Handicappers' Racing Form

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Ellis Park
Monday - August 19, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (8/7/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-2   Win (6/4/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-3   Win (5/6/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-4   Win (10/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-5   Win (1/6/8/9/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-6   Win (6/9/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-7   Win (2/10/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-8   Win (10/9/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-9   Win (8/6/7/10/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ELP-1   08/19/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VINO FA DANZA Jul06 Apr10 Mar21 Feb14 Oct20 (foster eric)FUENTES ERICK 108 10.00 5% 19.00    
SINALOA Jul07 Jun10 May20 May06 Feb12 (hancock dana)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 30.00    
MASTER OF THE NITE Jul30 Jul05 Jun19 Jun05 May18 (garcia genaro)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 6.00    
SCR  TIE BREAKER LENNIE Jul13 Jun23 Jun05 Mar13 Feb29 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
SCR  DELIBERATION Jul20 Apr16       (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.00    
MISSION RIVER Aug10 Jul14 Jun09     (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 3.50 13% 6.60    
AVAILABILITY Jul06 Jun26 Jun12 May01 Apr06 (estvanko richard)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00 19% 4.30    
PHOTO OP Apr10 Mar22 Feb24 Dec16   (hiles rick)BEALMEAR C 117 4.50 42% 1.40    
SMILING CLOUD May16         (shorter )LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 15.00    
 
ELP-2   08/19/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MORE SPIRITS PLEEZ Jul28         (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 6.00    
CASINO ANNIE Jul22 Jul07 Jun15 Mar27 Mar06 (parker r)LEBRON VICTOR 124 4.50    
VIVIS IN FRONT Mar15 Feb29 Jan10 Dec20 Nov07 (hancock jack )MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
KISS ME KATIE Jul22 Jul07 Aug09 Jul08   (ortiz ale)TORRES A 124 2.50 28% 2.60    
DAME MAUDE CHARDIN Jul22 Jun27       (habeeb j)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00    
GALADINI Jul16 Jun19 May31 Apr27 Mar24 (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.00 34% 2.00    
VINO VELOCE Aug05 Jul13 Jun19 May17 Apr17 (puhich mike)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 8.00 13% 6.90    
 
ELP-3   08/19/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:49
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAGLIATELLE Jul13 Jun16 May25 May09 Apr12 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
REDEMPTION TIME Dec30 Nov17 Oct19 Sep17 Aug26 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00    
GOLD SWEEP Jan28 Oct07 Sep04 Jul15 Jun11 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 16% 5.30    
POLSTER Jul14 Jun16 May17 Apr12 Mar16 (brown h)CANNON DECLAN 122 20.00    
BAD BOY FRANK Jul07 Jun13 Jun18 Apr28 Mar25 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 1.80 34% 2.00    
SAVE THE TREES Jul06 Jun09 Apr19     (maker michael )TORRES A 118 2.00 18% 4.40    
ONE GIANT LEAP Jun07 Apr26 Nov10 Oct12 Apr26 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 11% 8.10    
 
ELP-4   08/19/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:21
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUCRE CECILE Jul28 Jul07 Jun18 Jun02 Dec13 (foster eri)RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
LADY ROBO Jul22 Jun15 May28 Mar22 Mar07 (holden darra)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 10.00    
CONQUEST DANCER Jul21 Jun20 Apr25     (catalano m)LANERIE J 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
QUEEN ANNA T Jun19 Apr20       (mckeever andr)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00    
MISS ESCAPADE Apr07 Feb25 Feb10 Jan01 Sep30 (santamaria carl)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
ELLIOTT MOON Jun27 May30 May10 Mar30 Feb22 (kerrick lacy)CASTANON L 119 20.00    
CHARLINA Apr27         (shorter )GUTIERREZ RAMOS 114 20.00    
STREETS OF PARIS Aug05 Jun26 Jun12     (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 5.00    
PRISON BOUND Jun26 May31       (meah m)TORRES A 119 8.00    
10  TEMPTING LADY Apr13 Mar08 Feb09 Jan19 Dec14 (sharp joe)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 4.00 42% 1.40    
11  SHE'S IT Jul09 May25 Mar17     (ortiz alex)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
12  SPICEY VALENTINE Jul21         (cano muno)TORRES A 119 15.00    
 
ELP-5   08/19/2024 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 2:54
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
POSTER         (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 3.00 29% 2.40    
XAVI Jun26 Jun08       (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 119 30.00    
HIGH LIMIT Jul20 Jun27       (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
HAUNTED FLAME Jul05         (lynch a)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
TURNBUCKLE Aug05 Jul20 Jun19 May02 Apr05 (hancock dana)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
KUNOOZ         (walsh p)MACHADO LUAN 119 2.50 15% 5.50    
REVERSE MERGER         (casse w)TORRES A 119 4.00    
OPTICAL Jun22         (desormeaux keit)LANERIE J 119 10.00 15% 5.70    
ZAP D'ETAT Jul28         (house ga)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 10.00 14% 6.20    
10  CAPTAIN JUNUH         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
SCR  CUPID'S THUNDER Jul22 Jul02 Jun04 May01 Apr10 (hancock jack )MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 30.00    
SCR  HAMLIN         (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.50    
SCR  GEOMETRY         (thomas jonathan)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
SCR  SOUND CAUSE Jul18 Jun21       (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
 
ELP-6   08/19/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:26
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  VIABLE Jul13 Jan10 Nov29 Nov03   (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
SHEZALITTLESTINKER Jul13 Jun08       (catalano way)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00    
VICTORIOUS NYQUIST Jul29 Jun20 Sep09 Jul29   (walsh p)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.50    
CHURNING BERNI Jul13 Jun07 Apr27 Mar14 Feb13 (pessin l)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
HAPPY HAPPY Jun15 Jun01 May03 Mar22 Feb11 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 124 8.00    
SONHADOR Nov18         (devaux cherie)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 5.00 54% 0.90    
PENNY ROYAL Jul13 May25       (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 8.00 5% 19.00    
STEPHANIESWARRIOR Jul21 May25 Apr05 Mar01 Jan24 (capps a)BEJARANO R 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
MEDAGLIA FOREVER Nov19 Oct22 Jun24 Apr29 Mar25 (stewart dal)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.00 17% 4.90    
10  FUN LOVING Jul15 May25 Apr18 Nov25 Nov03 (oliver victo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
11  JAZZ PARTY Jul27         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
 
ELP-7   08/19/2024 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT- 3:52
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BOUTWELL TIME Jul27 Jun14       (amoss m)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
ALWAYS FOREVER Jul21         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 36% 1.80    
EL JOURY         (walsh p)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 13% 7.00    
SCR  FIXIN TO BEE Jul13         (arnold r)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
ADDED TOUCH         (oliver victo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
SCR  PRINCESS SKAYA Jul13         (maker michael )TORRES A 119 4.00    
LES IS BEST         (foster eric)TORRES A 119 20.00    
SERVING TIME (GB)         (devaux cherie)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00    
RATHER DISTINCT         (kenneally ed)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 12.00    
10  VIXEN Jul27         (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00 31% 2.20    
SCR  DERRY GIRL Jul06 Jun14       (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00    
SCR  NECESSITY         (casse w)TORRES A 119 6.00    
SCR  SHEILA'S LION Aug04         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
SCR  WILL THEN         (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00    
 
ELP-8   08/19/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($34K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CHIQUITA MOSCA Jul27 Jul17 Jun30 Jun22 Mar28 (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 30.00    
SCR  UP ON THE EDGE Jul20 Jun19 May27 Apr20 Dec09 (moquett ronald )ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 12.00    
BELLA CRUELLA Jul13 Jun19 May10 Apr12 Mar13 (bahena ismael)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
EVIE'S ENCORE Apr27 Mar24 Feb04 Nov12 Sep23 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 4.50    
SHERBET FOUNTAIN Jul20 Jun19 Jun01 Mar06 Feb15 (pino v)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 10.00 15% 5.80    
HIGH FASHION KATE Jul29 Jul06 Jun08 May09 Apr05 (minnock g)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
ITSABLINGTHING Jul21 Jun27 May29 May02 Apr10 (barrett )CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 122 30.00    
SCR  ROSE ALABAMA Jul05 Jun12 May17 Mar30   (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
LITTLE SISTER SUE Jul17 Jul05 Jun13 May23 Apr17 (garcia genaro)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 5.00 19% 4.30    
10  WINDY BAY Jun22 Jun05 May09 Apr04 Feb04 (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.50 30% 2.30    
SCR  MO SENSE Jul05 Jun14 Apr30 Mar20 Jan27 (hartman chris)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 20.00    
12  SACRED SAINT Feb04 Jan13 Jan01 Nov18   (scherer mar)BEALMEAR C 111 30.00    
 
ELP-9   08/19/2024 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JUNGLE CAT May06 Mar28 Feb29 Jan31 Dec30 (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 118 6.00    
COTE D'IVOIRE Jul31 Jul17 Jun21 May30 Apr11 (andrade hug)BEALMEAR C 116 30.00    
THREE ON THE TREE Jun30 May31 Apr30 Sep07 Jul23 (lovell michell)TORRES A 123 6.00    
CASHMEUP Jul20 Jul05 Jun15 May25 Apr27 (miller f)BEJARANO R 123 12.00    
SCR  J T'S IMAGINATION Jul20 Jun15 May23 Apr14 Mar01 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00    
WOODCOCK FLIGHT (IRE) May25 May02 Apr10 Mar07 Feb03 (puhich mike)BARBOSA CARLOS 123 8.00 18% 4.60    
PERUVIAN LUCKY Jun25 Jun04 May13 Mar21 Feb22 (gerteisen adam)GRAHAM J 123 5.00 5% 19.00    
LAUGH A LOT Jun07 Sep14 Aug05 Jul12 Jun21 (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.00 53% 0.90    
PICO D'ORO Jul19 Jun16 Jun05 May18 Feb25 (caramori cai)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  LIAM THE BRAVE Jun21 May12 Apr11 Mar21 Feb22 (esquiv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CITY OF CLOUDS Jul13 Jun08 May25 May05 Apr21 (santamaria c)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 6.00    
SCR  EXPRESS CRUISER Jul13 Jun12 May19 Apr27 Apr04 (camejo m)BEJARANO R 118 4.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.