Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Keeneland
Thursday - April 11, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

KEE-1   WIN (8/5/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/1/7)-(8/5/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/1/7)-(8/5/1/7)-(8/5/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/5/1/7)-(9/3/4/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/5/1/7)-(9/3/4/6)-(6/10/2/1/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-2   WIN (9/3/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/3/4/6)-(9/3/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/3/4/6)-(9/3/4/6)-(9/3/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/3/4/6)-(6/10/2/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/3/4/6)-(6/10/2/1/4)-(8/1/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-3   WIN (6/10/2/1/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/10/2/1/4)-(6/10/2/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/10/2/1/4)-(6/10/2/1/4)-(6/10/2/1/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/10/2/1/4)-(8/1/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/10/2/1/4)-(8/1/7)-(5/4/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
KEE-4   WIN (8/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/7)-(8/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/1/7)-(8/1/7)-(8/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/1/7)-(5/4/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/1/7)-(5/4/8)-(3/13/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
KEE-5   WIN (5/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/8)-(5/4/8/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/8)-(5/4/8/1/9)-(5/4/8/1/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/4/8)-(3/13/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/4/8)-(3/13/2)-(10/9/1/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-6   WIN (3/13/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/13/2)-(3/13/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/13/2)-(3/13/2)-(3/13/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/13/2)-(10/9/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/13/2)-(10/9/1/6)-(12/11/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-7   WIN (10/9/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/9/1/6)-(10/9/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/9/1/6)-(10/9/1/6)-(10/9/1/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (10/9/1/6)-(12/11/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/9/1/6)-(12/11/3)-(10/9/8/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-8   WIN (12/11/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (12/11/3)-(12/11/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (12/11/3)-(12/11/3)-(12/11/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (12/11/3)-(10/9/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
KEE-9   WIN (10/9/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/9/8/2)-(10/9/8/6/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/9/8/2)-(10/9/8/6/2)-(10/9/8/6/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
KEE-1   04/11/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JACKIE'S LOVE Feb01 Dec21 Nov05 Oct12 Sep01 (butcher jame)CALLEJA ANDRES 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CHIQUITA MOSCA Mar28 Jan25 Dec05 Nov24 Oct27 (bahena )DE CRUZ 125 2.50    
LITTLE DIXIE Mar15 Feb01 Jan03 Dec20 Nov23 (reavis mic)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 5.00    
DIVINELY BOLT Mar15 Feb14 Jan03 Nov04 Sep03 (simms jr)ORTIZ L 125 4.50    
IT WASN'T ME Feb15 Dec14 Nov25 Oct26 Aug06 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 125 4.00 7% 12.60    
SCR  Q BOND Mar21 Oct24 Sep22 Sep06 Jul29 (alvarez ner)MIRANDA ROGELIO 125 20.00    
SHEAR Mar15 Feb28 Feb03 Jan13 Dec23 (estvanko richa)MACHADO LUAN 125 30.00 5% 19.00    
TAKE SHAPE Mar20 Feb07 Dec22 Nov23 Sep13 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 125 3.50 58% 0.70    
 
KEE-2   04/11/2024 2970ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BAYTOWN STORM         (mcentee paul)MONCADA IRVING 109 8.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of CHARMING SHE IS by JOHAR)
CITIZEN JUDY         (ennis joh)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of HONESTLY DEB by SUPER SAVER)
HER HOLY NAME         (hancock john )LEBRON VICTOR 119 4.50 11% 7.90    
  (by KANTHAROS out of I'LL TAKE THAT by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
BAYTOWN AMY ROSE         (mcentee paul)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 6.00 5% 17.50    
  (by GAME WINNER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
RIO DE PAZ         (ramo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 30.00    
  (by BAL A BALI out of AMERICAN ROSE by DIGRESSION)
MISTY SUNDAY         (chapman jam)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of MAJESTIC PRINCESS by CAIRO PRINCE)
SCR  CRUZ CHICA         (ginter raymon)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 30.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of MOOLAMISS by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  IMAGE OF ME Apr07         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00    
  (by HOOTENANNY out of DELTALINA by FIRST SAMURAI)
PERFECT SHANCES         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 119 1.60 46% 1.20    
  (by SHANCELOT out of AMERICAN BABY by CONQUISTADOR CIELO)
 
KEE-3   04/11/2024 5940ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FEDAH Mar23         (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00 5% 17.50    
SILENT SECRETARY (BRZ) Mar27 Mar06 Feb18 Jan28 Jan01 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 126 8.00 6% 15.40    
PITTORE D'ORO Mar06 Feb22 Feb03 Jan06 Dec22 (michael brian)JIMENEZ ALBIN 126 30.00    
MAYLEN Mar08 Feb16 Jan26 Dec14 Aug30 (leonard george )COHEN DAVID 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
INSPECTOR PENNY Mar10 Nov20 Oct22     (pessin l)LANERIE J 126 10.00    
BLUE VORTEX Mar08 Feb09 Jan11 Dec21 Nov17 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 46% 1.20    
STAGE RIGHT Mar09         (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
LUMINOUS RULER Mar07 Feb16 Dec31 Nov25 Oct19 (barnett c)RIQUELME J 118 8.00    
SNAP JUDGEMENT (IRE) Mar16         (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 126 30.00    
10  TRES CHIC (ARG) Mar27 Feb22 Jan06 Dec14 Jul02 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 126 3.00 16% 5.20    
 
KEE-4   04/11/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROCK N ROLL BOLT Mar09 Feb15 Jan13 Dec14 Nov18 (camejo m)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00 15% 5.50    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of BLAKELY'S SMILE by WILDCAT HEIR)
GUILTY AFFAIR Mar24 Dec09 Nov21     (barnett c)GRAHAM J 125 30.00    
  (by BLAME out of JENNIFER'S AFFAIR by NUREYEV)
SCR  MIDWAY LIGHTS Mar09         (dutrow ric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 4.50    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of CHUCKLING by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  CAGE MATCH Mar09         (dutrow richar)ORTIZ JR 125 3.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of CATCHING DIAMONDS by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  PAVED IN GOLD Mar16 Feb10       (rutledge l)CORRALES GERARDO 125 15.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of YAHILWA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
TONKA TROUBLE         (wismer s)ORTIZ L 118 20.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of KAYCE LU by LONHRO (AUS))
ACCIDENT Mar30 Mar16 Feb17 Feb03 Jan06 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of NOT JAVA by NOT BOURBON)
JEFFERSON STREET Mar02 Sep02       (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 1.00 63% 0.60    
  (by STREET SENSE out of APIARY by BERNARDINI)
 
KEE-5   04/11/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DUAL MONARCHY Feb23 Jan27 Jan06 Nov23 Oct20 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 125 2.50    
WELAKA Mar22 Aug26 Jul14 Mar24 Jan08 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 10.00    
LUKE Feb29 Jan11 Nov25 Oct29   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.50    
FAN THE FIRE Mar09 Feb04 Dec17 Nov02 Oct07 (cano mu)GEROUX FLORENT 125 6.00 16% 5.40    
WRITE OFF JERRY Mar21 Feb14 Feb02 Jan10 Dec14 (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 118 4.50 57% 0.80    
WRITEITONTHEICE Mar15 Feb17 Jul13 May25 May12 (hester h)RODRIGUEZ A 125 20.00    
STRIKING SPARKS Sep30 Jul29 Jul12     (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
HASKELLED Mar15 Feb23 Feb08 Jan24 Jan11 (delacruz joe)GRAHAM J 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
LIAMS LAD Mar21 Mar06 Feb17 Oct03 Sep23 (evans mic)CORREA L 125 30.00    
10  AMERICUS Jan12 Nov23 Oct31 Oct04   (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 8.00    
 
KEE-6   04/11/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EMBRACE ME Mar09 Feb10 Nov12 Sep22 Aug25 (albertran)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
RO TOWN Mar03 Jan26 Jan07 Nov10 Apr07 (lynch brian)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 12.00 14% 6.20    
SPANSIVE Mar02 Jan27 Jun11 May13 Apr01 (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  PLEASANT PASSAGE Aug17 Jul27 Jun18 Apr08 Nov04 (mcgaughey cla)ORTIZ JR 118 6.00    
SCR  QUALITY STAR Dec07 Oct07 Sep10 May27 Apr13 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 30.00    
WOOHOO JACKIE BLUE Feb22 Feb03 Apr12 Mar25 Oct20 (schultz linds)VELAZQUEZ R 118 15.00    
SCR  MAKE THE BOYS WINK Nov24 Nov04 Oct11 Sep10 Aug13 (medina robert)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
SCR  SWOOP TO FINISH Jan27 Dec30 Nov12 Sep01 Jul04 (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 118 8.00    
STIR CRAZY Feb25 Dec07 Nov12 Sep15 Aug02 (maker michael )ORTIZ L 118 20.00    
10  STRIKINGLY SPUN Nov01 Aug31 Aug04 Jul08 Jun11 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
SCR  PAPILIO (IRE) Feb24 Oct14 Aug04 Jul08 Jun03 (casse mark)CASTELLANO J 118 1.80    
SCR  SECRET STATEMENT Nov24 Nov01 Oct11 Sep21 May05 (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 30.00    
13  STORY HOUR Feb11 Dec27 Nov23 Oct19 Sep29 (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 16% 5.20    
 
KEE-7   04/11/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LIAM THE BRAVE Mar21 Feb22 Feb08 Jan04 Dec20 (esquivel )PEDROZA MARCELINO 125 15.00 8% 10.80    
COTE D'IVOIRE Mar01 Feb08 Jan24 Dec29 Dec16 (andrade hugo)TERRAZA GERMAN 120 30.00    
SCR  COOKE CREEK Feb17 Dec22 Nov11 Oct14 Jun03 (o'dwyer jeremi)ROSARIO JOEL 125 2.50    
STIRDATPOT Feb03 Dec20 Oct23 Jul22 Jul06 (londono genevi)MILLER CHASE 125 20.00    
YONO Feb03 Dec20 Nov19 Oct23 Sep27 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 125 15.00    
C F V BULLET Feb22 Dec09 Oct23 Sep25 Jun27 (gonzale)DE CRUZ 125 15.00 6% 17.10    
SANT' ANTIMO Mar01 Feb03 Dec09 Nov03 Oct11 (esquivel j)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.50    
SCR  MY ROMEO LIMA Mar06 Jan04 Dec07 Oct25 Oct13 (camejo jose )BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 5.00    
AMERICAN HERO Apr13 Mar11 Feb11 Jan21 Dec17 (leonard george )COHEN DAVID 125 6.00 17% 4.90    
10  HAROLD'S CLOUD Mar06 Feb08 Jan18 Dec30 Nov30 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 125 4.00 43% 1.30    
 
KEE-8   04/11/2024 5940ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($130K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  READY TO PURRFORM Mar02 Apr20 Jan21 Oct29 Sep05 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00    
SCR  BAY STREET MONEY Jun17 May20 Apr01 Feb18 Jan13 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
EL KABONG Feb17 Jan04 Dec01 Jul09 May20 (arnold r)LANERIE J 118 30.00 6% 15.10    
UNCLE JAKE Mar07 Jan28 Oct17 Aug26 Jul21 (vaccarezza car)ROSARIO JOEL 118 10.00    
SCR  THE GREY WIZARD (IRE) Jul30 Jun09 Apr27 Feb05 Jan20 (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 118 6.00    
QUADRA ISLAND Feb17 Dec23 Nov15 Oct14 Aug18 (ortiz john )CONCEPCION AXEL 118 30.00    
GUNTON ROE Feb17 Jan05 Aug20 Jul09 Jan21 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
SCR  UNDERDRESSED Feb17 Dec23 Nov18 Oct19 Oct06 (west m)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
SCR  CHASING THE CROWN Feb17 Jan20 Sep07 Jul20 Jun22 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00    
SCR  FORT WASHINGTON Dec30 Oct19 Sep03 Aug12 May06 (mcgaughey c)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 4.00    
11  SANTORINI Feb17 Jan06 Dec02 Oct28 Sep07 (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00 14% 6.20    
12  LIMITED LIABILITY Nov11 Oct13 Jul22 May20 Apr23 (mcgaughey clau)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 57% 0.70    
SCR  GIANT GAME Mar01 Nov24 Nov04 Aug25 Aug05 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
SCR  HAYES STRIKE Mar09 Feb17 Jul08 Jun24 May29 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00    
 
KEE-9   04/11/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DREAMING ALWAYS Mar16 Feb23 Feb02 Jan07 Apr19 (forster t)LANERIE J 125 15.00    
LASERJET Mar16 Feb14 Feb03 Jan06 Dec23 (antonuik j)CORRALES GERARDO 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
VIVID EXPOSURE Mar15 Jan24 Dec22 Dec02 Oct24 (caramori edu)MONCADA IRVING 115 30.00    
MISSY BEE Mar15 Feb29 Jan24 Dec29 Dec13 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 20.00    
SCR  MARCO SUNSET Mar24 Mar03 Feb02 Jan12 Jan01 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00    
UPSWELL Mar10 Feb18 Jan01 Nov23 Nov03 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 125 4.50    
LANETTA Mar07 Jan28 Feb15 Jan01   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 125 6.00    
BLUE GUITAR Mar27 Mar07 Feb23 Feb07 Jan13 (engler jeff)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
ROCK STAR DOCTOR Jan27 Nov18 Oct27 Sep20 Aug13 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  PERFECTLY WICKED Mar22 Feb24 Jan12 Dec13 Nov05 (russell britt)ORTIZ JR 118 2.50 65% 0.50    
11  AL TIRAH Mar01 Feb14 Dec13 Mar11 Jan14 (torres c)RODRIGUEZ A 125 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.