Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Wednesday - October 09, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (4/3/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/7/2)-(4/3/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/7/2)-(4/3/7/2)-(4/3/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/7/2)-(7/12/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/7/2)-(7/12/10)-(1/4/2/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-2   WIN (7/12/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/12/10)-(7/12/10/11/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/12/10)-(7/12/10/11/2)-(7/12/10/11/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/12/10)-(1/4/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/12/10)-(1/4/2/6)-(1/2/3/5/12) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-3   WIN (1/4/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/2/6)-(1/4/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/2/6)-(1/4/2/6)-(1/4/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/2/6)-(1/2/3/5/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/4/2/6)-(1/2/3/5/12)-(14/2/12/15/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-4   WIN (1/2/3/5/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/2/3/5/12)-(1/2/3/5/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/2/3/5/12)-(1/2/3/5/12)-(1/2/3/5/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/2/3/5/12)-(14/2/12/15/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3/5/12)-(14/2/12/15/8)-(8/11/12) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-5   WIN (14/2/12/15/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (14/2/12/15/8)-(14/2/12/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (14/2/12/15/8)-(14/2/12/3/8)-(14/2/12/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (14/2/12/15/8)-(8/11/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (14/2/12/15/8)-(8/11/12)-(1/5/3) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
KEE-6   WIN (8/11/12) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/11/12)-(8/11/12/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/11/12)-(8/11/12/6/5)-(8/11/12/6/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/11/12)-(1/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/11/12)-(1/5/3)-(1/5/7/6/14/11/2) 63 $1.00 $63.00 
KEE-7   WIN (1/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/3)-(1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/3)-(1/5/7/6/14/11/2) 21 $1.00 $21.00 
KEE-8   WIN (1/5/7/6/14/11/2) 7 $2.00 $14.00 
    EXA (1/5/7/6/14/11/2)-(1/5/6/14/11) 28 $1.00 $28.00 
    TRI (1/5/7/6/14/11/2)-(1/5/6/14/11)-(1/5/6/14/11) 84 $0.50 $42.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   10/09/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEVER SWAY Aug09 May03 Mar24 Feb18 Dec10 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 6.00    
2  SIMPLE SOUVENIR Sep08 Aug09 Jun22 May04 Feb29 (synnefias pan)JARA FERNANDO 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  FOREVER HOME Sep20 Sep03 Aug07 Jul17 Jun21 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 123 1.80 21% 3.80    
4  MAZOKU Sep20 Aug12 Jul13 Jun21 May25 (butcher j)BEALMEAR C 116 3.50 33% 2.00    
5  SEQUIN LADY Sep20 Aug04 Jun07 Apr24 Apr03 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 4.00    
6  PROTOMAGIC Jun21 May25 May11 Apr10 Mar27 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 8.00    
7  SAMARITA Sep22 Aug25 Jul28 Jun21 Jun01 (rodriguez j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00 12% 7.30    
8  ELLA FRANCES Aug05 Apr30 Mar27 Feb29 Feb03 (beckman wh)TORRES A 121 10.00    
 
KEE-2   10/09/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  IDIOSYNCRASIES         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 121 6.00    
2  MALIBLUE Aug27 Aug17 Jul21 Jul06 Jun05 (foster er)TORRES A 121 8.00 ★    
3  EARLY MUNNY Aug04 May26 Mar22 Jan18 May18 (hancock joh)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 30.00    
SCR  COWBOY LUKE Sep22 Aug17 Jul24 May30 Apr24 (quartarolo)CORRALES GERARDO 121 30.00    
5  TIE BREAKER LENNIE Jul13 Jun23 Jun05 Mar13 Feb29 (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
SCR  D DAY Aug10 Jun27 Jun05     (atras rob)TORRES A 121 12.00    
7  RIVER RIDGE Jul13 Jun09 May04 Apr13   (campbell micha)ASHTON GAVIN 121 4.50 41% 1.40    
8  AFLEET VINTAGE         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00    
9  FLY BY NIGHT (NZ) Feb08         (ward a)FLORES R 121 20.00    
10  GRAND ILLUSION Aug06         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 121 15.00 9% 10.40    
11  SPINNING HEART Sep28 Aug08 Jul18 Jun08 Mar07 (robertson)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.00 ★    
12  MASKED MAN Aug18         (sacco gregory)ORTIZ JR 121 3.50 26% 2.90    
 
KEE-3   10/09/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INVULNERABLE Sep05 Jul22 Jun16 Jan28 Dec31 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 121 1.20 45% 1.20    
2  DUTCH MILLS Aug30 Aug03 Jul13 Jun13 Apr27 (compton greg)ORTIZ L 118 6.00 12% 7.30    
3  SOUND DOCTRINE Sep18 Aug05 Jun02 May17 Apr26 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 4.00    
4  IMPROBABLE JOURNEY Aug30 Jun16 May27 Mar09 Jul21 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00 18% 4.60    
5  NORMANDY HERO Sep18 Jul04 Jun05 Dec31 Nov25 (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50    
6  CREW DRAGON Sep21 Jul24 Jul03 Jun08 May25 (robertson)TORRES A 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  CHRYSO ALOGO Sep15 Aug05 Jul04 Jun20 May30 (vasque)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 118 15.00    
 
KEE-4   10/09/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($51K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAGE LEFT Sep19 Aug28 Mar02 Feb03 Dec30 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 2.00 44% 1.30    
2  TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGE Sep18 Jul29 Jun29 May26 Apr11 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 17% 4.80    
3  SIR OLLIE Sep18 Jul29 Jul06 May10 Feb15 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 10.00 10% 9.00    
4  JUST SAY WHEN Aug31 Aug22 Jan01 Dec02 Oct25 (stidham michae)ORTIZ L 121 8.00    
5  SANTA CRUISER Sep18 Apr04 Sep29 Sep17 Aug20 (van thoma)MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  APPEAL DENIED Jul15 Dec01 Nov05 Jun29 May21 (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 121 6.00    
7  VULCAN Aug26 Apr18 Mar03 Dec29 Dec16 (sims matt)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
8  UPSTRIKER Sep15 Aug26 Jul06 May19 May03 (vanden berg)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00    
SCR  METALLIC MAN Sep10 Aug17 Aug07 May29 Apr23 (matthews rand)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
10  LYKAN Aug24 Jul10 Jun28 Jun08 Mar17 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CALL ME ICE MAN Sep19 Jul25 Jun09 May12 Mar29 (campbell micha)ASHTON GAVIN 121 30.00    
SCR  MONTEREY PENINSULA Sep08 Aug04 Jun22 Jun01 May17 (martinez kell)GARCIA MARTIN 121 20.00    
13  EL CERRITO Sep18 Sep05 Aug10 Jul20 Jun08 (chavez manuel)MACHADO LUAN 121 30.00    
 
KEE-5   10/09/2024 5940ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STAY LOST Sep07 Aug13 Jul16 Jun28 Apr21 (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 124 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of DARCI'S DREAM by DARCI BRAHMA)
2  EL MEGEETH Mar10 Feb03 Jan07     (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 120 6.00 27% 2.70    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of AMOUR D'ETE by TIZNOW)
3  ADRASTEIA Sep05 Aug04 Jul15 Jun15 Mar28 (bogle fergus)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 4.50 ★    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of ARROSTOS by BODEMEISTER)
SCR  SHEZTHEFACTOR Sep01 Jul15 Jun26 Nov19 Oct21 (hamilton s)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 6.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of MY LUCKY SPELL by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
5  STEPHANIESWARRIOR Sep01 Aug19 Jul21 May25 Apr05 (capps a)GARCIA MARTIN 120 30.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of ANCIENT GODDESS by IFFRAAJ)
6  FIFTH OF MAY Aug31         (colebrook ben)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 5.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TIZ FASHIONABLE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
7  LADY MEIS (IRE) Sep05 Jul21 Jun15 May18   (schultz lind)GEROUX FLORENT 124 12.00    
  (by CAMELOT out of ASAWER by NYQUIST)
8  I AM THE SAUCE Sep01 Jul21 Jun28 May25   (lovell miche)TORRES A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of LIKE A QUEEN by CORINTHIAN (IRE))
9  RUNAWAY KITTEN Sep11 Aug11 Mar08 Jan28 Jan01 (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 120 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of EILEEN'S SONG by KITTEN'S JOY)
10  ESTUARY Aug31         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ASSATEAGUE by STORMY ATLANTIC)
11  ARGENTINIDAD Sep13 Aug07 Jun17 May25 Apr13 (seglin e)MORALES EDGAR 120 30.00    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of BELLE DE NUIT by GALILEO)
12  RACONTEUSE Sep05 Aug11 Jul04 Jun09 May09 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 8% 11.40    
  (by MITOLE out of FREE REIN by UNBRIDLED)
13  FEELING BEACHY Aug11 Jul05 Sep04     (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 6.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of FEELING BOSSY by COURAGEOUS CAT)
14  ENCHANT Aug11         (walsh brendan )PRAT FLAVIEN 120 2.50 37% 1.70    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of COACHWHIP by SO YOU THINK (NZ))
SCR  WEIGHTED AVERAGE Sep15 Sep23 Aug13     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 3.50 7% 13.80    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of CHARREADA by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  UNDERTHEMISTLETOE Sep05 Jul23       (mott i)ORTIZ L 120 20.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of MISTLETOE by PAYNTER)
 
KEE-6   10/09/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WORLD BEATER Sep12         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 30.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of DABINETT by BLAME)
2  DISCOTHEQUE Aug24         (maker michae)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
  (by CONNECT out of NEW HOPE ROAD by QUALITY ROAD)
3  WHISKEY SHOT Aug26         (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of LORELEI TRUE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
4  OTTER MISCHIEF Sep12         (hiles je)SANTANA JR 119 30.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of TITLE WINNER by TIZ WONDERFUL)
5  FEVER NIGHT Sep21         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 ★    
  (by CURLIN out of POR QUE' TE QUIERO by A.P. INDY)
6  BRACKET BUSTER Sep12 Aug07       (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 119 20.00 ★    
  (by VEKOMA out of SPRING DANCE by DANCE WITH RAVENS)
7  FREAKY Aug24         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ENCHANTED GHOST by GHOSTZAPPER)
8  KINETIC CONTROL Sep14 Aug12       (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 1.60 43% 1.30    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of DEVIOUS D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  COOPER Sep14 Jul20       (mott i)ORTIZ L 119 4.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of APIARY by BERNARDINI)
10  MONET'S MAGIC Sep14 Aug12       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of RONTOS LILY by BIG DRAMA)
11  MORLOCK Aug26 Jul20 Jun13     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 35% 1.90    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ST. JOHN'S RIVER by INCLUDE)
12  PERFECT FORCE Sep12 Aug17 Jul20 Jun23   (lukas w)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CUABA by SMOKE GLACKEN)
SCR  SEATTLE ROAD (ARG) Jul27         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of SEATTLE SLANG by TAPIT)
SCR  SPURGEON Aug29 Jul27       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of LIPSTICK CITY by CITY ZIP)
 
KEE-7   10/09/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($120K) 3 F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILVER ROSE Sep15 Aug05 Jun19 May25 Dec09 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 48% 1.10    
2  SING A LITTLE SONG Aug23 Jul07 Jun19 May03 Apr07 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 6.00    
3  LADY MOSCATO Aug31 Jul12 Jun28 May17 May03 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  VICOUNTESS Sep01 Apr07 Mar01 Feb10 Dec29 (rice adam)ORTIZ L 118 12.00    
5  BEDAZZLE 'EM Aug29 Jul05 Jun09 May01 Apr05 (mott william)TORRES A 120 4.00 19% 4.40    
6  MISS ENCHANTED Aug31 Aug03 Jul06 Jun06 Feb18 (romans dale)LANERIE J 120 1.60    
 
KEE-8   10/09/2024 5610ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREEN LIGHT Aug24 Aug03 Jun29 May18 Apr14 (brisset rodolp)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 31% 2.20    
SCR  NINJA STAR Sep20 Sep04 Aug17 Jul27 Apr12 (rice kevin)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  BIG TO DO Aug15 Jun13 May05 Mar28 Mar01 (wismer g)SANTANA JR 118 30.00    
4  BOLTAGE Feb17 Jan06 Oct08 Sep10 Aug24 (stidham mich)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00    
5  KATHEEB Sep12 Jul27 Jun13 Mar08 Jan13 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 5.00 23% 3.30    
6  CLEVER MISCHIEF Sep05 Jul12 Jun07     (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50 7% 12.80    
SCR  BORN FLASHY Sep08 Mar23       (wilkes ia)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 10.00 9% 10.70    
SCR  THORNBURY (IRE) Sep07 Apr06 Mar02 Feb17 Dec23 (mott william)TORRES A 120 10.00    
9  SOVEREIGNS JOY Aug24 Jul15 May29     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
10  EL REY REY Sep11 Jul21 Jun13 May12 Mar29 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
11  OCEAN VICTORY Mar24 Jan21 Dec23 Nov25   (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BLACK RAIN Jul21 Jun08 Sep14 Aug20   (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 122 8.00    
13  ROUNDTOP Aug29 Jul25 Jun12 Oct21 Sep02 (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00    
14  OVER AND OLLIE Aug31 Jul12 Jun16 Sep03 Aug19 (stall alb)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 4.00 6% 15.90    
SCR  COUNT DRACULA Sep11 May05 Apr20 Mar28 Mar02 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
16  SAMBALOVER Sep05 Aug13 Jun11 Sep10 Aug03 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.