Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Fort Erie
Tuesday - September 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-6   WIN (6/3/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00  7 $21.80 $13.80 173%
    EXA (6/3/2/7)-(6/3/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00  7-3 $47.40 $35.40 295%
FE-8   EXA (1/6/2)-(1/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00  6-2 $7.70 $1.70 28%
    TRI (1/6/2)-(1/6/2)-(1/6/2) 6 $0.20 $1.20  6-2-1 $4.58 $3.38 282%
FE-9   WIN (5/8/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00  5 $24.00 $16.00 200%
    EXA (5/8/2/4)-(5/8/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00  5-2 $61.00 $49.00 408%
    TRI (5/8/2/4)-(5/8/2/4)-(5/8/2/4) 24 $0.20 $4.80  5-2-4 $58.02 $53.22 1109%
    DD (1/6/2)-(5/8/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00  6-5 $18.50 $6.50 54%
Simulator Race results
 
FE-1   09/12/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:23 :464       :60   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  DEVIL IN HER HEART 3 5 53 43½   32 11¼ (agostino roy)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 2.00 2.15  
2  VERI UNIFIED 2 3 1½ 11   11 21¼ (wills )HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 2.50 37% 1.70 1.50 P
5  FEEL LIKE GUESSING 5 2 31 21   21 34 (davi)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 3.00 2.20  
4  FOREST CHOICE 4 4 41 33½   43½ 48¾ (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 120 3.50 6.70  
1  WHATSWRONGWITHYOU 1 1 2½ 54½   55½ 510¼ (thompson va)WENC C 120 6.00 22% 3.50 16.45  
 
FE-2   09/12/2023 4290ft DIRT RC11 FAST Lake Erie Purse ($100K) 3 C/G PT- 1:29
See original race card.
:232 :453 1:102     1:164   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  ONE BAY HEMINGWAY 4 3 1½ 1nk   1nk 1nk (attard c)CONTRERAS LUIS 118 2.00 32% 2.10 0.60 W
  (by DANGER BAY out of MISS HEMINGWAY by CIRCULAR QUAY)
5  ONE MORE BREW 5 1 2½ 2nk   2nk 2nk (adamo anthon)KIMURA KAZUSHI 118 4.00 3.40  
  (by MILWAUKEE BREW out of OK ONE MORE by INCLUDE)
3  POULIN IN O T 3 6 62½ 32½   31½ 35¼ (owens steve)MUNGER RYAN 124 3.00 42% 1.40 3.50 S
  (by RELOAD out of TOWN DANCE by DANCE BRIGHTLY)
2  GUNS N' ROJAS 2 5 52 52¾   41¾ 45½ (buntain angus)STEIN JUSTIN 118 5.00 5% 19.00 22.15  
  (by SILVER MAX out of PLANTANA by TRAJECTORY)
6  DON'T STOP DREAMIN 6 2 41½ 42¾   51¾ 56½ (cec)HERNANDEZ MANUEL 118 10.00 18.65  
  (by GIANT GIZMO out of EXECUTIVE DREAMER by BOLD EXECUTIVE)
1  WALTER ME LAD 1 4 3½ 65¾   63¾ 69¾ (love m)MORENO OMAR 118 4.50 20.65  
  (by SOUPER SPEEDY out of SAN NICOLA KNIGHT by ASCOT KNIGHT)
 
FE-3   09/12/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:59
See original race card.
:241 :482 1:13 1:39   1:46   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  JACK THE CAT 7 4 42 43 1½ 12½ 1nk (chircop steven)SALLES LEO 122 2.50 16% 5.20 1.55 W
3  DOCTOR UPTOWN 3 8 74¾ 76½ 65½ 22½ 2nk (robill)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 8.00 1.55  
4  CRYPTIC CREED 4 3 32 32½ 55 43 33½ (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 122 15.00 5% 19.00 50.15 S
6  WILLIAM BOY 6 5 53 54½ 44½ 64¾ 46 (cathca)ALDERSON IAN 122 8.00 19.60  
2  DIAMONDBACK 2 1 11 11 2½ 33 57½ (crete pierr)WENC C 124 6.00 ★ 22.50  
1  VETTORI KIN (BRZ) 1 2 63¼ 65 76 75¼ 68 (adamo anthony)VIVES SOFIA 117 3.00 61% 0.60 3.25  
5  JEGOS FIRE 5 6 21 21 33½ 54½ 78½ (holder tedst)WALCOTT W 122 10.00 20.80  
8  CRUMLIN EXPERIENCE 8 7 84¾ 86½ 88 87¼ 810½ (simms c)MAILHOT P 122 4.00 23.50  
 
FE-4   09/12/2023 4290ft DIRT RC11 FAST Rondeau Bay Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 2:28
See original race card.
:231 :461 1:104     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  FASHIONABLY FAB 7 2 32 21   2½ 1hd (attard kevin)HUSBANDS P 122 4.50 1.80  
  (by SILENT NAME out of FLASHY'S LEGACY by CURLIN)
6  FOOLISH GAMES 5 3 11 11   1½ 2hd (love m)MORENO OMAR 122 2.00 49% 1.10 5.35 P
  (by RELOAD out of JUNGLE JEWEL by HORSE GREELEY)
2  SOUPER SINCLAIR 2 5 53 41¼   42½ 35¾ (hall phili)CAMPOS LUIS 122 3.00 5.25  
  (by SOUPER SPEEDY out of SHE STANDS PROUD by PROUD CITIZEN)
1  ANAM CARA 1 6 74½ 61¾   63¾ 46½ (ritchie sarah)CIVACI SAHIN 122 8.00 7.05  
  (by FRAC DADDY out of ME LOVE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
3  VERI GIZMO 3 7 63½ 72   32½ 57¼ (carroll josi)KIMURA KAZUSHI 118 6.00 19% 4.30 2.10  
  (by AMIS GIZMO out of VERISMILITUDE by HENNY HUGHES)
4  FLOWERS 'N BERRIES 4 1 42½ 51¼   52¾ 68¾ (mcdonald mic)NICHOLLS KEVEH 118 10.00 21.90  
  (by SOUPER SPEEDY out of MISCHEVIOUS MIA by FORESTRY)
7  LANTANA LADY 6 4 21 31   76¾ 721 (attard steve)MUNGER RYAN 118 12.00 5% 19.00 19.30  
  (by AMI'S HOLIDAY out of SHILLA by MARQUETRY)
SCR  SARAH'S DANCER               (dixon patrick)SALLES LEO 118 15.00    
  (by AMI'S HOLIDAY out of SARAHS RAHY DANCER by RAHY)
 
FE-5   09/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:58
See original race card.
:222 :46 :584     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  LITTLE FIRE 5 3 45½ 45½   41½ 1hd (lafond renic)NICHOLLS KEVEH 124 2.50 3.75  
3  SHANGHAI KIMMY 3 5 21½ 2½   1nk 2hd (robillard josh)SALLES LEO 124 3.50 3.10  
4  JUNGLE GODDESS 4 2 11½ 1½   2nk 3¾ (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 4.50 24% 3.20 3.20 S
2  NATASHA'S BIZNIZ 2 1 32½ 33½   31 41¾ (ceccato shar)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 119 1.60 25% 3.10 1.65  
1  SUBZERO PLUS 1 4 56½ 56½   53 53½ (powell a)VIVES SOFIA 124 6.00 5.95  
 
FE-6   09/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Molson Cup Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:27
See original race card.
:231 :461 1:392     1:462   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  TRISH THE DISH 7 4 68 512½ 49½ 22 14¼ (capi m)SINGH S 122 10.00 5% 19.00 9.90 W
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of WILLIAMS BAY by KITTEN'S JOY)
3  GLITTER BAY 3 1 12 13½ 14 12 24¼ (bailey barbara)JOHNSON KIRK 122 3.50 21% 3.70 3.20 P
  (by TAMARKUZ out of BY THE SHORE by INCLUDE)
8  DOODLE DANDY 8 8 811½ 717½ 615 64¼ 35 (hoad lindsey)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 122 15.00 33.65  
  (by NONIOS out of MISS YANKEE by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
4  REIGN BY REIN 4 2 46 410½ 59½ 43 45½ (ezra d)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 122 6.00 11.35  
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of SILKY GIRL by SCAT DADDY)
5  MENAGERIE 5 6 710½ 818½ 819½ 85¼ 56½ (albu ken)VIVES SOFIA 122 8.00 19.05  
  (by VIOLENCE out of HOLY FLAME by PULPIT)
6  MONASTERY LANE 6 5 58 613 716 74¾ 66½ (buttigieg kevin)SALLES LEO 122 3.00 46% 1.20 1.55  
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of HENNY'S HEART by HENNY HUGHES)
2  PLUIE D'AVRIL 2 7 22 23½ 24 32 78¾ (simms )ALDERSON IAN 122 4.00 11% 7.90 4.75  
  (by BIG SCREEN out of PERFECT DREAMER by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
1  AWILDAS TREASURE 1 3 32½ 35½ 37½ 54 811½ (powell dal)CAMPOS LUIS 122 5.00 5.50  
  (by TREASURE BEACH out of MAFIETTA by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
 
FE-7   09/12/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:57
See original race card.
:232 :471 1:121     1:183   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  JOLENE JOLENE 2 6 2½ 1nk   12 14¾ (ladauceur haro)BYNOE DESEAN 115 3.00 2.90  
7  ZIPPITY DAY 7 3 43½ 54½   32 24¾ (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 2.50 63% 0.60 0.80 P
1  ONLY BELIEVE 1 7 1½ 2nk   22 38 (corbet)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 8.00 15.00  
4  SECRET SUNSHINE 4 5 64 64¾   63¼ 48¾ (agostino roy)CHEYNE A 120 4.00 ★ 13.20  
5  HONEYS DIAMOND 5 1 32½ 32½   42¼ 510 (will)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 124 5.00 4.00  
6  LUNATICA 6 2 78 79¾   74¾ 610½ (ceccato shar)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 115 6.00 5% 19.00 18.90  
3  ORIGINAL ME 3 4 53½ 43½   53¼ 711½ (ke)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 12.00 50.75  
 
FE-8   09/12/2023 4290ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Le Cinquieme Essai Cup Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:26
See original race card.
:223 :452 1:101     1:17   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  VINNIE VAN GO 5 1 12 13½   13 12 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 122 2.50 25% 3.00 0.65 W
  (by J P'S GUSTO out of VAN BRIT by VAN NISTELROOY)
2  MAYITO 2 2 55 54½   23 22 (loescher paula)MAILHOT P 122 12.00 5% 19.00 11.05 P
  (by DECLARATION OF WAR out of BUTTRESS by ARCH)
1  ALACRITOUS 1 6 32½ 34   34 36¾ (buttigieg kevi)BYNOE DESEAN 124 2.00 48% 1.10 4.45 S
  (by NONIOS out of SHES THE REAL DEAL by SONGANDAPRAYER)
3  MOBILIZER 3 5 22 23½   44 48 (keen h)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 122 8.00 26.05  
  (by PASSION FOR ACTION out of KRZ EXEC by BOLD EXECUTIVE)
5  JACK BEANSTALK 4 4 43½ 64¾   66 58¾ (drexle)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 4.00 2.85  
  (by JACK MILTON out of SAM'S ROMAN AFFAIR by ROMAN RULER)
7  I LIVE BY FAITH 6 3 66 44½   55 69¼ (powell a)VIVES SOFIA 122 10.00 17.50  
  (by GIANT GIZMO out of SHE'S A RINGER by WHERE'S THE RING)
SCR  VICTORY MARCH               (simms )ALDERSON IAN 122 6.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of VICTORY ON TAP by PLEASANT TAP)
 
FE-9   09/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:56
See original race card.
:232 :47 1:12 1:392   1:463   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  SPIRIT BELLE 5 1 11½ 12½ 15½ 12½ 12 (meli salva)CAMPOS LUIS 120 4.50 35% 1.80 11.00 W
2  MAKES SENSE TO ME 2 2 65½ 77¼ 36½ 22½ 22 (powell)ALDERSON IAN 122 8.00 15% 5.90 4.55 P
4  ISA BREEZE 4 5 32½ 22½ 25½ 33½ 33½ (simms )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 8.00 8% 12.00 3.00 S
6  DONNARUMMA 6 8 43½ 56 89¾ 56 43½ (buttig)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 6.00 4.60  
8  SUPER COOL STORM 8 6 76½ 67 67¾ 45½ 53¾ (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 124 2.50 17% 4.70 2.10  
1  FLAT OUT ANGEL 1 7 87 87¼ 79¾ 66½ 67¼ (wills daniel)MAILHOT P 120 10.00 20.95  
7  TOTAL BETTY 7 3 54 45 57½ 77 712¼ (dixon patrick)SALLES LEO 122 3.00 6.80  
3  HEAR ME KNOCKING 3 4 21½ 32½ 46½ 88 815¾ (capi m)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 115 10.00 38.90  
 
FE-10   09/12/2023 6270ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Prince Purse ($400K) 3 ALL PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:101 1:352   1:551   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  VELOCITOR 9 4 31 31½ 21 1½ 11 (attard kevin)STEIN JUSTIN 126 6.00 ★ 7.85  
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of POLAR PLUNGE by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
6  KAUKOKAIPUU 5 2 42½ 63 43 3½ 21 (holder tedst)WALCOTT W 126 12.00 5% 19.00 7.75 P
  (by MR SPEAKER out of GREY PRIDE by PARTNER'S HERO)
8  PARAMOUNT PRINCE 7 1 11 11 11 2½ 31¼ (casse mark)HUSBANDS P 126 1.60 37% 1.70 2.70 S
  (by SOCIETY'S CHAIRMAN out of PLATINUM STEEL by EDDINGTON)
12  COOL KISS 11 10 109½ 99 74¼ 42½ 43¼ (depaulo mi)CAMPOS LUIS 126 8.00 ★ 9.90  
  (by KANTHAROS out of HOT KISS by PHILANTHROPIST)
9  TIBURON 8 5 97 109½ 86¼ 75½ 59 (attard kevin)CIVACI SAHIN 126 15.00 13.10  
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of ENOREE by MORE THAN READY)
3  TWIN CITY 2 6 74¼ 74 64¼ 64 610¾ (simon stuart)BOULANGER G 126 12.00 26.00  
  (by KLIMT out of MINNIE APPLE IS by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
4  STANLEY HOUSE 3 3 52¾ 42½ 31 53½ 711½ (dep)HERNANDEZ MANUEL 126 4.00 36% 1.80 1.55  
  (by ARMY MULE out of STORMY'S SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  TRINITY PARK 4 11 1110½ 1110½ 108¼ 86½ 823¼ (dunslow mi)FUKUMOTO DAISUKE 126 30.00 ######  
  (by GIANT GIZMO out of MALASPINA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  STAYHONOR GOODSIDE 6 8 62¾ 53 96¾ 98½ 929¼ (casse mar)WILSON JAYNE 126 10.00 32.40  
  (by HONOR CODE out of NICKI KNEW by TETHRA)
2  MORSTACHY'S 1 7 86¾ 88 1110¾ 1111 1036½ (lafond e)SALLES LEO 126 30.00 76.15  
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of WEKIVA MIST by WEKIVA SPRINGS)
11  OTTAWA 10 9 21 21 54 109½ 1140 (carroll josi)KIMURA KAZUSHI 126 20.00 13.85  
  (by VIOLENCE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  ARMALINE               (mcknight nor)CONTRERAS LUIS 126 30.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of STARMALINE by STAR GUITAR)
 
FE-11   09/12/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($8K) Purse ($22.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:09
See original race card.
:23 :46 1:102     1:164   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  STRIKING MOON 6 1 21 11   1½ 11 (mileni nic)KING MARIE 124 2.50 32% 2.10 1.40 W
2  PAPERBACK HERO 2 7 33½ 21   2½ 21 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 122 4.00 36% 1.80 1.90 P
1  BEYOND MY DREAMS 1 8 78½ 57   44½ 36¼ (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 120 8.00 15.65  
4  EXCEED 4 3 56½ 67¼   54½ 48 (agostino roy)CHEYNE A 122 15.00 5% 19.00 30.65  
9  PRIVATE LAKE 8 2 44 42   33½ 58 (davi)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 5.00 12.60  
6  BOCELLI (IRE) 5 6 810½ 812¾   76¾ 68¼ (ke)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 20.00 58.70  
8  WENJACK 7 5 68 710¼   86¾ 714½ (husban)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 20.00 10.30  
3  W W SPRINGTIME 3 4 11 31   64¾ 820¾ (mcmahon william )SALLES LEO 120 3.00 8% 12.10 4.35  
SCR  SUMMER RETREAT               (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 120 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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