Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Wednesday - May 03, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-2   Win (8/11/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-3   Win (8/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-4   Win (3/8/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-5   Win (1/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-6   Win (10/11/2/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-7   Win (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-8   Win (1/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-9   Win (8/4/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-10   Win (7/1/3/4/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   05/03/2023 6600ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 4UP ALL PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CURRENT Feb04 Dec11 Nov18 Oct15 Sep10 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 118 10.00 16% 5.40    
LOCALLY OWNED Mar25 Feb19 Jan20 Dec11 Nov12 (morley thom)LEPAROUX R 120 1.40 33% 2.00    
SCR  CODE RUNNER Mar10 Jan20 Dec03 Oct09   (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
ALLEGE Mar19 Aug01 Jun16 May07 Apr23 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 28% 2.60    
SILVER DUST Mar26 Feb17 Jan07 Dec17 Nov24 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 3.50    
KISSALOT Apr01 Mar04 Jan13 Dec23 Oct22 (wong jonathan)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00    
 
CD-2   05/03/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:15
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRINCE OF POWER Apr20 Apr07       (vosler eugene )WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 15.00    
SCR  LAUGH NOW Apr27         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 15.00    
MI OSCURO SECRETO         (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00    
FAVORITISM         (mendez luis)MALDONADO E 119 15.00    
SCR  LIL ANTHONY         (mendez luis)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
SUGA STEVE         (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
VITEMENT         (hancock john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
SONOFASHIP Apr13         (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 1.60 36% 1.80    
BEAUDACIOUS COLTON Apr07         (hancock ja)RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00    
10  LOUDERMILK Apr20         (walden william)VAZQUEZ A 119 6.00 6% 15.60    
11  LET'S GO MARK Apr13         (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 34% 2.00    
 
CD-3   05/03/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THAT KHENNY Apr25 Mar16 Feb17 Jan14 Dec18 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50    
BAJAN RUM Apr01 Mar09 Feb22 Feb09 Nov03 (spicer t)BECKMAN ALICE 111 12.00    
GO FOR SHERRIE Nov16 Oct27 Sep26 Aug31 Jul13 (manley stev)LEPAROUX R 118 5.00    
PEEKACHO Apr08 Jan20 Jan08 Nov12 Oct21 (vance r)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
CO CONSPIRATOR Mar10 Feb21 Jan12 Dec19 Nov12 (hartman chris)LANERIE J 118 4.50    
MY REDEMPTION Feb08 Jan30 Dec11 Nov20 Nov11 (smith larry)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 4.00 33% 2.00    
BLUEBERRY Apr01 Mar17 Feb24 Jan27 Dec09 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 5.00    
HERD IMMUNITY Mar24 Mar03 Jan15 Dec16 Jul23 (barkley jason)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 42% 1.40    
 
CD-4   05/03/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:15
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS Apr12         (o'connor r)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
AUNT NELDA Mar23 Feb08       (devaux cheri)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 10.00    
WARDEYA Feb12         (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 125 3.00 35% 1.80    
SUPER COOL STORM Mar09 Jan12 Oct28     (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 20.00    
HOLY FOLEY Apr01 Feb16 Nov10 Sep10 Aug20 (lynch brian)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
LE LEVRE (IRE)         (stall m)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 12.00    
WHAT'S TO DO Nov10 Oct10 Sep14 Jul23 Jun30 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 12.00    
GLORIA'S PRINCESS Apr01         (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 24% 3.10    
HECKLED Apr07 Feb26       (stidham mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
10  BLESSING THE FLAG Mar23 Feb25 Jan28 Nov03 Sep05 (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 125 10.00 18% 4.50    
11  BEST PERFORMER Apr07 Feb23 Jan16 Dec09 Oct16 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
SCR  LA VOIE         (hamilton sarah)GILLIGAN JACK 118 20.00    
13  EMPATHY         (abreu r)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00    
SCR  STARTERS ORDERS Mar04         (mcgaughey ii)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
SCR  MYSTIC PLEASURE Mar31         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
SCR  SWEET TROUBLE Apr07 Mar03 Jan28 Jan06 Dec02 (d'amato philip)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.00    
 
CD-5   05/03/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TOWING Nov12 Oct19       (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 123 2.50 36% 1.80    
ROAN FOR THE ROSE Apr18 Mar23 Mar11 Feb04 Jan19 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 123 6.00 6% 17.00    
MULTI PLATINUM Apr18 Mar11 Feb26 Jan15 Dec23 (santamaria ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 6.00    
LOOT THE MOON Feb18 Dec31 Nov19 Feb11   (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 123 8.00    
GOT THE BOB Feb10 Jan11       (gonzalez rein)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00    
MASTER LEA Feb18 Feb03 Jan12 Dec17 Oct26 (bahena isma)HERNANDEZ J 123 20.00    
LEMON DROP SHOT Mar31 Mar17 Feb18 Jan27 Dec16 (wong jonathan)VAZQUEZ A 123 3.00 34% 1.90    
SCR  BRONZE BEAST Jan19 Dec29 Dec07 Nov11 Oct02 (rouck l)RIQUELME J 123 12.00    
SWISS GUARD Apr20 Mar19 Jan07 Dec09 Nov13 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 118 5.00    
 
CD-6   05/03/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:16
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  QUEEN TAPITURE Apr06 Feb23 Feb09 Jan18 Dec29 (cash l)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
CHARLEY RUDE Mar11 Feb08 Dec17 Nov09 Jun24 (mccarthy micha)GEROUX FLORENT 123 3.00 11% 8.50    
BIG JAVA Mar25 Feb26 Feb12 Jan15 Nov09 (lauer michael)SAEZ LUIS 123 8.00    
KILMOREY Mar30 Mar09 Feb09 Jan05 Dec03 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 118 15.00    
MS HAYLEY Apr08 Mar11 Feb19 Jan27 Nov10 (hiles rick)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
MAGNA MASSA Apr02 Mar09 Sep30 Aug09   (irion heather)ARRIETA REYNIER 118 20.00    
AZUL TEQUILA Apr08 Mar09 Dec29     (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 123 12.00    
BALL GOWN Mar29 Feb01 Jan18 Nov23 Oct19 (romans dale)LANERIE J 123 12.00    
PROUD FOOT Apr08 Mar11 Feb26 Jun18 Jun04 (schultz lin)LEPAROUX R 123 8.00 7% 12.80    
10  ELLE OF THE BALL Mar31 Dec31 Nov25 Nov03 Jun22 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.50 32% 2.20    
11  TWIRLING PATTI Feb15 Aug07 Jun02 Mar24 Feb24 (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 4.00 28% 2.60    
 
CD-7   05/03/2023 4950ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:47
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BAD TO THE BONES Sep03 Aug07 Jul09 Jun10 May21 (mott i)ORTIZ JR 123 6.00    
ZIPPIN GIGI Mar22 Feb21 Jan26 Nov25 Nov02 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 123 4.50 16% 5.50    
ANGKOR Mar25 Feb24 Dec18 Nov25 Oct14 (bauer a)BEJARANO R 123 3.00 49% 1.10    
TIM TAL Apr13 Mar11 Feb11 Jan14 Jun24 (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 125 6.00    
SPARTAN ARMY Feb21 Dec29 Nov25 Nov04 Sep22 (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 8.00    
PATIENT CAPITAL Apr13 Mar11 Feb11 Jan14 Dec18 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.50 10% 8.90    
AMERICAN ICON Apr21 Feb24 Feb03 Jan27 Dec31 (vasquez sr)NAVAS YOEL 113 50.00    
GREYS THE BOY Mar22 Jan26 Dec19 Oct22 Sep13 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 5.00    
 
CD-8   05/03/2023 7920ft DIRT RC11 FAST Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnigh Purse ($175K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:19
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LONE ROCK Apr02 Jul28 Jun11 May03 Apr03 (diodoro robertino)VAZQUEZ A 118 2.50 36% 1.80    
DECISION MAKER Mar26 Mar04 Jan21 Nov12 Oct23 (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00    
CALIBRATE Apr02 Mar13 Jan29 Jan07 Nov20 (rosin coty )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
SCR  SCARLET FUSION Jan28 Dec17 Nov02 Sep30 Aug13 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.00    
RED RUN Apr07 Mar12 Sep05 Jul30 Jul02 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00    
WARRANT Apr02 Mar04 Jan26 Jul09 Jun11 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 10.00 19% 4.20    
NEXT Nov04 Sep08 Jul16 May20 Apr16 (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 123 1.60 24% 3.20    
 
CD-9   05/03/2023 3630ft TURF RC11 FIRM Mamzelle Overnight Purse ($225K) 3 F PT- 4:52
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ANNA'S ARABESQUE Mar08         (bauer a)GEROUX FLORENT 118 30.00    
SCR  ACCOMPLISHED GIRL Apr14 Mar18 Jan08     (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
SASSY NATURE Apr14 Mar25 Mar01 Jan27 Jan07 (mendez luis)MALDONADO E 120 8.00 10% 8.70    
LADY HOLLYWOOD (GB) Apr14 Nov04       (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 122 2.00 26% 2.80    
DANSE MACABRE Mar04 Oct08 Sep13 Aug21 Jul13 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00    
B G WARRIOR Apr01 Mar04 Feb11 Jan26 Dec31 (kahles ronald)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 15.00    
PEACOCK LASS Apr07 Nov27 Oct30 Sep17 Aug07 (brisset rodolphe)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 20.00    
SHOOTOUTTHELIGHTS Apr02         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 118 2.50 31% 2.20    
MY SWEET AFFAIR Apr14 Mar05       (weaver george)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 11% 8.20    
10  AMERICAN APPLE Apr14 Nov04 Oct08 Sep14 Jul15 (leitch danie)CORRALES GERARDO 122 20.00    
 
CD-10   05/03/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RATE CONFIRMATION Mar24 Mar11 Jan20 Dec26 Nov17 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 29% 2.40    
SCR  WHEN I GET PAID         (hamilton sarah)NAVAS YOEL 108 15.00    
POWER ALLEY Apr13 Mar24 Jan20     (forster grant)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00 8% 11.20    
FOREVER COOL Apr14 Mar11       (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50 7% 13.50    
GOLDEN REIGN Dec09 Nov03 Sep23 Jul30   (toye li)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
BROKENHEARTED Apr14 Mar17 Feb11     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 124 5.00    
RIVOLI Apr14 Feb24 Nov03 Sep22 Aug30 (west w)ACHARD ALEX 118 4.50 29% 2.40    
SCR  OFFICER QUIGLEY         (stall m)LANERIE J 124 15.00    
AIR KENNEY Aug06         (meah m)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
10  EDDIE M Nov19 Oct21       (walsh p)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00    
11  PAPA D L Mar24         (forster gra)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
12  MOONOVERMONTGOMERY         (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.