Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - December 07, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(5/6)-(3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-2   WIN (5/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/6)-(5/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/6)-(3/4) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5/6)-(3/4)-(5/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/4)-(3/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/4)-(5/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/4)-(5/6/3)-(1/5/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-4   WIN (5/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/3)-(5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/3)-(1/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/6/3)-(1/5/3)-(1/3/9/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-5   WIN (1/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/3)-(1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/3)-(1/3/9/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/3)-(1/3/9/2)-(8/4/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-6   WIN (1/3/9/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/9/2)-(1/3/9/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/9/2)-(1/3/9/2)-(1/3/9/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/9/2)-(8/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/9/2)-(8/4/1)-(8/9/1/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-7   WIN (8/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/4/1)-(8/4/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/4/1)-(8/4/2/1)-(8/4/2/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/4/1)-(8/9/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/4/1)-(8/9/1/4)-(5/8/9/13/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-8   WIN (8/9/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/9/1/4)-(8/9/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/9/1/4)-(8/9/1/4)-(8/9/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/9/1/4)-(5/8/9/13/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
AQU-9   WIN (5/8/9/13/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/9/13/3)-(5/8/9/13/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/8/9/13/3)-(5/8/9/13/3)-(5/8/9/13/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   12/07/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 3UP M/F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RISK FREE Oct14 Sep15 Aug25 Jul30 Jul08 (delauro edward )CANCEL ERIC 122 3.00 45% 1.20    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of KEEP CROSSING by ISTAN)
2  SPLIT SCREEN         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 122 1.80 28% 2.60    
  (by UNCLE MO out of DIVIDED ATTENTION by A.P. INDY)
3  NYXED Oct28 Sep21 Oct22 Oct01   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 2.50    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of ZINZAY by SMART STRIKE)
4  ALLEGEDLY (IRE) Nov16 Jul30       (martin f)DAVIS KATIE 122 15.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of ROMANTICISM by GONE WEST)
5  FRAU DIABLO Aug25 Jul30       (maker micha)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of AUNT ESME by BIRDSTONE)
6  LIGHTBULB MOMENT Oct28 Dec15       (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 122 4.50    
  (by ARROGATE out of SCARY NOT SCARED by MALIBU MOON)
 
AQU-2   12/07/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  COMMANDING GENERAL Oct27 Oct14 Sep24 Sep16 Aug12 (wilson faith)OLVER MADISON 115 8.00    
2  RYAN'S CAT Oct14 Apr01 Mar19 Feb18 Jan27 (rodriguez gu)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 8.00    
3  POPPY'S PRIDE Nov03 Oct14 Sep16 Aug19 Jul23 (toscano jo)RIVERA R 117 3.50    
SCR  PRINCE JAMES Nov26 Nov11 Sep16 Jul22 Jun24 (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 120 6.00    
5  THINKABOUTIT Oct14 Aug18 Jul14 Jun04 May21 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 122 1.20 50% 1.00    
6  POWERFULLY BUILT Nov07 Oct16 Oct02 Sep04 Jul14 (abrams jack)SILVERA RUBEN 124 5.00 13% 6.80    
7  BOURBON'S HOPE Nov26 Nov03 Oct22 Sep28 Aug04 (jones eduard)HARKIE K 120 15.00    
 
AQU-3   12/07/2023 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 2 F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JAYCE AND LIAM Nov06 Oct16 Sep20 Aug01   (englehart jeffr)RUIZ ELISEO 114 20.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of NICKEL by NICHOLAS)
2  SWEET DISTRACTION Nov21 Jul29       (st uri)HADDOCK DEXTER 119 30.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ESCULTURA by PULPIT)
3  MARTINGALE Sep17         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 119 2.50 41% 1.40    
  (by CURLIN out of SI SI TEQUILA by YES IT'S TRUE)
4  CLASS ACT Nov11 Sep21       (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 119 1.60 35% 1.80    
  (by STREET SENSE out of MISS DRAKE by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  CELESTIAL EXPRESS Nov03 Oct14       (contessa c)DAVIS KATIE 119 12.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of BLUE ANGEL EXPRESS by MARCIANO)
6  RYE TIGRESS         (atras rob)RIVERA R 114 10.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of UCHITEL by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  REGULATORY RISK Oct25 Sep16       (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 119 1.80    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of WALKWITHAPURPOSE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
 
AQU-4   12/07/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROVISION Nov02 Oct25 Oct05 Aug18 Jul02 (noda orlan)RIVERA R 115 10.00    
2  APOLLO RISING Oct13 Jul21 Jul01 May28 Apr21 (walden willia)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.60    
3  HOMETOWN HERO Nov16 Nov03 Sep20 Aug26 Aug19 (englehart chr)SILVERA RUBEN 121 10.00 11% 7.80    
4  LIFE AND LIGHT Oct28 Oct14 Oct05 Sep21 Jul21 (pringle edmun)OLVER MADISON 115 15.00    
5  COMPLETE AGENDA Oct21 Aug24 Jul16 May21 Apr23 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.00 34% 1.90    
6  THISTLE Oct24 Sep04 Aug18 Jan17 Nov09 (catalano m )MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 4.00 14% 6.30    
7  STRONG LIGHT Nov26 Nov11 Oct15 Oct04 Sep14 (youngh)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 8.00    
 
AQU-5   12/07/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CINDERELLA'S CAUSE Aug03 Jul02 Jun01 May11 Apr13 (falcone robert )CARMOUCHE K 123 3.00 38% 1.60    
2  SISTER LINDA Nov30 Oct15 Jun01 Mar30 Dec29 (nevin michelle)RUIZ ELISEO 116 2.00    
3  APRIL ANTICS Oct29 Sep24 Aug23 Jul26 Jul03 (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 123 2.50 8% 11.30    
4  CARBON Nov25 Nov16 Oct19 Oct08 Sep24 (youngh)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 10.00    
5  GOLDEN ROCKET Nov09 Oct13 Sep14 Aug27 Jul19 (farro patricia)LEZCANO JOSE 121 4.50 22% 3.50    
6  AMITY ISLAND Nov16 Oct26 Jun16 May18 May04 (fisher linda)LUZZI J 121 15.00    
7  EROS'S GIRL Nov14 Oct02 Sep13 Jul26 Jul12 (ferraro an)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 15.00    
 
AQU-6   12/07/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOXY CARA Nov19 Oct12 Sep24 Aug27 Aug12 (friedman mitc)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.00 43% 1.30    
  (by MASTERY out of THEYPLAYINGOURSONG by SONGANDAPRAYER)
2  STEPPIN' HAWK Jul09 May21 Apr02 Mar11 Feb11 (hosang olive)HARKIE K 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TWO STEP SALSA out of GOSHEN HAWK by COZAR)
3  EASTERN STAR Nov19 Oct26       (donk david)DAVIS DYLAN 122 2.50 31% 2.30    
  (by HONORABLE DILLON out of FIVE SONGS by FORESTRY)
4  RED JASMINE Mar12         (ferraro w)RUIZ ELISEO 119 15.00    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of ZIGGY FREUD by FREUD)
5  KRYSTALHEIR Nov19 Aug27 Jul15 May21 Mar18 (coffey m)DAVIS A 122 15.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of ARELLA PRINCESS by LIMEHOUSE)
6  MOONLIT WEEKEND         (duggan p)DAVIS KATIE 122 10.00    
  (by WEEKEND HIDEAWAY out of DUCASA by DISCREET CAT)
7  BUSSIA Oct12 Jul22       (bond harol)RIVERA R 117 4.50    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of LISINI by GRAND SLAM)
8  SHE'S A NATURAL Nov17 Oct26 Sep24 Sep14 Jul29 (sciacc)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 10.00    
  (by BAL A BALI out of BARGAINING TABLE by BROTHER DEREK)
9  GHOSTBUSTIN         (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of YOUR TIME IS UP by FREUD)
 
AQU-7   12/07/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUR LITTLE TIGER Nov14 Oct23 Sep06 Aug07 Jul11 (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  ITS COLD IN DEHERE Nov24 Nov10 Oct06 Aug16 Aug03 (toscano jo)RIVERA R 117 4.50 ★    
3  HYDRA Nov25 Oct27 Aug25 Jul28 Jun24 (toscano t)DAVIS DYLAN 124 4.00    
4  TIMED OUT Sep28 Aug24 Jul12 Jun14 May31 (noda orlando)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 5.00 11% 8.20    
5  CAPTIVATING CARA Jul11 Jun15 Jun02 May04 Apr13 (englehart chr)SILVERA RUBEN 124 12.00    
6  JACKIE THE JOKER Nov10 Oct20 Aug24 Jul23 May26 (bernardini juan)CANCEL ERIC 120 6.00    
7  VEGAS WEEKEND Nov09 Oct15 Aug16 May11 Apr21 (martin f)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50    
8  SLACK TIDE Nov10 Oct08 Jul23 Jun25 Jun04 (potts wayne)OLVER MADISON 115 5.00 65% 0.50    
9  VALLARAND Nov24 Oct06 Sep11 Aug24 Jul02 (jones eduard)HARKIE K 122 30.00    
 
AQU-8   12/07/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($80K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZEEBEAR Oct29 Sep28 Sep21 Aug05 Jul15 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 6.00 8% 11.10    
2  FACTUALLY CORRECT Oct29 Oct20 Aug27 Aug18 Jul04 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 122 8.00    
3  DREAMPOINT Nov11 Oct20 Aug26 Jun01 May06 (sells rachel)HARKIE K 124 20.00    
4  SIMPLY Mar10 Jan26 Jan05 Dec09 Oct16 (hennig mar)RIVERA R 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  THRILL OF IT Nov04 Oct04 Aug23 Jul23 Jun22 (terran)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 10.00    
6  BREW PUB Nov15 Sep21 Aug05 Jul01 May21 (englehart c)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 12.00    
7  MASON MANIA Nov04 Oct18 Sep26 Sep12 Aug02 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 122 8.00    
8  SHADOW DRAGON Oct15 Oct04 Aug02 Jul07 Jun03 (mott william )FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 53% 0.90    
9  RADIO RED Oct29 Sep21 Aug23 May29 May06 (gargan danny)DAVIS DYLAN 122 5.00 13% 6.80    
SCR  BRONX BOMBER Nov03 Sep28 Aug23 Jun03 Apr20 (kantarmaci m)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 20.00    
SCR  ANDIAMO A FIRENZE Oct12 Sep02 Jul23 May12 Mar19 (david a)CANCEL ERIC 120 10.00    
 
AQU-9   12/07/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOMAMA BEACH Nov10 Sep21 Aug19 Jul09 Jun03 (jerkens ste)PAREDES JHOVANY 115 50.00    
2  VAUNTED Nov10 Oct28 Sep04 Aug17 Jul21 (ryerson t)RUIZ ELISEO 117 8.00    
3  FIRST SONS         (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  CHALKY CAT Nov02 Oct15 Aug20 Aug02 Jul07 (barker edw)RIVERA R 117 12.00    
5  BUSTINO SANTINO Nov10 Oct12 Sep04 Aug02 Jan07 (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 122 3.50 53% 0.90    
6  ALPHA SONNY Jul21 Jul07 Jun18     (ferraro ja)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 117 30.00    
7  COMPROMISER Jul28 Jun30 Jun09     (grossman bru)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 12.00    
8  WOODSIDE WARRIOR Nov10 Oct15 Sep22 Aug20 Jul21 (sciacca gary)DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.00 9% 10.00    
9  SHARPAZ Nov10 Jun25 May29 Dec08 Nov11 (duggan)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 6.00 8% 11.60    
10  SIN NOMBRE Nov10 Aug20 Jul21     (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 122 15.00    
11  WAR PRINCE Nov10 Oct15 Sep22 Jun03 May13 (atras rob)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 15.00    
12  MAJESTIC ARC Nov10 Oct15 Sep22 Aug19   (shivmangal lol)LUZZI J 124 30.00    
13  MESSI THE MAGICIAN         (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.