Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Tuesday - November 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (1/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/5/7)-(7/4/8/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5/7)-(7/4/8/5)-(5/2/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-2   WIN (7/4/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/8/5)-(7/4/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/8/5)-(7/4/8/5)-(7/4/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/8/5)-(5/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/8/5)-(5/2/7)-(4/7/3/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-3   WIN (5/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/7)-(5/2/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/7)-(5/2/7)-(5/2/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/7)-(4/7/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/7)-(4/7/3/1)-(4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
MVR-4   WIN (4/7/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/3/1)-(4/7/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/3/1)-(4/7/3/1)-(4/7/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7/3/1)-(4/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/7/3/1)-(4/5)-(4/6/3/2) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
MVR-5   WIN (4/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/5)-(4/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/5)-(4/6/3/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/5)-(4/6/3/2)-(1/5/6/3) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
MVR-6   WIN (4/6/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/3/2)-(1/5/6/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/6/3/2)-(1/5/6/3)-(3/5/9/1) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
MVR-7   WIN (1/5/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/6/3)-(1/5/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/6/3)-(1/5/6/3)-(1/5/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/6/3)-(3/5/9/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/5/6/3)-(3/5/9/1)-(2/6/1/3) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
MVR-8   WIN (3/5/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/9/1)-(3/5/9/4/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/5/9/1)-(3/5/9/4/1)-(3/5/9/4/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/5/9/1)-(2/6/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
MVR-9   WIN (2/6/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/1/3)-(2/6/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/1/3)-(2/6/1/3)-(2/6/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   11/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.1K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONSTITUTIONALIST Oct30 Oct10 Sep19 Sep05 Aug24 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 122 3.00 37% 1.70    
2  ENCHANTED MELODY Sep14 Aug22 Aug01 Jul05 Jun20 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 122 12.00    
3  LIGHT UP MY LIFE Sep25 Jun22 Jun01     (radosevich ju)BRACHO A 122 10.00    
4  BELLAVALENCIA Oct30 Oct09 Sep20 Aug21 Aug07 (flores christian)AVILES YAN 124 6.00    
5  BEAUTY IN MOTION Oct30 Oct12 Sep22     (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 122 3.50 10% 8.70    
6  ITALIAN TWIN Oct11 Sep26 Aug28 Aug07 Jul10 (pappada juli)ROSARIO L 124 4.00 20% 4.10    
7  FLASH OF CHEROKEE Oct09 Sep19 Aug08 Jul26 Jul12 (shanyfe)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 4.50 7% 13.60    
8  SOLDAT TEMPTATION Oct30 Sep12 Aug23 Jul18 Jun26 (salcedo ramon)GONZALEZ A 124 8.00    
 
MVR-2   11/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 2 F PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG FACTS Oct28 Sep05       (radosevi)FERNANDEZ R 120 8.00    
2  SALTMAKESHERSWEET Oct30 Oct11 Sep25 Sep05 Aug15 (rone mike)RIVERA R 122 6.00    
3  KISS ME QUICK Oct11 Sep25 Aug12 Jul13   (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 120 8.00    
4  FANCIFUL Oct28 Oct09 Aug30 Aug01   (cara)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 3.00 30% 2.30    
5  PRETTY PATTY Aug12 Jun29       (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  TWISTED JUSTICE Sep22 Aug30 Aug12 Jul22 Jun29 (smith lar)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 120 8.00    
7  ARTISTIC LANEY Jul22 Jun29       (west m)AVILES YAN 120 3.50 33% 2.00    
8  GOLD HONEY Oct28 Aug15 Jul22 Jun24   (rivera nestor)BOWEN ROCCO 120 4.00 10% 9.50    
 
MVR-3   11/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($30.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZAKARIA Oct06 Sep04 Aug09 Jul13 May06 (yoder )BATISTA ALBERTO 124 6.00    
2  TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH Aug08 May22 Feb28 Nov28 Nov09 (ibarra marco)BARBARAN ERIK 124 3.00 22% 3.50    
3  BEAT THE DEALER Oct11 Sep25 Aug24 Aug07 Jul13 (zielinski ric)BRACHO A 124 3.50    
4  IT'S OFFICIAL Oct06 Sep18 Jul22 Jul10 Jun27 (juarez lorenzo)AVILES YAN 124 5.00    
5  PLAY BALL Oct03 Aug30 Jul31 May22 Apr06 (urieta )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 4.00 24% 3.10    
6  DERBY INCLUDED Oct28 Oct02 Aug28 Aug09 Jul29 (cline c)DIAZ I 124 4.50    
7  BISCUITS AND GRITS Sep18 Nov09 Sep21 Sep01 Jul25 (rone mike)RIVERA R 124 10.00 22% 3.60    
 
MVR-4   11/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CREATIVE BEAT         (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 124 15.00 8% 12.30    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of VIENNA MELODY by MALIBU MOON)
2  FINISTERE Oct30 Oct05       (vecchio caryn)REYES FRANK 124 15.00    
  (by VERRAZANO out of FLEURON by DISTANT VIEW)
3  MOTOWN COLLECTION Oct30 Oct05 Sep11 Aug23 Jul31 (rone mike)RIVERA R 124 3.00 11% 8.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of DREAM OF BERTIE by READY'S IMAGE)
4  SHORTLY Oct13 Sep25 Aug20 Jul09 Mar04 (zielins)PILARES P 124 2.00 32% 2.20    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of ISABELLE by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
5  C C'S CLEAR CREEK Oct30 Oct13 Sep25 Sep06 Jul10 (trevino steph)CEDILLO MAURO 126 8.00    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of PUTAH CREEK by CEE'S TIZZY)
6  LOUIS Oct12 Aug10 Jul22     (cline robert)ROSARIO L 126 6.00    
  (by TRAPPE SHOT out of LITTLE BULL RUN by HOLY BULL)
7  QUICK QUICK WHIT Oct30 Oct05 Jun21 Jun05 Apr16 (skerret)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 3.50 27% 2.70    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of SMARTY SMART by CONGRATS)
8  DARK BARON Sep24 Sep01 Sep03 Aug22 Aug06 (tumblin andre)BARBARAN ERIK 124 10.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of BARONESS JULIETTE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
MVR-5   11/14/2023 5490ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($40.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAVEN MOON Oct28 Sep18 Aug24 Aug16 Jul22 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 126 2.50    
2  OAKS HONEY Oct03 Sep12 Aug28 Aug12 Jul05 (brown )BATISTA ALBERTO 123 10.00    
3  SILENCE Oct28 Sep13 Aug12 Jul05 Jun02 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 123 3.00    
4  TANTRUM Oct28 Oct02 Aug12 Jul20 Jun27 (hamm timothy)RIVERA R 123 1.80 43% 1.40    
5  HENRY MAC Oct04 Sep12 Aug16 Jul22 Jul05 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 123 6.00 14% 6.20    
SCR  MO DONT NO Oct28 Oct04 Aug08 Jun26 Jun06 (radosevi)FERNANDEZ R 123 8.00    
 
MVR-6   11/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($27.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DISCLOSURE Nov01 Oct25 Oct02 Aug31 Aug15 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 124 15.00    
2  SO DIALED IN Nov01 Oct02 Aug28 Aug16 Jul20 (skerrett)FERNANDEZ R 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  JOHN'S ROCK Oct03 Sep12 Aug16 Jul24 Jul05 (vecchio ca)COLINA ALEJANDRO 124 15.00 7% 13.20    
4  DOWNTOWN CONNECTOR Nov02 Oct02 Sep18 Aug24 Jul26 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 124 4.00 45% 1.20    
5  STAR HAWK Oct12 Sep26 Aug28 Aug09 Feb08 (erdel john)DIAZ I 124 3.50    
6  BREEZY MONEY Oct03 Sep18 Aug29 Aug15 Aug02 (rivera )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 3.00 20% 4.10    
SCR  STATESBORO Nov02 Sep26 Aug28 Aug15 Jul14 (londono odin )BRACHO A 124 12.00    
8  SUMMERFEST Oct19 Sep28 Sep20 Sep05 Aug17 (urieta johanna)BOWEN ROCCO 124 20.00    
9  REGULAR GUY Jul11 May28 May07 Apr16 Mar24 (catalano wayn)BARBARAN ERIK 124 2.50    
 
MVR-7   11/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($30.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUJARA Oct31 Oct11 Aug21 Aug07 Jul11 (rivera nestor)BOWEN ROCCO 124 1.80 33% 2.00    
2  HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE Oct28 Oct10 Oct02 Sep11 Aug21 (romero osc)COLINA ALEJANDRO 124 15.00    
3  MISSION GIRL Oct02 Sep12 Aug21 Jul17 Jun15 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 124 4.00 6% 15.70    
4  CATABOUT Oct06 Sep11 Aug17 Jul13 Jun26 (faulkn)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 15.00    
5  ROLLIN ALL THE WAY Oct28 Sep26 Aug31 Feb23 Feb14 (urieta johanna)GONZALEZ A 124 6.00 19% 4.20    
6  PENNY SHOTS Nov02 Sep13 Aug17 Aug01 Jul13 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 5.00 14% 6.10    
7  CAT'S RHYTHM Nov01 Oct06 Aug21 Jul17 Jun15 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 10.00    
8  POWER BANKER Nov02 Jul17 May26 May11 Apr11 (cline robert)ROSARIO L 124 8.00    
9  JETTIN PEGASUS Nov01 Oct06 Sep26 Sep13 Aug21 (suarez javie)HALDAR J 124 10.00    
 
MVR-8   11/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OHIO STRONG Oct30 Oct12 Sep11 Feb01 Dec19 (ibarra marco)GONZALEZ A 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LITTLE TOY GUNS Oct24 Sep13 Aug30 Jul25 Jul04 (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 124 12.00    
3  BUCKEYE SKY Oct12 Sep26 Dec30 Oct29 Aug25 (maker micha)PETERSON FERRIN 122 2.50 49% 1.00    
4  SWING STATE Oct12 Sep19 Aug31 Aug14 Jul31 (jackso)BATISTA ALBERTO 122 5.00 ★    
5  SPECIALIZED Oct30 Sep27 Aug31 Aug09 Jul24 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 4.00 22% 3.60    
6  COLOR BEARER Oct24 Oct02 Sep13 Aug30 Aug08 (skerrett jeffrey)RIVERA R 124 6.00    
7  LEROYISALAGNIAPPE Oct30 Sep30 Aug01 Jun02 Nov17 (tumblin a)CORREA L 124 20.00    
8  VEGAS PLAYER Sep27 Sep12 Aug24 Aug11 Jul26 (poole m)BRACHO A 122 20.00    
9  SOMEKINDAFUHRY Jul28 Jun21       (cline r)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  PALACE TEMPTATION Nov01 Sep30 Sep21 Sep09 Aug09 (faulkner rodn)CEDILLO MAURO 122 20.00    
11  TIER ONE Oct25 Oct10 Sep27 Aug23 Jul27 (fletcher )HERNANDEZ H 124 8.00    
12  DASH OF FIRE Nov01 Oct04 Sep14 Sep01 Aug18 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 124 20.00    
 
MVR-9   11/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 F PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POINTOF ATTRACTION         (fadlovich mega)DIAZ I 122 8.00 18% 4.50    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of PRINCESS ADELYN by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  MY GIRL KEW         (maker micha)PETERSON FERRIN 122 1.40 35% 1.90    
  (by MO TOWN out of MISS KEW by CATIENUS)
3  RIVERS RUN RED Oct28 Oct10       (szczepans)HERNANDEZ H 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RIVERS RUN DEEP out of PERFECTON PRINCESS by ECTON PARK)
4  DERBY DAY KISS Oct30         (cline ro)FERNANDEZ R 122 6.00    
  (by KLIMT out of DERBY DAY STORM by HABAYEB)
5  MISS SPRINGSTEEN Oct30 Sep25 Aug12 Aug01 Jun29 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 122 4.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of MELANIE MAY by ANIMAL KINGDOM)
6  OFFICIALLY YOURS         (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 3.00 24% 3.20    
  (by TAPITURE out of OFFICIALLY by OFFICER)
7  MAC'S CAILIN Oct10         (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 122 20.00    
  (by ITSMYLUCKYDAY out of SHEFLEW by FLATTER)
8  SHAMANS IMAGE Sep27 Sep13       (barker )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 20.00    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of LADY MONAVI by MONDAVI)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.