMYLUCKYTIME         (pletcher todd )ROSARIO JOEL 119 8.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of LUCKYCALL by ITSMYLUCKYDAY)
10  NULLIFY Aug12         (lukas wayn)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of BLAME IT ON ALPHIE by BLAME)
11  AIR OF DEFIANCE Aug25         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 44% 1.30    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of FAYPIEN by GHOSTZAPPER)
12  ANTHEM KING         (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 21% 3.70    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of VALENTINE ROSIE by CURLIN)
13  RIVETAGE Sep22 Sep02       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
  (by FROSTED out of POSSE NEEDED by CALEB'S POSSE)
SCR  BANANA PLAN Sep03 Aug20       (perez manny)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of MONTANA NATIVE by YES IT'S TRUE)
SCR  LOU'S LEGACY Aug28 Jun01 May04 Apr13   (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 119 30.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of BIOGIO'S GIFT by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
 
KEE-6   10/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INSIGNIA Aug28 Jul14 Jul29 Jun23 May01 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 18% 4.50    
2  SHEZZ KOLDAZICE Aug30 Aug09 Jun29 May27 Apr28 (maker michael )ROSARIO JOEL 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  JAG WARRIOR Sep22 Aug06 Jun11 May05 Feb19 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 12.00    
4  PUNCHBOWL Apr07 Mar05 Feb11     (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 0.80 58% 0.70    
5  SKRATCH KAT Sep22 Jul23 Jul16 Jun03 Nov25 (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
6  MUSIC STREET Sep22 Aug11 May27 May05 Nov20 (beckman whi)VELAZQUEZ R 122 8.00    
 
KEE-7   10/18/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMPIRICAL VIEW Sep02 Aug04 Jul09     (divito ja)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00 7% 14.00    
2  AROUND THE SUN Apr14 Mar12 Oct28 Oct14   (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
SCR  TITUBA Oct01 Sep13 Jun29 Apr28 Mar12 (maker michael )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00    
4  OUR DOTSIE Sep10 Aug06 Mar12 Sep14   (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 18% 4.60    
5  HOLA GATA Sep09 Aug11 Jul15 Nov05 Aug21 (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 30% 2.30    
6  YARBOROUGH Sep06 Aug16 Oct30 Sep10 Aug19 (reed r)BEJARANO R 122 30.00    
7  HOLY FOLEY Sep09 Aug05 Jul09 May29 May03 (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 3.50 21% 3.70    
8  CHARLEE O Sep10 Aug28 Jul22 Jun10 Mar09 (waltz brian)ACHARD ALEX 122 20.00    
9  MINT EDITION Sep18 Jul22 Jun22 Jun02 Apr23 (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 122 30.00    
10  BEACH WALKN Sep10 Jul08 Jun02 May05 Apr07 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
11  LAKESIDE MUSIC Jun29         (spicer james )LEBRON VICTOR 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
12  JENNY LIND Sep13 Jul15 Jun08 May12 Feb23 (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 118 8.00    
SCR  BE MY SUNSHINE Sep10 Jul01 Apr27 Mar12 Jan08 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
SCR  EIVISSA Sep12 Sep06 Jul29 Jun19 May19 (mckeever andr)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
15  CONDONE Sep09 Apr07 Mar09 Feb08 Jan01 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
SCR  SHOPLIFTER Sep23 Aug18 Jun29 May29 Apr16 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
 
KEE-8   10/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($69K) 2 ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ATOMIC         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
2  RUNNIN MUNNIN Sep22         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00 6% 16.20    
3  TRACK LIGHT         (walsh br)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
4  FINISH THE MISSION         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
5  RUNAWAY JOKE Sep07         (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
6  CATALINA CRUSH Sep14 Aug11       (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 51% 1.00    
7  KNICKS STORM         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 20% 4.00    
8  STERLING HONOR         (mott riley)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 ★    
9  WE MISS ARLINGTON         (divito jam)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
10  ARMY KID         (rosin coty )QUINONEZ ALONSO 119 20.00    
11  KARLWITHANARL         (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  THIS TIME BLUE Sep22         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
SCR  OZONE Aug26 Aug05 Jun29     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
SCR  DROPTOP CADDY         (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
SCR  HIGGINSVILLE         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.