Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - December 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/5)-(1/4/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/4/5)-(1/4/5/8)-(1/4/5/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/4/5)-(1/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/4/5)-(1/2/3)-(3/8/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-2   WIN (1/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/3)-(3/8/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3)-(3/8/1)-(6/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/8/1)-(3/8/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/8/1)-(3/8/1/4)-(3/8/1/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/8/1)-(6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/8/1)-(6/1)-(13/1/12/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-4   WIN (6/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/1)-(6/1/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/1)-(6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/1)-(13/1/12/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/1)-(13/1/12/7)-(1/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
AQU-5   WIN (13/1/12/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (13/1/12/7)-(13/1/12/7/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (13/1/12/7)-(13/1/12/7/10)-(13/1/12/7/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (13/1/12/7)-(1/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (13/1/12/7)-(1/6)-(2/5/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-6   WIN (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/6)-(1/4/6/11/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (1/6)-(1/4/6/11/5)-(1/4/6/11/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/6)-(2/5/4)-(1/4/8) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-7   WIN (2/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/4)-(2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/5/4)-(1/4/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
AQU-8   WIN (1/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/8)-(1/4/7/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/8)-(1/4/7/8/6)-(1/4/7/8/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   12/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($48K) 2 F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BY THE GLASS Nov24 Oct14       (dutrow richard )RUIZ ELISEO 114 5.00 27% 2.80    
2  UNION BELLE Nov12 Oct14       (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00    
3  TO BE LOVED BY YOU Nov12 Oct01       (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 119 12.00    
4  EXTRA DIRTY Dec01 Nov24 Oct14 Aug13   (chatte)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 8.00 25% 3.00    
5  CHA CHA CHUKKA Nov04 Sep28       (rodriguez rudy )CANCEL ERIC 119 6.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  WAKE UP LAUREN Nov03 Sep17       (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 3.50    
SCR  CELESTIAL EXPRESS Nov03 Oct14       (contessa g)RIVERA R 114 12.00    
8  JUST MUSIC Nov04 Oct14 Jul30     (terranova j)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 2.50 ★    
9  THIRTEEN RED FLAGS         (chichakly am)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 20.00    
 
AQU-2   12/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 MUDDY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($95K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WINIT Dec02 Nov02 Feb05 Jan06 Nov27 (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 123 2.50 51% 1.00    
2  KINETIC SKY Nov17 Sep21 Sep15 Jun15 Apr30 (dutrow richard)LEZCANO JOSE 121 2.50 22% 3.60    
3  BEACHWALKER Dec15 Oct14 Oct04 Aug05 Jul05 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  FILM STAR Nov24 Oct28 Oct01 Sep17 Sep03 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 125 2.00    
5  TABEGUACHE Nov03 Aug26 Jul19 Jun24 May25 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 122 6.00    
6  UNBRIDLED BOMBER Nov26 Oct26 Sep02 Jul08 May05 (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 125 5.00    
 
AQU-3   12/28/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($35K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANILEATE Nov26 Oct12 Sep03 Aug11 Jul27 (ferraro ja)RIVERA R 117 12.00 11% 7.80    
SCR  IT TAKES HEART Jul27 Jun17 Apr23 Mar25 Jan28 (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.60    
3  CURLINS CHOIR Dec17 May20 Mar30 Mar03 Jan26 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.00 38% 1.60    
4  SMOKIN' HOT KITTY Dec03 Nov17 Oct20 Aug20 Jul13 (de horacio)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00 ★    
5  DIVINE CROSS Dec17 Nov30 Sep14 Aug16 Jan22 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 10.00    
SCR  ROMAN GODDESS Dec14 Oct26 Oct07 Sep14 Jul08 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00    
7  LOCKBOX Nov13 Oct23 Oct04 Jul12 Jul04 (d'alessandro )SILVERA RUBEN 120 15.00    
8  FANCY FELINE Dec15 Nov13 Oct23 Oct04 Sep02 (sells rachel)CANCEL ERIC 120 10.00 22% 3.60    
9  ROJA LIGERA Dec03 Nov19 Oct22 Sep22 Aug06 (follett norman)RUIZ ELISEO 115 20.00    
 
AQU-4   12/28/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 MUDDY Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMANDA'S FOLLY Oct29 Sep04 Aug27 Jul26 Jul02 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 4.00 18% 4.50    
2  TONED UP Nov25 Oct27 Oct05 Sep04 Jul30 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 121 6.00 ★    
SCR  SWEET WILLEMINA Dec01 Nov11 Oct27 Sep20 Sep04 (lake scott )MCCARTHY TREVOR 125 5.00    
4  CRYPTO MAMA Nov25 Oct06 Sep17 Jul02 Apr29 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 4.50    
5  JUST KATHERINE Nov25 Sep23 Sep04 Jul14 Jun16 (jimenez l)CANCEL ERIC 120 1.80    
6  INTO HAPPINESS Nov25 Nov05 Oct04 Aug09 Jul13 (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 123 3.50 34% 2.00    
 
AQU-5   12/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOUTH STREET Dec03 Nov11 Nov02 Oct07 Aug16 (noda orlando)DAVIS DYLAN 121 5.00 20% 4.00    
SCR  UNCLE WATER FLOW Dec03 Nov11 Oct15 May11 Dec09 (reynolds j)USKE S 121 10.00    
SCR  ARREBATO Oct07 Sep16 Aug31 Jul04 Jun25 (chatterpaul na)LUZZI J 120 8.00    
4  CONNECT THE BROCKS Oct31 Oct02 Jul25 Jun27 Jun05 (bar)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 30.00    
SCR  FLASH KISS Dec17 Nov17 Oct14 Apr20 Dec16 (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 12.00    
6  SORPRESO Dec08 Nov17 Oct24 Oct11 Sep11 (delaur)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 30.00    
7  PROVEN HOPE Oct15 Oct04 Sep09 Aug13 Jul29 (barker edwar)HARKIE K 123 12.00 13% 6.60    
8  SCOTTO Dec17 Nov11 Oct15 Oct04 Sep14 (jones ed)DAVIS A 121 50.00    
9  MAMA BANNED ME Dec03 Nov11 Nov02 Oct06 Aug16 (follett norman)RUIZ ELISEO 115 30.00    
10  DADS GOOD RUNNER Dec09 Dec03 Nov25 Oct04 Sep17 (fisher lin)MITCHELL RICHARD 121 15.00 ★    
SCR  OPPORTUNITY SET Dec01 Nov09 Oct15 Sep14 Aug04 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 118 4.50    
12  MEMPHIS Dec15 Nov09 Oct21 Aug12 Jul19 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50 17% 4.80    
13  DEPUTY CONNECT Dec01 Nov02 Oct19 Sep01 Aug10 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 123 6.00 28% 2.50    
SCR  PAPI ON ICE Oct04 Aug10 Jul19 Jun24 Jun01 (persaud ran)PAREDES JHOVANY 116 50.00    
 
AQU-6   12/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KENTUCKY JOKER Nov10 Oct21 Jun25 Mar04 Jan28 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.50    
1A  DARK VECTOR Dec02 Oct26 Aug25 Jul08 Jun10 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 74% 0.30    
SCR  PETROLO Nov10 Oct16 Aug19 Feb25 Dec31 (bond harol)RIVERA R 115 30.00    
SCR  NOTAH Aug26 Jun17 May29 Apr08 Feb12 (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 8.00    
4  CAPONE Nov24 Oct22 Sep16 Sep17 Aug13 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 ★    
5  QUICK HAMMER Nov24 Sep16 Jul30 Jul08 Oct29 (summers chad)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00 ★    
6  ICE ROAD Nov25 Oct21 Aug31 Aug12 Jul03 (walder r)CANCEL ERIC 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  MUDVILLE NINE Nov16 Nov02 Oct08 Aug20 Jul30 (rodriguez r)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 15.00    
8  SCREAMING UNCLE Dec16 Nov24 Oct13 Aug31 Aug11 (englehart ch)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 10.00    
9  PINE VALLEY Dec16 Nov10 Nov02 Sep28 Sep11 (jones eduard)HARKIE K 120 30.00    
10  GOOD RAPPORT Dec09 Nov02 Oct15 Sep14 Aug20 (begg j)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 10.00    
11  JUNGFRAU Sep17 Jun02 Apr01 Feb11 Dec31 (cox h)SILVERA RUBEN 118 6.00 ★    
 
AQU-7   12/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC11 MUDDY Bay Ridge Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAIRO SUGAR Dec01 Oct29 Oct06 Jul24 Jul02 (abreu jorge )CASTILLO ISAAC 120 10.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SPUN SUGAR by AWESOME AGAIN)
2  FINGAL'S CAVE Oct22 Aug26 Jul29 Jun25 May21 (donk david)LEZCANO JOSE 121 2.00 63% 0.60    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of BARBIE ON A BUDGET by MINESHAFT)
3  VENTI VALENTINE Dec02 Oct29 Oct02 Aug09 Jun24 (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 126 2.50    
  (by FIRING LINE out of GLORY GOLD by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
4  SWEETIE Dec16 Oct29 Sep14 Jul03 Jun15 (sciacc)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EFFINEX out of MARGIES SMILE by WHEELAWAY)
5  BUSTIN BAY Dec03 Nov25 Oct27 Sep24 Aug24 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 121 5.00 12% 7.50    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  KNOW IT ALL AUDREY Oct29 Oct04 Aug09 Jul20 May26 (barrera s)DAVIS DYLAN 126 4.00    
  (by SHACKLEFORD out of KNOW IT ALL ANNA by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
SCR  SWEET MYSTERY Nov26 Oct29 Oct05 Aug24 Jul26 (quick patri)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 8.00    
  (by CUPID out of FANFIRE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
 
AQU-8   12/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 2 F PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HANDLE ON YOU Dec01 Oct29 Oct01 Aug30   (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 119 2.50 58% 0.70    
2  WISE CONVERSATION Dec10 Nov09 Oct01 Sep01 Jul09 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 119 10.00    
3  DACTILOGRAFA Dec16 Nov19       (jimenez l)RUIZ ELISEO 114 20.00    
4  LOVE LIKE CRAZY Dec03         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 119 3.00 18% 4.60    
5  SONG OF SOLOMINI Oct20 Oct01       (englehart c)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 20.00    
6  DAME CATHERINE Nov24 Nov02 Sep28     (levine)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 8.00 ★    
7  MIA NIPOTINA Dec03 Oct22 Oct01     (sells rachel)CANCEL ERIC 119 4.50 ★    
8  BORNFORGREATNESS Nov24 Nov09 Oct20 Sep15 Aug13 (hills a)DAVIS DYLAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  NICOLENA P. Nov06 Oct16 Sep27     (sells rache)PAREDES JHOVANY 112 30.00    
10  BELLS TOLLING Dec03 Nov02 Oct01     (levine bruce)LUZZI J 119 12.00    
11  MOTHER MARY Nov24 Nov09 Sep15 Sep01   (brown br)DAVIS A 119 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.