Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Friday - December 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (1/6/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/4/8)-(1/6/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/4/8)-(1/6/4/8)-(1/6/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/4/8)-(8/6/4/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/4/8)-(8/6/4/3)-(9/2/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-2   WIN (8/6/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/4/3)-(8/6/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/4/3)-(8/6/4/3)-(8/6/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/4/3)-(9/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/6/4/3)-(9/2/5)-(9/4/6/10) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-3   WIN (9/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/2/5)-(9/2/8/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/2/5)-(9/2/8/1/5)-(9/2/8/1/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (9/2/5)-(9/4/6/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/2/5)-(9/4/6/10)-(5/11/10) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-4   WIN (9/4/6/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/4/6/10)-(9/4/6/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/4/6/10)-(9/4/6/10)-(9/4/6/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/4/6/10)-(5/11/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/4/6/10)-(5/11/10)-(12/9/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-5   WIN (5/11/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/11/10)-(5/11/8/2/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/11/10)-(5/11/8/2/10)-(5/11/8/2/10) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/11/10)-(12/9/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/11/10)-(12/9/5)-(8/10/4/3/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
TAM-6   WIN (12/9/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (12/9/5)-(12/9/4/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (12/9/5)-(12/9/4/2/5)-(12/9/4/2/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (12/9/5)-(8/10/4/3/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (12/9/5)-(8/10/4/3/1)-(2/6/3/9) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TAM-7   WIN (8/10/4/3/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/10/4/3/1)-(8/10/4/3/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/10/4/3/1)-(8/10/4/3/1)-(8/10/4/3/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/10/4/3/1)-(2/6/3/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/10/4/3/1)-(2/6/3/9)-(1/10/13/9/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-8   WIN (2/6/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/3/9)-(2/6/3/9/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/6/3/9)-(2/6/3/9/7)-(2/6/3/9/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/6/3/9)-(1/10/13/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
TAM-9   WIN (1/10/13/9/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/10/13/9/7)-(1/10/13/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/10/13/9/7)-(1/10/13/9/7)-(1/10/13/9/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   12/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS MAC MAC Nov22 Oct21 Sep13 Aug16 Jul19 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 4.00 36% 1.80    
2  PLAYERA Nov04 Oct20 Oct07 Sep20 Sep08 (aguayo r)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 120 15.00    
3  DRILL'S VALENTINE Nov25 Jul01 Jun09 May06 Apr05 (chavez a)VILLA-GOMEZ H 120 10.00    
4  GRAND ARROW Oct26 Oct06 Sep21 Aug10 Jul21 (moysey chelsey)HIRALDO JOHN 118 5.00 11% 7.70    
5  PURE ELEGANCE Oct16 Oct02 Sep09 Aug18 Jun04 (torres)ROJAS EDUARDO 120 5.00    
6  PERFORMANCEANXIETY Dec06 Nov03 Oct25 Oct06 Aug25 (simone michael)CEDENO CAROL 120 3.00 14% 6.40    
7  STRIKING CHROME Sep16 Jul30 May06 Apr07 Mar17 (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 120 3.50    
8  CHESS NOT CHECKERS Nov25 Jun23 May25 Apr30 Mar29 (arriagada juan)GOMEZ KEVIN 120 8.00 9% 9.60    
 
TAM-2   12/15/2023 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($18.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALMASHRIQ Dec08 Nov10 Oct27 Oct15 Sep23 (pita daniel)MORELOS E 123 3.00    
2  BARLEEWON Nov25 Oct17 Sep07 Aug11 Jul22 (potts g)ALLEN D 121 8.00    
3  GOLDEN TONE Dec01 Oct23 Oct09 Sep13 Sep03 (rivera xavier )MENDEZ KEVIN 121 12.00 11% 8.00    
4  LORD BARNA Jul05 Jun13 May31 May06 Apr14 (o'connell kathle)FERRER C 121 6.00 12% 7.10    
5  WAR NOVEL Dec01 Oct25 Oct02 Sep18 Aug29 (feliciano ben)ALICEA JEREMY 114 6.00    
6  ANOTHER DUKE Nov19 Nov03 Sep03 Jul16 May20 (raven kerri)ARROYO S 121 2.50 19% 4.20    
7  SEVENTY SEVENTYCAT Dec08 Nov24 Jun30 Mar18 Mar04 (drake rob)VARGAS A 121 20.00    
8  PERFORMING ARTS (IRE) Nov10 Oct27 Dec10 Sep07 Jul19 (gatis chris)CAMACHO SAMY 121 3.50 20% 4.00    
 
TAM-3   12/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEWYEARSPRESENT Nov12 Jul08 Jun18 Jun02 May05 (o'connor robert )FERRER C 124 8.00 ★    
2  NOBLE TESS Nov25 Oct13       (o'connel)GALLARDO A 121 3.50 30% 2.40    
3  MIGHTY MADI Sep13 Aug30 Aug17 Jul15 Jun24 (rarick lynn)SPANABEL SKYLER 121 30.00    
4  BACK OFF ME Sep06 Aug17 Jul21 May26 May06 (russo j)LOPEZ E 124 10.00    
5  DUDEFOOLINGDARLING Oct27 Sep17 Aug20 Jul01 Apr21 (deaton willi)MENESES MARCOS 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  TEA'S DREAM Nov25 Jun30 May06 Apr26 Apr08 (wasiluk peter )ALLEN D 124 20.00    
7  PARTY DREAM Aug03 Jul08 May06 Apr30 Mar04 (barbazonii)ALONSO LUIS 121 5.00    
8  LARNED GAZE Nov25 Jun30       (chavez a)VILLA-GOMEZ H 124 8.00 ★    
9  E M'S TREASUREGIRL Nov25 Jun30 May05 Apr19 Mar10 (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 124 1.80 48% 1.10    
10  ITRIEDSELLINGHER May05 Apr22 Apr05 Mar17   (o'connell kat)SOSA LAUREANO 114 15.00    
SCR  RAPID MISS TAPIT Nov25 Oct26 Aug26 Aug04 Jul20 (werneth rober)FUENTES MARIO 121 8.00    
SCR  BOLT OF PARADISE Nov05 Aug19 Jul29 Jun30 Jun11 (crook-dema)SANCHEZ J 121 3.00    
SCR  DESTIN FOR DRAMA Oct23 Jul04 Jun10     (hayford jenni)FUENTES MARIO 121 20.00    
SCR  OKAY FINE Nov17 Oct27 Aug28 Jul31 May13 (moubarak nader)CENTENO E 121 2.50    
 
TAM-4   12/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CITI CREEK Nov29 Oct27 Oct14 Sep28 Aug30 (sillaman richar)GOMEZ KEVIN 118 30.00    
SCR  GRAND ROCK Nov18 Oct14 Sep16 Aug25 Jul08 (barboza vict)MENESES MARCOS 118 10.00    
3  COLLECT REDEMPTION Nov24 Oct25 Oct04 Aug23 Mar04 (sepulveda carl)HIRALDO JOHN 118 12.00    
4  O ROMEO Nov21 Nov01 Oct05 Sep25 Aug24 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 118 6.00 21% 3.70    
5  SHASTREE Nov29 Nov05 Oct14 Aug25 Jul15 (pompay terri)IORIO MELISSA 113 12.00    
6  SLIM MAN Oct21 Sep02 Mar12 Feb16 Jan18 (hernandez sand)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.50 17% 5.00    
7  JACKSON STRONG Aug03 Jul12 Jun01 May05 Apr19 (o'connell kathle)FERRER C 120 12.00    
SCR  SIMPSON BAY Nov25 Nov01 Sep29 Sep15 Jul23 (robertson m)VILLASMIL EDGAR 122 5.00    
9  FREEDOM ROAD Nov24 Oct08 Aug05 Jul16 Jun21 (sacco gregory)SOSA LAUREANO 111 2.50 36% 1.80    
10  MIDNIGHT GETAWAY Nov29 Nov17 Nov05 Oct13 Sep02 (d'angelo)GALLARDO A 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HESTON Nov29 Oct07 Sep27 May26 May04 (engler jeff)ALLEN D 120 15.00    
12  LEOPARDI Sep15 Sep02 Aug25 Jun24 May27 (guciardo kathy)MARIN SAMUEL 120 20.00    
SCR  RUNANDHIDE WIND Nov17 Jul31 Jun26 Aug03 Jul13 (ramirez jose)ARROYO S 120 15.00    
 
TAM-5   12/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($29.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:41
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ADMIRAL'S WAVE Oct12 Sep02 Aug02 Jul14 Jun09 (mcgoey m)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 121 15.00    
2  INDY LYON Aug27 Jun11 May14 Apr07 Mar19 (crichton rohan)CAMACHO SAMY 121 2.50 ★    
3  SIR SAFFER Aug13 Jul07 May27 Apr29 Mar26 (o'connell kath)CASTANON L 121 4.00    
SCR  SINFUL DANCER Nov10 Oct29 Apr15 Dec04 Nov13 (figueroa david )CENTENO E 121 20.00    
5  GROUNDED Oct16 Sep26 Aug22 Jul25 Jun07 (hamm timothy)SOSA LAUREANO 116 1.80 64% 0.60    
6  GET EVEN Dec01 Oct10 Oct02 Sep13 Aug29 (allen lisa)ALLEN M 121 12.00    
7  EPIC LUCK Oct16 Oct05 Sep07 Sep01 Aug07 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 121 20.00    
8  LIGHT FURY Sep04 Aug10 Jul23 May14 Apr09 (crichton roh)BATISTA A 121 8.00 ★    
9  UNCAPTURED STAR Dec01 Oct28 Oct01 Sep08 Jul14 (dobber arnou)MENESES MARCOS 118 30.00    
10  THE PENINSULA Sep09 Aug06 Jul22 Jul07 May29 (rodrigue)GALLARDO A 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
11  SMITHWICK'S SPICE Dec02 Nov03 Sep04 Aug23 Jul30 (nunn douglas)CENTENO E 121 3.50 12% 7.30    
SCR  FACE VALUE Oct10 Sep12 Jul18 Jun22 May30 (orantes r)LOPEZ E 118 20.00    
SCR  HARROW Apr16 Apr05 Mar08 Jan27 Jan08 (hamm timoth)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 121 2.00    
 
TAM-6   12/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  D'ORO BABY Nov02 Oct05 Aug18 Aug04 Jul15 (ochoa gerard)ARROYO S 118 15.00    
2  BELLA ROMANCE Nov24 Jul01 May13 Apr28 Apr07 (mcgoey monica)CEDENO CAROL 120 8.00 ★    
3  DAHGO Oct06 Aug13 Jun03 Mar25 Mar10 (cudworth paul)LOPEZ E 120 30.00    
4  CALISUE Dec08 Nov22 Feb24 Feb12 Jan21 (sacco)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 4.00 ★    
5  ZIPPY ZINNY Oct06 Sep04 Aug18 Jul30 Jul09 (dini mike)IORIO MELISSA 111 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  NUCCI Jul14 Jun17 Apr20 Jan20 Jan12 (sepulveda c)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 118 8.00    
7  ARMONIA Nov24 Jul08 Jun10 May21 Apr23 (suarez wlaima)SOSA LAUREANO 111 8.00    
8  KILLARGUE'S GIRL Nov24 Oct06 Sep09 Jul01 Jun04 (miranda lu)ALONSO LUIS 120 8.00    
9  MARTINI'S AMICA Aug26 Jul23 Jul08 Jun24 Jun02 (amado enrique)CAMACHO SAMY 120 6.00 7% 13.70    
10  C C'S FREEDOM Aug18 Jul15 Jun04 May05 Mar22 (russo anthon)MENESES MARCOS 120 20.00    
11  R D BLESSING Dec09 Nov24 Jul01 Apr22 Apr15 (drake rob)VARGAS A 120 30.00    
12  SHUT IT CALI Nov24 Sep06 Aug18 May31 May03 (bowersoc)GALLARDO A 118 2.50 65% 0.50    
SCR  SWEET SENSATION Dec08 Sep08 Aug20 Aug09 Jul10 (seyler dougla)SANTOS ADEMAR 120 15.00    
 
TAM-7   12/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($32K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHARMED WAY Oct20 Sep29 Aug30 Jul15 May24 (cibelli jane)CAMACHO SAMY 121 4.00 5% 19.00    
2  MIRANDA'S ROCKY Nov24 Oct04 Aug22 Jul22 Jun18 (orseno joseph )MARIN SAMUEL 116 15.00    
3  WORLD TRAVELER Nov24 Sep04 Aug16 Jul28 Jul02 (sacco gregory )CASTANON L 119 5.00 10% 9.30    
4  TOOLCAT Nov24 Oct24 Oct05 Sep18 Aug23 (potts g)VILLA-GOMEZ H 123 4.50 10% 8.60    
5  BOTH SIDES Nov25 Oct28 Sep30 Sep09 Apr15 (vinson j)GALLARDO A 116 12.00    
6  KETTLE KISS Nov16 Oct23 Sep22 Sep04 Aug10 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 116 30.00    
7  GYPSY REWARD Nov04 Sep03 Aug12 Jul20 Jun28 (robertson m)VILLASMIL EDGAR 119 15.00    
8  EIDIKOS (GB) Sep16 Aug13 Jul14 Jun02 May02 (motion g)SANCHEZ J 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
9  FROSTY O TOOLE Oct27 Oct04 Aug12 Jun09 Apr08 (dini mike)CEDENO CAROL 116 6.00    
10  PAPER MANSION Oct29 Oct12 Sep29 Aug29 Jul30 (ness jamie)GOMEZ KEVIN 119 6.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  ADIOS BABY Sep22 Aug27 May18 Apr14 Mar11 (vinson g)FERRER C 119 4.00    
SCR  MOLLY'S ANGEL Nov24 Sep09 Aug12 Jul29 Jul15 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 119 3.00    
SCR  STYLE Nov25 Oct19 Aug24 Aug03 Jul13 (campbell joel)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 10.00    
SCR  SENSITIVITY Nov25 Jul23 May27 Jan15 Dec07 (d'angelo j)SANCHEZ J 123 8.00    
 
TAM-8   12/15/2023 5400ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($16K) Purse ($53K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOE'S HAD ENOUGH Nov08 Jun06 Apr01 Feb26 Feb17 (granitz anthony )FERRER C 118 12.00    
2  CONSPIRACY FACT Dec01 Nov03 Sep20 Sep07 Jul19 (arriagada ju)BATISTA A 121 2.50 35% 1.90    
3  MALIBU MIKE Mar04 Feb03 Jan13 Dec16 Oct08 (dobber arnou)MENESES MARCOS 121 12.00 19% 4.30    
4  ARIES REIGNS Oct15 Aug06 Jul12 Jun25 May29 (rarick lynn)SOSA LAUREANO 114 20.00    
5  BIG LOUIE Nov22 Oct12 Sep21 Sep06 Aug16 (marino g)GONZALEZ HENDERSON 118 15.00    
6  DEEP FAITH Oct20 Sep20 Aug19 Jul19 Jun02 (rigattie)GALLARDO A 123 3.00 25% 3.00    
7  SHERLOCK'S JEWEL Nov08 Sep03 Aug19 Jun03 Apr20 (mcgaughey)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 4.00 ★    
8  COPPERMASTER Nov12 Oct21 Jun11 May14 Apr20 (crichton rohan)CAMACHO SAMY 118 4.50    
9  MR JACK Nov03 Aug18 Jul27 Jul12 Jun02 (sepulveda ca)ARROYO S 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
TAM-9   12/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($32K) Purse ($24K) 2 F PT- 4:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOVEYS EMBRACE Oct06 Sep22 Sep03 Aug13   (o'con)DIAZ RAFAEL 119 2.50 35% 1.80    
2  SISTER SERENDIPITY Nov10         (barbazonii)ALONSO LUIS 119 4.50    
3  ALTHENA Dec02 Oct14 Sep17 Aug30 Aug13 (paragallo jen)SOSA LAUREANO 112 12.00    
4  ESTRELLA KIARA Sep16         (avila c)MORELOS E 119 8.00    
5  MOBINAH Sep07         (parra hernan)ARROYO S 119 30.00    
SCR  RAPID RUBY Sep01 Aug02 Jul13 Jun10   (rigattieri john)CENTENO E 119 8.00    
7  TINS Sep08         (ochoa gerar)ORTIZ A 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
8  SUMMER FLOWER Dec02 Sep16 Aug27     (dini mike)CAMACHO SAMY 119 4.00    
9  DISCREETS PRINCESS         (chavez a)SANTOS ADEMAR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  SHAMU Sep15         (dini mike)MARIN SAMUEL 119 6.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  QUEEN AIKO Nov12 Oct28 Oct15 Aug17 Jul22 (laurato mich)MENESES MARCOS 119 15.00    
SCR  VAI GATTINA Dec02 Nov12 Sep20     (pickett cry)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 119 15.00    
13  WITH FEELING (GB) Dec02 Oct25 Oct10     (rice kev)GALLARDO A 119 3.50 12% 7.40    
SCR  SHE'S SO SEXY Dec02 Sep15       (sacco gregory )CAMACHO SAMY 119 3.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.