Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belmont Park
Thursday - May 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BEL-1   WIN (1/2/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/7/5)-(1/2/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/7/5)-(1/2/7/5)-(1/2/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/7/5)-(1/7/2/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/2/7/5)-(1/7/2/3)-(2/7/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
BEL-2   WIN (1/7/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/2/3)-(1/7/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/2/3)-(1/7/2/3)-(1/7/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/2/3)-(2/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/7/2/3)-(2/7/1)-(3/2/1/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
BEL-3   WIN (2/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/1)-(2/7/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/7/1)-(2/7/1/4)-(2/7/1/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/7/1)-(3/2/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/1)-(3/2/1/7)-(10/2/5/12/11) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
BEL-4   WIN (3/2/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/1/7)-(3/2/1/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/2/1/7)-(3/2/1/7/4)-(3/2/1/7/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/2/1/7)-(10/2/5/12/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1/7)-(10/2/5/12/11)-(3/1/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
BEL-5   WIN (10/2/5/12/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/2/5/12/11)-(10/2/5/12/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/2/5/12/11)-(10/2/5/12/11)-(10/2/5/12/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/2/5/12/11)-(3/1/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (10/2/5/12/11)-(3/1/2)-(4/6/3) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
BEL-6   WIN (3/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/2)-(4/6/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2)-(4/6/3)-(1/6/5/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
BEL-7   WIN (4/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/3)-(4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/3)-(1/6/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/6/3)-(1/6/5/8)-(8/1/10/11/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
BEL-8   WIN (1/6/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/5/8)-(1/6/5/8/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/6/5/8)-(1/6/5/8/3)-(1/6/5/8/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/6/5/8)-(8/1/10/11/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
BEL-9   WIN (8/1/10/11/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/1/10/11/5)-(8/1/10/11/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/1/10/11/5)-(8/1/10/11/5)-(8/1/10/11/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BEL-1   05/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($35K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALENTINA Apr28 Feb17 Jan07     (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 113 1.80 45% 1.20    
2  WELCOMETOMYWORLD Apr20 Apr02 Dec18 Nov25 Nov06 (atras rob)OLVER MADISON 111 3.00 15% 5.50    
3  GERMANY JAYVO Apr28 Apr02 Mar05 Jan22 Jan12 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 15.00    
4  ACCEL ROSE Apr20 Mar31 Mar04     (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 118 2.50    
5  HERECOMES SCARLETT Apr28 Apr16 Mar17 Jan29 Dec04 (miceli mich)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 6.00 6% 15.40    
6  GEORGIE'S LADIES Apr16 Mar24 Mar12 Jan08   (barker edwa)MARTINEZ R 124 12.00    
7  AKIVA         (chichakl)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 10.00 7% 13.50    
 
BEL-2   05/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUSICAL HEART Apr28 Apr19 Mar19 Feb10 Jan07 (jacobson david)CANCEL ERIC 120 1.60 33% 2.00    
SCR  LITTLE DEMON Mar16 Feb11 Jan20 Jan14 Dec28 (jacobson david)CARMOUCHE K 123 1.60    
2  FOREVER WICKED Apr14 Mar26 Mar18 Mar10 Feb26 (persaud rand)SAMUEL L 123 5.00    
2B  DONTBELATE Apr28 Apr01 Mar05 Feb18 Jan14 (persa)HERNANDEZ OMAR 116 5.00 13% 6.80    
3  ROYAL REALM Apr28 Mar26 Feb19 Feb10 Dec14 (sciacca gary)TORRES A 115 10.00 11% 8.10    
4  AMERICAN LINCOLN Apr29 Apr14 Mar18 Feb19 Feb10 (romero j)DAVIS A 120 30.00    
5  MISTER WINSTON Mar30 Sep06 Aug22 Jul19 Jul09 (arriaga antonio)DAVIS KATIE 120 15.00    
6  SWIFT TAP Apr14 Mar18 Feb11 Jan07 Dec10 (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 3.00    
7  CARIBBEAN (AUS) May04 Apr06 Mar10 Feb25 Feb12 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 17% 5.00    
 
BEL-3   05/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRADE SECRET Apr20 Mar24 Feb19 Jan15 Dec10 (brown )MARAGH RAMSAY 123 6.00 14% 6.30    
2  GYPSY JANIE Apr13 Jun14 May13 Mar07 Feb08 (falcone robe)TORRES A 115 3.50 42% 1.40    
3  GRINGOTTS May11 Apr20 Mar31 Feb17 Dec30 (younghans wi)HARKIE K 120 10.00    
4  TWICE SMITTEN Apr13 Mar17 Jun15     (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00 ★    
5  CARLY HUSTLE Mar24 Feb20 Jan29 Jan12 Dec01 (tosc)HUAYAS (JASON) 118 6.00    
6  REDZILLA May04 Apr01 Mar22 Mar04 Feb17 (paragall)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 15.00    
7  VALLARAND Apr13 Feb17 Feb10 Jan06 Dec10 (atras rob)OLVER MADISON 116 4.00 14% 5.90    
8  KEEN DANCER May11 Apr27 Apr20 Apr13 Mar31 (persaud rand)SAMUEL L 123 12.00    
 
BEL-4   05/18/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($41K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS KRISTY Mar26 Feb17 Jan05 Nov13 Oct12 (cibelli jane)ORTIZ L 120 5.00 11% 8.50    
2  INTO TOURING Mar29 Feb09 Jan15 Dec10 Nov27 (walder pete)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 4.00 11% 8.20    
3  ANILEATE Apr28 Mar12 Jan01 Dec03 Nov19 (russell britt)FRANCO MANUEL 124 2.00 47% 1.10    
4  IRONY Mar19 Feb18 Jan04 Dec16 Nov04 (giangiulio mich)DAVIS KATIE 118 15.00 ★    
5  ROSEMARY POTATOES Apr28 Nov17 Nov06 Sep22 Sep01 (aren)HUAYAS (JASON) 119 6.00    
6  JOEYBIGNOSE Apr16 Apr02 Feb26 Jan20 Dec16 (lynch natali)TORRES A 113 15.00    
7  CHAMPAGNE POETRY Apr22 Feb24 Jan29 May28 Apr02 (summer)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 8.00 8% 11.10    
8  LOST LUGGAGE Apr12 Feb07 Jan10 Nov04 Oct04 (servis john )CASTELLANO J 118 12.00    
9  HEARTBURN Apr28 Nov05 Oct23 Oct01 Sep09 (sanchez-salomo)CEDENO CAROL 124 8.00    
SCR  YOGI Mar12 Dec29 Nov26 Aug31 Aug03 (bond harold )TORRES A 119 2.50    
SCR  JOEY THE FISH Apr27 Apr02 Mar12 Jan27 Jan06 (persaud randi)CANCEL ERIC 118 8.00    
 
BEL-5   05/18/2023 4620ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($65K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUM RUNNER READY Apr16 Feb15 Dec29 Nov30 Sep16 (morey willi)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 10.00    
2  UP HER SLEEVE Apr21 Feb19 Jan28 Dec30 Dec02 (levine bruce)CASTELLANO J 125 6.00 19% 4.20    
SCR  IRISH JACKSON Apr30         (noda orlando)DAVIS KATIE 125 15.00    
SCR  LA AGUILILLA Apr28 Feb03 Jan13 Dec17 Oct22 (jacobson david)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00    
5  BUSTIN BULLET Apr28 Nov19 Oct22 Sep23 Aug28 (miceli michael)CANCEL ERIC 123 4.00 12% 7.50    
SCR  R GIRL FAITH May04 Apr21 Feb20 Jan20 Dec18 (thompson)GOMEZ ANTONIO 125 30.00    
7  SOLIB Oct20 Oct15 Aug24 Jul20 Jun30 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 123 8.00    
8  BELLA PRINCIPESSA May12 Apr21 Mar31 Mar11 Aug11 (klesaris rober)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 6.00    
9  GAME THEORY May07 Apr28 Apr21 Mar31 Mar18 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 118 30.00    
10  MADDIE'S GRACE Apr22 Nov19 Aug24 Jul15   (kimmel)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 5.00 19% 4.20    
11  PERFECT SENORITA Apr28 Mar19       (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 120 20.00 11% 7.80    
12  LOLA FLO Jul02 Jun19 Jun04 May22 May01 (cash l)ORTIZ L 123 6.00 12% 7.50    
SCR  CARBON May04 Apr02 Feb09 Jan06 Dec15 (kantarmaci mertka)RIDER TBA 123 3.50    
SCR  SHE CAUGHT MY EYE May04 Apr13 Jan22 Jan06 Dec08 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 125 2.50    
 
BEL-6   05/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($95K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRELINE Nov04 Oct02       (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 1.80 27% 2.80    
2  LAY THE GROUNDWORK Apr30 Mar23 Feb26 Jan25 Dec26 (hennig mark)FRANCO MANUEL 126 6.00 14% 6.00    
3  TOUGH STREET Mar25 Mar03 Jan22 Dec30 Nov11 (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 126 2.00 39% 1.60    
4  AMITY ISLAND May04 Apr21 Apr02 Mar25 Mar19 (gober)HERNANDEZ OMAR 119 30.00    
5  TONED UP Apr21 Mar17 Feb24 Jan28 Dec30 (chichakly amir)ORTIZ L 126 6.00    
SCR  WITH THIS VOW Feb07 Oct30 Oct02 Sep01 Aug14 (dutrow richa)TORRES A 121 3.50    
7  VIENNA CODE May06 Jan12 Dec16 Nov25 Oct28 (will)HUAYAS (JASON) 121 20.00    
 
BEL-7   05/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($105K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SYNTHESIS Apr29 Feb05 Jan28 Dec09 Nov26 (jacobson dav)CASTELLANO J 120 10.00    
SCR  TOPS THE CHART Apr20 Dec06 Oct25 Oct04 Aug25 (duarte jorge )FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00    
3  THREE TWO ZONE Mar07 Jan28 Dec30 Aug27 Jul17 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  FOLLOWING SEA         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 118 0.60 56% 0.80    
5  CHESTERTOWN Apr16 Feb20 Jan01 May22 Mar20 (asmussen st)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 6.00    
6  GUN IT Apr22 Mar11 Jan18 Nov05 Sep15 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 11% 8.00    
 
BEL-8   05/18/2023 4620ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MRS. GREEN Oct29 Oct15 Sep15 Aug14 Jul20 (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 121 4.50 32% 2.10    
2  MISS CAROL ANN (IRE) Sep18         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 121 6.00    
3  MISCHIEVOUS DREAM Oct29 Sep30 Sep02 Jul08 May27 (pletcher tod)CASTELLANO J 121 10.00 ★    
4  IN MY OPINION May08 Mar27 Feb21 Jan18 Dec14 (bedard alan)WOLFSONT ANDREW 123 50.00    
5  BREEZE EASY (GB) Nov27 Oct15 Sep18 Aug11 Jun25 (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 123 4.50 8% 11.20    
6  BAHAMIAN CLUB (IRE) Sep18 Aug12 Jun16 Feb12   (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 121 2.50 26% 2.90    
7  WONKA Apr21 Mar25 Feb25 Jan28 Dec04 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 123 10.00    
8  REGAL REALM Feb26 Dec04 Oct22 Aug19 Jul23 (thomas jonatha)ORTIZ L 123 4.00 8% 11.30    
9  SAIL BY Oct14 Sep18 Aug20 May28 Apr24 (antonacci phi)FRANCO MANUEL 121 12.00    
SCR  MOVIE MOXY Apr16 Mar25 Mar17 Feb10 Jan29 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 121 2.00    
SCR  HONEY MONEY Apr16 Mar17 Feb12 Dec29 Dec11 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 123 1.60    
 
BEL-9   05/18/2023 3960ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY CARA MIA MINE Apr08 Sep30 Sep03 Aug20 Jul23 (friedman mit)CASTELLANO J 124 6.00 13% 7.00    
2  PAUCILOQUENT Apr22 Mar12 Jan12     (bond harold)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 4.00    
3  GIGGLING GHOST Apr14 Mar19 Jul24 Jul04 Jun17 (quick pa)DAVIS A 124 15.00    
4  DANCE WITH ME BABE Apr22 Sep30       (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 118 10.00    
5  QUEENS OVER THREES Mar12 Feb11 Jan12 Nov27 Oct30 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 113 8.00 6% 15.00    
6  GOTHAM GRAY Apr14 Mar11       (clement christ)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00    
7  MARY KATHERINE Apr22         (lynch natalia)ROSARIO JOEL 118 10.00    
8  DREAMING OF CARLI         (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 5.00 37% 1.70    
9  GRACEFULNESS Apr23 Apr15 Feb24 Jan27   (donk david)DAVIS KATIE 118 15.00    
10  PUREST PERFORMANCE         (pregm)HERNANDEZ OMAR 111 15.00 12% 7.10    
11  MIZZ ME         (sharp joe)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 8.00 10% 9.30    
12  APRIL FIRST Apr22 Dec02 Oct23 Aug18   (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 15.00    
SCR  STRANGE FRUIT May06 Apr23 Mar31 Jan20   (reynolds patric)DAVIS KATIE 118 20.00    
SCR  UKRAINIAN PRINCESS Apr23 Feb26 Jan27 Dec18   (levi)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 3.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.