Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Sunday - December 10, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/6)-(1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/6)-(1/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6)-(1/3/2)-(3/1/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-2   WIN (1/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/2)-(1/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/2)-(1/3/2)-(1/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/2)-(3/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/4/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/2)-(3/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2)-(3/4/2)-(2/1/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-4   WIN (3/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/2)-(3/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/2)-(3/4/2)-(3/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/2)-(2/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/4/2)-(2/1/4)-(8/1/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-5   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/4)-(8/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4)-(8/1/2)-(1/3/6/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-6   WIN (8/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/2)-(8/1/5/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/1/2)-(8/1/5/2)-(8/1/5/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/1/2)-(1/3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/1/2)-(1/3/6/5)-(9/4/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/3/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/6/5)-(9/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/6/5)-(9/4/5)-(6/7/2/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-8   WIN (9/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/4/5)-(9/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/4/5)-(9/4/5)-(9/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/4/5)-(6/7/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-9   WIN (6/7/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/2/8)-(6/7/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/2/8)-(6/7/2/8)-(6/7/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   12/10/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 2 ALL PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUDY RUDY RUDY Nov02 Oct07 Sep14 Aug04   (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 119 1.60 58% 0.70    
1A  WISE CONVERSATION Nov09 Oct01 Sep01 Jul09   (rodriguez rudy )RUIZ ELISEO 111 1.60    
2  RALEIGH ST. CLAIR Nov02         (begg j)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 4.50    
3  NOBLE ONE Nov30 Aug11       (pregman john)HARKIE K 119 8.00    
4  MIGHTY GLORY Oct26 Sep14       (schettino dom)FRANCO MANUEL 119 2.50 11% 8.40    
5  BARONESS BOURBON Oct29 Oct01       (begg bent)DAVIS DYLAN 116 3.50    
6  MAX S Nov10         (chichakly ami)OLVER MADISON 114 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-2   12/10/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHIGEKO Nov26 Oct05 Sep14 Aug16 Jul30 (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 121 1.00 65% 0.50    
2  PROPER GRAMMAR Nov30 Jul28 May12 Nov19 Oct07 (pregman john)HARKIE K 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  SHASI Nov25 Nov03 Oct08 Sep24 Apr08 (donk david)RIVERA R 113 2.50 9% 10.10    
4  JOEY THE FISH Nov26 Oct05 Aug09 Jul30 Jul16 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 3.50    
5  ALTERINA Nov26 Nov03 Aug24 Jun15   (hennig mark)DAVIS KATIE 120 6.00    
6  LEMON TAFFY Nov25 Mar05 Feb15 Feb01 Jan07 (henry)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 20.00    
 
AQU-3   12/10/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH Nov19 Oct19 Sep22 Jan29 Jan15 (barker r)CANCEL ERIC 120 4.00 15% 5.60    
2  SWEET AS SUGAR Nov30 Nov04 Oct19 Sep22 Aug18 (shivma)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  DIAMOND COLLECTOR Nov16 Oct22 Oct08 Sep22 Aug31 (potts wayne)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 2.00 58% 0.70    
4  MADDIE'S SURPRISE Oct31 Oct17 Oct04 Sep20 Sep12 (sells rach)RIVERA R 117 10.00    
5  SIMPLE SUGAR Nov04 Oct19 Sep22 Aug18 Jul09 (giglio gina)LUZZI J 122 12.00    
6  LUNA LOCA Nov30 Nov04 Oct26 Sep24 Aug18 (arenas marcel)OLVER MADISON 115 6.00    
SCR  BOY IS SHE A LADY Oct31 Oct23 Sep20 Aug22 Jul24 (nevin michelle)RUIZ ELISEO 115 1.80    
 
AQU-4   12/10/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SITTIN ON GO Nov12 Oct27 Oct06 Aug19 Jul27 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 123 5.00    
2  MARKET ALERT Nov12 Oct04 Jul23 May27 May14 (baker charlton)DAVIS DYLAN 123 6.00 11% 8.30    
3  TWO THIRTY FIVE Nov12 Oct14 Oct05 Sep21 Aug10 (noda orlando)OLVER MADISON 118 3.00 33% 2.00    
4  GENTLEMAN JOE May04 Apr01 Feb25 Feb10 Dec15 (dutrow richard)LEZCANO JOSE 121 2.50 24% 3.20    
5  ALFIO Nov12 Sep14 Aug13 Aug05 Jul14 (walder r)RUIZ ELISEO 120 10.00    
SCR  FORTY TWO ACE Oct21 Sep21 Jul19 Jun03 May13 (baker charlt)CASTILLO ISAAC 123 12.00    
7  CLASSIC MARK Oct21 Sep21 Aug24 Jul04 May20 (rodriguez gusta)CANCEL ERIC 125 3.00    
 
AQU-5   12/10/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRATELLINO Sep21         (siculietano)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 4.00    
  (by WAR DANCER out of KIMBERLY JEAN by MORE THAN READY)
1A  SHORE TIME Sep14         (siculietano dan)RUIZ ELISEO 114 4.00 28% 2.60    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of CHANTILLY LADY by SHORE BREEZE)
2  LOTSA TROUBLE Nov12         (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 119 1.80 39% 1.60    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of SOLAR SURGE by BERNARDINI)
SCR  CHARLES J Nov16         (lee joseph)DAVIS DYLAN 119 4.50    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of LAUGHING GIRL by CITY ZIP)
4  SEBA M Dec02 Oct19       (kantarmaci me)SILVERA RUBEN 119 2.50 14% 6.30    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of GHOSTING by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  TEMPESTA CREMISI Nov12         (sells rachel)CANCEL ERIC 119 20.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of ALABAMA BOUND by PROUD CITIZEN)
6  OUTTAWATERBURY Nov12         (donk david)DAVIS KATIE 119 15.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of OUTTACYPRESSHILLS by BIG BROWN)
7  AVA'S UNCLE BILLY         (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of AVA K. by DIXIE UNION)
 
AQU-6   12/10/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHAT'S UP BRO Oct19 Oct05 Aug23 Jun17 May29 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.60 9% 10.10    
2  HE'S GOT IT Nov11 Nov02 Sep14 Aug26 Jun02 (abreu jorge)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  M B'S MUNNING Dec01 Nov17 Oct21 Sep17 Aug25 (ferraro james )LUZZI J 120 15.00    
4  PLAYINGWITHMATCHES Nov16 Oct20 Aug03 Jul07 May19 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 4.50    
5  JESTER'S SONG Oct21 Sep22 Aug03 Jun24 May12 (de hor)RIVERA R 117 5.00 ★    
6  ROCK THE WEEKEND Nov11 Oct21 Sep22 Aug10 Jul19 (shivma)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 12.00    
7  MIDNIGHT WORKER Jun18 May13 Apr29 Apr13 Mar26 (chichakly amira)CANCEL ERIC 122 15.00    
8  SKI PATROL Nov16 Oct14 Sep03 Jul28 May06 (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.00 68% 0.50    
 
AQU-7   12/10/2023 6270ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($92K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COSTA TERRA Nov12 Oct13 Oct01 Aug18 Aug09 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.60 31% 2.20    
2  MIDNIGHT TROUBLE Oct19 Aug30 Jun04 Dec30 Dec03 (morley tho)RIVERA R 113 30.00    
3  LITTLE DEMON Nov12 Sep30 Sep06 Aug22 Jul23 (ness jamie)SILVERA RUBEN 123 2.50 24% 3.20    
4  QUALITY CHIC Nov18 Nov05 Oct21 Sep28 Sep14 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 4.50    
5  I AM THE LAW Nov02 Jan06 Dec02 Oct02 Sep05 (terranova john )CARMOUCHE K 121 10.00 10% 8.50    
6  SYSTEMIC CHANGE Oct26 Jun25 May28 Apr23 Mar10 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 125 8.00 13% 6.70    
7  FOWLER BLUE Nov10 Sep23 Jul22 Jun29 May13 (o'neill doug)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00    
8  PORTOS Nov26 Nov12 Nov02 Oct13 Sep21 (potts wayne)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 12.00    
 
AQU-8   12/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($90K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AWILLAWAY Nov26 Nov05 Jun16 May20 Apr22 (dunham g)LUZZI J 122 30.00    
2  SWEETEST PRINCESS Nov16 Oct13 Oct01 Sep04 Aug11 (ferraro ja)RIVERA R 115 8.00    
SCR  MURSAL Oct26 Sep22 Aug12 Jul13 Jun04 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 118 6.00    
4  MONGOLIAN PANTHER Nov26 Nov05 Oct05 Aug30 Aug16 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 8.00 10% 9.30    
5  SECURITY CODE Nov05 Oct07 Sep01 Aug03 Jul07 (serpe m)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00 7% 14.30    
6  MYTOWN MYRULES Sep21 Apr14 Mar11 Feb12 Jan12 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 122 10.00    
SCR  I'MHAVINGAMOMENT Nov05 Oct07 Aug03 Jul09 Jun10 (mott i)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50    
8  VIENNA CODE Nov26 Nov12 Aug09 Jul22 Jul01 (williams and)HARKIE K 122 30.00    
9  WHITE CHOCOLATE Nov20 Oct07 Aug25 Dec15   (summer)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 1.60 61% 0.70    
 
AQU-9   12/10/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ESCAPE KEY Oct28         (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 121 5.00    
2  MAX FOSTER Nov22 Oct30 Oct02 Jan06 Dec11 (englehart jeffr)RUIZ ELISEO 116 10.00 12% 7.40    
SCR  RUNANDSCORE Nov28 Oct27 Oct08 Sep21 Mar18 (pino michael )SILVERA RUBEN 121 3.00    
4  WAFLR Nov17 Nov04 Oct21 Oct05 Jul26 (donk david)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 12.00    
5  PERFECT OUTCOME Nov04 Oct21 Sep21 Aug30 Dec31 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 121 10.00    
6  NOBILIS Nov10 Aug27 Aug02 Jul07 May20 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 121 2.50 39% 1.50    
7  DUDLEY DICKERSON Nov17 Oct24 Sep25 Sep11 Jul24 (moore michae)HADDOCK DEXTER 121 4.00 26% 2.90    
8  ENGLISH STORM Oct05 Jul26 Nov20 Sep17 Sep04 (giangiulio m)HARKIE K 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  SINALOA Nov22 Nov06 Oct21 Sep18 Sep04 (sells rachel)CANCEL ERIC 121 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.