Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - May 12, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/1/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/4/7)-(2/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/4/7)-(2/1/4/7)-(2/1/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/4/7)-(4/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4/7)-(4/3)-(6/5/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/3)-(4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/3)-(6/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(6/5/1)-(1/3/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/1)-(6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/1)-(1/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/5/1)-(1/3/6)-(1/3/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/6)-(1/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/6)-(1/3/6)-(1/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/6)-(1/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/6)-(1/3/5)-(1/5/8) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/5)-(1/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/5)-(1/3/5)-(1/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/5)-(1/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/5)-(1/5/8)-(3/7/2/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/8)-(1/5/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/8)-(1/5/8)-(1/5/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/8)-(3/7/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/8)-(3/7/2/1)-(4/9/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/7/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/2/1)-(3/7/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/2/1)-(3/7/2/1)-(3/7/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/2/1)-(4/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2/1)-(4/9/8)-(7/4/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-8   WIN (4/9/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/9/8)-(4/9/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/9/8)-(4/9/5/8)-(4/9/5/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/9/8)-(7/4/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/9/8)-(7/4/8)-(2/4/7/1/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-9   WIN (7/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/8)-(7/4/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/8)-(7/4/8)-(7/4/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/8)-(2/4/7/1/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-10   WIN (2/4/7/1/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/4/7/1/8)-(2/4/7/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/4/7/1/8)-(2/4/7/1/8)-(2/4/7/1/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/12/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NO CONSEQUENCES Mar15 Dec24 Sep02     (sims a)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 31% 2.20    
2  DEFAULT Mar30 Mar06 Feb18 Feb01 Dec31 (vaccarezza car)ORTIZ L 125 2.50 34% 1.90    
3  JOIA RARA Mar20 Feb29 Feb14 Jun10 May10 (caramori eduar)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00    
4  BEAUTIFUL MANDATE Mar22 Mar06 Feb14 Jan27 Dec23 (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 10.00 11% 7.90    
5  INSPECTOR PENNY Apr11 Mar10 Nov20 Oct22   (pessin l)LANERIE J 125 5.00    
6  LA PICASITA Apr14 Mar01 Feb03 Dec28 Nov12 (antonucci j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.00    
7  GIFT GORGEOUS Apr20 Apr10 Mar13     (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-2   05/12/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIAM THE BRAVE Apr11 Mar21 Feb22 Feb08 Jan04 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 124 4.00 ★    
2  AMERICAN HERO May02 Apr11 Apr13 Mar11 Feb11 (leonard iii)GRAHAM J 124 10.00    
3  MY ROMEO LIMA May02 Mar06 Jan04 Dec07 Oct25 (camejo m)NAVAS YOEL 119 2.50 17% 4.90    
4  BARNABY Apr27 Feb09 Dec14 Nov18   (miller kenny)LANERIE J 118 3.50 31% 2.20    
5  STIRDATPOT Apr11 Feb03 Dec20 Oct23 Jul22 (londono genevi)MILLER CHASE 124 3.00    
6  JAY VEE BEE Jun22 May12 Apr22 Mar25 Feb11 (van tho)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 4.50    
 
CD-3   05/12/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUTLIER Apr26 Apr12 Mar28 Mar17 Feb25 (cash norm)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 6% 15.20    
2  DOCTOR NASH Mar30 Feb01 Dec09 Nov12 Sep30 (amoss tho)TORRES A 118 3.00    
3  YONO Apr11 Feb03 Dec20 Nov19 Oct23 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00    
4  BIRD KING Apr20 Mar30 Feb17 Dec09 Nov10 (londono genevi)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 5.00    
5  HE'S GOT THIS Apr10 Mar10 Feb15 Jan13 Dec22 (troiani n)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50 24% 3.10    
6  THE REDS Apr12 Feb17 Nov18 Oct22 Sep14 (amoss thomas)MONCADA IRVING 108 2.50 38% 1.60    
 
CD-4   05/12/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLING Apr13 Dec02 Oct27 Oct06 Sep02 (oliver vi)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 1.80 39% 1.50    
2  BALI BELLE Feb24 Jan13 Dec09 Oct21 Mar25 (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 122 12.00    
3  RO TOWN Apr11 Mar03 Jan26 Jan07 Nov10 (lynch a)ORTIZ L 122 2.00 29% 2.40    
4  HURRY UP HANNAH Mar23 Feb01 Dec20 Nov04 Sep26 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00    
5  IMPLICATED Feb03 Dec23 Nov11 Oct19 Oct28 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50    
6  BREEZE EASY (GB) Apr13 Feb13 Jan06 Dec08 Aug11 (catalano way)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   05/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GROVE ST. Mar13 Feb24 Jun17 May15   (caramori )HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 37% 1.70    
SCR  HURRICANE LASSIE Apr23 Mar21 Mar01 Feb03 Jan07 (heitzman )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 6.00    
3  MARKSWOMAN Nov17 Sep27 May19 Mar05 Nov24 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 3.00 16% 5.30    
4  SMART WITH HEART Apr25 Jan19 Dec31 Dec15 Oct13 (camejo jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00    
5  TAMARA'S WAY Sep20 Sep03 Aug04 Jul16 Jun18 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 123 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  R QUEEN CANDY Feb21 Feb03 Jan03     (bogle fergus)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00    
7  SHES A SECRET Oct20 Sep20 Aug04 Jun24 Jun02 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.50    
 
CD-6   05/12/2024 4950ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($63K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOURMET Apr20 Mar14 Feb17     (asmussen )TORRES A 118 3.00 51% 1.00    
SCR  WHAT'S HER NUMBER Mar24 Feb16 Jan12 Dec09   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
SCR  ILLUSION Apr20 Mar28       (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
4  CHARM OF THE SONG Apr10 Feb11 Dec31 Nov18 Oct19 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 12.00    
5  CLASSIC MYSTERY Nov16 Oct03       (drury j)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00 26% 2.90    
6  AMY Z Apr20 Mar09 Feb02 Dec31 Dec08 (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
SCR  SONGMAKER Apr12         (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 3.50    
8  YES TO CHAMPAGNE Jan28 Dec24 Nov16 Oct25 Sep27 (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   05/12/2024 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAWKS CREEK Apr26 Feb17 Feb03 Jan07 Nov23 (desormeaux)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  WESLAN Apr06 Nov04 Sep23 Sep04 Aug20 (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  B SUDD Apr12 Feb23 Feb03 Jan05 Dec09 (von hemel )HERNANDEZ J 124 4.00 54% 0.90    
4  GAME WARDEN Apr19 Feb18 Jan19 Dec07 Oct06 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00    
5  ROUTE RUNNER Mar23 Sep23 Sep03 Aug02 Jun30 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 6.00    
6  BALANTYNE Mar23 Jan06 Apr22 Feb21 Jun04 (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 124 6.00    
7  GAME KEEPER Apr28 Apr13 Mar29 Mar07 Feb16 (lukas wayn)TORRES A 124 2.50 12% 7.40    
8  RUNNINGFORJOY Mar01 Dec22 Nov24 Nov01 Oct06 (tomlinson mich)ORTIZ L 124 4.00    
 
CD-8   05/12/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUNDBERG Mar08 Feb04 Dec30 Nov09 Oct12 (hernandez )HERNANDEZ J 123 8.00    
SCR  SUPREMELY Apr07 Feb23 Dec29 Nov22 Nov02 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00    
3  J J'S JOKER Mar10 Feb19 Jan06 Dec17 Nov17 (sharp joe)TORRES A 123 6.00    
4  CHANCE Apr26 Mar08 Jan26 Dec29 Nov22 (drury j)ORTIZ L 123 2.50 41% 1.40    
5  G T FIVE HUNDRED Mar29 Feb23 Jan13 Dec07 Nov22 (blair jor)TORRES A 123 6.00 ★    
6  FUNNY UNCLE Apr21 Mar23 Mar08 Feb04 Nov03 (vance d)LANERIE J 123 12.00    
7  CHRYSO ALOGO Apr27 Apr12 Sep22 Aug27   (vasquez s)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
8  GOLD LUCK Apr07 Mar22 Feb23 Jan26 Dec29 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  JUNIOR BUG Mar07 Feb16 Jan05 Dec02 Nov04 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 123 3.50 31% 2.20    
 
CD-9   05/12/2024 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL AHIJADO Apr17 Feb28 Jan10 Dec08 Nov08 (guerrero sal)RIQUELME J 124 50.00    
SCR  ATHENS MOON Mar23 Mar03 Feb22 Jan05 Nov22 (hartman chri)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.00    
3  CAROOM Apr17 Feb25 Feb02 May21 Apr27 (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 8.00    
4  APOLLO RISING Mar29 Mar02 Jan12 Dec07 Oct13 (walden will)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 5.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Nov24 Nov05 Sep28 Sep10 Aug18 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 3.50    
6  DISSOLVED Apr10 Feb17 Oct21 Aug26 Jul30 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 5.00    
7  TAPIT SHOES Aug13 Jun10 Apr22 Feb18 Jan21 (cox brad )DETTORI LANFRANCO 124 2.50 30% 2.40    
8  BERRETTINI Aug04 Jun22 May28 Apr20 Sep03 (mcgee pau)LEPAROUX R 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GLEN AIRY Apr19 Feb08 Jan15 Nov10 Oct19 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.00    
 
CD-10   05/12/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINTS MONEY Apr20         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SUPERNATURAL by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  SEND CASH         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 33% 2.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CASH IN by TAPIT)
3  MONDOGETSBUCKETS         (lynch a)ORTIZ L 118 10.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of MY MISS CHIFF by INTO MISCHIEF)
4  SAHALAT Aug19         (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 124 4.50 33% 2.10    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of DASHING DEBBY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  MISTER LINCOLN Mar23 Feb17       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of HOT DIXIE CHICK by DIXIE UNION)
6  GLACIAL POWER Mar06 Jul08       (camejo jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 15.00    
  (by ASTERN out of KODIAC GAL by KODIAC)
7  CAPITAL CONNECTION Apr14 Mar15 Jan27     (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 3.50 5% 17.30    
  (by CONNECT out of KARAOKE QUEEN by FLATTER)
8  REAGAN Nov19 Sep29       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of HISTORY SUPREME by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
9  HOLD MY BOURBON Apr19 Mar23       (reed r)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.50    
  (by ANCHOR DOWN out of TIZ MAY WEST by TIZ WONDERFUL)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.