Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Saturday - October 22, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   10/22/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($47K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUT OF ALCATRAZ Aug18         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
2  RILEY BEE         (sanner daniel )CASTANON L 119 20.00 8% 12.30    
3  CALIFORNIA TWIRL Sep15 Aug13       (walsh br)SANTANA JR 119 3.00    
4  WESLAN Sep25         (wainwright )ARRIETA REYNIER 119 15.00    
5  CONNECT ME Sep22 Jul30       (jones larry)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
SCR  O'CONNER SUNSET         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 6% 15.30    
7  LED TASSO Sep22 Aug28 Jul30     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
8  GREAT RAIN         (reed r)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 8% 12.30    
SCR  ROUNDBALL ROCK         (car)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 15.00 7% 13.60    
10  HE'S A GOOD DANCER Oct02 Sep25 Aug28 Jul02   (ennis john)ACHARD ALEX 119 8.00    
SCR  QUALIFIED Sep13         (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.50 49% 1.10    
12  MAMBA FOREVER Sep30 Aug28 Jul24     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
13  KLIMTOMANIAC Sep21         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
 
KEE-2   10/22/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($69K) 2 F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LADY BARON Sep10         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 41% 1.40    
2  QUEENANNE'SREVENGE Sep13         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 ★    
3  VALIANT PRAISE Sep30 Sep03 Aug13     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 18% 4.70    
4  INSPECTOR PENNY         (pessin neil)PETERSON FERRIN 119 20.00    
5  RUN AND GUN Aug10 Jul04       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
6  DOOIT Sep24         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
7  TIZNOW MAMA         (davis chris)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
8  ROYAL DAME Sep28         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
9  FRIGID LADY Sep18 Aug26 Jul22 Jul01   (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 15% 5.80    
10  WEEHAWKEN Sep03 Jul29       (casse ma)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 ★    
11  MISCHIEVOUS GAL         (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
12  FLOWERDEW Sep23 Sep01 Jul31     (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
SCR  ACTING Sep10 Jul22       (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
 
KEE-3   10/22/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($67K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DERIVATIVE Sep29 Sep03 Jul22     (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50 17% 4.70    
SCR  LUCKY SMILE Sep15         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  INSOLITO Sep15 Jan29       (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00 19% 4.30    
4  BET HE'S READY Mar16 Feb17 Jan17     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 30% 2.30    
5  YOU MAKE ME HAPPY Oct08 Sep11 Jul22 Jul03 Jun12 (veinot trudy)BEJARANO R 120 15.00    
SCR  ALLO ENRY Oct02 Apr30 Apr03 Mar24 Feb26 (deville )SANTANA JR 120 20.00    
7  STAND FOR FREEDOM Sep03 Aug05 Jul03 Jun08   (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 120 8.00    
8  NIMRODS         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.50 10% 8.60    
9  SUPREMELY Sep15 Jun09 May22     (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
10  YOLO SANTIAGO         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 20.00    
SCR  ISLAND MISCHIEF Sep22 Aug21       (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 120 30.00    
 
KEE-4   10/22/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($140K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PASS THE PLATE May06 Apr14 Feb19 Jan22   (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 2.50 73% 0.40    
2  YLIKEDIS Sep14 Aug31 Jun18 Jan15   (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 20.00    
3  FLIPPANT Sep13 Aug13 Jul09 May30   (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  CURLY RUTH Sep14 Jun18 May06 Apr14   (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 ★    
5  SEMBLE JUSTE (IRE) Sep06 Jul09 Jun30 Jun04 May06 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 15.00    
6  PARK AVENUE Sep10 Aug13 May30 Apr30 Mar20 (sadler w)ROSARIO JOEL 126 2.00 ★    
7  MADONE Mar05 Jan29       (brisset rodol)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 ★    
8  OLIVIAOFTHEDESERT Sep13 Jul08 Jun10 May08   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
 
KEE-5   10/22/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POBLANO         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
2  RUTHLESS RUA         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
3  SHE'S FANCY         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.50 19% 4.20    
4  TWIRLED Sep14         (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.50 18% 4.60    
5  CATSKILL HUMOR         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 ★    
6  FEARLESS VIV         (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
7  LILIESFORMILLIE         (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
8  AMBER CASCADE         (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
9  JAIKY         (mckeever a)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
10  PUFFIN Sep25         (catalano wayn)GILLIGAN JACK 119 20.00    
11  GAVINERA Sep30         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 30.00    
12  EYES OF GOLD Sep22 Aug13 Jul04 Jun08   (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
SCR  ADALINDA Oct04 Sep23 Aug26 Aug05 Jul09 (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 50.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  JU JU VIP         (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 119 30.00    
SCR  TABOR TIME Sep23         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
SCR  FLYIN BESSIE Sep06         (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 119 4.00 35% 1.80    
 
KEE-6   10/22/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($250K) 3 ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOIST THE GOLD Sep21 Sep03 Jul31 Jul03 Apr02 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
2  PROVOCATEUR Sep24 Aug06 Jun11 May15 Mar19 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00 6% 16.70    
3  ARTORIUS Aug27 Jul29 Jun10 Apr16   (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 120 2.50 ★    
SCR  PINEHURST (IRE) Jul31 Jan29       (walsh brendan)VELAZQUEZ R 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  FRIAR LAURENCE Sep24 Aug14 Jul17 Jan22   (colebrook ben)CARMOUCHE K 118 30.00    
6  B DAWK Sep24 Jul29 Jun19 May21 Apr24 (o'neill doug)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00    
7  OF A REVOLUTION Sep24 Aug26 Aug06 Jun18 Feb05 (joseph saf)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 28% 2.60    
8  GUNITE Sep24 Aug27 Jul31 Jul03 Jun03 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.20 43% 1.30    
 
KEE-7   10/22/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MINUTE WALTZ Oct01 Sep05 Jun26 Jun02   (bauer a)BEJARANO R 122 15.00 ★    
2  EMPRESS TIGRESS Aug11 Jul15 May22     (thomas jonath)VELAZQUEZ R 118 1.80 48% 1.10    
3  STORM KISS Sep01 Aug12 Apr22 Jan14   (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.50 ★    
4  MUSED (GB) May29 Apr30 Jan02     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 20.00    
5  SOLID TUNE Oct03 Sep08 Aug15 Jul03 Apr15 (beckman wh)RAMOS D 118 50.00    
6  SARA MIA Sep14 Aug22 Aug01 Jun26 May26 (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 8.00    
7  ARTOS (IRE) Sep09 Aug11 Jul15 Jun19 May14 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
8  TWIRLING SAVI Jul31 Jul10 Jun22 Jun08   (robertso)SANTANA JR 118 50.00    
9  TOUCH OF CLASS (GER) Sep13 Aug07 Jul13     (flint s)GRAHAM J 122 15.00    
10  HONOR THAT Sep08 Aug15 Jul17 Jun12 May10 (davis chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 30.00    
11  THUNDER LOVE (GB) Sep15 Aug15 Jun29 May29 Apr15 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 6.00 24% 3.20    
12  ALWAYZ LATE Sep13 Aug04 Jul08 May01   (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 122 5.00 7% 13.60    
SCR  SHARP HERO Oct16 Oct02 Sep13 Jun24 Jun04 (ross s)EMIGH A 122 15.00    
SCR  SHES BOUT A MOVER Sep13 Jul31 Jul09 Feb06 Jan16 (walsh bre)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
SCR  CANT BE TOUCHED Oct02 Sep18 Aug19 Mar11 Jan22 (cano juan )HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00    
SCR  TROBAIRITZ Sep14 Jul27 May14 Apr09 Mar04 (pessin neil )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
 
KEE-8   10/22/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAR CAMPAIGN Sep24 Aug20 Jul04 May28 Apr29 (sims a)LANERIE J 118 2.00 11% 8.10    
2  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Oct01 Aug24 Jul22 Jun03   (bauer philip )VELAZQUEZ R 120 20.00    
3  GATE RUNNER Sep23 Jul29 May30 May03 Apr03 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00    
4  TIZ RYE TIME Oct01 Aug01 Jul02 Apr30 Mar31 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 ★    
5  HIGGINSON Sep18         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 10.00    
6  FILM STAR Sep17 Aug05 Jul03     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  DECLARE THE MOON Sep28 Jul24 Jun22 Jun03 Apr07 (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00    
SCR  TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGE Sep05 Aug07 Jul02 Jun04 Apr29 (joseph saf)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
9  C FALLS Sep23 Aug25 Jul30 Jul02 May15 (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 20.00    
10  STRONG QUALITY Oct01 Sep03 Mar19 Feb19 Jan23 (casse ma)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 58% 0.70    
11  ANEJO Sep24 Aug26 Aug06 May29 May01 (o'neill doug)ROSARIO JOEL 123 15.00    
SCR  HIPPODROME Oct08 Sep24 Aug22 Aug13 Aug01 (cash l)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
13  KISSALOT Aug23 Jul30 Jun05 May04 Apr13 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 6% 16.10    
 
KEE-9   10/22/2022 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade II Stake/Handicap Purse ($350K) 3 F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNION LAKE Sep02 Jul23 Jun05     (terranova joh)VELAZQUEZ R 118 6.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of DONNATALE by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  SMASH TICKET Sep24 Jul20 May30     (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 31% 2.30    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of HENNESEY SMASH by ROLL HENNESSY ROLL)
3  REPUBLIQUE Sep25 Aug25 Jul02 May29 Apr14 (joseph sa)LEPAROUX R 120 15.00    
  (by STRONG MANDATE out of CASHMERE by PHONE TRICK)
4  LAST LEAF Sep24 Aug14 Jul16 Jun18 May14 (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MY MISS KALLIE by PADDY O'PRADO)
5  FINGAL'S CAVE Aug26 Jul29 Jun25 May21   (donk david)ROSARIO JOEL 120 4.00 11% 8.50    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of BARBIE ON A BUDGET by MINESHAFT)
6  COLORFUL MISCHIEF Sep24 Aug07 Jul01 Jun04 May06 (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of COLOR ME FLYING by DISTORTED HUMOR)
7  FREEDOM SPEAKS Sep13 Aug19 Jun18 May12   (englehart je)GEROUX FLORENT 120 6.00 25% 3.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of WICKED SPEED by MACHO UNO)
8  WICKED HALO Sep02 Jul02 Jun12 May06 Mar26 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 11% 7.70    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of JUST WICKED by TAPIT)
9  MIDNIGHT STROLL Aug26 Jul02 May20 Mar27 Feb26 (terranova p)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 ★    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MIDNIGHT MAGIC by CAHILL ROAD)
 
KEE-10   10/22/2022 5940ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAROOM         (catalano )LEPAROUX R 121 12.00    
2  MONJID Oct08 Sep03       (mckeever )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
3  LOLAS BEAU Sep01 Jul09 Jun22 May13 Apr29 (guerrero sal)RIQUELME J 121 50.00    
4  MOUNT KISCO Sep22 Aug21 Aug07 Jul03   (howell jess)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 10.00    
5  TIMO Sep06 Aug19 Jul14     (thomas jonath)VELAZQUEZ R 121 4.50    
6  GOOD SOLDIER Sep05 Aug13 Jul14 May21   (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 ★    
7  PUSH BUTTON Sep10         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 31% 2.20    
8  GREYS THE BOY Sep13 Aug21 Apr22 Mar26   (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 121 10.00    
9  INBOUND Sep10 Jul24       (rodriguez ge)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 6.00    
10  SHANNONRUN Oct05 Sep13 Apr28 Feb26 Jan16 (decker anna)AYALA ISAIAS 121 50.00    
11  SHOGUN WARRIOR Sep05 Jul24 Jul09 May30 May07 (hughes byro)PETERSON FERRIN 124 12.00 9% 10.40    
12  PANCAKE HOUSE May21 Apr29       (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 11% 7.80    
SCR  VINTAGE YEAR Sep10 Aug10 Jul14 May30 May05 (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00    
SCR  BLUE DEVIL Sep01 Aug12 Jun05 Apr02   (hiles a)LANERIE J 121 8.00 26% 2.80    
SCR  CENTAURO         (torres a)AYALA ISAIAS 121 30.00    
SCR  KING CURLIN         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.