Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 09, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/6)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/6)-(5/4/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/6)-(5/4/7/3)-(1/9/2/10) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/4/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/7/3)-(5/4/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/7/3)-(5/4/7/3)-(5/4/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/7/3)-(1/9/2/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/4/7/3)-(1/9/2/10)-(4/1/2/5/11) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/9/2/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/2/10)-(1/9/2/12/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/9/2/10)-(1/9/2/12/10)-(1/9/2/12/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/9/2/10)-(4/1/2/5/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/9/2/10)-(4/1/2/5/11)-(4/7/2/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/1/2/5/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/1/2/5/11)-(4/1/2/5/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/1/2/5/11)-(4/1/2/5/11)-(4/1/2/5/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/1/2/5/11)-(4/7/2/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2/5/11)-(4/7/2/8)-(8/4/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/7/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/2/8)-(4/7/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/2/8)-(4/7/2/8)-(4/7/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7/2/8)-(8/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/7/2/8)-(8/4/1)-(11/2/10) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/4/1)-(8/4/1/2/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/1)-(8/4/1/2/9)-(8/4/1/2/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/4/1)-(11/2/10) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/4/1)-(11/2/10)-(9/11/4/2/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-7   WIN (11/2/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (11/2/10)-(11/2/10/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (11/2/10)-(11/2/10/4/7)-(11/2/10/4/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (11/2/10)-(9/11/4/2/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/11/4/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/11/4/2/6)-(9/11/4/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/11/4/2/6)-(9/11/4/2/6)-(9/11/4/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/09/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIVINELY BOLT Apr11 Mar15 Feb14 Jan03 Nov04 (simms jr)ORTIZ L 124 3.00    
2  WINDY BAY Apr04 Feb04 Dec29 Oct18 Sep03 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 124 2.50 37% 1.70    
3  LADY MERCEDES Feb15 Jan25 Jan01 Nov12 Oct19 (forster gr)HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00    
4  CANT KEEP ME DOWN Apr07 Mar15 Feb24 Feb01 Jan03 (salas fe)SANTANA JR 124 3.50 25% 3.10    
5  BEST SELLER Apr10 Jun16 Apr21 Mar19 Feb08 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.50    
6  ALAMO Apr19 Mar28 Mar01 Feb16 Jul30 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-2   05/09/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOR SOME REASON Mar15 Feb15 Jan24 Dec10 Nov03 (joseph saffie )ORTIZ L 120 4.00    
2  BAYTOWN BRUISER Feb02 Jan06 Nov30 Oct05 Sep20 (wismer g)SANTANA JR 120 20.00    
3  BADLANDS RULER Mar21 Feb19 Jan28 Nov10 Oct07 (falcone n)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  SIR GREYLIND Apr13         (forster gra)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 3.00 25% 3.00    
5  GREAT RICHIE M Apr07 Mar20 Feb02 Jan18 Dec28 (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 2.50 40% 1.50    
6  MIDNIGHT STORMY Apr27 Apr07 Mar08 Feb02 Jan18 (minnock g)BEJARANO R 120 20.00    
7  B FIFTY TWO Mar21 Jan21 Dec14 Nov24   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 13% 6.40    
 
CD-3   05/09/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUSTIN CRUISE         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.00 33% 2.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of ZURLIN by CURLIN)
2  BAYTOWN SUNDANCE Apr21         (mcentee paul)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 22% 3.60    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of COWGIRL MALLY by GONE WEST)
3  AMERICAN CITY Apr25         (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 119 20.00    
  (by THE BIG BEAST out of SKY PALACE by PALACE)
4  SACKETT Apr21         (mccutchen jaso)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of CURLIN'S APPLE by CURLIN)
5  REB         (fletcher )CORREA L 119 20.00    
  (by SHANCELOT out of WELL SPUN by HARD SPUN)
6  REPEATINGOFCOURSE         (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
  (by ALGORITHMS out of ROUGE by QUALITY ROAD)
7  TAB WALKER         (lightner m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by ENTICED out of ROSE LARUE by CAIRO PRINCE)
8  SERGEANT CAPPS Apr26 Apr10       (capps steve)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 5.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of PRIVATE ESTATE by PRIVATE TALK)
9  MO HAIR SAM Apr21 Apr10       (hancock a)LANERIE J 119 4.50 22% 3.50    
  (by MO TOWN out of SHANGHAI LADY by JUDY'S KING)
10  FINANCIAL WHIZ         (hamilton sarah)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of GATORETTE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
11  THE TONER Apr25         (caramori )TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ULTIMATE SHOPPER by YES IT'S TRUE)
12  SWEET FANTASY         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 5.00 ★    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of SWEET JACKIE JO by STORMY ATLANTIC)
SCR  LOVELY REGALO         (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 114 12.00    
  (by HIGHER POWER out of LOVELY GIFT by MINESHAFT)
SCR  PROBATIONER         (caramori c)VILLARREAL OSCAR 109 15.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of ON PROBATION by INTO MISCHIEF)
 
CD-4   05/09/2024 5940ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PIN UP BETTY Apr13 Jan19 Dec27 Nov25 Oct29 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 11% 7.90    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of I'M BETTY G by INTO MISCHIEF)
2  MOONLIGHT GAMBLER Apr05 Feb21 Oct27 Oct06 Sep02 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 10% 9.10    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of TREASURED UP by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
3  HAMPTON YARD Apr21         (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
4  HIDDEN PRESENCE Apr05 Feb16 Jan21 Dec16 Oct27 (motion g)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 50% 1.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of INCREDIBLE GRACE by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  DIANTHUS Mar23 Feb14 Jan03     (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 6% 16.50    
  (by ASTERN out of STORM LILY by STORM CAT)
6  CAPO DONNA Apr05         (handal raym)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of BAUBLE QUEEN by ARCH)
SCR  GUINEVERE Apr05 Feb21       (ward a)CEDILLO ABEL 118 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
8  RESTLESS DREAMER Apr07 Feb18       (brown c)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of DIVINE PRAISES by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  BLAME THE GELATO Sep10 Aug18 Jul22     (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
  (by BLAME out of BIANCO TARTUFO by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  ADRASTEIA Mar28 Nov29 Nov16 Oct27 Sep28 (bogle fergus)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of ARROSTOS by BODEMEISTER)
11  SICILIAN PRINCESS Apr07 Mar02 Feb14     (walden will)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of ELLE SUENO by STREET CRY (IRE))
12  RACONTEUSE Apr13 Mar23 Feb14 Jul23 Jun23 (wilkes r)CONNER TYLER 118 20.00    
  (by MITOLE out of FREE REIN by UNBRIDLED)
SCR  ARGENTINIDAD Apr13 Mar06       (seglin e)RIQUELME J 118 30.00    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of BELLE DE NUIT by GALILEO)
SCR  SEMANTICS Apr21 Mar07       (medina ro)TORRES A 125 8.00    
  (by BROKEN VOW out of DINNER WITH D C by DIXIE UNION)
 
CD-5   05/09/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ONE RED CENT Apr20 Nov25 Nov15 Oct20 Oct01 (jazdzews)RODRIGUEZ A 118 10.00    
2  ABADIN Apr12 Nov02 Sep28 Aug19 Jul21 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00 16% 5.40    
3  BRAZEN BOY Dec29 Jun25 May19 Mar25 Mar09 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 10.00    
4  EPIC BATTLE Oct29 Sep15 Aug09     (drury thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 34% 2.00    
5  TIGER'S LEGACY Apr24 Mar16 Apr20 Mar12 Feb01 (davis chr)DETTORI LANFRANCO 123 5.00    
6  ICEATUDE Apr12 Jun17 May18 Apr14 Dec31 (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 20.00    
7  ASMODEUS Apr12 Mar23 Mar01 Jan26 Jun10 (morey william )ORTIZ L 123 2.00 25% 3.00    
8  OVERBORE Apr10 Mar08 Sep22 Sep02 Aug05 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-6   05/09/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAROLD'S CLOUD Apr11 Mar06 Feb08 Jan18 Dec30 (rice adam)ORTIZ L 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  TAGLIATELLE Apr12 Mar20 Mar08 Jan06 Dec20 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 10.00 ★    
SCR  WELAKA Apr11 Mar22 Aug26 Jul14 Mar24 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 12.00    
4  LAUGHINALLTHEWAY Apr12 Mar03 Feb08 Jan18 Nov18 (lovell michell)ASHTON GAVIN 124 5.00 22% 3.60    
5  PANDO Apr13 Feb23 Dec09 Nov18 Oct26 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 124 8.00    
6  MONTEVALLO Apr14 Mar22 Feb15 Jan05   (tomlinson michael )GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
SCR  ATHENS MOON Mar23 Mar03 Feb22 Jan05 Nov22 (hartman chr)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 10.00    
8  LIPS SAY BLISS Mar17 Feb11 Jan28 Nov24   (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.00 55% 0.80    
9  WINSTON WOLF Mar13 Feb02 Jan10 Dec14 Nov10 (amoss m)SAEZ LUIS 124 6.00 ★    
10  BOBWHITE BOBBY Apr12 Feb11 Dec15 Nov20 Oct13 (von donn)ROCCO S 124 20.00    
11  KNOX Feb18 Dec26 Nov12 Sep16 Aug26 (blair jordan)TORRES A 124 8.00    
 
CD-7   05/09/2024 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SALUTE THE STARS Sep09 Jul22 Jun17 May14 Aug27 (cox h)ORTIZ L 122 4.50    
2  FORT WASHINGTON Dec30 Oct19 Sep03 Aug12 May06 (mcgaughey claude )SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 7% 13.30    
3  DUBYUHNELL Feb17 Dec30 Oct28 Apr01 Feb11 (gargan dan)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 12.00    
4  JOHNY'S FIREBALL Mar23 Feb17 Dec23 Nov18 Oct06 (casse no)SANTANA JR 122 4.00 ★    
5  EVAN HARLAN Apr19 Mar16 Feb25 Feb02 Jan05 (walsh bre)DETTORI LANFRANCO 124 8.00    
6  NATIVE THUNDER Feb12 Jan20 Dec22 Nov18 Nov02 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 20.00    
7  BAY STREET MONEY Jun17 May20 Apr01 Feb18 Jan13 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 ★    
8  SANTORINI Apr11 Feb17 Jan06 Dec02 Oct28 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 122 6.00    
9  EL KABONG Apr11 Feb17 Jan04 Dec01 Jul09 (arnold r)LANERIE J 122 8.00    
10  CAMP HOPE Feb17 Aug06 Jul01 Jun01 May04 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
11  CHASING THE CROWN Feb17 Jan20 Sep07 Jul20 Jun22 (maker mic)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 2.50 66% 0.50    
SCR  HAYES STRIKE Apr13 Mar09 Feb17 Jul08 Jun24 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00    
 
CD-8   05/09/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPIRITUAL LADY Apr10 Mar02 Jan26 Dec31 Dec16 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
2  WINDY WALK Apr14 Feb08 Jan03 Nov16 Oct19 (davis christop)ORTIZ L 120 4.00 11% 8.40    
SCR  WAILUA Feb08         (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
4  BETTE DAVIS Apr05 Mar13 Feb10 Jan25 Dec09 (tomlinson )LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 6.00 11% 8.10    
5  KRICKLE Jan26 Dec29 Dec08 Nov08 Oct29 (holsapple )MURRILL MITCHELL 120 12.00    
6  MILA JUNES Mar15 Jan27 Dec29 Dec13 Nov08 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  IDALOU Feb25 Dec31 Oct25 Sep27   (schultz l)HERNANDEZ J 120 30.00    
SCR  SEVEN NATTY PATTY May04 Apr14 Oct14 Sep22 Sep02 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00    
9  READY FOR TROUBLE Apr14 Mar21 Feb02 Dec31 Dec17 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 3.50 29% 2.40    
10  HIGH FASHION KATE Apr05 Mar07 Feb10 Jan18 Jan03 (minnock g)GRAHAM J 120 15.00    
11  QUEEN'S NOTICE Mar13 Feb10 Dec28 Nov17   (drury j)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00 23% 3.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.