Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Ellis Park
Thursday - June 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

ELP-1   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/5)-(12/1/7/8/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5)-(12/1/7/8/10)-(6/4/7) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-2   WIN (12/1/7/8/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/1/7/8/10)-(12/1/7/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/1/7/8/10)-(12/1/7/8/10)-(12/1/7/8/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (12/1/7/8/10)-(6/4/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (12/1/7/8/10)-(6/4/7)-(5/2/9/7/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-3   WIN (6/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/7)-(6/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/7)-(6/4/7)-(6/4/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/7)-(5/2/9/7/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/4/7)-(5/2/9/7/6)-(3/5/4/6/8) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/2/9/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/2/9/7/6)-(5/2/9/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/2/9/7/6)-(5/2/9/7/6)-(5/2/9/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/2/9/7/6)-(3/5/4/6/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (5/2/9/7/6)-(3/5/4/6/8)-(5/10/9/6/1) 125 $1.00 $125 
ELP-5   WIN (3/5/4/6/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/4/6/8)-(3/5/4/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/4/6/8)-(3/5/4/6/8)-(3/5/4/6/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/5/4/6/8)-(5/10/9/6/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (3/5/4/6/8)-(5/10/9/6/1)-(6/3/1/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-6   WIN (5/10/9/6/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/10/9/6/1)-(5/10/9/6/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/10/9/6/1)-(5/10/9/6/1)-(5/10/9/6/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/10/9/6/1)-(6/3/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/10/9/6/1)-(6/3/1/7)-(6/2/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-7   WIN (6/3/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/1/7)-(6/3/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/1/7)-(6/3/1/7)-(6/3/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/3/1/7)-(6/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1/7)-(6/2/5)-(4/2/1/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-8   WIN (6/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/5)-(6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/5)-(4/2/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5)-(4/2/1/8)-(1/2/3/5/12) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-9   WIN (4/2/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/1/8)-(4/2/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/1/8)-(4/2/1/8)-(4/2/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/2/1/8)-(1/2/3/5/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-10   WIN (1/2/3/5/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/2/3/5/12)-(1/2/3/5/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/2/3/5/12)-(1/2/3/5/12)-(1/2/3/5/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
ELP-1   06/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  COLTONATOR Feb12 Dec22 Nov26 Sep25 Jul03 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
DRIVE FOR FUN May14 Jan13 Dec16 Nov24 Nov09 (delacruz jo)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
SEVEN NATION ARMY Apr23 Mar09 Jan28 Jan06 Nov02 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 118 2.50 26% 2.90    
DARK TIMBER May04 Mar24 Mar12 Feb05 Dec17 (o'neill doug)COURT K 118 3.00 31% 2.20    
DERBY DATE Jul08 May27 Apr30 Mar18   (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 9% 9.80    
PALACE KITTEN May04 Mar30 Feb18 Jan13 Dec22 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 4.00    
 
ELP-2   06/15/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PASS THE HAT         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 19% 4.40    
  (by COLLECTED out of VERONIQUE by MIZZEN MAST)
RHYME SCHEMES May18         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of KATHERINE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
PONCE DE LEON         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00    
  (by COPPER BULLET out of ST. JOHN'S RIVER by INCLUDE)
MI T CADEN         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of KATIE'S KISS by RUNNING STAG)
SCR  TAKE CHARGE J J         (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of ALL WOMAN by HALF OURS)
OMEX         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
BEAUDACIOUS COLTON May25 May03 Apr07     (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 114 6.00 11% 8.10    
  (by RACE DAY out of BEAUDACIOUS LADY by BEAU GENIUS)
COWBOY CODE         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of NOT IN JEST by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  WOODCOURT Apr20         (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 119 15.00    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of WARRIORESS by POWERFUL VENUE)
10  RULEROFTHEUNIVERSE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of BIRIBA by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
11  PHREDDIE MAC         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FINANCIAL RECOVERY by STREET CRY (IRE))
12  TIMBERLAKE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50 31% 2.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PIN UP by TAPIT)
SCR  NORMANDY HERO         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SWAN OF THE NILE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  BAYTOWN PARFAIT Jun04 Apr13       (mcentee paul)MCENTEE GRACE 119 10.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of QUEENOFTHECHANNEL by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
SCR  BALTA         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of LAQUESTA by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  EPIC BATTLE         (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of SPEEDY WAR by WAR FRONT)
 
ELP-3   06/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3 ALL PT- 2:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOOD HEART Apr28 Mar04 Nov26 Oct08 Sep10 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
NULLARBOR Apr09 Feb11 Jan06 Oct10 Aug20 (ramirez m)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
SCR  AL'S ROMEO May06 Apr21 Apr02 Mar24   (stuart sh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
JOKING WAY Apr29 Mar05 Jan20 Nov26 Oct30 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 2.50 13% 6.60    
ATKINS May18 Mar19 Feb24 Feb03 Dec31 (wong jonat)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50    
CACTUS Apr28 Apr01 Feb24 Feb04   (morse l)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 39% 1.50    
MONEY RUN Apr12 Mar16 Feb20 Jan28 Jan08 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 10% 9.10    
 
ELP-4   06/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHEN I GET PAID         (hamilton )TORRES A 118 15.00    
GUCCI BOY Apr08 Feb24 Jan28 Oct15 Sep01 (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 25% 2.90    
SAVAGE KISS May06 Mar24       (heitzman )HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
PASS LINE         (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
ISOCLINE May11 Apr18 Mar11 Feb17   (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 118 2.50 30% 2.30    
REDHILL Mar17         (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00 5% 18.70    
HURRY ON OUT Nov22 Oct26 Apr04 Feb19   (tooley jennifer)COURT K 124 6.00 7% 14.30    
I NINETY FIVE Oct05 Sep11       (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00    
FIGHTERTOWN May21 Feb26 Jan21 Dec24 Oct23 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 12% 7.10    
10  MR. COMMANDER May21 Apr27 Apr18 Jan13   (king l)CASTANON L 118 10.00    
 
ELP-5   06/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MALIBU TIME May14 Apr29 Mar18 Feb17 Jan27 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
RALLY SQUIRREL May24 Apr26 Mar16 Jan19 Dec08 (vanden be)TORRES A 118 3.50    
WARTIME HERO May04 Mar26 Mar03 Jan08 Dec17 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.50 38% 1.60    
JINGLE May16 Apr23 Apr14 Mar31 Mar16 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 120 6.00 6% 14.50    
GO FOR SHERRIE May27 May03 Nov16 Oct27 Sep26 (manley steve)GRAHAM J 120 5.00 30% 2.40    
ONE LAST HAND May05 Apr29 Apr20 Mar10 Feb11 (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
MOLIERE May06 Apr23 Apr08 Sep21 Aug19 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
FERRYBOAT May20 Mar31 Jan06 Dec16 Dec08 (miller jerome)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
CO CONSPIRATOR May20 May03 Mar10 Feb21 Jan12 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00    
 
ELP-6   06/15/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COMEDY ACT May21 Apr30 Mar16 Feb18 Jan21 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
LADY IRENE May20 Nov26       (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 8.00    
MISS ARLINGTON May20 May02 Apr15 Mar31 Mar01 (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 8.00    
ERNA May17 Mar12 Jan07 Dec11 Oct22 (matejka pavel)BEJARANO R 118 5.00    
HIDEKI Apr20 Mar30 Mar09 Feb22 Dec14 (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 123 5.00 36% 1.80    
SWEET ALYSSA Apr27 Mar25 Feb17 Jan21   (pessin ne)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BOBBIE SOX May27 Apr07 Mar10 Jan26 Jan05 (gonzalez re)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 30.00    
SURE CAN Mar25 Mar01 Jan27 Jan08 Nov24 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.50    
PLAYLIST Feb18 Jan22 Nov18 Aug25   (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 113 3.50 10% 8.80    
10  ONLY KIDDING Apr20 Mar30 Feb08 Jan11 Dec14 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 123 4.00 27% 2.70    
11  NUMERO SEIS May20 Oct09 Sep13 Sep01 Jul20 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
SCR  DEVINE CHARGER May20 Sep09 Jul31 Jul09 May14 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 123 5.00    
SCR  LITTLE MOMBO Jun12 May26 Apr07 Feb26 Jan23 (bauer philip)GEROUX FLORENT 123 5.00    
SCR  VINEGAR VEGGIES Mar30 Feb08 Jun15 May26 May06 (mcentee paul)HEARD TYLER 123 20.00    
 
ELP-7   06/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BEOCCA May25 Apr13 Mar17 Feb24 Jan21 (castanon jose )CASTANON L 124 10.00 10% 9.20    
DREAMFACTOR Mar24 Feb02 Jan13 Jul30 Jul16 (stinson wi)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
INVASIVE Apr29 Apr16 Mar17 Feb15 Jan19 (kendall elise)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 21% 3.70    
PAID IN FULL May25 May12 Mar25 Feb26 Feb17 (hartlage g)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 3.00    
SCR  IZEONDEC May18 Apr13 Feb24 Jan28 Jan13 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 124 6.00    
MOTOWN MISSILE May12 Mar19 Feb24 Jan20 Nov24 (wong jon)RODRIGUEZ A 113 4.00 38% 1.60    
RIVER BOY Apr13 Mar16 Jan29 Dec19 Nov25 (claire al)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 8% 11.90    
ONEPARTICULRHARBOR May20 May04 Apr08 Jan23   (glyshaw tim)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 12.00    
SCR  JACKS FIRE BALLS Mar31 Jan08 Nov27 Nov06 Oct26 (diodoro r)TORRES A 124 3.50    
 
ELP-8   06/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  YONO May12 Apr20 Mar04 Feb11 Jan25 (hiles a)LANERIE J 124 15.00    
FREEZE POP May20 Jan25 Dec30 Nov27 Nov06 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 124 3.50 24% 3.20    
BROOKLYN DIAMONDS Apr30 Feb24 Feb12 Jan07 May21 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 4.50    
TREATY Mar19 Feb12 Jan14 Jul10 Jun08 (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 10.00    
SOFT PANTS May08 Apr12 Mar12 Feb12 Jan19 (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 118 10.00 13% 6.50    
KEEN HEIR May11 Apr12 Feb26 Jun19 May19 (walden william)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.00 34% 1.90    
SCR  MR CREED May06 Apr15 Mar25 Feb12 Feb04 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
SCR  G T FIVE HUNDRED May28 May04 Apr16 Mar23 Feb24 (mason ing)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
TRIGGER HAPPY Jun02 May12 Mar22 Mar10 Feb25 (cano mun)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00    
 
ELP-9   06/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COASTAL CHARM Apr29 Apr07 Mar12 Feb17 Nov18 (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 122 10.00 13% 6.70    
POCA MUCHA Oct21 Sep14 Aug03 Jul10 Apr24 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.50 18% 4.50    
VALENTINA DAY May21 Apr21 Mar24 Oct21 Sep24 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00    
CANDY LIGHT May21 Dec26 Nov13 Oct13 Sep06 (motion g)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 39% 1.50    
VIBURNUM May27 Apr01 Dec17 Sep13 Sep01 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 8.00    
ARM CANDY (IRE) May21 Apr21 Apr01 Jan26 Dec15 (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00    
QUEROBIN DOURADA Apr15 Feb24 Dec30 Dec01 Oct16 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 5.00    
OMIXOCHITL Feb04 Dec26 Nov04 Oct13 Sep06 (gutierrez)TORRES A 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MISTY VEIL May19 Apr07 Mar05 Feb12 Jan07 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50    
 
ELP-10   06/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GET BY May19 Apr19 Mar31 Oct01 Aug27 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 4.50 33% 2.10    
JACKIE'S SPIRIT May12 Apr08 Mar26 Sep28   (vaccarezza ca)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.00 24% 3.10    
WITCH OF NOVEMBER May19 Apr01 Mar15     (mccarthy micha)CHUAN MARTIN 118 6.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  MAMBA OUT May02         (hill f)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
MOTOWN MIKA Apr26 Mar31 Jan25 Dec03 Oct21 (o'connor robe)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
MELINOE Apr23 Feb16 Jan15     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
HURRICANE LASSIE May02         (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 118 15.00    
DREAM TRAP May12         (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
SCR  GOOD TOHAVE AROUND May04 Apr15 Nov02     (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00    
10  CORNER KICK May16 Feb26 Dec15 Nov16   (devaux ch)TORRES A 118 5.00    
SCR  PROMISEMEPARADISE May02 Mar02       (baker jame)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
12  ISABEL DE CLARE Jun02 Feb04 Jan04 Dec14 Nov17 (seglin e)AYALA ISAIAS 124 50.00 5% 19.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.