Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - July 07, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (7/8/1/5/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/8/1/5/6)-(7/8/1/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/8/1/5/6)-(7/8/1/5/6)-(7/8/1/5/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/8/1/5/6)-(5/7/4/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/8/1/5/6)-(5/7/4/2)-(7/6/2/9/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-2   WIN (5/7/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/4/2)-(5/7/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/4/2)-(5/7/4/2)-(5/7/4/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/7/4/2)-(7/6/2/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/7/4/2)-(7/6/2/9/4)-(1/5/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-3   WIN (7/6/2/9/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/6/2/9/4)-(7/6/2/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/6/2/9/4)-(7/6/2/9/4)-(7/6/2/9/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/6/2/9/4)-(1/5/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/6/2/9/4)-(1/5/7)-(8/7/3/4/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-4   WIN (1/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/7)-(1/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/7)-(1/5/7)-(1/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/7)-(8/7/3/4/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/5/7)-(8/7/3/4/6)-(9/1/2/5/4) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-5   WIN (8/7/3/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/7/3/4/6)-(8/7/3/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/7/3/4/6)-(8/7/3/4/6)-(8/7/3/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/7/3/4/6)-(9/1/2/5/4) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/7/3/4/6)-(9/1/2/5/4)-(6/5/12/4/3) 125 $1.00 $375 
ELP-6   WIN (9/1/2/5/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/1/2/5/4)-(9/1/2/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/1/2/5/4)-(9/1/2/5/4)-(9/1/2/5/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/1/2/5/4)-(6/5/12/4/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (9/1/2/5/4)-(6/5/12/4/3)-(3/9/4/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-7   WIN (6/5/12/4/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/5/12/4/3)-(6/5/12/4/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/5/12/4/3)-(6/5/12/4/3)-(6/5/12/4/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/5/12/4/3)-(3/9/4/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/5/12/4/3)-(3/9/4/2)-(11/7/9/3/12) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-8   WIN (3/9/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/9/4/2)-(3/9/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/9/4/2)-(3/9/4/2)-(3/9/4/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/9/4/2)-(11/7/9/3/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (11/7/9/3/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/7/9/3/12)-(11/7/9/3/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/7/9/3/12)-(11/7/9/3/12)-(11/7/9/3/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/07/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEOCCA Jun15 May25 Apr13 Mar17 Feb24 (castanon jose )CASTANON L 123 10.00 15% 5.60    
2  LEVY Apr29 Mar09 Sep10 Aug19 Jul10 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 8.00    
3  DREAMFACTOR Jun15 Mar24 Feb02 Jan13 Jul30 (stinson wi)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
4  OUT OF ALCATRAZ May25 Apr28 Apr08 Mar23 Mar03 (shorter a)TORRES A 118 15.00    
5  SOFT PANTS Jun15 May08 Apr12 Mar12 Feb12 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 12% 7.40    
6  RONITHELIMODRIVER May25 Apr29 Mar10 Feb17 Jan27 (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 15.00 7% 13.20    
7  ROUNDER Apr28 Mar09 Feb17 Dec07 Nov15 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 3.00 22% 3.60    
8  RIVER IN EGYPT May25 Apr20 Mar25 Feb10 Jan27 (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 111 2.50 16% 5.30    
9  PAID IN FULL Jun15 May25 May12 Mar25 Feb26 (hartlage g)MICHEL MICKAELLE 123 4.00    
 
ELP-2   07/07/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BADGEBALL Jun04 Nov02 Oct16 Sep22 Jun25 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 6.00    
2  ISOCLINE Jun15 May11 Apr18 Mar11 Feb17 (barkley jaso)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  WESTERN GHENT Jun10 May06 Mar30 Feb18 Jan28 (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 118 6.00    
4  LUPO'S LEGACY Jun10 Jun01 May13 Apr13 Mar12 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 5.00 6% 16.10    
5  DR. PERRY Jun17 Apr01 Nov25 Sep30 Aug20 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 123 3.00 35% 1.90    
6  GETTIN PAID May08 Mar09 Jan19 Nov17   (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
7  SINNER'S SIN Apr23 Jan20 Dec17 May28 Apr23 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 2.00 31% 2.20    
 
ELP-3   07/07/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAIRO STREET         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of TAYLOR STREET by STREET SENSE)
2  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI Jun16 May26 May11 Apr19   (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 10.00 22% 3.60    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
3  JOKE MASTER         (maker mic)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of QUEEN NEGWER by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  SALTWATER TAFFY         (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of SHORE BIRD by DEPUTED TESTAMONY)
5  DESERT RHAPSODY         (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SHADY REFLECTION by SULTRY SONG)
6  DEBOISBLANC May19         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 22% 3.50    
  (by MUNNINGS out of TENSAS COWGIRL by COWBOY CAL)
7  ZADORSKY Jun10         (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50 33% 2.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of FINGERPRINT by COMPETITIVE EDGE)
8  GYPSY TALES         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50    
  (by MUNNINGS out of WOODFORD COUNTY by INDIAN CHARLIE)
9  ALAMO         (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of LIBERTY GIRL by ALLEN'S PROSPECT)
 
ELP-4   07/07/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($33K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STANLEY MARKET May28 Dec18 Nov03 Sep18 Jul01 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 111 4.50 26% 2.90    
2  VIOLENT POINT Jun16 Apr22 Apr01 Feb12 Jan20 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 1.80    
SCR  DUPLICITOUS May28 May10 Apr08 Jan28 Nov03 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00    
SCR  TREATY OF PARIS Jun13 May06 Feb16 Feb01 Aug20 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
5  DONYA KNOW IT Jun16 May14 Mar04 Feb11 Jan14 (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00 20% 4.00    
6  OWEN'S PLEASURE Jun16 May28 Apr29 Dec09 Nov11 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.50    
7  ABITIBI Jun11 May04 Apr12 Mar09 Feb23 (esquivel j)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 19% 4.30    
 
ELP-5   07/07/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PUFFIN Apr27 Mar02 Jan25 Oct22 Sep25 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
2  KLIMT'S MUSE Jun16 May20 Apr23 Mar31 Feb22 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 123 8.00    
3  BLING May17 Nov04 Oct07 Aug20 Jul22 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 22% 3.50    
4  SAND AND SEA Jun02 Apr07 Jan29 May15 Apr22 (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  SHEWILLGHOSTU Mar25 Feb22 Jan21 Dec11 Jun22 (mott rile)TORRES A 118 15.00    
6  LUCY'S CAKES FLY Jun17 Apr23 Feb15 Jan18 Oct01 (stuart s)RODRIGUEZ A 118 25.00 5% 19.00    
7  HAY STACK May18 Apr07 Jan22 Nov19 Sep23 (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 24% 3.20    
8  SHE'S ON THE ROCKS Jun11 Apr16 Mar11 Feb01   (gorostieta)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 25% 3.10    
9  LA TOURISTA Jun18 May28 May18 Apr22 Apr13 (vasquez german )LANERIE J 123 6.00    
10  MARGOINABUBBLEBATH Jun03 May05 Apr14 Mar24 Feb23 (habeeb donal)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00    
 
ELP-6   07/07/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PINOTSLILGIRL Jun16         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 6.00 20% 3.90    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of PINOT by INTO MISCHIEF)
2  HOT BEACH         (lynch bria)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 20% 4.10    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of HOT WATER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
3  TEARDROP TIARA         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by UPSTART out of BODE ON TAP by BODEMEISTER)
4  INTEGRATED DESIGN         (hamilton sarah)BEJARANO R 119 25.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ADJUDICATION by FAST PLAY)
5  MIDNIGHT ANGEL (GER) Apr12         (torres a)AYALA ISAIAS 119 12.00 17% 4.80    
  (by WEST COAST out of PIKE CREEK by FOREST CAMP)
6  INCREDIBLY CHICKI         (sharp joe)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of CHICKATINI by BERNARDINI)
SCR  MAXISUPERFLY         (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 114 30.00    
  (by OPTIMIZER out of FIREFLY by WOODMAN)
8  SWEET MIMI         (cox brad )TORRES A 119 5.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of RIVERCANE by AWESOME AGAIN)
9  HERE U COME AGAIN         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 20% 3.90    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of EURO K SHOTGUN by EUROEARS)
10  SOCIAL AFFAIR         (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of ROAMING by QUALITY ROAD)
 
ELP-7   07/07/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUGUSTUS BLUE Jun14 May11 Apr08 Mar10 Feb10 (kerrick lacy)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of BLUE DAHLIA by BUCKHAR)
2  POGOERIACH Jun17 May31 Jun01     (o'donnell marcus)BEJARANO R 124 30.00    
  (by JACK MILTON out of FLOWERY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
3  TESTIMONY TIME Jun22 May27 Apr29     (brumley willia)MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SILVEREST by CONGRATS)
4  ST. JOHN'S Jun02 Apr14 Mar18 Feb18   (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FORTRESS by RAHY)
5  DECANTED May28 Apr08 Feb10 Nov18 Oct16 (maker mic)TORRES A 118 3.50 29% 2.50    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of KAHRUMANA by SHAMARDAL)
6  ENDPOINT Dec31 Nov26 Oct20 Sep22 Aug28 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 31% 2.20    
  (by NYQUIST out of VENTURINI by BERNARDINI)
7  TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF Jun11 Apr29       (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CARRINGTON EVENT by STREET BOSS)
8  PEEK May14 Feb10 Dec29     (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of WE USE TO SING by MINESHAFT)
9  ATHENS MOON May21         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of GASP by TINAJERO)
10  ALOHA MAKUAKANE Jun18         (londono g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 20.00    
  (by FIRST DUDE out of EXCLUSIVE CHIC by YONAGUSKA)
11  GRAND ASPEN Aug05 Jun05       (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of LADY ASPEN by GRAND REWARD)
12  TIZ WICKED STRONG May14         (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 4.50 15% 5.50    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of TIZ KISMET by TIZNOW)
SCR  SELF RULE May28 May11 Feb16 Jan25 Dec31 (preston rand)CALLEJA ANDRES 114 30.00    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of TEMPERENCE GIFT by KINGMAMBO)
SCR  SMOKEY MANDATE May06 Mar25 Mar11     (maker mic)TORRES A 118 3.00    
  (by STRONG MANDATE out of EVEN FOREST by EVEN THE SCORE)
 
ELP-8   07/07/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SPECIALIZIN Jun22 Apr02 Jun23     (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00    
2  YES DAY Apr15 Mar18 Jan14 Dec17 Oct03 (wismer gle)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  PADMA Jun11 May05 Feb04 Jan01 Sep17 (mott i)LANERIE J 120 2.00 44% 1.30    
4  CHECK ENGINE LIGHT Jun11 Apr21 Mar04 Feb05 Dec04 (cox brad )TORRES A 122 3.50 17% 4.90    
5  MISS ARLINGTON Jun15 May20 May02 Apr15 Mar31 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
6  TWO MINUTE DRILL Dec26 Dec02 Oct28 Sep30 Aug26 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 120 12.00    
7  JOKES ON BLUE Dec17 Nov21 Oct30 Sep25 Aug26 (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 120 8.00    
8  RED HOT JEANIE May29 May04 Apr01     (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 120 12.00    
9  GARDEN BELLE Jan18         (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 120 5.00 17% 4.70    
 
ELP-9   07/07/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CENTAURO Jun21 May31 Oct31     (torres a)AYALA ISAIAS 124 30.00    
2  COSMIC STORM Jun15         (maker mic)TORRES A 118 5.00    
3  STORM STRATEGY Jun16 May29 May05 Apr22 Apr02 (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00 7% 13.90    
SCR  SCOTCH NO ROCKS Jun22 Jun10 May21 Apr29 Feb17 (roberson den)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 12.00    
5  MIDNIGHT CHANNEL Jun22 May17 Apr01     (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 8.00    
6  FIXITWITHFORWARD May26 Apr08 Jan28 Dec02   (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00    
7  BOOSTER SHOT Jun16 May30 Apr29 Mar09 Jan20 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50 27% 2.80    
8  POST TENEBRAS LUX Mar10         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 118 20.00    
9  BON BUENO May25 Apr14 Mar26 May28 Apr09 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00 11% 8.30    
SCR  SCAT DANZ Jun01 Mar19 Feb25     (cash l)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
11  HEZMORETHANREADY May30 May15 Aug26 Jul30 Jun27 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 118 4.00 35% 1.80    
12  RURAL Jun17 Apr28 Feb22 Jan19 Dec29 (preston rand)CALLEJA ANDRES 114 15.00 5% 19.00    
13  SPUNS SON May29 Apr29 Dec29 Nov30 Nov19 (hill f)BEJARANO R 124 20.00    
SCR  MY FAVORITE UNCLE May29 Apr29 Mar11 Feb25 Feb10 (galindo-torres c)NAVAS YOEL 117 6.00    
SCR  SHORTLY Mar04 Feb04 Jan28 Dec02 Nov11 (hancock dana)MILLER CHASE 118 6.00    
16  SILVER BULL Jun15 Mar04 Jan21 Dec16   (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.