Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - May 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/7)-(2/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/7)-(2/1/7)-(2/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/7)-(5/7/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/7)-(5/7/4/2)-(7/6/8/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/7/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/4/2)-(5/7/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/4/2)-(5/7/4/2)-(5/7/4/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/7/4/2)-(7/6/8/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/7/4/2)-(7/6/8/3)-(3/2/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/6/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/8/3)-(7/6/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/8/3)-(7/6/8/3)-(7/6/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/8/3)-(3/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/8/3)-(3/2/6)-(8/4/2/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(8/4/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6)-(8/4/2/6)-(11/12/2/4/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (8/4/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/2/6)-(8/4/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/2/6)-(8/4/2/6)-(8/4/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/2/6)-(11/12/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/4/2/6)-(11/12/2/4/5)-(5/2/1/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (11/12/2/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/12/2/4/5)-(11/12/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/12/2/4/5)-(11/12/2/4/5)-(11/12/2/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/12/2/4/5)-(5/2/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (11/12/2/4/5)-(5/2/1/4)-(6/9/1/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/2/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/1/4)-(5/2/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/1/4)-(5/2/1/4)-(5/2/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/1/4)-(6/9/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/2/1/4)-(6/9/1/3)-(8/2/5/11/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/9/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/1/3)-(6/9/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/1/3)-(6/9/1/3)-(6/9/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/9/1/3)-(8/2/5/11/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (8/2/5/11/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/2/5/11/6)-(8/2/5/11/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/2/5/11/6)-(8/2/5/11/6)-(8/2/5/11/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STANLEY MARKET Dec18 Nov03 Sep18 Jul01 Jun11 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.50 21% 3.80    
2  STOPSHOPPINGAMY Apr30 Apr09 Mar23 Dec18 Nov25 (hernandez a)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00 35% 1.90    
3  LA TOURISTA May18 Apr22 Apr13 Mar17 Feb16 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50    
4  DUPLICITOUS May10 Apr08 Jan28 Nov03 Oct14 (ortiz a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
SCR  GIANNA'S GIFT Mar25 Feb12 Jan13 Dec16 Nov16 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 4.00    
6  MISS MOON PIE May06 Mar17 Jul07 Jun21 May13 (beck row)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00    
7  OWEN'S PLEASURE Apr29 Dec09 Nov11 Oct22 Sep25 (martinez r)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00 16% 5.20    
 
CD-2   05/28/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCELY May13 Apr19 Mar19 Nov12 Sep28 (mcpeek ke)TORRES A 118 8.00    
2  AMERICAN ICON May21 May13 May03 Apr21 Feb24 (vasquez sr)COURT K 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  O P FIRECRACKER Apr28 Nov19 Oct01 Jul02 Jun09 (medina rober)GEROUX FLORENT 124 6.00    
4  APOLLO RISING Apr21 Oct26 Sep24     (mcgee paul)BEJARANO R 124 10.00 9% 10.40    
5  CONSTITUTIONAL LAW Feb21 Dec23 Dec04 Oct20 Sep24 (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.50 40% 1.50    
6  DOG RED Apr26 Feb03 Dec28 Nov23   (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00    
7  CHILENO Apr19 Mar11 Feb10 Aug20 Jul09 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 124 3.00 23% 3.30    
8  NEIGHBOR Apr29 Apr08 Mar18 Feb18   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00    
 
CD-3   05/28/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MY BOY TONY Apr08 Mar10       (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of BOLD CONTENDER by STRONG CONTENDER)
SCR  PITAGORE May20         (engler je)TORRES A 125 12.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of PITAMAKAN by DANZIG)
3  ACCIDENT Apr08 Mar04 Feb10 Jan21 Jan07 (short th)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00 10% 9.20    
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of NOT JAVA by NOT BOURBON)
4  SURFACE TO AIR Apr28 Jan20 Nov19 Oct21   (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of SHEMAZON by CONGRATS)
5  BERRETTINI Apr20 Sep03       (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  CURLINS INCHARGE May04 Mar31 Feb18 Jan07 Nov26 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 17% 5.00    
  (by CURLIN out of SWEEPING PADDY by PADDY O'PRADO)
7  SOYBEAN MAN May06 Apr15 Mar18 Dec31   (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 30% 2.30    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of MARTZ by SCAT DADDY)
8  LINCOLN HIGHWAY Apr08         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 15% 5.80    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of FRIVOLOUS by FOOLISH PLEASURE)
9  QAADER Apr27 Mar25 Feb16 Jan25 Dec31 (trujillo elvis)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 20.00    
  (by NIGHT OF THUNDER out of REDINHA by DANSILI (GB))
SCR  MILLERS RITE May05 Apr08 Dec31 Dec10 Oct30 (vance thom)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of ROMANTIC FROLIC by VINDICATION)
11  ARCHIE THE GIZA May04         (medina rober)GEROUX FLORENT 125 8.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of GLORIA S by TAPIT)
SCR  GETTLEMAN Apr27 Mar19       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ESTELLE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  GAME WARDEN May02 Feb26 Jan14 Oct15 Oct01 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
  (by TAPIT out of GLORY AND POWER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
CD-4   05/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LAZARUS May11 Apr21 Mar10     (cundiff waylon)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
2  GOLD LUCK May20 Apr26 Mar09 Feb10 Dec28 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00 24% 3.20    
3  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Apr26 Mar12 Jan29 Dec18 Nov23 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 4.00 44% 1.30    
SCR  MISSIN CURFEW Apr28 Apr07 Mar12 Jan15 Jun26 (diodoro r)TORRES A 120 3.50    
5  HUMOR ME NOW Apr30 Mar23       (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 6.00    
6  MAMA'S GOLD Apr27 Mar11 Mar05 Jan21 Nov26 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 8% 11.60    
7  EDDIE M May03 Nov19 Oct21     (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.50    
 
CD-5   05/28/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO TOWN MAYHEM Apr01         (casse mar)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of TOWN TOUR by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  UNDER ADVISEMENT Apr21         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 11% 7.80    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of WALTZINGINTHERAIN by TIZWAY)
3  CALL AGAIN         (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
4  FAST N HAPPY Apr27 Mar25 Feb15     (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 27% 2.70    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ONE FAST FROG by FIRST SAMURAI)
5  HAPPY AM I May02         (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CAT DANCE by TOM CAT)
6  UNCORKED (AUS) May27         (wong jonathan)MACHADO LUAN 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PIERRO out of PIAF by PROUD BIRDIE)
7  ABSINTHE         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SHINING STRIKE by SMART STRIKE)
8  PUMPKIN SCONE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 40% 1.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of EMBELLISH THE LACE by SUPER SAVER)
 
CD-6   05/28/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LAURA'S CHARM Jan13 Dec22 Nov19 Oct13 Aug27 (kerrick lacy)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 30.00    
2  LINGUISTIC Apr07 Feb03 Oct06 Sep19 Aug29 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 10% 9.30    
3  QUICK MUNNY Apr29 Jan14 Dec17 Aug19 Jul16 (hartman chr)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 8.00    
4  ATLANTIC STRIKE Apr29 Mar30 Mar04 Jan12 Oct02 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00 8% 11.80    
5  FROZEN SOLID Apr29 Apr07 Feb15 Jan06 Mar13 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  SUNDAY GRACE Sep13 Jul09 May14 May04 Mar05 (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 121 30.00    
7  BOUDOIR BURLESQUE May12 Apr16 Mar28 Mar16 Aug09 (decker anna)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 30.00    
8  MADRILENA (ARG) Apr29 Mar16 Nov17 Sep13 Jul09 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 121 5.00    
9  MARGIE'S KITCHEN May05 Mar26 Aug22 Jul19 Jun12 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
10  AWESOME LAWSON Apr29 Apr07 Mar09 Feb16 Jan25 (vesty clark)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 30.00    
11  KAUFYMAKER Apr07 Oct16       (ward a)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 32% 2.10    
12  DARING DO Apr20 Mar02 Jan18     (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 113 3.50 29% 2.40    
SCR  ALARM CLOCK Apr13 Mar25 Feb10 Jan21 Dec11 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00    
SCR  ROCK STAR PARKING Jan14 Jan01 Dec21 Nov30 Nov02 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 4.00    
 
CD-7   05/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 3 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZAMBEZI May05 Apr01       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 14% 6.30    
2  BOHEMIAN BO May06 Apr08 Mar12 Feb26   (vance tho)TORRES A 122 3.50 30% 2.40    
3  LARK'S MISCHIEF Apr08 Mar03 Jan21 Dec10 Nov19 (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 6.00    
4  MIDNIGHT TAXES May06 Apr08 Mar11 Feb25 Dec31 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  DEER DISTRICT May06 Apr08 Nov26 Oct09 Sep14 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 2.50 32% 2.20    
6  STORM DADDY May15 Apr16 Mar09 Feb11 Dec09 (gonza)ULLOA PATRICIO 118 15.00    
7  STUD LOVIN May06 Sep08 Aug12     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
 
CD-8   05/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  FLOKI'S FLIGHT May13 Mar30 Jan07 Nov27 Nov09 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 4.00 14% 6.20    
SCR  MOBSTER GUN May13 Apr23 May12 Apr15 Feb16 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 4.00    
2  HIGHWAY ROBBER Nov26 Sep23       (lynch bri)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 15.00    
3  MIACOMET Apr26 Feb11 Jan08 Dec16 Nov24 (shirer mat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 6.00 11% 8.10    
4  YORK TAVERN Apr15 Mar04 Jan25 Dec17 Nov03 (devaux c)SANTANA JR 124 12.00    
5  COUSIN LARRY May11 Mar26 Feb25 Jan19 Nov06 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00    
6  GRAPHIC DETAIL Apr15 Mar10 Feb03 Dec29 Dec02 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 124 3.50 28% 2.60    
7  DEBATE Apr28 Jan08 Nov27     (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 124 10.00    
SCR  BEN DIESEL Apr08 Mar11 Feb24 Jan28 Jan07 (lukas w)TORRES A 124 6.00    
9  BAD TO THE BONES May03 Sep03 Aug07 Jul09 Jun10 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00 25% 2.90    
 
CD-9   05/28/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIREBALL FUN May14         (stall m)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of BARBECCA by CAPE BLANCO (IRE))
2  KING CURLIN Apr27 Mar25 Dec31 Dec03   (vanden britt)EMIGH A 125 3.50 32% 2.10    
  (by CURLIN out of BLINGISMYTHING by ARCH)
3  AMERICAN ONLY Apr20         (medina ro)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of ONLY BY THE NIGHT by TALE OF THE CAT)
4  OSCARGOT         (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of WINE AND DYNE by DYNAFORMER)
5  QUALITY CHIC May06 Apr22 Apr01 Mar11 Feb24 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 8% 11.60    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CHICA BOOM CHIC by TAPIT)
6  QUALIFIED May04 Feb25 Sep13     (mott riley)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of LIL INDY by BUCKLEY BOY)
SCR  MIRACLE ON ICE Apr27 Mar25 Feb16 Jan25 Nov30 (hughes g)BEJARANO R 125 12.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of MAGICAL VICTORY by VICTORY GALLOP)
8  DECANTED Apr08 Feb10 Nov18 Oct16 Sep14 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 34% 1.90    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of KAHRUMANA by SHAMARDAL)
9  SELF RULE May11 Feb16 Jan25 Dec31 Nov30 (preston rand)CALLEJA ANDRES 115 20.00    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of TEMPERENCE GIFT by KINGMAMBO)
10  RUNNINGFORJOY Apr28         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 20.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of JOY FILLED by PULPIT)
11  TRULY QUALITY May17         (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00 5% 18.20    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of TRULY TOGETHER by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  ANDY CANT Apr22 Mar02 Jan07 Dec16 Nov13 (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of WHISKED AWAY by VICTORY GALLOP)
SCR  HARBOUR BRIDGE May06 Mar25       (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50    
  (by JUSTIFY out of TIGER MOTH by STREET SENSE)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.