Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - July 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/2)-(6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/2)-(4/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2)-(4/7/2)-(4/12/1/6/10) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-2   WIN (4/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/2)-(4/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/2)-(4/7/2)-(4/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/2)-(4/12/1/6/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/7/2)-(4/12/1/6/10)-(1/5) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/12/1/6/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/12/1/6/10)-(4/12/1/6/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/12/1/6/10)-(4/12/1/6/10)-(4/12/1/6/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/12/1/6/10)-(1/5) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (4/12/1/6/10)-(1/5)-(3/2/5) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
ELP-4   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(3/2/5)-(4/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ELP-5   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(4/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5)-(4/9)-(7/5/2/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ELP-6   WIN (4/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/9)-(4/9) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/9)-(7/5/2/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/9)-(7/5/2/8)-(3/10/6/7) 32 $1.00 $96.00 
ELP-7   WIN (7/5/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/2/8)-(7/5/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/2/8)-(7/5/2/8)-(7/5/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/2/8)-(3/10/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/5/2/8)-(3/10/6/7)-(7/4/9/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ELP-8   WIN (3/10/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/10/6/7)-(3/10/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/10/6/7)-(3/10/6/7)-(3/10/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/10/6/7)-(7/4/9/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ELP-9   WIN (7/4/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/9/8)-(7/4/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/9/8)-(7/4/9/8)-(7/4/9/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAM SANDWICH Jun10         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 19% 4.20    
  (by HEART TO HEART out of VOODOO LOUNGE by PLEASANT TAP)
2  TIZ MY HERO Jun24 Jun04       (vance d)LANERIE J 119 5.00 13% 6.50    
  (by BERNARDINI out of TIZ MY LADY by TIZNOW)
3  HOT N LUCKY         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of MY LADY LUCK by HARD SPUN)
4  MASTER SWITCH         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 3.50    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of KISS THE KING by ROMAN RULER)
5  COACH JIMI D         (divito james )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of SHANGHAI SNOOKIE by SHANGHAI BOBBY)
6  IN A JAM Jun24         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 1.80 46% 1.20    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of YANKEE UNION by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
 
ELP-2   07/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AERONAUT Jun10 May19 Apr07 Mar15 Feb18 (danner kelsey)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 15.00    
2  PURE PANIC May16 Apr16 Mar18 Feb25 Jan28 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  ALL EYES WEST Jun04 May26 May04 Dec31 Dec11 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 6.00    
4  SAMURAI PRINCE Jun07 May17 Apr19 Mar18 Feb24 (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 69% 0.40    
5  LEGAL DEAL Jun18 May26 May04 Apr22 Mar04 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.00    
6  PALACE KITTEN Jun15 May04 Mar30 Feb18 Jan13 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 3.00    
7  CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT Jul03 Jun04 Apr29 Mar18 Feb17 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 122 5.00 5% 17.50    
 
ELP-3   07/15/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COULDITBEMAJIC Jun24         (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 20% 4.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of A P MAJETSTIC by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
2  RAPID GREY         (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of MAYAN MILAGRA by MENIFEE)
3  BRIAN         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of THE NOW CROWD by TIZNOW)
4  RUNNIN' ROCKET         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 2.50 23% 3.30    
  (by WAR FRONT out of CORPS DE BALLET by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
5  BEKHAMBOY         (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 15.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of LADY TULA by BIG SURF)
6  BERNIN HOT May25         (davis christo)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 6% 14.70    
  (by BERNARDINI out of LAVENDER BABY by RUBIANO)
7  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of LET IT SNOW by FROSTY THE SNOWMAN)
SCR  GAMBLIN GEORGE         (kelley james )CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of ROYAL COPENHAGEN by INCHINOR)
9  THOMAS AQUINAS         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of SUNNY COVE by STREET CRY (IRE))
10  ONE RED CENT         (jazdzews)RODRIGUEZ A 119 25.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DOMINUS out of UNEVEN by EVEN THE SCORE)
SCR  MCVICKER         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 12.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of LIL' SASHA by WHYWHYWHY)
12  ALDER         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 1.80 22% 3.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ARBOL by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
 
ELP-4   07/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MEGAN'S CLARA Jun03 Mar25 Feb26 May30 Apr08 (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 122 1.80 38% 1.70    
SCR  CRACKALACKING Jun11 May13 Mar25 Mar02 Jan13 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50    
3  CENTER STAGE May20 Apr23 Mar25 Feb16 Feb02 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00    
SCR  SPARKLE OF HOPE Jun11 Sep23 Jul03 Jun08 May30 (foley greg)LANERIE J 122 5.00    
5  PISTOL May14 Apr22 Mar24 Feb12 Jan29 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 32% 2.10    
6  CANCEL THIS Jun18 May25 Nov27 Nov06 Oct15 (romans dale)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.00    
 
ELP-5   07/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FLORIS Jun24 May18 May26 May03 Apr10 (duvall wil)MICHEL MICKAELLE 123 8.00    
2  ELLIE DELI Jun16 May20 May04 Mar15 Jan13 (rouck l)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 24% 3.20    
3  BIG JAVA May03 Mar25 Feb26 Feb12 Jan15 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 2.50 34% 2.00    
4  HARDLY MISCHIEVOUS Jul06 May20 Mar24 Feb19 Jan28 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 123 3.50    
5  PUGLIA May27 May18 Apr27 Feb25 Feb01 (howard john)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 6.00 14% 6.20    
6  SNOWCREST Jun16 Jun29 Jun23 May21   (holsapple hutc)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 10.00    
7  PACIFIC GROVE (GB) Jun08 May23 May11 Apr11 Mar18 (gonzalez al)PETERSON FERRIN 123 25.00    
SCR  DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE Jun11 May02 Feb15 Dec02 Nov20 (taylor brent)GILLIGAN JACK 123 8.00    
 
ELP-6   07/15/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($80K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CELLIST Dec17 Oct14 Aug13 Jul27 May21 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00    
2  BACKGROUND Jun04 May05 Apr23 Mar18 Feb11 (puhich mike)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 20.00    
3  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT Nov13 Oct20 Sep28 Jul24 Jul01 (walsh bre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
4  RISING EMPIRE May20 Apr22 Mar25 Feb12 Jan15 (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 18% 4.60    
5  VINTAGE PRINT May11 Oct23 Sep28 Aug26 Jul15 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00    
SCR  TEMPLE Jan28 Nov26 Oct14 Sep10 Jul23 (maker michael )CHUAN MARTIN 122 2.50    
SCR  BIG DREAMING Nov20 Jun11 Feb19     (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 122 6.00 56% 0.80    
SCR  STARTING OVER Jun04 Mar10 Feb04 Nov13 Sep29 (maker mic)TORRES A 122 4.50    
9  DON'T FORGET Jun25 May04 Apr07 Mar03 Jan28 (shorter a)TORRES A 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-7   07/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUEEN OF MISSOULA         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of SERENE QUEEN by EXPLICIT)
2  HEART HEADED WOMAN Jun11 May05 Apr12     (drury thoma)PETERSON FERRIN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of BRILLIANT BLAZE by SEEKING THE GOLD)
3  GRACE'S GIFT         (ramo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 30.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of MISS LARKSPUR by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  ROSE PARADE         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
  (by CURLIN out of ROSE GARDEN by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
5  COPPA GIRL Jun10 May05       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 32% 2.10    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of HALLIE GAY by SUMMER BIRD)
6  BIG DIG Nov17 Sep29 Jul31     (drury thom)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of BOSTON MINE by MINESHAFT)
7  EXCELLENT QUESTION Jun10 May05 Sep23 Aug07   (walsh bre)TORRES A 118 2.00 40% 1.50    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SWEET SUE by DESERT CLASSIC)
8  DOMINA May27 Apr07       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of INTERNAL AFFAIR by ORIENTATE)
 
ELP-8   07/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  UNSTABLE PRINCESS Jun29 May12 Apr22 Apr07 Mar17 (santamaria carlos)GRAHAM J 120 20.00    
SCR  MUSICAL SCORE May06         (cox brad )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.50    
3  FOGO ISLAND May27 Mar31       (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00 25% 3.10    
4  ARDEN'S ASSAULT Jun18 Apr27 Mar18     (davis chris)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 12.00    
5  DESTINE TO RACE Jun02 May05 Apr13 Feb18 Jan21 (lovell michel)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00    
6  JENNY LIND Jun08 May12 Feb23 Feb01 Nov18 (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 10.00 18% 4.60    
7  WINDY BAY May25 Apr21 Mar16 Feb17 Jan27 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 120 20.00 9% 9.80    
SCR  PEDIGEEK Jun17 Apr07 Mar12 Jan29 Dec11 (casse mar)TORRES A 122 8.00    
9  KATIE GOT LUCKY Feb03 Dec14 Oct28 Sep07 Aug23 (mcentee paul)HEARD TYLER 120 30.00    
10  C C CRUISE CONTROL Jun21 May29 May12 Apr14 Oct28 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 120 10.00 21% 3.80    
SCR  CLEVER JOKE May12 Mar09 Dec03 Aug28   (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00    
SCR  STORM BAY Jun08 May06       (devaux cherie)MACHADO LUAN 120 6.00    
 
ELP-9   07/15/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GHENT Jun20 Mar09 Feb10 Dec28 Oct09 (hamilton sarah)EMIGH A 118 20.00    
SCR  HOCUS (GB) Jun17 May21 Apr16     (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 124 15.00    
3  ZARTOWNIS May23 Jul22 Mar26     (devaux cherie)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 6.00    
4  MIDNIGHT HURRICANE Jan21 Dec28 Nov26 Feb11   (claire alexis)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 15.00 23% 3.40    
SCR  CADILLAC CANDY Jun23 Aug19 May19 Apr28   (arnold r)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
SCR  ARABIAN PRINCE Jun23 May19 Apr26 Feb03 Jan15 (barnett bob)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.00    
7  RED HOT ROD Apr21 Mar25 May01     (hernandez rey)BEJARANO R 118 5.00 32% 2.10    
8  FADETHENOISE Jun23 May20 Apr16 Aug19 Jul16 (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  GILDED RULER May19 Mar10 Dec31 Feb05   (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 122 10.00 22% 3.50    
10  CUSTOM BOBBY'S Jun16 Nov24 Sep03 Jul31 Jul01 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
SCR  B D VALESKI Jun23 May19 Apr21 Mar30 Mar10 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50    
12  PROTEGE Apr14 Feb04 Dec17 Nov04 Sep21 (moquett r)TORRES A 118 15.00    
13  SWIMMINGWITHSHARKS Jun04 Feb03 Jan13 Nov20 Oct23 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 115 20.00    
SCR  WESTERN COMMAND Jun18 May20 Mar16 Feb02 Nov17 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.