Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - April 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/6/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/9)-(5/6/9/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/9)-(5/6/9/1/7)-(5/6/9/1/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/6/9)-(8/4/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/6/9)-(8/4/7/1)-(5/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (8/4/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/7/1)-(8/4/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/7/1)-(8/4/7/1)-(8/4/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/7/1)-(5/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (8/4/7/1)-(5/6)-(6/5/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/6)-(5/6/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5/6)-(5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (5/6)-(6/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/6)-(6/5/3)-(7/4/5/1/9) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/3)-(6/5/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/5/3)-(6/5/3/1)-(6/5/3/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/5/3)-(7/4/5/1/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/5/3)-(7/4/5/1/9)-(1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/4/5/1/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/4/5/1/9)-(7/4/5/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/4/5/1/9)-(7/4/5/1/9)-(7/4/5/1/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/4/5/1/9)-(1) 5 $1.00 $5.00 
    PK3 (7/4/5/1/9)-(1)-(3/5/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-6   WIN (1) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (1)-(1/2/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI (1)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
    DD (1)-(3/5/7) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (1)-(3/5/7)-(7/1/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/7)-(3/5/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/5/7)-(3/5/7/4)-(3/5/7/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/5/7)-(7/1/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/7)-(7/1/9/8)-(1/6/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-8   WIN (7/1/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/9/8)-(7/1/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/9/8)-(7/1/9/8)-(7/1/9/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/9/8)-(1/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/1/9/8)-(1/6/5)-(8/13) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-9   WIN (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/5)-(1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/6/5)-(8/13) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
CD-10   WIN (8/13) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/13)-(8/13/9/10/12) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (8/13)-(8/13/9/10/12)-(8/13/9/10/12) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   04/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAIL ALLEN Apr22 Mar10 Feb04 Jan06   (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 ★    
2  TEXAS TED Apr14 Mar25 Feb24 Jan06   (barkley ja)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.50    
3  MILITARY CODE (GB) Apr06         (vaccarezza ca)CANNON DECLAN 125 8.00    
4  INVASIVE Apr16 Mar17 Feb15 Jan19 Dec11 (kendall elise)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
5  MY FAVORITE UNCLE Mar11 Feb25 Feb10 Feb01 Nov23 (capps a)BEJARANO R 125 5.00 63% 0.60    
6  FANEUIL HALL Apr01 Mar11 Feb18 Feb02 Jan07 (gazzier)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 125 5.00 11% 8.40    
7  BLUEGRASS LUTE Apr22 Mar23 Feb10 Dec10 Nov13 (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 3.00 ★    
SCR  SMALL SAILOR Apr19 Dec09 Nov11 Oct13 Sep26 (garcia ge)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
9  MR. YASUDA Jan26 Jan12 Nov09     (maker micha)PETERSON FERRIN 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  SPUNS SON Dec29 Nov30 Nov19 Oct12 Sep05 (taylor brent)GILLIGAN JACK 125 20.00    
 
CD-2   04/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT Mar18 Feb17 Feb02 Jan18 Dec08 (esquivel jesus)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 11% 8.20    
2  MALIBU TIME Mar18 Feb17 Jan27 Jan07 Dec29 (romans dale)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.50    
3  KEEN ON YOU Apr21 Mar04 Feb17 Feb03 Jan12 (cundiff way)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00    
4  ON A SPREE Mar24 Mar11 Feb09 Jan01 Dec22 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 18% 4.60    
5  ONE LAST HAND Apr20 Mar10 Feb11 Jan28 Jan07 (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 118 12.00    
6  GORMLEYS GOT GAME Feb21 Jan26 Jan12 Dec18 Nov17 (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 118 10.00    
7  PICASSO Apr16 Jan22 Dec29 Jun24 May20 (walden w)RODRIGUEZ A 113 3.50 17% 4.90    
8  COVE BLUE Mar25 May05 Feb24 Jan27 Jan07 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 2.00 28% 2.60    
 
CD-3   04/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LUCKY SMILE Apr22 Mar11 Sep15     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 125 10.00 ★    
2  SECRET EDGE Aug27 Aug12       (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 125 20.00    
3  CHOWMEIN Apr16 Mar15 Feb22 Feb03 Jan20 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 ★    
SCR  NARA Mar11 Feb01 Feb19     (howard d)MCKEE J 125 3.00 50% 1.00    
5  UNCAPTURED DREAM Apr19 Mar31 Mar15 Feb26 Mar26 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 125 3.50 17% 5.00    
6  SCOTCH NO ROCKS Feb17 Feb04 Dec30 Dec08 Nov19 (roberson )HERNANDEZ J 125 10.00 9% 9.60    
7  STAYINYOURLANE Mar24         (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
8  SECRET POCKET Mar24 Feb01 Nov19     (romans dal)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
9  SPINSTRAWINTO GOLD Mar15 Feb20 Jan29 Jan13   (scherer marianne)RIQUELME J 125 15.00    
10  MIDWAY MIRACLE Apr16 Feb09 Jan26 Jan12 Dec30 (lucas wayne)AYALA ISAIAS 125 15.00    
 
CD-4   04/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WRITEITONTHEICE Apr13 Mar04 Feb24 Jan28 Jan20 (fernandez edward)MCKEE J 124 5.00 ★    
2  RIGHT OF RUSH Feb11 Dec28 Dec17 Nov27 Nov02 (brenklin)RODRIGUEZ A 119 5.00    
3  RONITHELIMODRIVER Mar10 Feb17 Jan27 Jan06 Jul07 (leonard georg)CANNON DECLAN 124 12.00 16% 5.20    
4  SPRINKLEHEAD Apr01 Mar04 Feb24 Jan28 Jan06 (miller jerome)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.00    
5  NORDIC LIGHT Apr13 Mar15 Feb11 Jan05 Dec09 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 2.50 23% 3.40    
6  LEVY Mar09 Sep10 Aug19 Jul10 May11 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 124 3.50 37% 1.70    
7  MONEY PIT Feb11 Jan21 Jan06 Nov27 Oct05 (hill f)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 6.00    
 
CD-5   04/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUDWIG May07 Apr02 Feb26     (bauer phi)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MASTERY out of TEXAS GEM by TIZNOW)
2  ZED Apr16 Oct23 Sep24 Sep11   (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of SHANE'S GIRLFRIEND by ADIOS CHARLIE)
3  SATURDAY LONG LEGS         (frazier matt)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
  (by DADDY LONG LEGS out of CRYING ON SATURDAY by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
4  MAPPER Mar25         (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 21% 3.70    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of CLICK YOUR HEELS by PULPIT)
5  SHADY DAREDEVIL         (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 4.00 16% 5.10    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of SHADY VIOLENCE by VIOLENCE)
6  TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CARRINGTON EVENT by STREET BOSS)
7  SIDEKICK Aug28 Jul29 Jul08 Jun02   (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.50 32% 2.10    
  (by HONOR CODE out of REUNITED by DIXIE UNION)
8  FLYING HOUDINI         (mardif ja)CORREA L 124 20.00    
  (by MARK VALESKI out of MEMORIES PREVAIL by CREATIVE CAUSE)
9  TESTIMONY TIME         (brumley willia)ELLIOTT JANE 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SILVEREST by CONGRATS)
10  STIRDATPOT Jun19         (londono genev)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
  (by TRINNIBERG out of CHALLENGE ACCEPTED by VIBANK)
 
CD-6   04/29/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHASING THE CROWN Feb25 Jan28 May15 Apr16 Feb26 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 1.40 52% 0.90    
2  MAASAI WARRIOR Mar02 Jan22 Jan01 Dec09 Nov13 (leonard georg)MORALES EDGAR 125 2.00 ★    
3  MODERN SCIENCE (IRE) Mar30 Feb03 Dec03 Aug25 Jul13 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 125 4.50 ★    
4  GO BALI GO Mar30 Mar10 Feb11 Dec28 Oct06 (nance jonathan)BEJARANO R 125 10.00    
5  UNLEASH THE POWER Mar02 Feb04 Oct27 Sep01 Jul23 (stall m)LANERIE J 125 8.00    
6  MINISTER FOR MAGIC Aug27 Aug03       (cibelli jane)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
7  NICHOLAS JONES Apr12 Mar25 Mar04 Feb08 Dec29 (miller jer)HERNANDEZ J 125 15.00    
SCR  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Oct22 Oct01 Aug24 Jul22 Jun03 (bauer philip )VELAZQUEZ R 125 2.00 ★    
SCR  GIANT GAME Apr01 Feb25 Jan13 Mar12 Feb05 (romans dal)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 1.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  REDEEMER Oct12 Aug28 Jul30     (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
 
CD-7   04/29/2023 6600ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S MAGIC Mar26 Sep18       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 12.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of WILD SUMMER by WILD AGAIN)
2  MEDAGLIA FOREVER Mar25 Jan29 Nov26     (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of FOREVER UNBRIDLED by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
3  PEAK POPULARITY Mar26 Aug21       (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.60 36% 1.80    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of PERAZZI by THORN DANCE)
4  ABBREVIATION Apr07 Feb24 Jan13     (mott riley)VELAZQUEZ R 118 10.00 ★    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of NO ACRONYMS by MILWAUKEE BREW)
5  RAGGITY SAND Mar25 Jan21       (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 3.00 28% 2.60    
  (by UNION RAGS out of ISLAND SAND by TABASCO CAT)
6  ANGORA DEB Mar25         (stall m)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of PLAY BALLADO by SAINT BALLADO)
7  CORSINI Mar25 Feb18       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 15% 5.60    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MARIETTA by MACHIAVELLIAN)
 
CD-8   04/29/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOTA BENE Apr07 Mar02 Sep13 Jul24 Jul02 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 22% 3.50    
2  FROZEN SOLID Apr07 Feb15 Jan06 Mar13 Jan30 (lynch brian)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 10.00    
3  QUICK MUNNY Jan14 Dec17 Aug19 Jul16 May05 (hartman chr)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 8.00    
4  MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT Apr12 Mar24 Feb16 Jan19 Dec07 (cano juan )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 12.00    
5  AWESOME LAWSON Apr07 Mar09 Feb16 Jan25 Nov13 (vesty clark)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 30.00    
SCR  AWESOME TREAT Apr15 Mar17 Feb23 Jan28 Dec30 (wojczyns)RODRIGUEZ A 117 10.00 5% 18.00    
7  PARENTS PRIDE Mar26 Nov18 Oct28 Sep03 Aug14 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 40% 1.50    
8  MADRILENA (ARG) Mar16 Nov17 Sep13 Jul09   (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  ATLANTIC STRIKE Mar30 Mar04 Jan12 Oct02 Aug26 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 9% 10.20    
SCR  MERCY WARREN Feb25 Jan01 Nov27 Oct29 Jun26 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00    
 
CD-9   04/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Roxelana Overnight Purse ($175K) 4UP M/F PT-10:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRANK'S ROCKETTE Mar11 Dec31 Nov05 Aug26 Jul27 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 0.60 48% 1.10    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ROCKET TWENTYONE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
2  LAST LEAF Mar11 Jan28 Dec03 Oct22 Sep24 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MY MISS KALLIE by PADDY O'PRADO)
3  PRAISE AND HONOR Apr14 Feb24 Dec09 Oct19   (wong jonathan)ROCCO S 118 20.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of GOING TO KUKARO by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  MY DESTINY Mar24 Feb11 Jan06 Dec08 Sep24 (wilensky he)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00    
  (by MAJESTICPERFECTION out of NORTHERN DESTINY by CRAFTY PROSPECTOR)
5  PRETTY BIRDIE Mar31 Feb25 Dec17 Jul09 Jun12 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 11% 8.40    
  (by BIRD SONG out of BIRD SENSE by STREET SENSE)
6  COPPELIA Dec31 Nov13 Oct26 Aug07 Jul09 (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 16% 5.20    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of CRESPANO by MINESHAFT)
 
CD-10   04/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT-10:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DESERT HIGHWAY Apr01         (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 113 20.00    
SCR  NAVY CROSS Apr14 Mar25 Feb24     (engler jeff)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
3  NEIGHBOR Apr08 Mar18 Feb18     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50    
4  CAMBIASO Mar10 Jan08 Dec18 Dec11 Nov23 (garcia ge)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
5  TIZ TWENTY TWENTY Sep15         (mccarthy michael )SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
SCR  CODE OF KINGS Mar10 Feb12 Jan06 Nov13 Oct23 (glyshaw tim)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
7  PLENTY OF TIME Jan19 Nov23 Sep21     (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
8  KANSAS COMET Mar02 Feb11 May21 Apr16   (romans dal)CORRALES GERARDO 126 3.00 46% 1.20    
9  BOOSTER SHOT Mar09 Jan20 Nov23 Nov03   (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00 ★    
10  CRONUS Mar24 Jan13 May07 Mar25 Mar04 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 126 6.00 ★    
11  YES POINT Jan19 Jan05       (mckeever andre)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
12  T LAW         (beckman d )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00 ★    
13  SUCCEED Apr21 Mar24 Mar06 Feb05 Dec21 (cash l)BEJARANO R 126 3.50 31% 2.30    
SCR  SCHMEAR Oct23         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.