Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Wednesday - April 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (3/4/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/2/1)-(3/4/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/2/1)-(3/4/2/1)-(3/4/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/4/2/1)-(12/2/1/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/4/2/1)-(12/2/1/10)-(3/5/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-2   WIN (12/2/1/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (12/2/1/10)-(12/2/1/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (12/2/1/10)-(12/2/1/10)-(12/2/1/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (12/2/1/10)-(3/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (12/2/1/10)-(3/5/4)-(6/1/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-3   WIN (3/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/4)-(3/5/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/5/4)-(3/5/4/6)-(3/5/4/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/5/4)-(6/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/4)-(6/1/5)-(12/8/3/11) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-4   WIN (6/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/5)-(6/1/5/9/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/5)-(6/1/5/9/4)-(6/1/5/9/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/1/5)-(12/8/3/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/1/5)-(12/8/3/11)-(8/9/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-5   WIN (12/8/3/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (12/8/3/11)-(12/8/3/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (12/8/3/11)-(12/8/3/11)-(12/8/3/11) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (12/8/3/11)-(8/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (12/8/3/11)-(8/9/3)-(11/9/6/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-6   WIN (8/9/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/9/3)-(8/9/3/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/9/3)-(8/9/3/7/6)-(8/9/3/7/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/9/3)-(11/9/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/9/3)-(11/9/6/2)-(1/7/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-7   WIN (11/9/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/9/6/2)-(11/9/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (11/9/6/2)-(11/9/6/2)-(11/9/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (11/9/6/2)-(1/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
KEE-8   WIN (1/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/6)-(1/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/6)-(1/7/6)-(1/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/12/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT Mar24 Feb16 Jan19 Dec07 Nov15 (cook b)ROCCO S 118 3.00 5% 18.00    
2  PRINCESS NINA Mar17 Feb16 Jan04 Dec07 Sep22 (cundiff waylo)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 8% 12.00    
3  EDGEE ANGEL Jan04 Nov30 Nov09 Oct13 Sep21 (king barry )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 2.00 32% 2.10    
4  ABITIBI Mar09 Feb23 Feb01 Jan05 Dec21 (esquivel j)CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00 31% 2.20    
5  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI Mar02 Feb15 Jan07 Dec31 Dec11 (gonzalez)RODRIGUEZ A 113 8.00    
6  DOROTA Nov25 Sep17 Aug27 Aug06 Jun29 (wainwright john)MCKEE J 118 15.00    
7  APRIL'S NO FOOL Aug03 Jun23 May09     (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 118 10.00    
8  REVS RUN Nov21 Oct12 Sep21 Aug24 Aug08 (phillips ter)RAMOS D 118 20.00    
 
KEE-2   04/12/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY SWEETHEART DANI         (crooks je)SCAMPTON BRITTANY 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ALLIANCE out of SEDATE by MUNNINGS)
2  UNHEARD         (davis christopher)GRAHAM J 119 3.50 10% 8.90    
  (by STREET BOSS out of TALK SOFTLY by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  MOMBAYLA         (mccutchen ja)MARCANO Y 109 30.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of CALIFORNIA BREEZE by INTO MISCHIEF)
4  NEXT DOT         (hancock a)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of TWO BELOW by HAT TRICK (JPN))
5  MIDNIGHT ANGEL (GER)         (torres a)AYALA ISAIAS 119 30.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of PIKE CREEK by FOREST CAMP)
SCR  BOYNE VALLEY         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of READY FOR FORTUNE by MORE THAN READY)
7  GREENTEAZE         (mendez luis)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00    
  (by FIRING LINE out of FIRST FED BIZ by FED BIZ)
8  JOIA RARA         (caramori edua)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 20.00    
  (by LOST TREASURE out of STEVE'S MANDOLIN by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
9  HAPPY BAYTOWN         (mcentee paul)HEARD TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of TIZASONG by TIZNOW)
10  BOOTSY'S MERLOT         (cash l)BEJARANO R 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of BOOTSY'S HADENOUGH by PAYNTER)
11  HOLLYWOODBOULEVARD         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 10.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of HANA HIGHWAY by QUALITY ROAD)
12  HIBERNACLE         (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.00 22% 3.60    
  (by HOOTENANNY out of SEARCHINGFORAHERO by OFFICER)
SCR  MOURNE MOUNTAINS         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 114 3.00 22% 3.50    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of MISS MAMBO by KINGMAMBO)
SCR  MISS ATHLETIC         (crooks jeffre)CEDILLO MAURO 119 50.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of OVERPREPARED by QUALITY ROAD)
SCR  GREEN CHILE         (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of PERSEVERANTE by STUKA)
16  BAYTOWN KITTY CAT         (mcentee paul)MCENTEE GRACE 119 12.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ELEMENTSOFHARMONY by EXCHANGE RATE)
 
KEE-3   04/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEART HEADED WOMAN         (drury thoma)PETERSON FERRIN 125 15.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of BRILLIANT BLAZE by SEEKING THE GOLD)
2  KIKI KRAZY Mar08 Feb09       (bauer a)COHEN DAVID 118 20.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of AUNT ELS by CONSOLIDATOR)
3  AMARETTI Jun05         (mott i)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 1.00 29% 2.50    
  (by BERNARDINI out of CARAMEL SNAP by SMART STRIKE)
4  THE PRINCESS SAYS Mar16 Mar01       (hartman chris)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 21% 3.90    
  (by COLLECTED out of NAKED EMPRESS by FREUD)
5  KID'S LAST LAUGH Jan21 Dec31 Nov18     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 25% 3.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of KID SILVER by SILVER GHOST)
6  BLAME THE TOLL Mar08 Feb09 Jan22 Dec22   (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 6.00 ★    
  (by BLAME out of TOLL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
7  PREEMPT         (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 125 12.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of CENTRE COURT by SMART STRIKE)
 
KEE-4   04/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($47K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DON'T WAIT UP Jul01 May15 Apr16     (walden willia)ORTIZ JR 124 3.50 30% 2.30    
2  OXWOOD Feb24 Dec16 Oct27 Oct16 Sep27 (woodbury judy)HEARD TYLER 124 30.00    
3  BORN FLAWLESS Feb20 Jan28 Dec09 Nov19 Oct13 (heitzman eric)GRAHAM J 118 30.00    
4  BABY QUINN Jun22 May19 May03     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00 ★    
5  HEADLINE REPORT Jan13 Feb26       (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 119 3.00 11% 8.10    
6  HEARTBREAKER Jun17 May21       (d'amato phi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 2.50 36% 1.80    
7  FRENCH COMPOSER Mar10 Feb12 Jan15 Dec31 Nov24 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 124 12.00    
8  MR. CUNNINGHAM Mar30 Mar10 Feb24 Feb11 Jan28 (meredith ch)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 15.00    
9  COLOR FIELD Feb03 Jan06 Nov27 Oct19 Sep22 (amoss m)LANERIE J 118 8.00 ★    
10  KEEN HEIR Feb26 Jun19 May19 Mar23 Jan22 (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 124 6.00    
 
KEE-5   04/12/2023 5940ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPIN WHEEL Jun04 Apr29 Mar12 Feb05   (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
2  F FIVE Dec23 Nov19       (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
3  JARREAU Sep05 Jul27 Jun18 May22 Apr24 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 5% 18.50    
4  JR'S GIFT Mar02 Feb17 Feb03 Jan20 Dec29 (andrade hugo)MCKEE J 118 30.00    
5  NICHOLAS JONES Mar25 Mar04 Feb08 Dec29 Nov19 (miller f)MOJICA JR 118 30.00    
6  WHAT SAY THEE Mar05 Feb18 Jan01 Nov26 Oct01 (sisterson ja)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
7  SOLID COUNTRY GOLD Mar02 Jan28 Dec22 Dec01 Oct26 (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00    
8  DRIPPING GOLD Mar05 Nov19 Oct21 Sep05 Aug25 (mcgaughey )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 8% 11.10    
9  MAINTAINER Feb17 Jan20 Dec29 Dec02 Apr09 (glyshaw)DE CRUZ 118 20.00    
10  ICONIC ADVENTURE Feb10 Jan20 Feb26     (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 12.00    
11  EXPLOSIVE Mar25 Feb24 Feb09 Jan07 Nov19 (simms j)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
12  POLICY OPTION Mar10 Feb17 Jan20 Jan06 Dec14 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 118 4.50 56% 0.80    
SCR  MAASAI WARRIOR Mar02 Jan22 Jan01 Dec09 Nov13 (leonard georg)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 6% 15.90    
SCR  ALWAYS ABOVE Nov04 Oct09 Sep05 Jul27 Jun18 (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00    
SCR  SAILOR'S RETURN Mar22 Feb20 Feb03 Aug05 Jul23 (habeeb donald)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
SCR  ARABIAN PRINCE Feb03 Jan15 Dec08 Nov16 Oct05 (barnett bobb)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
 
KEE-6   04/12/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($57K) 3 ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ODDSONTONY Mar23 Feb25 Jan21 Dec26   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
2  SOFT PANTS Mar12 Feb12 Jan19 Dec11 Nov09 (sharp joe)ROSARIO JOEL 120 12.00    
3  CHAMBERS BAY Mar17         (glyshaw)DE CRUZ 120 30.00 10% 9.30    
4  HILL OF TARA Mar16 Feb02 Jan15 Nov27 Oct28 (ennis john)MCENTEE GRACE 120 20.00    
5  CAPTAIN JACK Mar19 Feb04       (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00    
6  MONEY RUN Mar16 Feb20 Jan28 Jan08 Dec17 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 120 1.40 ★    
7  STREET SWAGG Mar16 Nov03 Sep21     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 ★    
8  COUNTERSPY Mar12 Feb20 Dec19 Nov26 Sep16 (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.00 52% 0.90    
9  FIGHT FIERCELY Mar12 Feb10 Jan11 Nov17 Sep30 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 11% 8.10    
 
KEE-7   04/12/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TAKE A STAND Mar11 Nov25 Oct21 Sep24 Aug14 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
2  SWEET SERENADE Feb25 Jan26 Oct22 Aug20 Jul23 (attfield ro)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  ONE TIME MO Dec22 Nov06 Oct01 Apr28   (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00    
4  WOOHOO JACKIE BLUE Mar25 Oct20 Aug13 Jul03 May28 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
5  UNDER ONE SKY Mar31 Mar02 Jan20 Dec07 Oct27 (cano jua)RODRIGUEZ A 115 20.00    
6  CHOCTAW BINGO Sep12 Aug16 Jul18 Jun28 Jun09 (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 7% 13.20    
7  BHOMA Mar10 Mar05       (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 118 20.00    
8  SISTER LOU ANN Oct20 Sep13 Jul22 Jun11   (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00    
9  BLISSFUL Feb16 Dec31 Oct13 Jul30 Jun22 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 9% 9.90    
10  MADEMOISELLE NOVA Mar16 Oct29 Sep30 Sep03 Jun11 (hamilton sarah)MACHADO LUAN 118 50.00    
11  FLIRTING BRIDGE (IRE) Oct08 Aug21 Jul12 May29   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.00 46% 1.20    
12  LADY PUCHI Nov25 Oct28 Oct14 Sep06 Aug06 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
SCR  TEXAS MAGIC Mar17 Feb16 Feb01 Jan04 Dec21 (andrade hugo)MCKEE J 118 30.00    
SCR  LOVELY PRINCESS Nov25 Oct27 Oct02 Sep03 Aug14 (mcpeek g)GRAHAM J 118 5.00 13% 6.70    
 
KEE-8   04/12/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($50K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARAMEL CHIP Mar23 Feb25 Jan20 Jan08 Jan01 (d'angelo jose)ORTIZ JR 120 1.20 37% 1.70    
SCR  GORMLEYS GOT GAME Feb21 Jan26 Jan12 Dec18 Nov17 (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 118 20.00    
3  IMPROBABLE STORY Mar14 Feb11 Jan25 Jan18 Nov30 (king barry )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
SCR  CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT Mar18 Feb17 Feb02 Jan18 Dec08 (esquivel j)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00 6% 16.50    
SCR  KEEN ON YOU Mar04 Feb17 Feb03 Jan12 Dec14 (cundiff )RODRIGUEZ A 113 30.00    
6  ELLE'SBIGSEACRET Mar30 Mar02 Feb07 Jan14 Dec14 (shifflett ch)MARCANO Y 108 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  TWO WORLDS Mar16 Feb03 Jan07 Dec17 Oct28 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 120 4.50 22% 3.50    
SCR  VETTORI KIN (BRZ) Mar24 Mar04 Jan25 Dec29 Dec01 (bush s)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00 7% 13.10    
9  TIZ OUR TURN Mar03 Feb17 Jan01 Dec01 Nov08 (bindner walter)SANJUR SANTO 118 20.00    
10  HIGH HEATER Mar04 Jan29 Jan06 Dec17 Nov05 (hess b)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.