Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Wednesday - November 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/3)-(3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(3/5/1)-(1/8/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
MVR-2   WIN (3/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/1)-(3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/1)-(1/8/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/1)-(1/8/5)-(5/4/3) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
MVR-3   WIN (1/8/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/8/5)-(1/8/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/8/5)-(1/8/5)-(1/8/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/8/5)-(5/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/8/5)-(5/4/3)-(7/9/4/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-4   WIN (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/3)-(5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/3)-(7/9/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/3)-(7/9/4/1)-(8/6/2/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-5   WIN (7/9/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/9/4/1)-(7/9/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/9/4/1)-(7/9/4/1)-(7/9/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/9/4/1)-(8/6/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/9/4/1)-(8/6/2/4)-(6/9/3/5) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
MVR-6   WIN (8/6/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/2/4)-(8/6/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/2/4)-(8/6/2/4)-(8/6/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/2/4)-(6/9/3/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/6/2/4)-(6/9/3/5)-(1/3/10/11) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
MVR-7   WIN (6/9/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/3/5)-(6/9/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/3/5)-(6/9/3/5)-(6/9/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/9/3/5)-(1/3/10/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
MVR-8   WIN (1/3/10/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/10/11)-(1/3/10/2/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/3/10/11)-(1/3/10/2/11)-(1/3/10/2/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  VAMONOS PIACENTE Aug29 Aug09 Jul19 Jul05 Jun19 (casalinova tin)GONZALEZ A 124 3.00    
  (by MOBIL out of PYRITE ADIOS by ADIOS CHARLIE)
SCR  POLLY PRISSY PANTS Oct04 Sep14 Aug29 Aug09 Jul05 (rone mike)RIVERA R 124 1.80    
  (by VERTIFORMER out of LADY YELLOW TAIL by ARCH)
3  GEMSHINE         (urieta johann)BRACHO A 124 6.00 28% 2.60    
  (by SNAG out of STRIKING JEWEL by SAVIN EYES)
4  MOST ADORABLE Nov07 Oct21 Oct04 Aug30 Jul25 (yo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 2.50 44% 1.30    
  (by KENNEDY out of SWEET JODY by VALUE PLUS)
5  MI CANCION Nov07 Oct04 Sep21 Feb20 Dec27 (erdel john)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 15.00    
  (by ITSTHESAMEOLDSONG out of PINOT NOIR by COWBOY CAL)
6  MOTOWN HARBOR Oct21 Sep06 Aug30 Jan04 Dec21 (cline ro)FERNANDEZ R 126 15.00    
  (by MOBIL out of SEAMAN HARBOR by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
7  BOLD NICKY Oct21 Oct04 Jun19 May31 May11 (maddox rachael)PAUCAR E 126 10.00    
  (by BOLD RED out of WEST POINT STAR by STAR DABBLER)
 
MVR-2   11/22/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 2 ALL PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL BAMBINO Oct23 Oct03 Sep05     (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 122 5.00 11% 8.00    
2  UNTROUBLED Oct17 Sep13 Aug18 Jun06 May15 (caramori eduardo)AVILES YAN 120 2.00    
3  LUCKY COUGAR Oct14 Sep27 Sep05     (dacosta jason)HOUGHTON D 117 4.00 53% 0.90    
4  ROYALLY FLUSHED Nov07 Oct24 Oct06 Sep23 Sep05 (short travis )BRACHO A 122 8.00    
5  POKER PARTNER Oct23 Sep23 Aug21 Jul18   (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 120 2.50 12% 7.20    
6  ONE WAY FARRIOR Nov09 Oct21 Sep29 Sep14 Sep02 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 122 6.00    
 
MVR-3   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOLLYS SUPER STAR Sep19 Aug30 Aug09     (radosevich justi)RIVERA R 126 2.50 40% 1.50    
  (by GRITTANI out of SPANISH CANDY by SPANIARD)
2  WINDY VALLEY Oct23 Oct05 Sep19 Aug31 Aug12 (londono odin )CEDILLO MAURO 126 3.50    
  (by CALLIDE VALLEY out of ODESSA WIND by U S RANGER)
3  EXTRA CRAFTY Aug30 Aug09 Jul13 Jun20 Jun01 (guciardo robert)VELEZ J 126 15.00    
  (by PALACE out of CRAFTY TIGRESS by HOLD THAT TIGER)
4  SMARTASSET Oct23 Sep19       (cline r)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 126 5.00    
  (by SMARTY JONES out of SOME GIVEN LEGEND by POINT GIVEN)
5  J. P INDY Oct23 Oct05 Aug31 Aug12   (cline c)DIAZ I 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of JANNES PAUL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  SHE'S A SOLDIER Aug03 Jul05       (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 124 10.00    
  (by GREEK SUN out of GUMBOOTS by STORM BOOT)
7  STORMINATOR Oct23 Oct06       (tumblin andre)BARBARAN ERIK 126 12.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of CELESTE by GOLDEN SOUVENIR)
8  DOMINUS O'S ME Oct23 Oct05 Aug12 Jul25 Jul06 (urieta johanna)FELICIANO R 124 3.00 30% 2.30    
  (by DOMINUS out of NEIGH O ME by HALF OURS)
 
MVR-4   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BROADWAY JONES Nov06 Oct21 Sep14 Jul28 Jul08 (hurley mary )HALDAR J 126 3.00    
SCR  PAT DADDY Nov15 Oct31 Oct13 Sep20 Aug31 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 126 2.50    
3  TWICE AS SMART Oct31 Sep12 Aug22 Jul31 Jul03 (zielinski richard)PAUCAR E 126 5.00 5% 19.00    
4  MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE Oct24 Aug17 Jul27 Jul12 Jun07 (johnson l)FELICIANO R 126 3.50 36% 1.80    
5  T MONEY Aug22 Jul11 Jun07 Dec27 Dec14 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 126 6.00 38% 1.70    
6  HROTHGAR Nov05 Oct09 Oct03 Sep25 Sep02 (morzan javi)OLIVEROS CHARLE 126 10.00    
7  UHAVETOBEKITTENME Nov12 Oct06 Sep27 Sep14 Aug17 (casalinova tin)GONZALEZ A 126 8.00    
 
MVR-5   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAYITO Oct17 Oct02 Sep23 Sep12 Sep04 (buttig)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 4.50 8% 11.90    
2  UPTOWN GUY Nov02 Oct24 Oct05 Apr27 Apr04 (casalinova tin)HOUGHTON D 126 6.00    
3  HINK'S PALADIN Nov08 Oct11 Sep30 Sep18 May27 (johnston rebecc)MOJICA JR 124 20.00    
4  STRASBOURG Sep24 Sep10 Aug28 Aug13 Jul04 (bernardini ja)BARBARAN ERIK 124 8.00 16% 5.30    
5  STRIKE A BEAT Nov08 May20 May01 Mar27 Mar08 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 124 8.00    
6  FRANK N DUCKY Sep12 Jul11 Jun13 May15 May06 (sondej amy)TOLEDO S 124 15.00    
7  RIKIO Sep21 Aug31 Aug15 Jun17 Feb23 (cline ro)FERNANDEZ R 124 3.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  NICHOLAS JAMES Nov08 Jul19 Jun27 Jun06 May20 (zielinski r)LAGUNES GABRIEL 124 10.00    
9  INSIDE STUNT Nov12 Oct22 Oct07 Aug20 Jul29 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 124 2.50 24% 3.20    
 
MVR-6   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($36.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY FORTUNE Nov02 Sep18 Jun26 Mar15 Feb13 (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 6.00    
2  IN TROUBLED WATERS Oct21 Oct06 Sep14 Aug24 Aug10 (faulkn)BATISTA ALBERTO 122 5.00 19% 4.20    
3  I'M LEGIT Nov08 Oct21 Oct06 Sep16 Aug17 (melancon pa)BRACHO AUGUSTIN 124 8.00    
4  FACTISIMFLASHY Oct21 Aug26 Jul22 Jun30 Jun17 (antonuik je)LAGUNES GABRIEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  MAYBE FRANKY Nov08 Oct23 Sep28 Aug29 Aug09 (mo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 12.00    
6  SHAKEURSKINNYLEGS Nov08 Oct25 Oct10 Sep28 May25 (skerrett jeffr)HOUGHTON D 124 2.50 21% 3.90    
7  MISS ELLIE Oct23 Jun26 Jun13 Jun05 May06 (castill)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 15.00    
8  ANCHORWOMAN Oct21 Sep19 Jul17 Jun27 Jun02 (hamm timothy)DIAZ I 122 2.00 38% 1.60    
 
MVR-7   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EAGLE NEST Oct24         (zielinski r)LAGUNES GABRIEL 124 2.00 48% 1.10    
2  ORLEANS STORM Nov08 Oct24 Sep27 Sep12 Aug22 (tumblin an)COLINA ALEJANDRO 124 15.00    
3  CHECK THE FACTS Oct24 Oct02 Sep07 Aug19   (kerr n)MOJICA JR 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  JIM'S RIVER RUNNER Nov08 Oct24 Oct06 Sep14 Sep01 (ramos )BATISTA ALBERTO 122 6.00    
5  LITTLE RONS ROCKET Nov08 Oct24 Oct02 Sep18 Aug30 (radosevich ja)TOLEDO S 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  WAR ON THE RIVER Oct24 Oct02 Aug28 Aug08   (flores chri)OLIVEROS CHARLE 122 3.00 18% 4.70    
7  AGNELLO CITY Nov08 Oct24 Oct05 Aug22 Jul26 (skerrett jeffrey)AVILES YAN 124 15.00    
8  MUCH TIMES TWO Oct12 Feb27 Jan26 Jan12 Dec14 (fadlovich mega)DIAZ I 124 15.00    
9  ORVILLE B Oct24 Oct05 Sep14 Aug28 Jul05 (keiser debor)KEISER CHELSEY 122 4.00 7% 13.60    
10  PLAYING BALL Sep07 Aug30 Jul27 Jul13 Jul04 (zielinski ric)CEDILLO MAURO 124 20.00    
 
MVR-8   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARTSTEIN Oct24         (atala jose)TAPARA BRANDON 124 5.00 40% 1.50    
  (by SNAG out of CHAIN YANKER by DELTA MINER)
2  MY HOMBRE Oct24 Jul20 Jul05 Jun19 May25 (trehar)BATISTA ALBERTO 126 4.50 ★    
  (by GLOBAL POWER out of ORIENTAL BELLA by CAPE TOWN)
3  IPPOLITO'S WONDER Oct11 Jul05 Jun14 May25 May10 (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 4.00 26% 2.90    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of WHY WONDER by STEVIE WONDERBOY)
4  WHY KENNY WHY Nov08 Oct24 Oct05 Sep14 Aug28 (casalinova tin)GONZALEZ A 124 10.00    
  (by GLOBAL POWER out of WHY US by WHYWHYWHY)
5  RAISE YOU ONE Oct05 Aug28 Aug08 Jul20 Jul05 (doering ma)SMITH DIOGDINABI 126 20.00    
  (by MUCH THE BEST out of FRANCIE MAE by LAC OUIMET)
6  R CLIFFHANGER Oct24 Oct06 Sep29     (melancon pa)BRACHO AUGUSTIN 126 15.00    
  (by BIRDRUN out of STORMY MAY by BAD STORM COMIN')
7  RUNAWAY RUSSELL Mar13 Feb23 Feb08 Jan26 Jan09 (maddox rachae)CEDILLO MAURO 126 10.00    
  (by MUCH THE BEST out of RUN DON'T HIDE by RUN AWAY AND HIDE)
8  MY TICKET Nov08 Oct24 Oct05 Sep14 Aug08 (cline c)PAUCAR E 126 6.00    
  (by TIDAL VOLUME out of SWEET LOLINDA by MARQUETRY)
9  SOMETHING ON TAP Oct24 Oct05 Sep14 Aug22 Jul26 (murillo-rodri)TOLEDO S 124 10.00    
  (by TIDAL VOLUME out of SOMETHING NAUGHTY by INTO MISCHIEF)
10  NO MAS CERVEZA         (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 8.00 11% 8.40    
  (by VAQUERO out of HOLY HAREM by HOLY BULL)
11  FORMYBOYS Oct24 Oct05 Sep14     (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPIDOR out of NIPPY'S VENTURE by MAUK FOUR)
12  MARQUITOS M Oct24 Sep21 Aug28 Aug08 Jul20 (rettele rich)HALDAR J 124 15.00    
  (by WESTERN PRIDE out of MALI by BWANA CHARLIE)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.