Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Sunday - July 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
SAR-1   WIN (7/2/6/1/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/2/6/1/8)-(7/2/6/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/2/6/1/8)-(7/2/6/1/8)-(7/2/6/1/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/2/6/1/8)-(2/3/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/2/6/1/8)-(2/3/1)-(3/1/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
SAR-2   WIN (2/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/1)-(2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/1)-(3/1/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/3/1)-(3/1/6)-(4/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
SAR-3   WIN (3/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/6)-(3/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/6)-(3/1/6)-(3/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/6)-(4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/1/6)-(4/2)-(6/7/8) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
SAR-4   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    DD (4/2)-(6/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(6/7/8)-(10/6/2/3/1) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
SAR-5   WIN (6/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/8)-(6/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/8)-(6/7/8)-(6/7/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/8)-(10/6/2/3/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/7/8)-(10/6/2/3/1)-(2/5/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
SAR-6   WIN (10/6/2/3/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/6/2/3/1)-(10/6/2/3/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/6/2/3/1)-(10/6/2/3/1)-(10/6/2/3/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/6/2/3/1)-(2/5/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (10/6/2/3/1)-(2/5/6)-(7/10/4/2/5) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
SAR-7   WIN (2/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/6)-(2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/5/6)-(7/10/4/2/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/5/6)-(7/10/4/2/5)-(5/4/2/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
SAR-8   WIN (7/10/4/2/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/10/4/2/5)-(7/10/4/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/10/4/2/5)-(7/10/4/2/5)-(7/10/4/2/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/10/4/2/5)-(5/4/2/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/10/4/2/5)-(5/4/2/7)-(4/12/8/2/1) 100 $1.00 $100 
SAR-9   WIN (5/4/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/2/7)-(5/4/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/2/7)-(5/4/2/7)-(5/4/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/2/7)-(4/12/8/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
SAR-10   WIN (4/12/8/2/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/12/8/2/1)-(4/12/8/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/12/8/2/1)-(4/12/8/2/1)-(4/12/8/2/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   07/23/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($136.5K) 2 F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNDERTHEMISTLETOE         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of MISTLETOE by PAYNTER)
2  HARD TO JUSTIFY         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 3.50 24% 3.10    
  (by JUSTIFY out of INSTANT REFLEX by QUALITY ROAD)
3  LOOKS FIRST Jun18         (donk david)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of SPINNING LOOKS by HARD SPUN)
4  KATHERINE THOMAS         (tagg barclay)CASTELLANO J 119 6.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of CAROLINE THOMAS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  SASSY PRINCESS         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of RACHEL WALL by BLAME)
6  MAKIA         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 119 4.50 8% 11.50    
  (by STREET SENSE out of BEACH DIVA by MALIBU MOON)
7  APPELLATE         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00 25% 2.90    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LEIGH COURT by GRAND SLAM)
8  UNDER THE PALMS         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENTICED out of DESERT RECON by OUTFLANKER)
9  SNOW DANCE         (rice kevin)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of LOVE COVE by NOT FOR LOVE)
10  SINTRA Jun16         (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 119 6.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of TROPHY GIRL by TALC)
SCR  CAUSEWAY'S JEWEL         (dutrow anthon)VELAZQUEZ R 119 10.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of HARD CLOTH by HARD SPUN)
SCR  JUSTDENY         (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  BUCHU Jun16         (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of FLOWERING PEACH by GALILEO (ARG))
 
SAR-2   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($149.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEDDY Jul08 Jun04 May19 Feb11 Dec17 (goberdhan ch)CASTELLANO J 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  SLIP MAHONEY May13 Apr08 Mar04 Jan21 Dec17 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00 43% 1.30    
3  SET SAIL Jun11 May14 Mar27 Feb26   (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 2.50 29% 2.40    
4  MOUNT UP Jun22 Oct01       (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00    
5  TOP SECRET Jun18 May21 Nov09     (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 123 3.50    
6  WESTERN GHENT Jul07 Jun10 May06 Mar30 Feb18 (lukas wayne)CARMOUCHE K 118 15.00    
 
SAR-3   07/23/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY Jun25 May29 Sep25 Aug18 Jul09 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 122 6.00 8% 11.20    
2  FONTANAFREDDA May07 Apr16 Nov17 Oct15 Sep16 (bond harold )CASTELLANO J 122 5.00    
3  PALACE GOSSIP Jun16 Apr16 Nov10 Oct20 Aug14 (dutrow anthony)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 3.50 35% 1.90    
4  ITSAKEYPER Jun16 May12 Apr19 Mar26 Jan11 (albertrani )ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 6.00    
5  SOCIAL WHIRL (IRE) Nov10 Sep16 Jun24 May27   (morley thomas)VELAZQUEZ R 122 10.00    
6  BLAME IT ON MARY May29 Nov10 Oct15 Sep23 Aug26 (barker r)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 7% 12.50    
SCR  GET THE CANDY Jun24 May27 Apr22 Oct15 Sep15 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 124 2.00 20% 3.90    
SCR  AMANDA'S FOLLY Jul02 May20 May04 Apr27 Apr08 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 1.40    
SCR  DIVA BANKER Jul04 May07 Apr13 Mar19 Mar03 (d'angelo jose)ORTIZ JR 122 2.00    
 
SAR-4   07/23/2023 5940ft DIRT RC13 FAST Shuvee Purse ($200K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SKRATCH KAT Jul16 Jun03 Nov25 Oct21 Sep24 (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 20.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of WAVE THEORY by SMART STRIKE)
2  NEST Nov05 Oct09 Aug20 Jul23 Jun11 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 122 0.80 38% 1.60    
  (by CURLIN out of MARION RAVENWOOD by A.P. INDY)
3  PISTOL LIZ ABLAZEN Jun21 May29 Apr12 Feb18 Jan04 (reid e)CARMOUCHE K 118 15.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of VISION OF LIZ by POLLARD'S VISION)
4  CLAIRIERE Jun10 Apr15 Mar11 Nov05 Aug27 (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 124 0.60 42% 1.40    
  (by CURLIN out of CAVORTING by FOOLISH PLEASURE)
 
SAR-5   07/23/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($36K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DURKIN'S CALL Jul02 May04 Apr07 Mar25 Feb17 (baker charlton)DAVIS DYLAN 118 5.00    
2  CASH NOW May14 Apr15 Jan29 Jan21 Jan01 (atras rob)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50    
SCR  WINNING DRIVE Jun24 May26 Mar26 Feb26 Feb09 (kantarmaci mertka)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
SCR  ALCOOLS Jun16 May27 May13 Apr29 Mar25 (levine bruce)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.00    
5  POPPY'S PRIDE May26 May07 Mar25 Mar03 Feb09 (rodriguez gust)LEZCANO JOSE 118 8.00    
6  SPANKHURST Mar10 Feb04 Nov17 Oct27 Sep23 (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 33% 2.00    
7  THREE TWO ZONE Jun24 Jun04 May18 Mar07 Jan28 (trite)HERNANDEZ OMAR 111 12.00 24% 3.20    
8  PRINTRACK Jun24 Jun04 May07 Mar25 Feb12 (quick patric)TORRES A 115 12.00 14% 6.10    
 
SAR-6   07/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($136.5K) 2 F PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANDY LOVER Jun23         (devaux c)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TAURASI by MINESHAFT)
2  MYSTICAL CHANT Jun23         (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 119 5.00 25% 3.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of MUSICAL MYSTERY by CONCERTO)
3  ILIKEITLIKETHAT Jun16         (reid e)LEZCANO JOSE 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPIT out of NOBLE FREUD by FREUD)
4  COLONIAL ROSE         (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of COLBY CAKES by SCAT DADDY)
5  CREDITOR Jun30         (lukas wayne)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 20.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of DEBIT by TAPIT)
6  LOVE TO EAT Jun30         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 26% 2.90    
  (by MITOLE out of AWESOME FIGURE by PAYNTER)
7  ALPINE PRINCESS         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of LE MOINE by CURLIN)
8  LIFE'S JOY         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 10.00    
  (by MITOLE out of BEHOLDEN by CAT THIEF)
9  SAM'S TREASURE May11         (ward a)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of MALIBU TREASURE by MALIBU MOON)
10  CAMERA         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 2.50 26% 2.90    
  (by CURLIN out of CASSIES DREAMER by FLATTER)
SCR  RINGY DINGY         (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of WIND CAPER by TOUCH GOLD)
 
SAR-7   07/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($50K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LITTLE DEMON Jun25 May20 Mar16 Feb11 Jan20 (toscano t)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 10.00    
2  COLONEL BOWMAN May27 May13 Apr28 Apr07 Mar23 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 123 1.20 46% 1.20    
SCR  AMANI'S EAGLE Jun29 May26 May12 Apr13 Nov12 (barkley )SANTANA JR 118 15.00    
SCR  LORD GATLING Jul01 May13 Apr16 Mar26 Feb02 (pringle edmu)BRIDGMOHAN X 118 50.00    
5  CARAMEL CHIP Jun25 Jun11 May04 Apr12 Mar23 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 20% 4.00    
6  LORD CAPTAIN May13 Feb23 Feb03 Jan13 Nov25 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 6.00 8% 11.30    
SCR  GLORY ROAD May27 Apr27 Apr06 Mar25 Mar12 (rodriguez rudy)LEZCANO JOSE 118 6.00    
8  ROYAL TRYST Jun17 May20 Apr30 Mar25 Mar04 (arenas marcelo)CARMOUCHE K 118 20.00    
SCR  FLOAT ON Jun06 Apr04 Mar08 Feb20 Jan30 (jacobson dav)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00    
 
SAR-8   07/23/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($32K) Purse ($64K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WITH THIS VOW Jul20 Jun16 Feb07 Oct30 Oct02 (dutrow richard)LEZCANO JOSE 118 10.00    
2  SISTER ANNIE Jul03 Feb10 Dec02 Oct19 Sep14 (donk david)CARMOUCHE K 118 20.00 7% 14.30    
3  LINNY KATE Jul16 Jun23 Jun03 Apr27 Mar29 (noda orlando)ROSARIO JOEL 123 20.00    
4  TASS (GB) May26 Oct26 Oct02 Sep24 Sep07 (antonacci phil)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 9% 9.80    
5  STRONG ODOR May26 May12 Apr01 Feb24 Jan28 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BLUE TIMES Jun03 Mar26 Feb12 Dec04 Sep25 (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.00    
7  R CALLI KIM Jul03 May26 Apr23     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 38% 1.60    
8  LUCKY PERIDOT May26 Mar23 Feb08 Jan05 Dec02 (walder r)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 10.00    
9  JACKIE THE JOKER May26 May12 Apr12 Mar28 Mar02 (quick patri)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 30.00    
10  CAFE FLEUR (FR) Oct13 Aug17 Jul03 May19 Jan29 (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 22% 3.50    
11  PEACE SEEKER Jul04 Jun11 May19 Mar26 Mar05 (abreu fernan)CASTELLANO J 118 6.00    
 
SAR-9   07/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WRITER'S REGRET Jun20 May29 May15 Apr24 Apr07 (d'alessandro)HARKIE K 126 30.00    
2  BIG ENGINE Jun22 May21 Apr28 Apr20 Feb18 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00 10% 8.80    
3  MARKET ALERT May27 May14 Apr16 Mar19 Mar04 (baker charlton)ROSARIO JOEL 124 6.00    
4  ANDIAMO A FIRENZE May12 Mar19 Feb11 Jan07 Oct17 (david carlos )ORTIZ JR 118 5.00 11% 8.30    
5  MAJORITY PARTNER Jul08 May27 Apr30 Apr14 Mar19 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 126 1.80 33% 2.00    
6  SCILLY CAY Jun22 Jun04 May13 Apr30 Mar25 (reynolds patri)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 12.00    
7  OCEAN'S RESERVE Jun17 May29 Dec29 Nov11 Oct20 (gyarmati lea)CASTELLANO J 124 6.00 8% 11.20    
8  THRILL OF IT Jun22 Apr30 Mar24 Jul28 May30 (terranova jo)TORRES A 119 8.00    
 
SAR-10   07/23/2023 3630ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY CARA MIA MINE Jun23 May18 Apr08 Sep30 Sep03 (friedman mi)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DREAM ON CARA Jul03 Jun18 Jun01 Apr23 Apr06 (friedman mitchell)RIDER TBA 119 15.00    
2  DADDYSLILBOSSLADY Jun15 Jan22       (brown r)CARMOUCHE K 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  GIGGLING GHOST Jun23 May18 Apr14 Mar19 Jul24 (quick pa)DAVIS A 124 30.00    
4  THREE GIRLS Dec24 Oct28 Sep05     (weaver george)LEZCANO JOSE 119 4.00 47% 1.10    
5  RED BUTTERFLY Jun15 Nov27 Oct28 Sep17   (de horacio)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
6  MO DAMORNINGGROUCH Jun24 May13 Oct09 Sep03 Jun26 (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 124 10.00    
7  DANCE WITH ME BABE Jun24 May18 Apr22 Sep30   (nevin michell)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50    
8  LAKESIDE GETAWAY May27 Apr08 Mar16 Feb11 Jan08 (trombett)SANTANA JR 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
9  NEVER PERSONAL Jun23 May13 Jan14 Oct28 Aug12 (levine bruce)DAVIS KATIE 119 30.00    
10  ROXEN         (barker edwar)TORRES A 119 30.00    
11  LADY BANKER Jun24 Feb26 Jan28     (weaver geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
12  GOTHAM GRAY May18 Apr14 Mar11     (clement christ)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 6.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  GALATRONA May27 Apr08 Sep30     (bond harold )TORRES A 114 20.00    
SCR  TRUE MARTINI Feb18 Jan07 Nov17 Sep17   (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 124 12.00    
SCR  DREAMING OF CARLI Jun23 May18       (barker edward )ORTIZ L 119 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.