Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 08, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/4/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/3/1)-(5/4/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/3/1)-(5/4/3/1)-(5/4/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/3/1)-(2/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/3/1)-(2/7/3)-(8/11/10/1/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/3)-(2/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/3)-(2/7/3)-(2/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/7/3)-(8/11/10/1/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/7/3)-(8/11/10/1/7)-(2/3/9/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (8/11/10/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/11/10/1/7)-(8/11/10/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/11/10/1/7)-(8/11/10/1/7)-(8/11/10/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/11/10/1/7)-(2/3/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/11/10/1/7)-(2/3/9/5)-(2/3/4/1/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-4   WIN (2/3/9/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/9/5)-(2/3/9/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/9/5)-(2/3/9/5)-(2/3/9/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/9/5)-(2/3/4/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/3/9/5)-(2/3/4/1/7)-(5/2/1/10/3) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-5   WIN (2/3/4/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/3/4/1/7)-(2/3/4/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/3/4/1/7)-(2/3/4/1/7)-(2/3/4/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/3/4/1/7)-(5/2/1/10/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/3/4/1/7)-(5/2/1/10/3)-(5/6/3/1) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-6   WIN (5/2/1/10/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/2/1/10/3)-(5/2/1/10/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/2/1/10/3)-(5/2/1/10/3)-(5/2/1/10/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/2/1/10/3)-(5/6/3/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/2/1/10/3)-(5/6/3/1)-(8/4/2/7/1) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (5/6/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/3/1)-(5/6/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/3/1)-(5/6/3/1)-(5/6/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/6/3/1)-(8/4/2/7/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/6/3/1)-(8/4/2/7/1)-(8/2/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (8/4/2/7/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/4/2/7/1)-(8/4/2/7/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/4/2/7/1)-(8/4/2/7/1)-(8/4/2/7/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/4/2/7/1)-(8/2/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (8/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/2/6)-(8/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/2/6)-(8/2/6)-(8/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/08/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONEY RUN Oct26 Sep28 Aug22 Aug07 Jul13 (heitzman eric)ROCCO S 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  IT'SFIFTYSHADETIME Oct13 May19 Apr26 Apr07 Feb22 (reavis mic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 12.00    
3  MIRANDA'S ROCKY Oct07 Sep09 Aug20 Jul16 Jun25 (wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 121 3.00 16% 5.10    
4  MIDNIGHT TANGO Jul27 Jun15 May18 Feb24 Dec20 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 18% 4.50    
5  LADY MERCEDES Sep29 Sep05 Aug18 Jul13 Jun22 (forster t)LANERIE J 121 6.00 21% 3.90    
6  COINMAKER Sep04 Aug07 Jun27 May19 Mar21 (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 121 15.00    
7  A NEW PEACE Sep20 Sep07 Aug22 Aug14 Jul07 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 6.00    
8  MERCY WARREN Sep15 Jun06 Feb09 Jan13 Dec23 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50    
 
CD-2   11/08/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MIYAGI Nov19 Oct07       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  TRUST ISSUES Sep22 Aug31 Jul28 Dec14 Nov10 (lovell michelle)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 52% 0.90    
  (by ENTICED out of INDIAN CEE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
3  TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF Sep08 Aug26 Aug01 Jul07 Jun11 (beckman d )LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CARRINGTON EVENT by STREET BOSS)
4  BRAVEN Mar07 Feb16       (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 10.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of LETCHWORTH by TIZNOW)
5  GYPSY MISCHIEF         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SPIRIT OF THE DAWN by MALIBU MOON)
6  WHAT A BLESSING         (mackey wayne)MONCADA IRVING 115 8.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of IRISH BLESSING by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
7  EVAN ON EARTH May04 Jan27 Dec30 Nov12   (foley greg)TORRES A 122 3.50 16% 5.40    
  (by CONGRATS out of JOSAKA by SMART STRIKE)
 
CD-3   11/08/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REMAINING NAMELESS Oct28 Oct02 Sep19 Sep06 Aug17 (jazdzewski )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00 15% 5.80    
SCR  GOLDEN GOAL Sep26         (demeritte larry)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
SCR  MIRACLE ON CENTRAL         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
4  RULOOKINFORRAYRAY Jul22         (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 112 15.00    
SCR  SHRINER Aug29         (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 119 30.00    
SCR  DEEPLY HIDDEN Oct16 Jul20 Jun22 Jun08 May26 (sweezey kent)ORTIZ L 119 3.50    
7  WONDERFUL NEWS         (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  TUSCALOOSA Oct06         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 30% 2.40    
9  PRAY FOR THE BEAR Oct20 Sep18       (bahena ismael)ROMAN A 119 30.00    
10  GRAND ACADEMIC         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 15% 5.60    
11  ANYTIME ANYWHERE Sep05 Jul22 Jun24 May30   (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 16% 5.20    
12  BLAKELY'S BOY Oct08 Sep17 Aug10     (nesbitt a)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 119 30.00    
13  CHASIN' CHAFFIN Oct15         (cunningham)ASMUSSEN J 119 20.00    
SCR  STAY FROSTY Oct26         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
SCR  HAUNTED FLAME Aug19 Jul05       (lynch brian )MONCADA IRVING 112 12.00    
 
CD-4   11/08/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TKAC Oct12 Sep07 Aug01     (correas ignac)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50    
2  LORD BARANOF Sep22         (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.50 62% 0.60    
3  SUNNY MAGIC Sep22 Jul14 Jun08     (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 4.00 7% 13.10    
4  TRACK RANGER Sep25 Aug20 Jul20     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00    
5  LUMBER LEGACY Oct16 Sep01 Aug11     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HUEVOS D'ORO Sep29 Sep12       (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
7  CONSECRATED Oct16 Sep27       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
8  ROCK SOLO Sep27         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
9  BAYTOWN BEATLE Oct16 Sep29 Sep10 Aug20 Aug10 (mcentee pau)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   11/08/2024 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOOK TO THE CROSS Oct19 Sep05 Aug10     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00 7% 14.00    
2  GIOCOSO Oct06 Sep14 Aug05 Jul07 Jun20 (desormeaux j)TORRES A 122 2.50 35% 1.80    
3  MESERO Oct05 Sep14 Jul29     (romans dale)LANERIE J 120 4.00 22% 3.50    
4  LUCKY MISCHIEF Oct12 Sep11 Aug18 Jul29   (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 8% 11.20    
5  ROYAL BRO Oct03 Sep08 Aug26 Jul29   (divito ja)TORRES A 120 10.00    
6  PAPIAMENTO Oct06 Aug24 Jul20     (beckman d )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 12.00    
7  BLAMEITONBOURBON Oct01         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 15.00 6% 16.20    
8  STASHU Oct17 Sep11 Aug24 Jul22   (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00    
9  BOY BOY Oct12 Sep07 Aug05     (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 122 20.00    
10  VAMOS CARLITOS Sep23         (thomas jo)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 10.00    
11  WITHOUT CAUTION Sep28 Aug29 Jul20     (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 6.00    
12  FRONT END Aug18         (crichton ro)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 30.00    
SCR  ENTERDADRAGON Oct12 Sep21 Sep01 Jul28 May11 (d'angelo jose )ORTIZ L 120 20.00    
SCR  ASHLEY'S ARCHER Oct06 Sep15 Aug18     (casse ma)SANTANA JR 122 3.00    
SCR  THE COUNT IS ON Oct23 Aug21 Aug01 Jul06   (corrigan jim)MORALES EDGAR 120 20.00    
SCR  MISSION IMPROBABLE Oct07 Sep25 Jul02 Jun05   (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 120 20.00    
 
CD-6   11/08/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RISKY WAVE Oct20         (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 112 10.00 10% 9.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of RUN A RISK by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  MIMI'S GRACE Oct19         (shirer matt )TORRES A 119 5.00 15% 5.80    
  (by UNIFIED out of TAURASI by MINESHAFT)
3  MISS ARTOIS         (mccarthy )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of TIZ FELICITY by SCAT DADDY)
4  FALLON Oct03         (demeritte larry)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of FIGHTER WING by EMPIRE MAKER)
5  PARIS LILY Sep29         (walsh brendan )ORTIZ L 119 4.50 46% 1.20    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of STORM LILY by STORM CAT)
SCR  FOIE GRAS         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of TABLE MANNERS by ALGORITHMS)
7  CENTIMORGAN Oct18         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of GENEALOGIST by STREET BOSS)
8  GOING TO THE SUN Oct10 Sep20       (colebrook ben)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
  (by UPSTART out of CASTLE ROAD by BELLAMY ROAD)
9  DROP THE HAMMER         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SECRET QUALITY by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
10  JEWEL BOX Sep29         (wilkes ia)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of IVORY EMPRESS by SEEKING THE GOLD)
11  FORMAGGIO Oct18 Sep22 Aug25     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of LAQUEZZA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
12  SOMERVILLE         (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of PATRONA MARGARITA by SPECIAL RATE)
 
CD-7   11/08/2024 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SULTRY LASS Sep13 Aug25 Jun30 Jun09 May03 (lovell miche)TORRES A 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  BOSS LADY BAILEY Oct13 Aug29 Jul25 Jun21 May11 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00    
3  UNDER THE PALMS Oct02 Jul31 Jul06 Jun01 Apr26 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50 19% 4.30    
4  CAT'S CAVE Oct11 Aug25 Jul15 Jun01 Dec13 (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 10.00    
5  ENCLOSURE Oct11 Sep13 Aug10 Nov19 Aug31 (mott i)ORTIZ L 121 2.50 28% 2.50    
6  PEIGNOIR Oct17 Sep20 Aug05 Jul05 Nov10 (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.00 28% 2.60    
7  MILES OF SMILES Sep18 Aug24 Jul20 Jun15 May18 (orseno f)LANERIE J 121 20.00    
8  AMBER CASCADE Sep20 Aug10 Jun26 Nov01 Sep23 (devaux ch)TORRES A 123 3.50    
 
CD-8   11/08/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SURF CITY Oct11 Sep11 Jul20 Jun27 May26 (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  UPSIDE POTENTIAL Apr20 Mar01       (kenneally )HERNANDEZ J 120 12.00 10% 9.20    
3  ALEMAN May28 May13 Mar23 Feb22 Feb02 (jarvis kathy)MOJICA JR 120 30.00    
4  GLACIAL POWER Oct11 Sep11 Aug05 Jun27 Jun05 (camejo m)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 22% 3.50    
5  COMMITTEE OF ONE Oct11 Aug31 Aug05 Jul04 Jun16 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 10.00    
6  ONE GIANT LEAP Sep21 Aug19 Jun07 Apr26 Nov10 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 15.00    
7  JEFE DE OBRA (CHI) Apr21 Dec02 Oct26     (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  DEMOLITION DUKE Sep11 Aug05 Jun30 May17 Apr21 (walsh brendan )ORTIZ L 120 2.50 42% 1.40    
9  UNCLE WILLIAM Oct19 Sep22 Aug10 Jun30 Jan06 (guida e)LANERIE J 120 15.00    
10  GRANDE TORTUGON (CHI) Jul02 May20 Apr21 Mar15 Feb16 (walsh d)ACHARD ALEX 120 30.00    
11  ALDER Sep21 May26 Mar24 Jan18 Dec22 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 118 12.00    
12  POLSTER Oct04 Sep05 Aug19 Jul14 Jun16 (brown h)ASHTON GAVIN 120 30.00    
SCR  COLORADO CRUISER Feb03 Dec26 Nov10 Oct21 Sep30 (o'neill do)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
SCR  LEAD FOOT Nov02 Oct17 Aug12 Jul28 Jun14 (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 118 30.00    
SCR  PRESSURE May25 May03 Apr12 Mar24 Mar02 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 30.00    
SCR  CIGARETTE BOAT Sep27 Sep01 Jul12 Jun08 May17 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 120 4.00    
 
CD-9   11/08/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PAINT BALLER         (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 122 10.00    
  (by PAYNTER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  BADGE OF WAR Oct18 Sep08 Aug08 Jun30 Apr26 (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 15% 5.70    
  (by WAR FRONT out of BROOCH by HALO)
3  KENMORE WEST Sep28         (calhoun will)TORRES A 122 20.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of IT'S BEEN NICE by CREATIVE CAUSE)
SCR  VELOCIRAPTOR Sep28 Aug04       (casse mark)ORTIZ L 122 3.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of LETS DANCE CHARLIE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  ANTHONIAN Sep29 Sep10       (morse l)LANERIE J 122 4.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of MISS ANDORRA by MALIBU MOON)
6  GENERAL ISSUE (FR) Oct17 Nov30 Nov09     (cook brian)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 8.00 7% 12.90    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MY GI GI by E DUBAI)
7  KOSHER CAPONE Oct30 Sep28       (johnston la)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of EXPERIENCE by EXCELLENT ART (GB))
8  WALSTIB Aug26 Aug10       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 57% 0.80    
  (by UNIFIED out of TERESKA by TALE OF THE CAT)
9  GARDEN LEAVE Jun22 May19 Apr14     (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
  (by CURLIN out of ON LEAVE by WAR FRONT)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.