Handicappers' Racing Form

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Ellis Park
Sunday - July 02, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (1/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-2   Win (11/3/5/12/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-3   Win (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00
ELP-4   Win (8/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-5   Win (1/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-6   Win (10/3/11/8/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-7   Win (6/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-8   Win (11/6/10/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-9   Win (1/9/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-10   Win (11/6/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ELP-1   07/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOAX (IRE) Apr28 Mar12 Feb23 Jan26 Dec08 (forster t)LANERIE J 118 6.00 69% 0.50    
FAST GAL Jun11 May18 May02 Jan25 Jan05 (porter michael)COURT K 118 15.00    
GOLDBLOODED May20 Jan20 Dec31 Nov16 Oct04 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
COEXIST Jun11 May27 May12 Apr19 Aug14 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EMPIRE OF MY OWN Jun11 Apr08 Mar02 Aug26 Aug14 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.00    
SCR  YOU'RE AVOIDING ME May20 Mar16 Feb23 Dec30 Nov11 (tomlinson m)HERNANDEZ J 123 15.00    
COMEDY ACT Jun15 May21 Apr30 Mar16 Feb18 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 2.50    
SCR  SPARKLE OF HOPE Jun11 Sep23 Jul03 Jun08 May30 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 2.00    
 
ELP-2   07/02/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MOBSTER GUN Jun02 May13 Apr23 May12 Apr15 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 12.00    
TRIDENT HIT May25 Feb25 Jan21 Feb19 Jan28 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
HE'S GOT THIS May26 Apr23 Feb26 Feb03 Dec22 (rankin michae)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 5.00 9% 10.00    
WHAT A COUNTRY May26 Mar31 Mar03 Feb05 Nov16 (shirer matt)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
ZOOMER May18 Apr22 Mar26 Mar04 Jan27 (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 118 4.50 5% 17.80    
SCR  JEDREK Jun02 Apr30 Mar31 Mar03 Feb11 (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
DIGITAL Jun04 May13 Mar26 Feb18 Jan15 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
COOL RAGS Jun01 Apr27 Mar30 Mar11 Feb22 (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00    
PIPES AND DRUMS Jun04 May06 Mar24 Feb25 Jan25 (stall albe)SANTANA JR 118 6.00    
10  TAPAGE Jun18 May13 Mar04 Jan25 Dec27 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
11  BEAR OAK May27 Apr23 Mar30 Mar10 Feb09 (bahena ismael)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00 61% 0.60    
12  SHADRACK Jan20 Dec17 Oct27 Sep25 Jul30 (caramori caio)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-3   07/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Debutante Purse ($225K) 2 F PT- 1:43
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HIBERNACLE Apr12         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50    
SCR  GEORGE'S HONEY May19         (casse mark)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 10.00    
V V'S DREAM May19         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 1.40 42% 1.40    
BRIGHTWORK Apr26         (ortiz alexande)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00    
CITY GHOST May30         (johnson b)GRAHAM J 120 6.00    
EASY RED May27         (o'neill dou)TORRES A 120 10.00 33% 2.00    
 
ELP-4   07/02/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EASY TIME May25 Apr15 Jan01 Oct21 Jun12 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
BULLSEYE BUN Jun11 May05 Apr15 Mar16 Feb22 (green troy)BEJARANO R 121 15.00    
SCR  WHISPER NOT (GB) May25 May05 Apr02 Aug04 Jun12 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00    
NAUTILUS (BRZ) Jul01 May24 May10 Apr03 Mar13 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 20.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  TOMMY BEE May11 Aug06 Jul02 May18 Apr29 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00    
SCR  POINT ME BY May05 Apr13 Nov18 Oct09 Sep05 (kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 121 6.00    
COMMON BOND Apr15 Mar11 Feb04 Jan07 Dec11 (mott riley)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
BURNING BRIGHT May05 Feb12 Nov24 Oct20 Oct01 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 58% 0.70    
UNINVITED GUEST May11 Apr23 Feb11 Jan15 Nov24 (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 121 20.00    
SCR  BAKWENA Apr23 Mar11 Jan20 Oct26 Oct05 (miller darr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
SCR  HENLEY'S JOY May19 Apr07 Mar04 Jan28 Jan04 (casse mark)TORRES A 121 10.00    
SCR  STOLEN BASE May19 Dec26 Nov27 Oct29 Aug05 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00    
SCR  ALEJANDRO Jun11 Apr07 Feb18 Dec11 Nov02 (asmussen st)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00    
SCR  MAHAAMEL (IRE) Jun11 May19 Feb24 Feb11 Jan08 (londono ge)SANTANA JR 121 8.00    
SCR  GALLANT GUY May25 Apr26 Mar23 Jan14 Dec17 (gonzalez )DE CRUZ 125 10.00    
SCR  KENTUCKY GHOST Jun03 May04 Apr07 Feb04 Dec31 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 6.00    
 
ELP-5   07/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Bashford Manor Purse ($225K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WILSON Q May18         (o'neill doug)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 2.00 35% 1.90    
UNIFIED POINT Jun04         (ortiz al)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 10.00    
GO OTTO GO May25         (asmussen steve)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.50    
CALL ME ANDY Jun01         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.50 31% 2.30    
THE WINE STEWARD May28         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 13% 7.00    
SCR  LOU'S LEGACY Jun01 May04 Apr13     (andrade hug)CORREA L 118 20.00    
MAGICAL MARK May11         (broberg kar)TORRES A 120 5.00    
 
ELP-6   07/02/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MO FIGHT         (casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
BILLY JACK Jun04 Apr22 Mar25     (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 4.00    
CARCANO Dec24 Nov19 Oct21 Sep24   (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 27% 2.70    
FIRST PLAYER         (howard j)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
HONOR GOLD         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
ATTACHE Mar24         (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
ARRO SMASH         (bauer a)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00    
PASS LINE Jun15         (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
GOOD NEWS ROCKET Sep03 Aug20       (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
10  MR MCGREGOR Jun02 Apr14 Mar18 Aug13   (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 2.00 35% 1.90    
11  FOREVER COOL Jun04 May03 Apr14 Mar11   (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00 15% 5.70    
 
ELP-7   07/02/2023 5280ft TURF RC11 YIELDING Anchorage Overnight Purse ($175K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SWEET DANI GIRL Jun04 May05 Mar26 Mar04 Jan14 (vaccarezza )TORRES A 120 3.00    
SCR  PRINCESS THEOREM May20 Apr01 Mar04 Feb08 Dec31 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
FAST AS FLIGHT May21 Apr21 Mar04 Jan29 Dec02 (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 27% 2.70    
SCR  KATE'S KINGDOM Jun04 Mar25 Feb25 Jan14 Dec11 (walden william)GILLIGAN JACK 118 12.00    
CONTEMPORARY ART May07 Mar26 Aug07 Jun17 May01 (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
WHITE FROST Jun04 Apr15 Mar04 Jan26   (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 1.60 50% 1.00    
NAPA CANDY Jun03 Apr15 Nov27 Oct15 Aug27 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
LADY HIDEAWAY Jun04 Apr16 Sep13 Aug11 Jun22 (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-8   07/02/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Maxfield Overnight Purse ($175K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RYVIT May20 Apr29 Apr14 Mar25 Feb18 (asmussen st)TORRES A 120 6.00 9% 9.80    
SCR  NEW YORK THUNDER Apr30 Dec30 Nov27     (delgado jo)SANTANA JR 120 4.50    
SCR  DETERMINEDLY Jun04 Apr07 Feb18 Jan21 Dec26 (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
SCR  NAVY MAN May06 Apr08 Jan22 Jan02 Nov13 (mccarthy mich)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 15.00    
DAMON'S MOUND Jun04 May06 Apr16 Sep17 Aug13 (lovell michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 8.00    
MULLIKIN May27 Apr08 Feb18     (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 20% 4.10    
GUNFLASH May29 May06 Apr16 Mar26 Feb04 (broberg karl)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
FROSTED DEPARTURE May20 May06 Feb25 Jan28 Dec31 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
SCR  TOP RECRUIT Jun04 May20 Nov26 Oct30 Oct01 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 120 20.00    
10  TUMBARUMBA Jun04 Apr23 Mar11 Feb11 Dec10 (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 14% 6.40    
11  SQUIRE CREEK May12 Apr08 Mar02     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 37% 1.70    
 
ELP-9   07/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Hanshin Purse ($275K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:55
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ZOZOS May06 Mar02 Jan21 Dec17 May07 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 1.80 43% 1.30    
STRAVA Jun03 May04 Dec26 Nov27 Oct14 (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
WARRIOR JOHNY Jun04 Nov17 Sep24 Aug18 Jul04 (bauer philip )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 6.00    
SCR  TARTUFO Jun04 May25 Mar30 Feb05 Jan07 (vaccarezza carlo)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
WAR CAMPAIGN May25 Apr20 Mar16 Nov19 Oct22 (sims a)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
SEIZE THE NIGHT Jun11 Apr22 Apr07 Mar16 Jan14 (lukas way)TORRES A 118 8.00    
COLLABORATE Jun09 May04 Apr01 Mar16 Mar04 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  THREE TECHNIQUE Jul01 May27 May06 Apr08 Nov05 (cook b)BEJARANO R 118 4.50    
SANTIN Jun03 May06 Mar25 Nov26 Oct08 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 26% 2.90    
 
ELP-10   07/02/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  KOOPS Sep22         (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
BRAMITO         (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 5.00 9% 9.60    
SCR  ROUNDBALL ROCK         (caramori ca)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
EARL OF DASSEL May14 Apr14 Mar18 Feb18 Jan21 (pessin l)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
SMOKE WAGON May21         (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
EIRIK RIDGE Jun02 May06       (stall m)LANERIE J 119 4.00 16% 5.30    
SCR  TOWN BARBER         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
CHIRON Jun04 May14 Apr01 Mar17 Oct02 (bush s)LAGUNES GABRIEL 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
PILOTE COMETE May27 Apr28       (colebrook ben)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 15.00    
SCR  CUSP May27         (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
11  WILD THINKER May21 Apr16 Mar02     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.50 50% 1.00    
12  CURLIN'S GESTURE         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.