Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 02, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/02/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG PETE Oct01 Sep15 Aug25 Jul16 Jul03 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 121 10.00 ★    
2  MY FAVORITE UNCLE Oct10 Sep20 Aug31 Jul20 Jun29 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.00 39% 1.60    
3  PAID IN FULL Oct12 Sep24 Apr02 Jan29 Jan15 (hartlage g)JOHNSON M 121 6.00    
4  LEAD ACTOR Oct12 Jul24 May07     (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 121 6.00    
5  SEVEN AND SEVEN         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 4.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  LEVY Sep10 Aug19 Jul10 May11 Apr09 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 16% 5.20    
7  ANGEL OF THE NORTH Oct19 Sep17       (mckeever and)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 5.00 ★    
 
CD-2   11/02/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BANKROLL Sep15 Feb10       (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 19% 4.20    
2  BIG BOSS BEN Sep21 Aug25 Jul28 Jul11 May29 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 14% 5.90    
3  ONCOMING TRAIN Sep28 Jul03 Jun05 Apr23 Feb11 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 2.50 ★    
4  SONO GRATO Oct12 Sep28 Aug20 Jun30 Jan07 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 ★    
5  RIGHT OF RUSH Oct09 Sep21 Jun18 May28 May04 (jazdzewski jon)MOJICA JR 118 15.00    
6  ROMANCER Sep11 Sep03       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 23% 3.40    
 
CD-3   11/02/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CORTESE Oct02 Sep21 Jul30 Jun26 Jun09 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.40 49% 1.00    
2  EL GAVILAN Sep08 Jun01 May20     (fernandez kel)CANUTO THIAGO 118 20.00    
3  BACK BEAT Sep29 Aug29 Jun25     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 ★    
4  LORD GRANTHAM Sep24 Aug27 Jul16     (hawley wesley)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 21% 3.70    
5  BOURBON THERAPY Oct09 Sep08 Jun27 May30 Apr28 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 ★    
6  I'M WIDE AWAKE Sep16 Aug26 Jul16 Jun24   (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 118 10.00 6% 16.90    
 
CD-4   11/02/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VICTORY'S FLAME Sep26         (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 ★    
2  PERFECT ROSE Oct13 Sep29 Sep16 Sep08 Aug13 (vasquez germa)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
3  LEXINGTON DIAMOND         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00 11% 8.50    
4  LIGHTER KNOT Oct13 Aug26 Aug07 Jul09   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00 25% 3.00    
5  GRAY FROST Oct01 Aug14       (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 ★    
6  COTTON CANDY ANNIE Sep29 Sep03 Jul31 Jun29 Jun08 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 1.60 40% 1.50    
7  TRIBAL SPIRIT Sep24         (lovell michel)GILLIGAN JACK 119 8.00    
 
CD-5   11/02/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEYBLADER Oct08 Sep29 Aug27 Jun26 Jun09 (glyshaw tim)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 5% 18.10    
2  BIGGIE Sep12 Jun20 May07     (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 10.00 31% 2.20    
3  MADISON LUVS DUKE May30 May03 Mar26     (stall m)RIQUELME J 121 3.50    
4  CROW'S NEST Oct08         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 35% 1.80    
5  PAID TWICE Oct12 Aug24 Jul24 Jun17 May20 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 121 10.00 ★    
6  MAJESTIC FLAG Sep18         (ortiz john)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
7  MINT Oct16 Sep18 Sep01     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 ★    
8  LIAM THE BRAVE Oct12 Sep22 Sep03     (ewing michael)CANNON DECLAN 121 10.00    
 
CD-6   11/02/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3 ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KUNSHAN BRIDGE Oct20 Sep22 Aug05 Jul29 Jul08 (walden w)SANTANA JR 120 8.00    
2  BONUS APPRECIATION Oct12 Sep11 Sep01 Jul23 Jul08 (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
3  CLASSIC KING Oct12 Sep13 Sep01 Aug25 Aug08 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 120 15.00 ★    
4  ST ANDREWS Oct08 Sep14 Aug20 Aug05 Jun12 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 ★    
SCR  TEXAS RED HOT Sep21 Jul02 Feb26     (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 ★    
6  LIGHTNING STRUCK Aug28 Jul10 Jun24 May21 May06 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 6.00    
7  AWESOME AARON Aug27 Jul23 Jun04 Mar20 Feb24 (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 77% 0.30    
8  SHINNECOCK HILLS Feb19 Jan14       (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 ★    
 
CD-7   11/02/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TELEPHONE TALKER Aug13 Jan29       (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 57% 0.80    
2  EMERALD EXPRESS Oct15 Sep18 Jul24 Jun08 May20 (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00    
3  WAYAKIN Sep28 Sep08 Jul24 Jun19 Apr16 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 120 2.50 5% 19.00    
4  MO'S MOJO Oct13 Sep23 Jul01 May05 Feb25 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00    
5  AMERICAN TATTOO (ARG) Sep30 Sep05 Apr29 Mar24 Feb25 (mott riley)GEROUX FLORENT 120 12.00 ★    
6  TANGO CHARLIE Sep28 Aug25 Jul20 Jun19 May22 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.50 8% 12.30    
7  W W CRAZY Sep24 Aug30 Aug16 Jul23 Jul09 (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 ★    
8  BOLDISH Sep25 Aug24 Jan17     (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00    
SCR  SOARING BIRD Aug06 Jul16 Jun26 May12 Apr16 (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 120 8.00    
 
CD-8   11/02/2022 7920ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALEJANDRO Sep30 Sep10 Aug19 Jul02 Jun09 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 22% 3.60    
2  OFFLEE NAUGHTY Oct09 Aug21 Jul28 Jul01 Jun03 (mccarthy mich)VELAZQUEZ R 121 3.50 ★    
3  SIMOVITCH Sep16 Aug20 Feb19 Jan22   (oliver victo)GEROUX FLORENT 121 15.00    
4  SCARLET FUSION Sep30 Aug13 Jul01 Jun05 Feb25 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00 45% 1.20    
5  SILVER DUST Oct20 Sep25 Jul24 Jun23 May26 (vance d)LANERIE J 121 12.00 5% 17.80    
6  FULL CHARGE Oct09 Aug15 Jul13 Jun09 May12 (west w)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
7  COMMON BOND Sep30 Jul17 May22 Apr24 Mar17 (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00    
8  WESTERN RIVER Sep24 Sep05 Jul29 Jun18 May14 (brisset )SANTANA JR 118 2.50 ★    
 
CD-9   11/02/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZIPPIN GIGI Sep30 Sep03 Jun30 Jun12 Apr14 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
SCR  MASTER OF THE RING Oct12         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00    
SCR  SUTHERLAND Oct16 Sep13 Aug07 Jun30   (calhoun william)LANERIE J 118 3.00 31% 2.20    
4  BADGEBALL Oct16 Sep22 Jun25     (foley greg)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
5  NEPOTISM Oct13 Sep17 Jul04 Jun19 May30 (scherer marianne)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00    
6  WINTERWOOD Sep17 Jul15 Mar04 Jan28   (brennan )SANTANA JR 118 10.00    
SCR  MOMS MOON Oct12 Mar05 Jan15     (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
8  FRENCH COMPOSER Oct05 Sep20 Aug30     (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BRITAIN'S KITTEN Oct12 Aug26 Aug05 Jul04 Jun12 (williamso)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
SCR  CADAMOSTO (IRE) Oct08 Aug14       (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.50 21% 3.80    
SCR  MOUNT RUNDLE Oct26 Sep05 Aug07 Jun05 Apr23 (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.50 5% 19.00    
SCR  BERN N ASH Sep22 Sep01 Jun23 May27 Apr15 (dunn stephen )CANNON DECLAN 121 20.00    
13  ROUGHIN THE CITY Oct26 Sep08 Aug06 Jun30 Jun11 (cano mu)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 30.00    
SCR  BAJ Oct12 Sep10 Jul24 Jan22   (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
15  STELLAR TAP Sep17 Aug12 Jul10 Jun22 Jun04 (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00    
16  FAIR DINKUM Sep18         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 15% 5.70    
17  TIWANAKU Oct01 Sep03 Jul22 Jun30 Jun09 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00    
SCR  ARABIAN PRINCE Oct05 Sep05 Jun18 May28 May06 (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 121 12.00    
 
CD-10   11/02/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOMECOMING QUEEN         (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 ★    
2  UNKEPT SECRET Oct01         (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 4.00 28% 2.50    
3  GIRL AFRAID Oct24 Oct05 Sep20 Aug31 Aug04 (kintz matthew)GRAHAM J 119 3.50 11% 8.30    
4  GOOD TOHAVE AROUND         (beckman whit)MILLER CHASE 119 15.00    
5  SUSIE'S SAVER Sep28         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
SCR  RIGHT NOW Oct13 Sep17 Aug26     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 ★    
7  REDHAIREDCOLLEEN Oct05 Sep14 Aug23 Aug07 Jul23 (reece claire)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
8  DREAMING ALWAYS Sep22         (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00    
9  DIVISIBILITY Oct13         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 39% 1.50    
10  RAGSDALE         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.