Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Aqueduct
Saturday - April 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

AQU-1   WIN (2/8/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/8/6)-(2/8/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/8/6)-(2/8/6)-(2/8/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/8/6)-(2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/8/6)-(2/5)-(3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-2   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/5)-(3/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (2/5)-(3/1)-(4/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/1)-(4/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (3/1)-(4/3)-(7/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-4   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/3)-(4/3/7)-(4/3/7) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/3)-(7/10/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(7/10/4)-(6/5/8) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-5   WIN (7/10/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/10/4)-(7/10/4/12) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/10/4)-(7/10/4/12)-(7/10/4/12) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/10/4)-(6/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/10/4)-(6/5/8)-(3/2/11) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-6   WIN (6/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/8)-(6/5/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/8)-(6/5/8)-(6/5/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/8)-(3/2/11) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/5/8)-(3/2/11)-(3/7/11/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-7   WIN (3/2/11) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/11)-(3/2/11/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/2/11)-(3/2/11/4)-(3/2/11/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/2/11)-(3/7/11/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/11)-(3/7/11/4)-(6/10/8/1/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-8   WIN (3/7/11/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/11/4)-(3/7/11/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/11/4)-(3/7/11/4)-(3/7/11/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/11/4)-(6/10/8/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
AQU-9   WIN (6/10/8/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/10/8/1/7)-(6/10/8/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/10/8/1/7)-(6/10/8/1/7)-(6/10/8/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
AQU-1   04/15/2023 3960ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CONMAN Mar11 Oct29 Sep17 Aug10 Jul17 (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 120 2.00    
ROUGH DRAFT Nov18         (duggan davi)MCCARTHY TREVOR 127 4.00 21% 3.70    
BASIS RISK Feb25 Feb05 Dec09 Nov13 Oct22 (coffey m)DAVIS A 125 30.00    
BE OF COURAGE Nov05 Oct21 Sep23     (pregman john )PANAIJO JORGE 120 6.00    
GREAT WORKOUT Feb19 Nov11 Oct02 Sep18 Aug27 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 127 10.00    
SINFUL DANCER Dec04 Nov13 Oct14 Oct07 Aug31 (figueroa david )DAVIS KATIE 125 15.00 16% 5.40    
FEATHERS ROAD Aug27 Jul30 Jul09 Jun10 May21 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 127 5.00    
SANDRONE Nov26 Oct30 Aug25 May21 Apr23 (bond harold )TORRES A 122 3.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  CLASH A. J. Apr01 Mar24 Mar17 Feb25 Feb11 (jones e)RIDER TBA 125 15.00    
SCR  SAFALOW'S MISSION Mar10 Feb12 Jan08 Dec11 Jun11 (rice linda)RIDER TBA 127 1.60 21% 3.70    
SCR  BRACIOLE Mar24 Mar04 Feb05 Jan13 Dec31 (barrera )GOMEZ ANTONIO 125 2.50    
 
AQU-2   04/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($82K) 3 ALL PT- 1:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WARMAN ROAD Mar11 Sep16       (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 122 3.00    
LOOMS BOLDLY Mar19 Feb20 Nov12 Sep29   (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.00 25% 3.10    
THUNDERIAN Mar25 Mar19 Dec02 Sep21 Aug12 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 117 10.00    
SCR  TOXIC GRAY Mar05 Feb11 Dec30     (miceli michael)CANCEL ERIC 122 1.40 40% 1.50    
HELDISH Mar25 Jan21 Nov12 Oct22 Sep10 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 120 8.00 14% 6.10    
TORRONE Nov06 Oct02 Sep17 Aug12   (breen kelly)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 15.00    
 
AQU-3   04/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC11 FIRM Danger's Hour Purse ($100K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ANACONDA Mar11 Feb04 Nov25 Nov07 Sep29 (sharp joe)DAVIS DYLAN 118 4.00 21% 3.70    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of LAWN PARTY by SLEWVESCENT)
SCR  SO HIGH (GB) Apr07 Mar05 Feb03 Apr15   (cha)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 118 20.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of FUGITIVE ANGEL by ALPHABET SOUP)
BIG EVEREST (GB) Nov13 Sep29 Aug04 Jul09 Jun02 (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 120 0.80 41% 1.50    
  (by THE GURKHA out of LONG FACE by WHYWHYWHY)
ELEVEN CENTRAL Nov13 Sep30 Aug13 Jul09 May28 (lobo h)CARMOUCHE K 118 8.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SEALY HILL by POINT GIVEN)
SCR  CELESTIAL CITY Dec03 Oct22 Sep24 Sep03 Aug05 (mcgaughey c)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 2.50 8% 11.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of LUNAR EVENING by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  KOOLHAUS Jan27 Dec17 Jun17 May12 Mar24 (lobo pau)RODRIGUEZ A 118 12.00 7% 14.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of HOLY PLACE by PULPIT)
SCR  BOURBON CALLING Mar19 Feb20 Jan06 Nov18 Nov07 (arriaga antonio)RIDER TBA 120 0.50    
  (by DIALED IN out of BESTOWED A STAR by ALDEBARAN)
 
AQU-4   04/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRINCE OF JOY Mar05 Feb10 Jan26 Jan01 Dec18 (legall)MARAGH RAMSAY 125 6.00    
SIGHT UNSEEN Mar05 Jan29 Dec31 Nov05 Oct14 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 120 4.50    
BINGO JOHN Mar26 Mar05 Feb18 Feb05 Jan22 (englehart jer)FRANCO MANUEL 125 3.50 17% 5.00    
LIFE AND LIGHT Mar25 Feb24 Feb03 Jan12 Dec11 (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.00 31% 2.20    
EXXTOP Mar30 Mar18 Mar05 Feb10 Jan26 (thompson)DAVIS A 125 20.00    
SCR  PATRICK THE GREAT Apr08 Mar25 Jan27 Jan21 Dec11 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 127 3.00 24% 3.20    
ONE MORE SCORE Mar27 Feb18 Jan12 Apr08 Mar28 (brow)HUAYAS (JASON) 120 8.00    
HANG TIGHT Mar30 Feb17 Feb05 Jan28 Jan08 (thompson marcus)CANCEL ERIC 125 8.00    
 
AQU-5   04/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STEADY PROGRESS Mar31 Mar12 Feb17 Feb02 Jan19 (cha)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
UNION TAP Mar18         (kimmel c)DAVIS DYLAN 118 15.00    
CARPE CAPELLA Mar26 Mar03 Oct09     (shivma)MARAGH RAMSAY 126 30.00    
PLEASE BABY Jan19 Dec01 Oct23 Oct02 Sep03 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 4.00 9% 9.80    
SECOND AND REED Feb02 Jan05 Dec10 Oct28 Oct02 (ryer)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 20.00    
ELEVATED CAUSEWAY         (noda orlando)OLVER MADISON 111 20.00    
PROVEN HOPE Mar31 Mar12 Feb12 Jan19 Dec29 (barrera s)DAVIS KATIE 126 5.00 43% 1.30    
STORMANDY Mar12 Feb17 Feb09 Jan13 Oct22 (baker cha)VARGAS A 118 15.00    
YORKSHIRE PRINCE Feb18 Jan21 Dec03 Oct22   (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 118 5.00    
10  CARLIN CLAN Mar03 Feb04 Oct23 Aug27 Jul16 (falcone robert )CARMOUCHE K 118 3.00 21% 3.70    
11  CHESS SPECTACULAR Mar10 Feb12 Nov19 Oct22 Sep18 (ryerson t)CANCEL ERIC 118 12.00    
12  MAD MAGIC Mar24 Feb02 Dec29 Nov06 Oct09 (baker charl)MCCARTHY TREVOR 126 10.00    
SCR  PEJA DU         (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WEALLLIKEDHIM Mar31 Mar10 Dec29 Dec09   (legall ricar)SAMUEL L 126 50.00    
 
AQU-6   04/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
R BOY BODE Feb09 Aug08 Jul22 Jul10 Jul04 (thompson)DAVIS A 120 20.00    
SCR  RAISE THE RENT Mar11 Jan01 Aug19 Jul24 May28 (breen kelly)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 2.50 31% 2.20    
MARVIN Mar30 Mar11 Feb26 Jan22 Nov10 (tess)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 8.00    
CASH NOW Jan29 Jan21 Jan01 Dec03 Nov25 (summers chad)ADORNO ABNER 123 3.50    
MIDNIGHTCHARLY Mar19 Mar03 Feb25 Oct11 Sep10 (arriaga anto)TORRES A 115 6.00 10% 9.30    
ZERTZ Mar25 Mar03 Feb09 Jan22 Jan13 (chichakly amira)CANCEL ERIC 123 5.00 30% 2.30    
MAGNIFICENT CHROME Mar30 Feb02 Jan19 Aug14 Jul20 (lynch na)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 8.00    
NO MORE TALK Mar26 Feb26 Feb05 Jan06 Nov11 (magee kieron)CEDENO CAROL 120 4.50 6% 16.20    
 
AQU-7   04/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THE SPLENDID ONE Feb24 Jan19 Dec16 Nov04 Sep22 (hennig mark)HARKIE K 118 10.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of BLISSFULLY by COX'S RIDGE)
ORANGE FREEZE Sep15 Aug18       (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 118 5.00 12% 7.60    
  (by FREUD out of HOOPSKIRT by BIRDSTONE)
INFLATIONARY TREND         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.00 29% 2.50    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of FLASH ACT by ACTIVADO (URU))
STARTS NOW Nov18 Oct28       (kantarmaci mert)CANCEL ERIC 118 12.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of VERY FUNNY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
GRACEFULNESS Feb24 Jan27       (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 20.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of BAY ISLAND by BLUEGRASS CAT)
SUCCULENT Oct29 Sep30 Sep04 Aug11 Jul16 (donk davi)VARGAS A 126 6.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of OUCHY NIGHT by CACTUS RIDGE)
ARISAEMA Feb12 Oct29 Jul16 Jun04 Apr10 (abreu jorge )SAMUEL L 126 12.00    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of MEIANN by FIRST SAMURAI)
ICHIBAN Mar18 Jan21       (rice linda)DAVIS KATIE 118 10.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of COVER GIRL ELLE by OUT OF PLACE)
LA CONQUISTADORA Feb24 Dec16 Oct30 Sep22   (breen )MARAGH RAMSAY 118 20.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of COURT DRESS by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
10  KOSUKE         (bond harold )TORRES A 113 15.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of OSAKA by ALLEN'S PROSPECT)
11  BOMB SQUAD Nov04         (clement chr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 4.50 10% 9.20    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of DAISY CUTTER by J P HAMER)
12  PINSTRIPEPIZZO Feb24 Jan14       (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 118 20.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SPICY TEMPER by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  NORTHWAY Mar18 Feb20       (handal ra)VARGAS A 118 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of SHINE UPON by CONGAREE)
SCR  SILENT MELODY         (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00    
  (by TONALIST out of ANNA STRONG by UNCLE MO)
SCR  MY ANGEL Mar18 Feb11 Jan14     (maker mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 10.00    
  (by WAR DANCER out of TAINTED ANGEL by YES IT'S TRUE)
SCR  BON ADIEU Feb10 Dec16       (gargan danny)CARMOUCHE K 126 2.50 28% 2.60    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of VIVA SHEILA by TIZNOW)
 
AQU-8   04/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WIN FOR GOLD Mar26 Feb20 Feb11 Jan12 Dec11 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.50    
SUPER QUALITY Mar10 Mar05 Jan29 Dec09 Nov10 (arriaga a)VARGAS A 122 6.00    
NOLO CONTESTO Feb19 Jan21 Jan13 Dec30 Nov24 (jacobson da)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 5.00 41% 1.50    
BOURBON READY Mar04 Feb12 Jan08 Apr23 Mar26 (pletch)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 8.00 6% 16.80    
NECROMANCER Mar10 Dec29 Nov04 Sep30 Aug25 (levine bruce)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00    
BUILT TO LAST (BRZ) Mar10 Jan01 Dec03 Aug24 Jul30 (eng)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 122 15.00    
ZEEBEAR Mar26 Feb12       (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 122 5.00 9% 10.20    
MOTION TO STRIKE Mar04 Jan05 Dec10 Nov20 Oct23 (lynch na)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 12.00    
SCR  HATCH (GB) Jan26 Dec29 Dec16 Nov18 Oct22 (mart)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 30.00    
SCR  NAKED AND FAMOUS Mar11 Feb09 Jan29 Jan08 Aug25 (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 122 6.00 14% 6.40    
11  BLINDING LIGHT Jan14 Nov04 Oct06 Sep03 Jul20 (englehart je)TORRES A 115 8.00 6% 15.30    
 
AQU-9   04/15/2023 3960ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPELTERINI Mar17 Feb17 Jan07 Nov05 Oct02 (mott will)VARGAS A 118 6.00 13% 6.50    
  (by BERNARDINI out of KEEPSHERCOOL by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  BUTTER CAKE         (mott willia)MARTINEZ R 118 6.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of APIARY by BERNARDINI)
ROMAN GODDESS Dec11 Nov18 Oct16 Sep25   (maker michae)TORRES A 118 15.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of NARIA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
QUIESCENT Aug28         (ribaudo robert )CANCEL ERIC 118 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of SAARLIGHT by SAARLAND)
RISK FREE Mar17 Feb17 Jan29 Jan07 Dec15 (dela)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 15.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of KEEP CROSSING by ISTAN)
LEXI'S SPIRIT Feb18 Jan08 Nov20 Oct27 Aug25 (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 118 10.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of EDUCATING by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
ACCEPT THE OUTCOME (IRE) Feb16         (brown chad )MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 4.00 21% 3.70    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of SILENT THOUGHTS by GALILEO (ARG))
DEKANTER Mar16         (abreu r)DAVIS KATIE 125 5.00 10% 8.70    
  (by KANTHAROS out of MORNING RUSH by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
DARK DAHLIA Dec10         (englehart jer)OLVER MADISON 118 8.00 17% 4.90    
  (by VIOLENCE out of THE TEA CUPS by HARD SPUN)
TUFANI         (stidham michael)CARMOUCHE K 118 15.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of WINDHOEK by MINESHAFT)
10  MISS SAN GABRIEL Jul13         (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.50 18% 4.60    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of HERE COMES FROCK by ARTAX)
11  DIAMOND STATUS Nov20 Oct15 Sep16 Aug19 Jun30 (martin c)GOMEZ ANTONIO 125 20.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of STATUS by KRIS S.)
12  MY GIRL JAL Mar17 Feb17       (legall ricar)SAMUEL L 118 50.00    
  (by PALACE out of DYNAMITE DAME by EL PRADO (IRE))
SCR  JUST ON TIME (FR) Mar11 Nov12 Oct15     (jerkens j)VARGAS A 118 12.00    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of SMART STING by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  SHE'S STORMY Mar03 Feb03 Jan06 Aug14   (jerkens jame)TORRES A 120 15.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of HOOKAH LADY by SMOKE GLACKEN)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.