Handicappers' Racing Form
"A Premier Resource for Free horse Racing Picks, Strong Longshots and Vulnerable Favorites."
Thoroughbred Racing Simulator is licensed and powered by Brisnet.
Visit us at tbrsimulator.com.
Contact us at support@tbrsimulator.com.
Follow us on X@tbrsimulator.
 
The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 27, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/1)-(4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/1)-(4/13/10/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/1)-(4/13/10/12)-(4/8/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (4/13/10/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/13/10/12)-(4/13/10/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/13/10/12)-(4/13/10/12)-(4/13/10/12) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/13/10/12)-(4/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/13/10/12)-(4/8/1)-(8/2/3/4/11) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (4/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/8/1)-(4/8/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/8/1)-(4/8/1)-(4/8/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/8/1)-(8/2/3/4/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/8/1)-(8/2/3/4/11)-(1/2/8/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (8/2/3/4/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/2/3/4/11)-(8/2/3/4/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/2/3/4/11)-(8/2/3/4/11)-(8/2/3/4/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/2/3/4/11)-(1/2/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/2/3/4/11)-(1/2/8/5)-(10/12/6/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/2/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/8/5)-(1/2/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/8/5)-(1/2/8/5)-(1/2/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/8/5)-(10/12/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/2/8/5)-(10/12/6/7)-(6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-6   WIN (10/12/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/12/6/7)-(10/12/6/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/12/6/7)-(10/12/6/5/7)-(10/12/6/5/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/12/6/7)-(6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (10/12/6/7)-(6)-(7/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
CD-7   WIN (6) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6)-(7/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (6)-(7/3)-(1/10/5/2/6) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
CD-8   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (7/3)-(1/10/5/2/6) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
CD-9   WIN (1/10/5/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/10/5/2/6)-(1/10/5/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/10/5/2/6)-(1/10/5/2/6)-(1/10/5/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/27/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARLEEZY Sep02 Aug10 Jul29 Jul09 Jun24 (rosin cot)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 5.00 9% 10.20    
2  BORN FLAWLESS Sep14 Aug20 Jul31 Jun25 May29 (vance thomas)TORRES A 113 5.00    
3  VALE Aug20 Jul14 Jun29 May21 Mar18 (forster t)LANERIE J 121 4.50 31% 2.20    
4  RUN SMITTY RUN Sep01 Jul19 Jun23 Feb25 Oct08 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 1.60 33% 2.00    
5  LAZARUS Sep07 Jun18 Jun03 May11 Apr21 (cundiff waylon)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
SCR  I NINETY FIVE Aug29 Aug18 Aug04 Jul09 Jun15 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00    
7  BOLT ABOVE Sep14 Aug26 Jul31 Jun06 Apr28 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.00    
 
CD-2   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARKSWOMAN May19 Mar05 Nov24 Nov06 Oct01 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 6.00    
SCR  WITCH OF NOVEMBER Aug28 Aug11 Jun15 May19 Apr01 (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00    
SCR  REQUESTFORPROPOSAL Sep05 Aug01 Jul08 Jul23 Jul03 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 12.00    
4  BEAUTIFUL TEMPLE Mar30 Mar09 Jan26 Nov13 Nov04 (ruis)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 124 5.00 45% 1.20    
5  MRS. SPEAKER Aug26 Aug01 Jun27 Jun06 May10 (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 6.00    
SCR  STORM HAVEN Aug26 Jul08 May29 Oct26 Sep16 (mcgee paul)NAVAS YOEL 117 8.00    
7  I'M BETH DUTTON Apr29 Apr02 Mar10 Feb10 Jun25 (puhich mike)TORRES A 116 8.00    
8  ISABEL DE CLARE Aug22 Aug11 Jul21 Jul03 Jun15 (seglin e)AYALA ISAIAS 124 30.00    
SCR  PROUD PERFORMER Aug29 Aug01 Jul08 May04 Apr06 (king l)CARROLL DECLAN 121 30.00    
10  JUBILANT JOANIE Apr01 Feb23       (ortiz ale)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 6.00 10% 8.60    
SCR  ALTER THE STARS Aug18 Jul08       (tomlinson mich)ASHTON GAVIN 121 12.00    
12  DAISY JONES         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
13  AREUHAVINGFUNYET         (ortiz a)TORRES A 116 6.00 16% 5.20    
 
CD-3   09/27/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YAK Sep11 Jul05 Jun08 May09 Feb10 (broberg kar)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.00 14% 6.40    
2  JOB SECURITY Aug20 Aug06 Jun24 May26 Apr23 (cano muno)ASHTON GAVIN 122 5.00    
3  IMPROBABLE STORY Jul06 May26 May04 Apr26 Apr12 (king l)TORRES A 117 12.00    
4  COMMANDER CARL Sep05 Jul08 Jun02 May14 Apr21 (ortiz ale)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 3.00 43% 1.30    
SCR  MAD ADAM Jul08 Jun10 Mar22 Mar10 Jan12 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00    
SCR  TO KALON Jun30 May15 Apr21 Feb16   (cundiff wa)ASMUSSEN J 122 30.00    
SCR  CODE RUNNER Aug27 Jul20 Jun10 May20 Mar10 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.50    
8  BREADMAN Jul19 May13 Apr20 Mar30 Feb18 (shirer m)SANTANA JR 122 4.50 14% 6.00    
9  KEEN ON YOU Sep10 Aug18 Aug09 May19 Apr29 (cundiff waylon)ELLIOTT JANE 122 20.00    
 
CD-4   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET GUITAR Aug20         (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
2  ISA LEI         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 20.00 6% 14.70    
3  SENSIBLE CHOICE         (pitts helen)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 6% 14.70    
4  GRACE AND FREEDOM         (jones la)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00 6% 14.70    
SCR  WALK ON BY         (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 3.00    
6  FASTA LAVISTA BABY Sep03 Aug05       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.50    
7  ANNA'S WISH Sep03         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 10.00    
8  CRY IF I WANT TO         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 52% 0.90    
9  READY FOR TROUBLE Aug01         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
10  DESPERATE TIMES Aug30 Aug10       (bright derric)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
11  HIGH SISU         (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 6% 14.70    
12  MISSY BEE Aug12         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
SCR  SAVE THE MOMENT         (davis christ)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
SCR  SKINDY DIPPER         (martin da)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 119 12.00    
 
CD-5   09/27/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ON A SPREE Aug11 Jun18 Apr29 Mar24 Mar11 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 2.50 56% 0.80    
2  MOMENT Aug16 Aug06 Jul23 Jun21 Jun11 (lopez elia)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 3.50 15% 5.80    
3  RANDELLO Sep02 Jun23 May27 Apr13 Apr01 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
4  TIGER MOON Sep08 May06 Mar31 Mar11 Jan13 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 124 3.00    
5  MINE OWN STAR Sep14 Aug27 Jul30 Jun24 May31 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  NORDIC LIGHT Aug16 Jul22 Jun10 Apr29 Apr13 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00    
7  NEPAL UP Aug18 Jun17 May06 Apr20 Feb23 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00    
8  GREY STREAK Sep03 Aug17 Jul26 Jul09 Jun17 (rodriguez hugo)EMIGH A 122 5.00 6% 14.80    
SCR  SANTA CRUISER Sep17 Aug20 Jul22 Jul08 Jun17 (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 122 20.00    
 
CD-6   09/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ELLA ELIZABETH Aug20         (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 4.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of PERFECT PAULA by SONGANDAPRAYER)
2  DAWN'S CREED         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 15.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of KITTY FOILLE by BLACK MINNALOUSHE)
3  IDALOU         (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of ESTELLINE by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
4  ANNA AFTER MIDNITE         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 12.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of MIDNIGHT ANGELUS by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
5  BLUE SQUALL         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 ★    
  (by TAPWRIT out of SKY O' BLUE by HENNY HUGHES)
6  BEAUTIFUL MISCHIEF         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of NEFERTITI by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  HOW SOON IS NOW         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of RUBY TRUST by SMART STRIKE)
8  WILLOWY Aug26         (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of SHE'S ON PARADE by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
9  YES TO CHAMPAGNE         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by MITOLE out of GLENCOE CHURCH by CAPOTE)
10  MIA MARCELA Aug09         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 61% 0.60    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
11  TWIRLING GOOD TIME         (bauer a)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of CELEBRATEGOODTIMES by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
12  SILVER ROSE         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 15% 5.70    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PURE SILVER by MISSION IMPAZIBLE)
13  RENFREW         (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of AMAZING PEYTON by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  TANYA SHOWERS         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of MISS MARY PAT by SERVICE STRIPE)
 
CD-7   09/27/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ORDER OF MAGNITUDE Aug12 Jul21 Jun18 May27 May04 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 1.60 14% 6.00    
2  ST. ELMO Aug26 Jul07 Jun10 Apr14 Dec29 (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 113 6.00    
3  WATASHA Aug17 Jun25 May26 May19 Apr01 (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00    
SCR  GLEN AIRY Aug08 Jul07 Jun11 May14 Feb24 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 118 12.00    
SCR  LUPO'S LEGACY Aug20 Jul31 Jul07 Jun10 Jun01 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
6  MONEY SUPPLY Aug26 Aug20 Apr01 Jan14 Dec18 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.20 54% 0.90    
 
CD-8   09/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EVAN SING May06 Feb18 Oct23 Sep14 Jul28 (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
2  GOODASIWONSWAS Sep01 Oct20 Oct03     (warpool shane)MILLER CHASE 121 15.00    
3  XY SPEED Jul02 May27 Apr07 Mar08 Oct07 (lerman michael)GRAHAM J 121 10.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  COUNTERSTRIKE Sep09 Aug11 Jun23 May19 Mar10 (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 123 8.00    
5  OF THE MOMENT Oct23 Sep27 Sep03 Aug12 Jul24 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00    
SCR  POINT ME BY Sep03 Jul09 May05 Apr13 Nov18 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
7  EXCESS MAGIC Sep03 Aug06 Jun24 May29 Apr23 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00 30% 2.30    
8  TILTED TOWERS Sep13 Jul21 Jun10 May25 Apr20 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 8.00    
SCR  NO NAY HUDSON (IRE) Aug13 May13 Apr16 Nov05 Oct09 (ward a)LANERIE J 118 3.50    
SCR  BROKEN RIB Aug04 Jul01 May25 Feb12 Jan16 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50    
SCR  SKY AND SAND Aug26 Aug04 Jun22 May05 Apr08 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 3.00    
 
CD-9   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEMPTING LADY Aug30 Aug03       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 32% 2.10    
  (by ENTICED out of FANTASTIC GIRL by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
2  STANDOUTSENSATION Aug28 Aug01       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 6% 15.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of AMAZE ME GRACE by EXPLODENT)
3  WHEN I LOOK AT YOU         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of SET YOU FREE by ARCH)
4  QUEEN LEXI Sep16         (short thomas)EMIGH A 119 10.00    
  (by KLIMT out of QUEEN PRISCILLA by FLATTER)
5  HONORABLE MISCHIEF Sep02 Aug09       (rosin cot)TORRES A 119 15.00 12% 7.20    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of BADGE OF HONOR by HONOR GRADES)
6  CHEYENNE MOON         (brennan te)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TONALIST out of TETHERBALL by PROUD CITIZEN)
7  DANCING PRINCESS Jun25 Jun10       (spicer james )BECKMAN ALICE 112 5.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of CASTINETTE DANCER by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
8  RED SUN DRESS         (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of SUMMER CLOTHES by SUMMER FRONT)
9  SARAH'S DREAM Aug31 Jul30       (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of RELENTLESS MISS by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
10  KRICKLE Sep16 Aug20 Jul30 Jul09 May26 (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 3.50 29% 2.40    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of FRISCO GIRL by QUALITY ROAD)
11  SHEZTHEFACTOR         (hamilton sarah)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of MY LUCKY SPELL by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
12  KENTUCKYTERMINATOR         (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of KATY'S REVENGE by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
SCR  TROUBLE WITH SUGAR         (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of MISS SPINKS by ROCK HARD TEN)
SCR  SILVERY MOON         (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 119 8.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of RANGE MARKER by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
SCR  BRIGHT LADY DAY         (jackson chris)GILLIGAN JACK 119 12.00    
  (by RACE DAY out of LADY RELAUNCH by BRIGHT LAUNCH)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.