Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Saratoga
Thursday - August 08, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

SAR-1   WIN (1/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/6)-(1/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/6)-(1/5/6)-(1/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/6)-(6/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/5/6)-(6/3/1)-(5/3/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
SAR-2   WIN (6/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/1)-(6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/1)-(5/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1)-(5/3/1)-(1/4/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
SAR-3   WIN (5/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/1)-(5/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/1)-(5/3/1)-(5/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/1)-(1/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/3/1)-(1/4/7)-(1/3/5/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
SAR-4   WIN (1/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/7)-(1/4/8/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/4/7)-(1/4/8/7)-(1/4/8/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/4/7)-(1/3/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/7)-(1/3/5/7)-(1/3/7/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
SAR-5   WIN (1/3/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/5/7)-(1/3/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/5/7)-(1/3/5/7)-(1/3/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/5/7)-(1/3/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/3/5/7)-(1/3/7/4)-(6/2/5/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
SAR-6   WIN (1/3/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/7/4)-(1/3/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/7/4)-(1/3/7/4)-(1/3/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/7/4)-(6/2/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/3/7/4)-(6/2/5/1)-(1/5/8/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
SAR-7   WIN (6/2/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/5/1)-(6/2/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/5/1)-(6/2/5/1)-(6/2/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/5/1)-(1/5/8/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5/1)-(1/5/8/7)-(7/5/8/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
SAR-8   WIN (1/5/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/8/7)-(1/5/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/8/7)-(1/5/8/7)-(1/5/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/8/7)-(7/5/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/5/8/7)-(7/5/8/4)-(9/4/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
SAR-9   WIN (7/5/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/8/4)-(7/5/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/8/4)-(7/5/8/4)-(7/5/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/8/4)-(9/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
SAR-10   WIN (9/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/4/8)-(9/4/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/4/8)-(9/4/8)-(9/4/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
SAR-1   08/08/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BLAKELY'S WISH         (david a)ORTIZ L 119 2.00 40% 1.50    
  (by HONEST MISCHIEF out of MY EVERY WISH by LANGFUHR)
SCR  ROUTE SENSATION Jun23         (giddings melan)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.50    
  (by HONEST MISCHIEF out of EXPOSURE by COLONEL JOHN)
LADY WISDOM         (morey william )LUZZI J 119 12.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of MYSELF by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
ENDLESS VOW         (de h)SANTANA JR 119 4.50    
  (by THE FACTOR out of VINDICTIVE WAYS by BROKEN VOW)
BUBBE DEAREST Jul17         (maker michae)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 6.00 21% 3.70    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of PAMMI DEAREST by VERRAZANO)
PRACTICALLY SUMMER Jul17         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CLEAN ELEVEN by OFFICER)
TRAIL OF GOLD Jul17         (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 119 5.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of BENE PISTA by BERNARDINI)
 
SAR-2   08/08/2024 5940ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STOP THE PRESS Jun22 May26 Apr06 Feb03 Jan01 (mcgaughey clau)LEZCANO JOSE 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
PROSPERO (IRE) Jul06 Sep22       (devaux cherie)VELAZQUEZ R 118 4.00    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of POSSET by OASIS DREAM (GB))
LEGITIMIZE Feb14         (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00 31% 2.20    
  (by JUSTIFY out of MISS EXCLUSIVE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
TRULLI WARRIOR Jul14 Jun07       (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00    
  (by CURLIN out of ALBEROBELLO by BERNARDINI)
BADGE OF WAR Jun30 Apr26 Mar01 Nov14 Oct03 (dutrow ri)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 8.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of BROOCH by HALO)
PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (GB) Jul12         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 1.40 36% 1.80    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  AK SAR BEN DERBY Jul22 Jun08 May18 Mar30 Dec08 (ortiz ale)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 12.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of MENSA MEMBER by FLATTER)
SCR  PROTECTIVE Jul14 Jun08 May11 Apr06 Mar10 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 0.50    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of GRACE HALL by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  ELKO COUNTY Jul14 Jun15 Apr27 Apr13 Mar30 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of STRONGER THAN EVER by CONGRATS)
 
SAR-3   08/08/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST John Morrissey Purse ($125K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OCEAN'S RESERVE Jan28 Jan14 Dec16 Dec02 Oct29 (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of A CUT AHEAD by TIZ WONDERFUL)
SHERIFF BIANCO Jun29 Jun09 May02 Nov26 Oct29 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 4.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of SUMMER RULES by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
LIGHT MAN Jul05 May17 Feb29 Jan27 Jul17 (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 118 4.50 29% 2.40    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of SO N SO by FREUD)
FACTUALLY CORRECT Jul26 Jun29 May10 Apr05 Mar02 (rodriguez rudy)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 8.00    
  (by TOURIST out of KACY LAUREN by UTOPIA)
ROTKNEE Jun08 May02 Mar02 Jan28 Dec30 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 126 1.60 37% 1.70    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of IN SPITE OF MAMA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
LOOMS BOLDLY Jun08 May10 Apr05 Aug13 Jun26 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of SEE THE FOREST by FORESTRY)
 
SAR-4   08/08/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 ALL PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EIGHTY WEST Jun23         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 44% 1.30    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of GOLD STANDARD by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
PLAY THE GRAY Jun24         (velazquez danie)CARMOUCHE K 119 12.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of KATS GIRL CALA by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  PROBALE TEN Jul25 Apr17       (chapma)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 15.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of LIFE AT TEN by MALIBU MOON)
FRIDAY SURPRISE Jul23         (st lewis)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 112 1.40 34% 1.90    
  (by KING FOR A DAY out of ROSE AGAIN by CURLIN)
KY ANANSI Jul19         (chich)HERNANDEZ OMAR 119 30.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of PLATONIC LOVE by SAROS (GB))
STORM THE STREETS Jul12         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of STORM THE CHURCH by PULPIT)
TAPWRITS TEMPER Jul12 May24       (potts wayne)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of TROPIC HOLIDAY by SUMMER FRONT)
STRENGTHNGUIDANCE Jul12 Jun30 May31     (sano antoni)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 4.50    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of MAMBO FEVER by STORMIN FEVER)
 
SAR-5   08/08/2024 7260ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($115K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ASPEN GROVE (IRE) Jun07 May03 Mar09 Oct08 Aug05 (sisterson )GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.00 31% 2.30    
SABALENKA Nov24 Oct15 Sep03 Jul15 Jun03 (beckman d)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 10.00    
AVENUE NIEL (IRE) Oct19 Sep22 Jul26     (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 122 6.00 22% 3.50    
LADY EMILY KATHRYN Jun20 Apr14 Feb24 Jan20 Dec17 (joseph saff)ALVARADO JUNIOR 126 15.00    
DREAMING OF MO Jun28 May30 Apr27 Mar23 Feb22 (romans dale)PRAT FLAVIEN 126 8.00 16% 5.10    
BE YOUR BEST (IRE) Jun07 Mar03 Dec26 Nov04 Oct14 (de horaci)ORTIZ JR 122 2.50    
ELLE EST FORTE Jul25 May09 Mar21 Feb22 Jan15 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LUNA MOTH Jun30 Apr30 Apr05 Mar22 Mar09 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 122 1.40    
 
SAR-6   08/08/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
REMATCH         (mcgaughey cla)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 32% 2.20    
  (by THE FACTOR out of REHEAR by CORONADO'S QUEST)
SCR  I'MWISHINGONASTAR         (dini mike)LEZCANO JOSE 119 12.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of MAGICAL FLAIR by DEFRERE)
POP IDOL Jun22         (weaver george)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 2.50 20% 4.10    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of UNSPURNED by LEMON DROP KID)
SOUL SECRET         (terranova john)ROSARIO JOEL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SEEKING THE SOUL out of MY SPECIAL SECRET by MINESHAFT)
RADIO GOO GOO (GB)         (begg j)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 20.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of LOCUST BRIDE by DIXIE CHATTER)
FLIRTING WITH TIME Jul18         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by YORKTON out of ROCKIN ALLI by STONESIDER)
MOONLIGHT PROMISES May16         (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 119 8.00 15% 5.60    
  (by PROMISES FULFILLED out of DYNAZAPER by GHOSTZAPPER)
AND ONE MORE TIME Jun26         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of COMPLICATED by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
MEAN EILEEN         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of EILEEN'S SONG by KITTEN'S JOY)
 
SAR-7   08/08/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STREET VIEW Jul17 Jun16 May05 Apr14 Mar10 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
I'M THINKING Jun30 Apr07 Mar09     (dutrow ric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 21% 3.80    
CLASSY MISCHIEF Jul19 Jun21 Jun06 Sep28 Aug20 (contessa c)VAZQUEZ A 118 20.00    
SCR  ASCENSION (GB) Jul12 Jun16       (martin carlos )ROSARIO JOEL 118 5.00    
CARARRA Jun22 Jun01 Nov11 Oct13 Sep21 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00 5% 17.60    
BOURBON SERENGETI Jun30 Dec17       (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.00 51% 1.00    
SCR  AUTUMN'S TURN Jul21 Jul12 Jun21 Jun02 May18 (contessa c)DAVIS KATIE 118 8.00    
THE TACO LADY Jul17 May18 May04 Mar10 Feb11 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 118 6.00    
CELESTIAL EXPRESS Jun27 Jun01 Apr04 Feb04 Dec30 (seyler)GRISALES DANILO 118 50.00    
 
SAR-8   08/08/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($40K) Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NELSON AVENUE Jul13 May01 Mar09 Jan20 Dec10 (moubarak )DETTORI LANFRANCO 120 4.50 46% 1.20    
SCR  KUNSHAN BRIDGE Jul27 Jul13 Jun07 Mar29 Mar02 (kantarmaci mer)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50    
GOOD JUJU Jul28 Jul05 May16 Feb18 Dec30 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 120 8.00    
SCR  DIDINGER Jul13 Jun12 Apr17 Mar06 Jan30 (reid e)LEZCANO JOSE 118 12.00    
DANGEROUS RIDE Jun09 Apr26 Mar02 Feb11 Jan14 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 12.00    
LARK'S MISCHIEF Jun07 May16 Apr05 Mar10 Nov12 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 118 2.50 15% 5.50    
SCR  RITHM NIC Jul13 Jun22 May24 May04 Apr20 (d'angelo)SANTANA JR 120 6.00    
PIPES AND DRUMS Jun29 May31 Jul02 Jun04 May06 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
LOST IN ROME Jul13 Jun23 May19 Mar29 Feb19 (ibrahim emron)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00 13% 6.90    
RADICAL RIGHT Jun22 May16 Apr21 Mar14 Jan27 (rice linda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.50    
 
SAR-9   08/08/2024 3630ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FANCYPANTS JULIANA Jul28 Jul13 Jun15 May18 Nov03 (donk david)ORTIZ JR 124 6.00    
QUEENS DANCER Jul11 Jun10 May07 Oct03 Sep19 (dixon li)DAVIS A 122 30.00    
SCR  STRICTLY TABOO Jul13 Jun06 Oct26 Jul03 May27 (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 126 2.50    
LATEST EDITION Jun15 Jun05 Oct26 Oct06 Aug12 (morley thomas)VELAZQUEZ R 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
WEEKEND RAGS Jul11 May18 Apr25 Oct26 Sep24 (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 5.00 28% 2.60    
PATRIA Jul18 Jun09 May25 Feb25 Feb08 (salazar )SANTANA JR 122 8.00    
MARCO T. Jun15 May12 May02 Mar29 Nov04 (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.50 34% 2.00    
MZ BIG BUCKS Jul11 May24 Nov16 Aug31 Jul19 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.00 12% 7.40    
BANK ON ANNA Aug02 Jul11 Jun22 May27 Apr19 (kantarmaci mertka)RIDER TBA 122 4.50    
 
SAR-10   08/08/2024 5280ft DIRT RC6 SLOPPY Optional Claiming ($35K) Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DIAMOND STATUS Jun14 May09 Oct28 Sep03 Jul07 (martin c)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 10.00    
KANNON FIRE Jul25 Jun14 May09 Aug02 Jul09 (noda orlando)ROSARIO JOEL 123 10.00    
TURF ROCKET Jul11 Jun08 May17 Mar31 Feb25 (trombetta m)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 4.00    
SWEET DUTCHESS Jul18 May19 Apr20 Mar23 Feb07 (walden wil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.50 8% 11.70    
DREAM CENTRAL May24 Nov09 Oct19 Jun25 May26 (sells rachel)LUZZI J 123 15.00    
SCR  BUSY MORNING Jul21 Jun23 Apr18 Feb28 Feb02 (abreu r)ORTIZ L 123 5.00    
SCR  SIZZLE May19 Mar22 Feb16     (lewis l)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 6.00    
NINJA ABARRIO Jul05 Jun08 Apr19 Mar22 Mar10 (tessore bruno)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00 5% 18.30    
GOATS ON A TREE Jul06 May26 May02 Mar31 Mar03 (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 120 6.00 58% 0.70    
SCR  MORE MANGO Jul19 Jun14 Mar22 Feb19 Nov24 (ferrar)GRISALES DANILO 123 20.00    
SCR  PALMETTO FURY May30 Mar29 Feb02 Jan21   (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
SCR  ROMAN GODDESS Jul18 Jun22 May24 May03 Mar07 (kantarmaci mertka)RIDER TBA 123 5.00    
SCR  OH MY MIA Jun26 Jun04 Apr20 Mar16 Feb13 (amoss m)RIDER TBA 118 4.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.