Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 23, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONTAUK DADDY Oct27 Oct15 Sep04 Aug22 Aug10 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.50 19% 4.20    
2  RETALIATED Oct20 Sep29 Sep18     (martinez kelli)MARTINEZ A 120 6.00    
3  GUARD Nov08 Oct06 Sep22 Jun07 May26 (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
4  HIGHER AUTHORITY Nov09 Oct07 Sep23 Aug30 Aug03 (vance d)COURT K 120 5.00    
5  ALFIE SOLOMONS Oct07 Aug11 Jun04 Apr14   (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 1.60 57% 0.70    
SCR  HAVE A PLAN Oct20 Sep24 Sep04 Aug13 Jul18 (martinez ke)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 5.00    
 
CD-2   11/23/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLENTY OF TIME Sep21         (drury thoma)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
2  INVASIVE         (kendall elise)AYALA ISAIAS 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  AUGUSTUS BLUE Oct18 Sep11 Aug13 Jul30   (kerrick la)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
4  GABE Oct30         (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
5  RIO MOON Sep22         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
SCR  ROUNDBALL ROCK         (car)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 10.00    
7  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Oct23 Sep25 Sep16     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  GRIMES Nov09 Oct14       (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 56% 0.80    
9  O GANGSTER Oct30 Oct19 Oct01 Aug28   (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
10  DAY TRADE Sep30         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 ★    
11  DON'T LET GO Sep30         (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00    
12  LET ME LOVE YOU Nov03 Sep28 Sep05 Aug10   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 21% 3.90    
13  CAMBIASO Nov09 Sep28 Sep22 Aug27 Jul24 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00    
SCR  INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER Nov06 Sep21 Sep03 Aug05 Jun26 (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
SCR  PACE Oct18 Oct05 Aug31 Aug06   (simms jr)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
 
CD-3   11/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALL GOWN Oct19 Aug20 Jul16 Jun22   (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 9% 9.80    
2  SAVE GRACE Oct19 Jul30       (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00    
3  ALSANAH Nov11 Oct29 Sep24 Aug26   (rone mike)FRANKLIN MALCOM 120 5.00    
4  DOMITIA LUCILLA Nov03 Oct13 Sep16 Aug06 Jul04 (simms j)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00    
5  BAYSHORE FOXES Oct29 Oct08       (van t)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.50 9% 10.60    
6  THE CLUB Aug19 Aug06 Jul17 Jun12 Apr21 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50    
7  DONYA KNOW IT Oct20 May26 Feb11     (mejia de)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 58% 0.70    
 
CD-4   11/23/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY FAVORITE UNCLE Nov10 Nov02 Oct10 Sep20 Aug31 (capps stev)CORRALES GERARDO 124 15.00 11% 8.20    
2  TAP THE CANDY Oct08 Aug27 Aug05 Jun24 Jun05 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 12.00 8% 12.00    
3  ALFIO Oct26 Sep28 Sep20 May07 Apr20 (thornbury jeff)MCKEE J 121 20.00    
4  NIMRODS Oct22         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 10.00    
5  FROSTED DIAMOND Sep16 Jul03 Jun10 May22 Apr23 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 37% 1.70    
6  MADISON LUVS DUKE Nov02 May30 May03 Mar26   (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50 20% 4.00    
7  BOLD MEDICATION Nov02 Oct09 Aug21 Jul16 Jun18 (compton greg)COURT K 121 20.00    
8  LIAM THE BRAVE Nov02 Oct12 Sep22 Sep03   (ewing michael)CANNON DECLAN 121 6.00    
9  CLOSE KNIT Jun03 Apr29 Feb16 Jan07   (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  VALE Oct16 Sep29 Aug13 Jul15   (forster t)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
11  GUIDED ARROW Oct12 Aug24 Jun29     (mckeever an)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 5.00    
12  MINT Nov02 Oct16 Sep18 Sep01   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50    
SCR  UNCLE BERLEY Sep15 Aug23 Aug05 Jul16 Jun18 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 121 5.00    
SCR  SEVEN AND SEVEN Nov02         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 8.00    
 
CD-5   11/23/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEST PILOT Nov10 Oct14 Sep17 Aug17 Aug03 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 11% 7.70    
2  TUANIS Oct26 Sep28 Aug27 Aug03 Jun09 (glyshaw tim)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 13% 7.00    
3  KING'S OVATION Apr20 Mar05       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00    
4  CAN'T HUSH THIS Oct27 Oct12 Sep11 Sep01 Jul24 (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 38% 1.60    
5  LEBLON Oct23 Oct02 Sep01 Aug06 Jul01 (maker michae)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00    
6  CARMICHAEL Oct27 Aug16 Jun19 May21 Feb11 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 2.50    
7  BOURBON THUNDER Nov09 Jul02 May30     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 4.00    
 
CD-6   11/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BET HE'S READY Oct22 Mar16 Feb17 Jan17   (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 34% 1.90    
2  FAR FROM FINAL Oct22 Sep14       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.00 24% 3.20    
3  INSOLITO Oct22 Sep15 Jan29     (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00 11% 8.20    
4  CYCLONE Nov06 Jul03 Jun05 Apr29 Mar16 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 11% 7.80    
5  ROCK WITH YOU Aug31 Aug17       (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 12.00    
6  STAND FOR FREEDOM Oct22 Sep03 Aug05 Jul03 Jun08 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 122 4.00    
7  BOURBON CREED         (wilkes i)SANTANA JR 122 12.00    
8  DOG RED         (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BABY GOT BACKSPIN Oct28 Sep25 Aug13 Jul01   (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.00 57% 0.80    
2  EXHIBIT HALL         (lobo h)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
3  EFFORTLESSLYELGANT         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
4  MALIBU TOAST Oct27 Sep30       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 13% 6.50    
5  NEUTRALIZE         (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  VARSITY BLONDE         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
7  MISS J D         (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
8  TANGO ZULU         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
9  MALLY'S MONSOON Jul22         (kenneally ed)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00 7% 13.60    
10  IN COLOR         (caramori caio)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
11  MIGHTY MADISON Oct20 Sep25       (bauer philip )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
12  HIGH CLASS Oct30 Sep25 Jul31     (asmussen steven)LANERIE J 119 3.50 ★    
SCR  SURE CAN Oct30         (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00    
SCR  BOARDWALK QUEEN Oct30 Sep25       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
SCR  D'ORO STREET         (dio)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 12.00    
SCR  RUTHLESS RUA Oct22         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
 
CD-8   11/23/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PAYNE Oct20 Sep03 Jul13 May30 Apr16 (caramori cai)GEROUX FLORENT 121 6.00    
2  SUMMER SPLASH Nov16 Oct15 Sep17 Aug13   (cano juan )MURRILL MITCHELL 121 4.00 23% 3.40    
SCR  SONNEMAN Sep28 Sep01 Jul16 Jun16 Apr30 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50    
4  EMERALD EXPRESS Nov02 Oct15 Sep18 Jul24 Jun08 (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 10.00 20% 4.00    
5  TONAL IMPACT Sep28 Sep18 Aug10 Jul15 May29 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00    
6  RUNWAY MAGIC Oct23 Oct01 Jun17 Apr16   (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00    
SCR  RIVER REDEMPTION Oct05 Aug23 Jul19 Jun23 May31 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00    
8  RODERICK Sep30 Aug24 Jul28 Jul04 Jun17 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 121 2.50 23% 3.40    
 
CD-9   11/23/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAYAKIN Nov02 Sep28 Sep08 Jul24 Jun19 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 ★    
SCR  KOUFAX Oct02 Aug22 Jul15 Jun02 May07 (foley greg)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 10.00    
3  HE'SMYHONEYBADGER Sep23         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00 27% 2.70    
4  VERB Sep25 Aug16 Jul03 Jun12 May20 (cook b)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  SURFER DUDE Nov12 Oct14 Jul31 Jun03 May07 (stewart dallas)LANERIE J 120 12.00    
6  COASTAL DEFENSE         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 4.50 5% 19.00    
7  EMBRACE (IRE) Oct08 Sep22 Sep06 Aug07 Jun19 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J null      
8  BROKEN RIB Oct17 Sep16 Aug04 Mar19 Feb17 (mejia de)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00    
9  MARSALIS Nov04 Sep22 Mar26 Feb19   (asmussen)SANTANA JR 120 2.50 46% 1.20    
10  GALLANT GUY Oct23 May30 Apr09 Mar04 Jan16 (gonzalez )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 30.00    
 
CD-10   11/23/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FUJIN         (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 119 10.00    
2  SLAMMING IT         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
SCR  SHORTLY Nov11         (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
4  TIME THE MARKET Oct23         (barkley jason)SAEZ LUIS 119 20.00    
5  HAROLD'S CLOUD Oct23         (stidham m)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 4.00 42% 1.40    
6  GIROOVIN Nov03 Oct09 Sep23     (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 ★    
7  BOOSTER SHOT Nov03         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00    
8  HUNTER'S DRIVE Nov16 Oct30 Sep03 Aug19   (desormeaux j )GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  OWN THE FIELD Aug31         (mejia de)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  SCHOOLMASTER (GER) Oct21         (manning john )CANUTO THIAGO 119 50.00    
11  MOGUL CRACK Oct13 Sep23       (gutierrez )HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.