Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Wednesday - August 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
SAR-1   WIN (5/6/2/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/2/9)-(5/6/2/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/2/9)-(5/6/2/9)-(5/6/2/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/6/2/9)-(6/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2/9)-(6/2)-(1/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
SAR-2   WIN (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/2)-(6/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/2)-(1/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (6/2)-(1/7)-(5/10/12/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
SAR-3   WIN (1/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/7)-(1/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/7)-(5/10/12/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/7)-(5/10/12/3)-(7/10/4/2) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
SAR-4   WIN (5/10/12/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/10/12/3)-(5/10/12/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/10/12/3)-(5/10/12/3)-(5/10/12/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/10/12/3)-(7/10/4/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/10/12/3)-(7/10/4/2)-(8/4/5/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
SAR-5   WIN (7/10/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/10/4/2)-(7/10/4/2/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/10/4/2)-(7/10/4/2/1)-(7/10/4/2/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/10/4/2)-(8/4/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/10/4/2)-(8/4/5/1)-(7/9/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
SAR-6   WIN (8/4/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/5/1)-(8/4/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/5/1)-(8/4/5/1)-(8/4/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/5/1)-(7/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/4/5/1)-(7/9/1)-(5/8/3/1/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
SAR-7   WIN (7/9/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/9/1)-(7/9/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/9/1)-(7/9/2/1)-(7/9/2/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/9/1)-(5/8/3/1/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/9/1)-(5/8/3/1/7)-(4/11/1/10/7) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
SAR-8   WIN (5/8/3/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/3/1/7)-(5/8/3/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/8/3/1/7)-(5/8/3/1/7)-(5/8/3/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/8/3/1/7)-(4/11/1/10/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
SAR-9   WIN (4/11/1/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/11/1/10/7)-(1/4/11/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/11/1/10/7)-(1/4/11/10/7)-(1/4/11/10/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   08/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($88K) 2 F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DENVER'S ALLEY         (duggan da)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
  (by ALGORITHMS out of HUG DOC by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  SPEIGHTS DANCE         (duggan p)CARMOUCHE K 119 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of NESSELRODE by LEMON DROP KID)
2  BERNIETAKESCHARGE Aug02         (schettino domin)DAVIS KATIE 119 6.00 14% 6.30    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of BERNING ROSE by FREUD)
3  DOWNTOWN CHANNEL         (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 119 8.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of WARM FRONT by WAR FRONT)
4  BOSSY JEANS Jun29         (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 119 6.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of IN THE JEANS by UNION RAGS)
5  RUN FOR YOUR HONEY Aug02 Jul14 Jun15     (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 119 4.50 40% 1.50    
  (by TAPIZAR out of GRACEFUL RAGE by TIZNOW)
6  ONCE AN EAGLE Aug02         (clement christ)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 3.00 19% 4.30    
  (by TONALIST out of DERRIANNE by COZZENE)
7  BERTRILLE Jul19         (brown bruce)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 20.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of SILLY SISTER by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  ALITTLEBITNAUGHTY         (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of REACHFORTHEHEAVENS by PULPIT)
9  GRAB THE GLORY Jul27 Jul09 Jun15     (rice linda)ORTIZ L 119 5.00 5% 17.20    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of BRIDGEHAMPTON by BERNARDINI)
 
SAR-2   08/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DARK PRINCESS Jul20 May26 May12     (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 2.00    
2  DON'T TELL AMY Jul07 Feb19 Dec18 Oct23   (morley thoma)TORRES A 113 3.00 14% 6.00    
3  GRACEFUL Jul29 Jun02 May26 Apr28 Mar17 (friedman mitche)DAVIS DYLAN 118 6.00    
4  TOOSHAY Jun03 May14 Apr30 Mar17   (contessa c)DAVIS KATIE 118 20.00    
SCR  TRES CHIC (ARG) Jul02 May27       (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00    
6  THESTRAL Jul20 Feb08 Jan13 Nov17 Oct16 (caramori caio)ROSARIO JOEL 118 1.80 63% 0.60    
 
SAR-3   08/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($42K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN Aug03 Jun16 Apr30 Apr21 Mar26 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 1.20 48% 1.10    
SCR  TIMED OUT Jul12 Jun14 May31 May22 Apr25 (d'alessandro )ORTIZ JR 118 3.50    
SCR  GREATEST LOVE Aug03 Jul20 Jun22 Apr20 Mar17 (barrera osca)TORRES A 113 12.00    
4  GRINGOTTS Jul27 Jun22 Jun02 May18 May11 (younghans w)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 20.00    
5  VEGAS WEEKEND May11 Apr21 Mar24 Feb24 Jan15 (baker charlton)LEZCANO JOSE 120 10.00    
SCR  VITAEMI Jul27 May16 May02 Mar20 Feb22 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.50    
7  ITS COLD IN DEHERE Aug03 Jun02 Mar31 Mar24 Feb17 (toscano t)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.00 29% 2.40    
 
SAR-4   08/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RUM RUNNER READY Jun17 May18 Apr16 Feb15 Dec29 (maker micha)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 8.00    
2  NOW SHOWING Jul19 Jun02 Apr19 Mar18 Jan29 (terranova p)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
3  EXPLOSIVE EXCHANGE Jul28 Jul14 Jun04 May20 Apr15 (dini mike)ROSARIO JOEL 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ROSEMARY POTATOES Jul13 Jul02 May18 Apr28 Nov17 (arenas ma)HERNANDEZ F 122 30.00    
5  WORLD TRAVELER Jul28 Jul02 Jun09 May27 Jun19 (sacco gregory )LEZCANO JOSE 122 3.50 51% 1.00    
6  NEED SOME MONEY Jul13 Jun01 May20 Apr28 Apr07 (amoss m)DAVIS DYLAN 118 12.00    
SCR  MADDIE'S GRACE Jul19 May18 Apr22 Nov19 Aug24 (kimmel c)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00    
SCR  THREE GIRLS Jul23 Dec24 Oct28 Sep05   (begg jam)SANTANA JR 120 6.00    
SCR  SARATOGA GAZE Jul13 May28 Apr22 Mar26 Oct23 (hennig mark)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 6.00    
10  PROUD FOOT Jul19 Jun10 May20 May03 Apr08 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 124 5.00 14% 6.20    
11  WILL BE FAMOUS Apr02 Mar03 Feb09 Jan12 Dec06 (toscano t)RIDER TBA 120 6.00    
12  SHIGEKO Jul30 Dec18 Nov19 Jun19   (kantarmaci mertka)RIDER TBA 122 10.00 11% 8.30    
 
SAR-5   08/16/2023 5940ft TURF RC9 GOOD Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPLENDID SUMMER Jun22 May14 Apr22 Aug07 Jul10 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 125 10.00 ★    
2  LORD FLINTSHIRE Jun10 May14 Sep04 Jul23 Jun24 (brion keri)CASTELLANO J 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  WISECRAKEN Jul02 Dec01 Oct23 Sep25   (nevin mi)SANTANA JR 120 20.00    
4  SHINSUN Jul01 May11 Oct29 Aug17 Jul23 (tagg barclay)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.00 6% 15.60    
5  FRONT MAN Jul13 Jun17 Oct23 Sep30 Jul23 (kantarmaci )ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 6.00    
6  BUCKORTWO Aug10 Jun24 May19 Jul30 Jun19 (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 20.00    
7  JARREAU Jul16 Jun29 May13 Apr12 Sep05 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 123 3.50 45% 1.20    
8  GHOSTLYPRINCE Jul09 Jun15 May14 Apr07 Mar18 (rodriguez rudy)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 10.00    
SCR  KINGDOM ON PAWS Aug10 Jul23 Jun10 Oct30 Oct06 (potts wayne)DAVIS DYLAN 125 12.00    
10  UNLEASH THE POWER Jul13 Jun01 Apr29 Mar02 Feb04 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00 24% 3.10    
SCR  FIGHT FIERCELY Jul16 Jun11 May04 Apr12 Mar12 (rodriguez r)RIDER TBA 118 3.50    
SCR  CHILENO Aug12 Jul13 May28 Apr19 Mar11 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 123 99.00    
 
SAR-6   08/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($149.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONGOLIAN PANTHER Jul12 May06 Apr02 Mar18 Feb17 (jacobson)SANTANA JR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
1A  STARSHIP DEFIANT Aug06 Jun10 May05 Mar27 Mar09 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 124 10.00    
SCR  MURSAL Aug12 Jul13 Jun04 May19 Mar24 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 118 15.00    
3  SA FORADADA Aug12 Jul13 Jun01 Jan13 Dec10 (dutrow richar)ORTIZ JR 124 8.00    
4  CUZ UR PRETTY Jun27 May17 Apr24 Aug10 Jul18 (progno christophe)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 34% 2.00    
5  THREE RIVERS Jun24         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 4.00 10% 8.90    
6  DIVINE CROSS Jan22 Dec04 Oct14     (kimmel john )CASTELLANO J 120 20.00    
SCR  CUPID'S HEART Jul22 Jun23 Nov25 Oct23 Sep05 (levine bruce)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 1.80    
8  PORTAGE Jul20 Jun23 May20 Mar16   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 124 3.50 34% 1.90    
 
SAR-7   08/16/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAMA BANNED ME Jul26 Jul20 Jun15 May13 Apr14 (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 120 30.00 5% 19.00    
2  LUCKY LUCKY LUKE Jul28 Jul03 Jun18 May06 Mar26 (noda orlando)ORTIZ JR 120 3.50 ★    
SCR  FREEZE POP Jun15 May20 Jan25 Dec30 Nov27 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 123 4.00 22% 3.50    
4  BREAK THE ICE Jul22 May19 Apr29 Mar24 Feb26 (hennig m)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 15.00    
5  STRONG LIGHT Jul22 Jul09 Jun24 Jun01 May14 (younghans willi)CARMOUCHE K 123 30.00    
6  BOYS CODE Jul22 Jul10 Jun27 Jun02 Apr16 (dixon k)DAVIS KATIE 120 20.00    
7  SOUTH STREET Aug10 Jul01 Jun02 May06 May15 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 123 1.00 42% 1.40    
8  ACHILLES HEEL Jul22 Jul03 May11 Apr20 Mar17 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 118 15.00    
9  HAPPY BOB Aug04 Jul19 May27 Dec15 Nov11 (schettino domi)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 8.00 12% 7.40    
 
SAR-8   08/16/2023 5610ft TURF RC11 GOOD Suzie O'Cain Purse ($125K) 3 F PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KOSUKE Jul15 May29 Apr15     (bond ja)ORTIZ L 118 6.00 10% 9.30    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of OSAKA by ALLEN'S PROSPECT)
2  SMOKIE EYES May29 May04 Nov27 Oct28 Oct08 (clement chris)ORTIZ JR 118 6.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of SMOKE SIGNALS by RUNAWAY GROOM)
3  IM JUST KIDDIN Jul19 Jun24 May29 Apr22 Oct30 (kimmel c)SAEZ LUIS 120 8.00 10% 8.70    
  (by JUSTIFY out of KHANCORD KID by LEMON DROP KID)
4  BERNT AGAIN Jul19 Jul02 May28 May06 Feb12 (schettino dom)FRANCO MANUEL 118 15.00    
  (by HONORABLE DILLON out of BERNSTEIN FLAMBE by BERNSTEIN)
5  SILVER SKILLET Jul15 Jun10 May11 Dec16 Oct30 (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 120 2.00 26% 2.80    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of CATCHA RISING STAR by RED GIANT)
6  THUNDARA Jul13         (antonacci ph)CASTELLANO J 118 12.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of NEHANTIC KAT by TOMORROWS CAT)
7  ORANGE FREEZE Jul19 Jun23 May28 Apr15 Sep15 (morey william )PRAT FLAVIEN 123 5.00 5% 17.80    
  (by FREUD out of HOOPSKIRT by BIRDSTONE)
8  COLLABORATION Jul19 Jun25 May29 May04 Apr08 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00 26% 2.90    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of PARC MONCEAU by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
9  SNOWY EVENING Jul15 Jun25 Jun03 May27 Apr08 (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 118 10.00    
  (by FROSTED out of BACKSLASH by SHARP HUMOR)
SCR  AMANDA'S FOLLY Jul26 Jul02 May20 May04 Apr27 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 118 1.80    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of PRIVACY by NOTEBOOK)
SCR  ICHIBAN Jul26 Jul15 Jun25 Apr15 Mar18 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
  (by STREET SENSE out of COVER GIRL ELLE by OUT OF PLACE)
 
SAR-9   08/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GALATRONA May27 Apr08 Sep30     (bond harold )TORRES A 114 5.00 ★    
1A  PAUCILOQUENT Jun24 May18 Apr22 Mar12 Jan12 (bond harold)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 5.00 7% 12.70    
SCR  SHOWEMYOURHEELS Nov04 Oct06 Jul28     (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00    
SCR  PUREST PERFORMANCE Jun24 May18       (pregman john)CASTELLANO J 119 15.00    
4  RED BUTTERFLY Jul23 Jun15 Nov27 Oct28 Sep17 (de h)SANTANA JR 119 3.50 41% 1.50    
5  TRUE MARTINI Feb18 Jan07 Nov17 Sep17   (d'angelo jose )ORTIZ L 124 6.00    
SCR  MO DAMORNINGGROUCH Jul23 Jun24 May13 Oct09 Sep03 (reynolds)GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 8.00    
7  ROXEN Jul23         (barker edward )BROWN DALTON 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ARMY OF THOUGHTS Sep17         (begg bent)DAVIS DYLAN 119 12.00    
SCR  SONJA KNIPS Nov19 Sep30       (pugh d)DAVIS KATIE 119 10.00    
10  BEAUTIFULLY WICKED         (gyarmati le)MARTINEZ R 119 30.00 5% 18.20    
11  MARLEY'S GHOST Jul16 Jan22 Dec30 Nov27   (trombetta mich)LEZCANO JOSE 119 2.00 25% 3.00    
12  KNOCKZCATOFFZFENCE Aug10         (kantarmaci mertka)RIDER TBA 119 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.