Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Ellis Park
Saturday - July 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

ELP-1   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/4)-(5/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(5/1/4/7)-(7/10/1/2/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-2   WIN (5/1/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/4/7)-(7/10/1/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4/7)-(7/10/1/2/6)-(5/6/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-3   WIN (7/10/1/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/10/1/2/6)-(7/10/1/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/10/1/2/6)-(7/10/1/2/6)-(7/10/1/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/10/1/2/6)-(5/6/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/10/1/2/6)-(5/6/3)-(1/6/9/5/7) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/3)-(5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/3)-(1/6/9/5/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/6/3)-(1/6/9/5/7)-(10/3/7/9/11) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-5   WIN (1/6/9/5/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/6/9/5/7)-(1/6/9/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/6/9/5/7)-(1/6/9/5/7)-(1/6/9/5/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/6/9/5/7)-(10/3/7/9/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/6/9/5/7)-(10/3/7/9/11)-(9/6/8/5) 100 $1.00 $300 
ELP-6   WIN (10/3/7/9/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/3/7/9/11)-(10/3/7/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/3/7/9/11)-(10/3/7/9/11)-(10/3/7/9/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/3/7/9/11)-(9/6/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/3/7/9/11)-(9/6/8/5)-(9/1/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-7   WIN (9/6/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/6/8/5)-(9/6/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/6/8/5)-(9/6/8/5)-(9/6/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/6/8/5)-(9/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/6/8/5)-(9/1/8)-(5/10/7/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-8   WIN (9/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/1/8)-(9/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/1/8)-(9/1/8)-(9/1/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/1/8)-(5/10/7/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ELP-9   WIN (5/10/7/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/10/7/9)-(5/10/7/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/10/7/9)-(5/10/7/9)-(5/10/7/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
ELP-1   07/22/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RUN CECIL         (newton troy)BEJARANO R 119 6.00    
I FEELUCKY TONITE         (hancock a)STEVENS C 119 8.00 14% 6.10    
DUNPHY Jun04 May11 Apr26     (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 3.00    
MY BROTHER CHARLIE         (waltz brian)COURT K 119 8.00 14% 6.10    
PROFESSIONAL GRADE         (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 5.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE Jul12 Jun16 May04     (ennis joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 1.20    
 
ELP-2   07/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BOLDISH Apr15 Feb04 Nov16 Nov02 Sep25 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 29% 2.50    
LONGSHADOW Jun22 May26 Apr19 Mar17 Sep08 (danner kelsey)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 3.50    
CRIMINAL DEFENSE Jun24 Mar22 Feb26 Feb03 Dec19 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 123 6.00    
NORDIC LIGHT Jun10 Apr29 Apr13 Mar15 Feb11 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 123 6.00 6% 17.10    
SANTA CRUISER Jul08 Jun17 May14 Mar05 Feb17 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 116 3.00 38% 1.60    
HEY BOSS Jun10 Apr02 Feb17 Feb01 Nov27 (gibson de)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 2.50    
EASY BIG BOY Jun24 Jun10 May28 Mar10 Oct02 (hewitt mich)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-3   07/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RATE CONFIRMATION Jun16 May03 Mar24 Mar11 Jan20 (foley greg)LANERIE J 119 4.50 5% 19.00    
  (by CONNECT out of ECHO DUST by BERNARDINI)
KING ME Jun18 Sep30       (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of EVEN SONG by STREET CRY (IRE))
ACE THE RACE         (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 114 30.00    
  (by OVERANALYZE out of NEW TWIST MISS by TALE OF THE CAT)
OWN THE FIELD Jun10 May13 Nov23 Aug31   (amoss thomas )GILLIGAN JACK 119 8.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of TERMINOLOGY by BERNARDINI)
AUTOCRAT         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of ONE TUF KITTY by BERNARDINI)
MOUNT KISCO Oct22 Sep22 Aug21 Aug07 Jul03 (howell jess)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of PRINCESS KAREN by STAY THIRSTY)
BIRTHDAY MUNNINGS Nov27 Oct30 Sep24 Aug12   (walsh p)BEJARANO R 119 2.00 41% 1.50    
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
FLINT EAST WOULD         (kerrick lacy)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 30.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of PRINCESS AUBREY by ATTICUS)
ZAPHOD Jun24 Jun04       (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of DANCING ANNA by CUVEE)
10  PASS LINE Jul02 Jun15       (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.50 31% 2.20    
  (by STRAIGHT LINE out of OVER AGAIN by SHARP HUMOR)
SCR  MO MOVES May18 Mar23 Feb25 Jan20 Nov18 (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of CLOSING MOVE by BERNARDINI)
SCR  BATTLE BORN Apr22 Mar04 Jan26 Dec28   (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 20.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of MINE FOR KEEPS by KOKAND)
 
ELP-4   07/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MO TOWN MAYHEM Jun24 May28 Apr01     (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.50    
AIN'T BROKE Jun25 Jun02 Apr27 Mar15 Feb16 (calhoun william)LANERIE J 123 5.00    
PIGALLE Jun24 Jun01 Mar16 Feb16 Jan18 (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 120 10.00 8% 11.10    
SCR  LOTSANDLOTSOFGOLD Jun16 May29 May02 Apr13 Feb09 (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 20.00    
OLGA ISABEL Oct29 Oct07 May06 Mar05   (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 1.00 51% 1.00    
HOTHEADED PRINCESS Jun29 May29       (castillo ric)RAMOS D 120 12.00 14% 6.30    
EAST SHORE Jun11 May25 Apr07 Nov27 Oct30 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
 
ELP-5   07/22/2023 5280ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES Jun25 Jun02 May07 Apr09 Mar13 (d'amato phi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 1.80 37% 1.70    
I FEEL THE NEED Jun16 Apr28 Apr15 Mar30 Mar04 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 6.00    
CHARLEE O Jun10 Mar09 Jan05 Dec14 Oct03 (waltz brian)LANERIE J 123 15.00    
MINT EDITION Jun22 Jun02 Apr23 Mar29 Mar08 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 15.00    
CLOUDY BAY Jun30 May29 Apr27 Mar12 Feb12 (davis christophe)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
GHOSTLY GIRL Jun01 May11 Apr22 Mar30 Feb17 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 32% 2.10    
BEL ARIA Jun30 Jun17 Apr16 Mar31 Mar09 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
THE CLUB May20 Apr22 Mar26 Jan18 Nov23 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 123 5.00    
CARIBBEAN NIGHT Jan04 Dec08 Oct13 Sep09 Aug06 (drury thom)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 15.00 8% 12.30    
SCR  TWIRLING PATTI May26 May03 Feb15 Aug07 Jun02 (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 123 15.00    
SCR  LITTLE DIXIE Jun11 Apr23 Mar03 Jan21   (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
SCR  HASHTAG WINNER Jun23 May27 Apr22 Apr13 Mar25 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 10.00    
 
ELP-6   07/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SAVANNAMARIE Jun16         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 8.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of LENAMARIE by PAYNTER)
SIMPLY STRIKING         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SPEIGHTSY HEART by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
RIPERTON         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of KIMBERLEA K by INDIAN EVENING)
IUKA MISS         (stall albert )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LAID BACK LADY by HOLD ME BACK)
HASINI         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by MITOLE out of BRILLIANT FUTURE by FORLI)
SHAKE IT BABY Jun16         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of JOY FILLED by PULPIT)
GRACE GIVEN Jun30         (ortiz joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00 9% 10.50    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of LONG LEAF by PROUD CITIZEN)
BLAME THE GELATO         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
  (by BLAME out of BIANCO TARTUFO by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
ABOVE THE SUN         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 25.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of MAKIN' SENSE by STREET SENSE)
10  SHE'S A SHOPPER         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 4.50 24% 3.20    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of WINDOW SHOPPER by DYNAFORMER)
11  UMEBOSHI         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of SWEETGRASS by KOKAND)
12  FORESEEN         (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of IMPRECATION by FIRST DEFENCE)
SCR  SABRES         (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of POTESTA by MACHO UNO)
SCR  PURE CONNECTION Jun16         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by CONNECT out of CARINHOSA by SKY MESA)
 
ELP-7   07/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ABOUKIR BAY Jun22 Feb21 Jan14 Oct19 Sep03 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 122 5.00    
WILLOW BEND May17 Apr01 Mar10 Feb03 Nov27 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00    
SCR  LILIESFORMILLIE Feb11 Dec31 Dec07 Oct22   (hamilton sara)GILLIGAN JACK 118 6.00    
LAURA'S CHARM Jun22 May28 Jan13 Dec22 Nov19 (kerrick lacy)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 4.00    
STREET JAM May13 Apr15 Mar24 Jan26 Dec14 (wilkes r)LANERIE J 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
MADRILENA (ARG) May28 Apr29 Mar16 Nov17 Sep13 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00 21% 3.80    
PRINCESS ELIN Oct25 Oct04 Sep19 Sep09 Jun28 (hammond ki)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
CURRENT CLIMATE Jun11 Apr15 Mar16 Jan25 Jan12 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
LADY GOLDSTART Jul07 Jun16 May14 Jan29 Dec09 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 122 2.50 48% 1.10    
SCR  ALTERED SHOT Jun22 May12 Mar17 Feb24 Jan28 (foley greg)LANERIE J 122 5.00    
 
ELP-8   07/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC11 FAST Jeff Hall Memorial Purse ($125K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHASING TIME Jun30 Jun01 May04 Apr08 Feb25 (asmussen )TORRES A 126 8.00 26% 2.90    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of RACE HUNTER by DIXIE UNION)
O BESOS Nov05 Oct01 Apr09 Feb19 Jan02 (foley greg)LANERIE J 122 2.50    
  (by ORB out of SNUGGS AND KISSES by SOTO (VEN))
SCR  NECKER ISLAND Jun18 Apr15 Apr01 Mar18 Feb17 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 4.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of JENNY'S ROCKET by MR. GREELEY)
SCR  DROPPIN G'S Jun30 Jan01 Dec21 Nov17 Nov04 (antonuik jerry)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
  (by KLIMT out of ZOOEY by ZAFARRANCHO (ARG))
SOLIDIFY Jun23 Jun10 May13 May04 Mar31 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 122 50.00    
  (by TAPIZAR out of ELABORATE by GILDED TIME)
GO WEST May29 Apr28 Apr01 Feb25 Feb05 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 126 15.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SUSHI EMPIRE by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  CLASSIER Jul08 May25 Apr29 Apr07 Mar19 (magee kier)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of CLASS WILL TELL by BERNARDINI)
TUT'S REVENGE Jul01 May06 Apr15 Feb11 Jan27 (stuart sh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00 8% 12.10    
  (by ESKENDEREYA out of CAT FIVE' O by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
HERE MI SONG May06 Apr08 Mar11 Feb04 Dec17 (stinson william)ACHARD ALEX 124 2.00 36% 1.80    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of MI VIERA by DEHERE)
 
ELP-9   07/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RESPECT AND HONOUR         (walker paul)HESS SARA 109 30.00    
  (by BAL A BALI out of ABOUT RESPECT by WOODMAN)
HOLD MY HALO         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of MODENA BAY by VOLKSRAAD)
SCR  UNCORKED (AUS) Jul16 Jul01 Jun17 May28 May27 (engler jeff)LANERIE J 124 3.50    
  (by PIERRO out of PIAF by PROUD BIRDIE)
HEARTSTRUCK         (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of PERFECT FOR YOU by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
MY LILY MAE Jul10 May24 Mar31 Mar11 Aug14 (kinmon keith)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 3.00 48% 1.10    
  (by SKY MESA out of ABSOLUTELY CINDY by ARCH)
ANIMAL FRIES Jun25         (newton tro)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of R NAJA by EXCHANGE RATE)
DRIANA Jun17 May20       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 11% 8.40    
  (by KANTHAROS out of MARCELLINA D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
PHAT CHANCE FANCY Jul09 Jun17       (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SPARKLING CITY by CAPE TOWN)
EYES OF GOLD Nov24 Oct22 Sep22 Aug13 Jul04 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 8% 11.70    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of MS TRISH S. by SMOKE WARNING)
10  BLUE TOPAZ Apr27 Mar31       (flenner andr)RAMOS D 119 8.00 13% 6.60    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CAROLINE COUNTY by TAPIZAR)
SCR  ELEGANT MOVES         (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 114 50.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of GOLDEN WIN DREAMS by PHILADREAM)
SCR  CARIBBEAN BEAUTY         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of FRESIA by EL PRADO (IRE))
SCR  CATCHA LATER MO Jun27 Dec17 Nov22 Oct27 Oct04 (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 30.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of TATERBUG by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  FIRST HILL Jun08 May06 Apr20 Mar09 Feb16 (medina ro)TORRES A 119 5.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of SINGLET by REAL QUIET)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.