Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belmont At The Big A
Thursday - September 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BAQ-1   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/3)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(3/1/2)-(5/4/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
BAQ-2   WIN (3/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/2)-(5/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2)-(5/4/1)-(6/2/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
BAQ-3   WIN (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/1)-(5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/1)-(6/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1)-(6/2/4)-(7/11/9/4/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
BAQ-4   WIN (6/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/4)-(6/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/4)-(6/2/4)-(6/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/4)-(7/11/9/4/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/2/4)-(7/11/9/4/6)-(1/4/9/7/8) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
BAQ-5   WIN (7/11/9/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/11/9/4/6)-(7/11/9/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/11/9/4/6)-(7/11/9/4/6)-(7/11/9/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/11/9/4/6)-(1/4/9/7/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (7/11/9/4/6)-(1/4/9/7/8)-(8/1/4/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
BAQ-6   WIN (1/4/9/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/9/7/8)-(1/4/9/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/9/7/8)-(1/4/9/7/8)-(1/4/9/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/4/9/7/8)-(8/1/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/4/9/7/8)-(8/1/4/6)-(5/4/8/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
BAQ-7   WIN (8/1/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/4/6)-(8/1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/4/6)-(8/1/4/6)-(8/1/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/4/6)-(5/4/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/1/4/6)-(5/4/8/1)-(12/3/9/7/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
BAQ-8   WIN (5/4/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/8/1)-(5/4/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/8/1)-(5/4/8/1)-(5/4/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/8/1)-(12/3/9/7/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
BAQ-9   WIN (12/3/9/7/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/3/9/7/4)-(12/3/9/7/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/3/9/7/4)-(12/3/9/7/4)-(12/3/9/7/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BAQ-1   09/21/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($75K) 2 ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRATELLINO         (romero rafa)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 12.00    
  (by WAR DANCER out of KIMBERLY JEAN by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  LAO WAY         (miceli michael)DAVIS DYLAN 119 10.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of PROACTIVE by KATAHAULA COUNTY)
3  PERLIANO Aug11 Jul07       (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 119 4.50 18% 4.50    
  (by MITOLE out of IWASREADYYESTERDAY by MORE THAN READY)
4  MISCHIEF JOKE Aug23 Jul28 Jun23 May12 Apr07 (maker michael )ROSARIO JOEL 119 1.20 46% 1.20    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of SHESABITDISTORTED by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  WONDER WONDERLAND         (romero raf)RIVERA R 114 20.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of GENTLE GALE by STORM CAT)
6  MAMA'S DREAM         (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 119 2.00    
  (by FREUD out of MAMA THERESA by CARSON CITY)
7  OFFICER DERICK Aug23         (albertrani )ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 10.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of KELLY'S PRIZE by PURE PRIZE)
 
BAQ-2   09/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($105K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  BOLD ENDEAVOR Aug03 Mar31 Mar03 Jan15 Dec31 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 124 3.00 15% 5.50    
SCR  BUSINESS MODEL Aug13 Jul08 Jun15 May21 Apr28 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 3.00    
2  BABY YODA Aug25 Jul16 May06 Oct29 Oct07 (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 122 6.00 12% 7.40    
3  BEST ACTOR Aug13 Jun30 Sep25 Aug23 Jul09 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 2.00 42% 1.40    
4  SHERIFF BIANCO Sep15 Aug11 Jul16 Jul01 May29 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 122 4.50    
5  KINETIC SKY Sep15 Jun15 Apr30 Mar04 Feb02 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.50    
6  UNCLE MOONLIGHT Sep02 Jun15 Apr29 Mar04 Feb05 (antonacci phili)CARMOUCHE K 124 6.00    
 
BAQ-3   09/21/2023 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($52K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PORTOS Sep10 Aug18 Aug02 Jul13 Jun10 (potts wayne)CASTELLANO J 118 5.00 17% 5.00    
2  DATESFREEDOM Aug25 Aug10 Jul03 Jun13 May27 (delauro edw)MARTINEZ R 123 30.00    
3  HIGHER QUALITY Sep08 Jul22 Jun24 Jun16 May07 (chatte)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 10.00    
4  CLASSIC MARK Aug24 Jul04 May20 Apr13 Mar11 (rodriguez gust)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.00 21% 3.70    
5  LOOKIN AT ROSES Aug02 Jul19 Jun25 May24 Apr22 (preciado guad)ORTIZ JR 118 2.00 22% 3.50    
6  CUT THE CORD Aug18 Jul13 May31 Mar11 Jul16 (englehart jerem)CARMOUCHE K 123 5.00    
7  MYSTIC NIGHT Sep02 Aug03 Jun02 May13 Apr30 (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 118 2.50    
 
BAQ-4   09/21/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($105K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAZADERO Aug23 Jul04 Jun16 Nov05 Oct08 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 5.00    
SCR  MID DAY IMAGE Aug23 Aug05 Jul22 Jul01 Jun01 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 122 5.00    
2  KURAMATA (IRE) Aug24 Jul30 Aug14 Jul01 Apr14 (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 2.50 14% 6.00    
3  TUT'S REVENGE Aug20 Jul22 Jul01 May06 Apr15 (stuart shea)ROSARIO JOEL 122 12.00    
4  DUKE OF HAZZARD (FR) Aug19 Jul04 Jun22 Apr07 Oct13 (dutrow richard )CARMOUCHE K 124 3.00 8% 11.50    
5  MAIN EVENT Aug24 Jul30 Aug06 Jul02 May07 (weaver george)VELAZQUEZ R 122 8.00    
6  WINFROMWITHIN Feb04 Dec31 Oct15 Sep05 Aug14 (delgado jorge)OLVER MADISON 115 4.00 57% 0.80    
7  CALL ME HARRY Aug19 Jul20 Jul03 Apr30 Mar10 (dutrow richa)CASTELLANO J 124 4.50    
 
BAQ-5   09/21/2023 3960ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MADAKET'S ARROW Aug11 Jul22 May27     (weaver george)VELAZQUEZ R 121 4.50    
  (by THE FACTOR out of ALMASHOOQA by DUBAWI (IRE))
2  SEAWITCH Apr05 Feb11 Jan14 Dec15   (albertrani )ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 30.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of SO SQUALLY (GER) by MONSUN (GER))
3  MATERIAL WITNESS Sep02 Jul30 Oct14     (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 121 3.50    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of MORE THAN BEAUTY by MORE THAN READY)
4  YOU ONLY LIVE ONCE         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
5  NYXED Oct22 Oct01       (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 12.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of ZINZAY by SMART STRIKE)
6  QUEEN OF THE MUD (IRE) Aug31         (motion graha)PRAT FLAVIEN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KODIAC out of JAWLAAT by DAYJUR)
7  OOLONG HAI (IRE) Jun10 Apr02 Mar05 Jan22 Dec18 (hennig mark)ORTIZ L 121 6.00 48% 1.10    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of SPRING GARDEN by CAPOTE)
8  DREAMING OF MO         (martin carlos )ROSARIO JOEL 121 12.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of DREAMING OF YOU by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
9  ISOLA (IRE) Aug17 Jul15 Sep10 Aug09 Jul13 (sisterson j)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 8.00 6% 15.60    
  (by UNKNOWN out of MONTEFINO by SHAMARDAL)
10  FANCY STAX Aug17 Jul03       (abreu r)DAVIS KATIE 121 20.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of CAT WIESEL by AWESOME AGAIN)
11  CATSKILL HUMOR Jul28 Oct22       (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 121 10.00 17% 5.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of ATLANTIC DREAM by STORMY ATLANTIC)
12  MILLIE JEAN Aug25 Feb18       (weaver georg)CASTELLANO J 121 15.00    
  (by UNCAPTURED out of ZOOMING BY by CIMARRON SECRET)
 
BAQ-6   09/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY FRIENDS BEER Aug10 Jun25 May27 Apr14 Mar19 (baker ch)GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 5.00    
1A  TWO THIRTY FIVE Aug10 Jul13 Jun25 May21 Apr29 (noda orlando)ORTIZ L 124 5.00 37% 1.70    
2  ROCCO STRONG Aug10 Jun25 May27 Oct15 Aug25 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 122 8.00    
2B  FORTY TWO ACE Jul19 Jun03 May13 Mar24 Jan14 (giangiulio mic)ROSARIO JOEL 124 8.00    
SCR  SALTO DE TIGRE Aug18 Aug02 Jul20 Jun18 Jun09 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 4.50    
4  SIX PERCENT Jun11 Apr14 Mar11 Jan29 Jan06 (englehart jerem)DAVIS DYLAN 124 3.00 20% 4.10    
SCR  DURKIN'S CALL Sep03 Aug06 Jul02 May04 Apr07 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 122 6.00    
6  HANDSOME CAT Aug26 Aug19 Apr01 Mar19 Mar04 (sharp joe)LEZCANO JOSE 122 10.00    
7  BURGEE Aug06 Jul15 Jun23 May24 May07 (shivmangal l)CASTELLANO J 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  INVISIBLE WAR Sep03 Aug03 Jul14 Jun17 May13 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 117 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  JUST CALL RAY Aug25 Aug02 Jul22 Jun25 May27 (abreu fernand)ORTIZ JR 124 6.00 18% 4.40    
10  LIFE AND LIGHT Jul21 Jul03 Jun22 May27 May07 (pringl)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 30.00    
 
BAQ-7   09/21/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXACT ESTIMATE Jul20 Jun17 Apr26 Mar17 Jun10 (brown c)ORTIZ JR 126 4.00 26% 2.90    
2  TIDE OF THE SEA Aug23 Jun09 May06 Nov10 Sep16 (morley thomas)DAVIS KATIE 122 10.00    
3  GOOD SKATE Aug23 Jul27 Jul01 Apr29 Mar25 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 124 8.00    
4  DAUNT Aug26 Jul30 Jul01 May27 May11 (ribaudo robe)CASTELLANO J 122 3.50 12% 7.50    
5  FREEDOM TRAIL Jul15 Jun03 Apr07 Mar11 Nov26 (terranova john)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
6  RONSTADT Aug19 Jul22 Jul01 May14 Apr16 (dini mike)ROSARIO JOEL 126 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TIZ A GIANT Aug26 Jul28 May19 Dec01 Oct28 (trombetta m)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 20.00    
8  FRANCESCO CLEMENTE (IRE)         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 1.60 41% 1.50    
9  ALTERNATE REALITY Aug25 Jul01 May27 Apr21 Mar10 (englehart chri)LEZCANO JOSE 120 50.00    
 
BAQ-8   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($85K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HORN OF PLENTY Sep01 Jul31 May21 May17 May09 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  D'ONT LOSE CRUZ Mar19 Feb25 Jan15 Nov25 Oct27 (duggan david )ORTIZ JR 120 10.00    
SCR  QUICK RETURN Sep04 Jul26 Jun19 May23 Apr01 (farro patri)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 8.00    
4  MARIACHI Aug27 Jul15 Jun17 Nov26 Oct27 (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50 16% 5.40    
5  PERFECT MUNNINGS Aug23 Dec17 Oct30 Aug26 Jun10 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 122 2.50 49% 1.00    
6  RADIO RED Aug23 May29 May06 Mar04 Feb09 (gargan danny)ROSARIO JOEL 122 4.50    
7  ZEEBEAR Aug05 Jul15 May29 May06 Apr15 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 124 10.00    
8  BIG ENGINE Jul23 Jun22 May21 Apr28 Apr20 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 124 6.00 10% 9.30    
9  BREW PUB Aug05 Jul01 May21 Apr30 Mar11 (rodriguez r)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 8.00    
 
BAQ-9   09/21/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($43K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOMAMA BEACH Aug19 Jul09 Jun03 May21 Mar18 (jerkens ste)MARTINEZ R 120 50.00    
2  CHARMING JIM Jul14         (hennig mark)LEZCANO JOSE 120 15.00    
3  SCREW LOOSE Aug17 Jul08 Jun01 Apr21   (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 15% 5.60    
4  FAST STUDY Aug06 Jul01 May13 Jan29 Dec30 (schettin)DAVIS A 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  PERFECT OUTCOME Aug30 Dec31 Dec10     (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 20.00    
6  THATSMYBOXER Jul09 Jun18       (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 15.00    
7  UTAMARO Aug30 Jul21 May29     (rice linda)FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00 6% 15.20    
8  A LISTER Aug23 Jun18 Nov06 Oct07 Sep24 (pringl)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 50.00    
9  ZAPRUDER Aug06 Jul03 Jun01 Dec17 Dec08 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00 7% 13.50    
10  IMPAZIBLE PRINCE Aug09 Jul03 Nov05 Oct06 Sep15 (albright george)DAVIS KATIE 124 8.00    
11  MYLES Aug30 May19 Apr22 Mar30   (clement chr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 5.00    
12  ATLANTA'S ACUNA Aug30 Jul30 Jun03 May06 Nov11 (levine bruce)CASTELLANO J 120 5.00 46% 1.20    
SCR  JUST FOR LUCK (AUS) Jul30 Jun03 May06 Mar18 Oct15 (asmussen ste)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00    
SCR  HARI Jun03         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 8.00    
SCR  AULA Jul26 Jul01 May19 Apr22 Oct27 (maker j)RIDER TBA 120 4.50    
SCR  ACADEMY CHOICE Aug03 Jun18 May13 Apr23   (begg bentle)RIDER TBA 120 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.