Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belmont At The Big A
Thursday - October 05, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BAQ-1   WIN (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/1)-(1/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/1)-(1/6/4)-(1/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/1)-(1/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1)-(1/7/4)-(3/4/9/2/10) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
BAQ-2   WIN (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/4)-(1/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/4)-(1/7/4)-(1/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/4)-(3/4/9/2/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/7/4)-(3/4/9/2/10)-(4/5/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
BAQ-3   WIN (3/4/9/2/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/4/9/2/10)-(3/4/9/2/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/4/9/2/10)-(3/4/9/2/10)-(3/4/9/2/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/4/9/2/10)-(4/5/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/4/9/2/10)-(4/5/6)-(8/7/3/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
BAQ-4   WIN (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/6)-(4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/6)-(8/7/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6)-(8/7/3/6)-(6/2/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
BAQ-5   WIN (8/7/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/3/6)-(8/7/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/3/6)-(8/7/3/6)-(8/7/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/7/3/6)-(6/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/3/6)-(6/2/3)-(5/6/7/10) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
BAQ-6   WIN (6/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/3)-(6/2/4/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/3)-(6/2/4/3/9)-(6/2/4/3/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/2/3)-(5/6/7/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3)-(5/6/7/10)-(6/8/5/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
BAQ-7   WIN (5/6/7/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/7/10)-(5/6/7/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/7/10)-(5/6/7/10)-(5/6/7/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/6/7/10)-(6/8/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/6/7/10)-(6/8/5/7)-(2/4/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
BAQ-8   WIN (6/8/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/5/7)-(6/8/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/8/5/7)-(6/8/5/7)-(6/8/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/8/5/7)-(2/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
BAQ-9   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/10/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/10/6/1)-(2/4/10/6/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BAQ-1   10/05/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRUE MYTH         (terranova john)ROSARIO JOEL 119 3.00 ★    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CAN'T EXPLAIN by NOT FOR LOVE)
1A  CARESS         (weaver georg)CASTELLANO J 119 3.00 19% 4.20    
  (by CONNECT out of FUN AFFAIR by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  CANDY LOVER Aug20 Jul23 Jun23     (devaux cherie)FRANCO MANUEL 119 10.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TAURASI by MINESHAFT)
3  EXPERIMENTAL         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 4.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TRIAL AND ERROR by UNCLE MO)
4  BENTO Aug06         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 21% 3.70    
  (by TAPIT out of CAROLYN'S CAT by FORESTRY)
5  PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD         (dutrow richar)VELAZQUEZ R 119 6.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of RACYN WITH GRACYN by VICTORY GALLOP)
6  BEFORE YOU GO GO Aug30 Aug06       (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 1.80 39% 1.50    
  (by MITOLE out of WAKE ME UP by ACT OF WAR)
 
BAQ-2   10/05/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHASING DAYLIGHT Aug11 Jun23 May19 Apr13 Jun24 (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 1.20 47% 1.10    
2  JOEY THE FISH Aug09 Jul30 Jul16 Jun17 May19 (persaud randi)CASTILLO AMIN 118 30.00    
SCR  ALTERINA Aug24 Jun15       (hennig mark)DAVIS KATIE 120 8.00    
4  SHIGEKO Sep14 Aug16 Jul30 Dec18 Nov19 (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 122 6.00 9% 10.30    
5  SHOOPTHEREITIS Sep04 Aug07 Jul17 Jun13 May16 (englehart jerem)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.50    
6  K D KAKES Jun17 May19 Apr06 Mar12 Feb18 (falcone ro)RIVERA R 115 4.00    
7  JOEYBIGNOSE Sep04 Jun18 May18 Apr16 Apr02 (noda orlando)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 6.00 10% 8.90    
 
BAQ-3   10/05/2023 7260ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABSOLUTE CONTROL (FR) Aug30         (weaver georg)CASTELLANO J 120 12.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  STARTS NOW Jul29 Jun17 Apr15 Nov18 Oct28 (kantarmaci mer)ORTIZ L 120 8.00 7% 13.60    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of VERY FUNNY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
3  WHY WASTE WORDS Jul15         (bond j)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 44% 1.30    
  (by BERNARDINI out of THE ROAD NOT TAKEN by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
4  TAWARET Jul29 Jul02 Apr28 Mar19   (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 120 2.50 21% 3.90    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of TAPAS by SKY CLASSIC)
5  MACHIAVELLIQUE Aug30 Jul29 Jun24 Jun03 Mar26 (albertrani )ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 15.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  LIBRETTO (IRE) Jul02 Jun03 May07 Mar04 Nov20 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 124 4.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of LOPERA by MONSUN (GER))
7  ADDRESSABLE MARKET (IRE) Sep03 May14 Nov06 Aug13   (metivier richar)DAVIS KATIE 120 20.00    
  (by KODIAC out of EAVESDROP by PHONE TRICK)
8  ANNA LUCIA Jul08 May24       (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 120 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of LIRA by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
9  DARK POOL Sep03 Aug05       (maker j)CARMOUCHE K 120 10.00 8% 11.20    
  (by COLLECTED out of CHESTNUT GROVE by STREET CRY (IRE))
10  NAA DUDETTE Aug26 Jul20 May14 Apr15 Mar10 (falcone ro)RIVERA R 115 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FIRST DUDE out of NAA by REPENT)
SCR  RAPID MISS TAPIT Aug26 Aug04 Jul20 Jun30 May13 (potts wa)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 30.00    
  (by TAPIT out of MAGICAL DREAM by DOUG'S MY DOC)
 
BAQ-4   10/05/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($47K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN PURCHASE Aug17 Jul19 Jul04 Jun15 May27 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 117 20.00    
2  BERLONE Jan14 Dec03       (david carlos )OLVER MADISON 114 5.00    
3  LITTLE SKIPPY May05 Apr07 Mar19     (brown r)DAVIS KATIE 121 4.00    
4  BARGAINING POWER Aug17 Oct09 Sep10     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 124 1.60 28% 2.50    
5  DUKE OF GLOUCESTER Aug25 Aug05 Jul14 Jun11 May21 (potts wayne)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 3.50 22% 3.50    
6  LOUIE'S HEAT         (walder p)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 8.00 13% 6.60    
7  MOTIVO Aug26 Jul21 May25 Apr30   (dutrow richard )DAVIS DYLAN 121 6.00    
 
BAQ-5   10/05/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIFE AND LIGHT Sep21 Jul21 Jul03 Jun22 May27 (pringle edmun)CASTILLO AMIN 118 20.00    
2  PIT BOSS Aug29 Aug02 Jul13 Jun25 May27 (bernardini )MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 6.00    
3  COOL QUARTET Sep08 Jul08 Jun24 Jun03 May20 (noda orlando)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 3.50 7% 13.90    
4  HANG TIGHT Sep03 Aug02 Jul22 Jul04 Jun04 (romero jes)RIVERA R 119 15.00    
5  CAERUS Aug31 Aug23 Apr20 Mar26 Mar10 (lucas bo)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 10.00    
6  DATESFREEDOM Sep21 Aug25 Aug10 Jul03 Jun13 (delauro edw)MARTINEZ R 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  DURKIN'S CALL Sep03 Aug06 Jul02 May04 Apr07 (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 122 2.50 7% 12.40    
8  TWO THIRTY FIVE Sep21 Aug10 Jul13 Jun25 May21 (noda orlando)ORTIZ JR 124 1.80 60% 0.70    
 
BAQ-6   10/05/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($75K) 2 ALL PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SLAMMIN GOLD Sep14         (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 119 6.00    
  (by TAPIT out of BAR OF GOLD by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  BRICK AMBUSH         (gargan danny)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.50 27% 2.70    
  (by LAOBAN out of STEVE'S PHILLY by TALE OF EKATI)
3  JEFFERSONS OCEAN         (friedman mi)MARTINEZ R 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of CARAMEAWAY by LAWYER RON)
4  SIX FORTYFIVE         (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 119 4.00 ★    
  (by LAOBAN out of ARISTRA by AFLEET ALEX)
5  WINWOOD Sep04         (david carlos )ORTIZ JR 119 10.00    
  (by POSEIDON'S WARRIOR out of WV MOUNTAIN MOMMA by MORE THAN READY)
6  SOLO'S FURY Sep04         (englehart jer)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.00 49% 1.10    
  (by SOLOMINI out of LITERARY LADY by BIRDSTONE)
7  CURLIN'S HUSTLE         (hills a)DAVIS DYLAN 119 15.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of SILVER HUSTLER by POLITICAL FORCE)
8  GOD LAUGHS         (baker charl)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 15.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of TALKING TREASURE by CATIENUS)
9  HAIR ON FIRE         (atras rob)LEZCANO JOSE 119 12.00 ★    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DEPUTY CURES BLUES by WAR DEPUTY)
10  BLUE MARBLE         (mcburney)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 20.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of AVENDESORA by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
 
BAQ-7   10/05/2023 3960ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($65K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OCTOPUS Sep28 Jul03 Apr21 Mar05 Feb19 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 123 12.00    
SCR  GOT THUNDER Aug05 Jun18 Apr30 Mar17 Feb11 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 123 12.00    
2  WAR TERMINATOR Aug31 Jul29 Jul20 Jun23 Jun09 (contessa c)DAVIS KATIE 121 15.00    
SCR  TENEBRIS Sep15 Aug31 Jun11 Jun03 May21 (wilson f)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 15.00    
4  BUCKORTWO Aug16 Aug10 Jun24 May19 Jul30 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 123 10.00    
5  CHARGING Aug31 Jul27 May20 Apr26 Mar26 (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 120 3.00 42% 1.40    
6  SAINTHOODFORBRIAN Sep13 Aug03 Jul14 Jun21 Jun01 (klesaris steve)ORTIZ L 123 3.50 23% 3.40    
7  KING JAMES (IRE) Aug17 Jul20 Jun24 May21 Apr29 (summers chad)ROSARIO JOEL 121 4.50 9% 10.40    
8  VOLKERT Jul29 Jun23 May26 Mar10 Feb05 (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00    
9  MAJESTIC JOHNSON Jun23 Jul31 Jul08     (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 121 6.00    
10  BUILT TO LAST (BRZ) Sep15 Jun11 Apr29 Apr15 Mar10 (englehart c)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HE'S GOT IT Sep14 Aug26 Jun02 Jan04 Nov28 (abreu jorge)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 20.00    
SCR  VETERANS BEACH Aug26 Aug19 Jul22 Jul01 Jun10 (ward dan)RIVERA R 118 12.00    
SCR  HAPPY CAT Aug13 Sep24       (duarte jorge )FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.50    
SCR  FIGHT FIERCELY Sep01 Aug20 Jul16 Jun11 May04 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 115 8.00    
SCR  KUNSHAN BRIDGE Sep16 Aug31 Aug17 May26 Mar18 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 123 4.00    
 
BAQ-8   10/05/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FANCY AZTECA Aug09 Jul02 Apr27 Apr07 Mar18 (dutrow richard )DAVIS DYLAN 118 6.00    
SCR  GOOD PENNY Jul20 Apr07 Mar25 Mar05 Jan13 (camejo j)GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 6.00    
2  PURE PAULINE Nov26 Oct20 Sep04     (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 6.00    
SCR  ICHIBAN Aug27 Jul26 Jul15 Jun25 Apr15 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 8.00    
4  TONED UP Sep04 Jul30 May18 Apr21 Mar17 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 124 12.00    
5  SWEET MYSTERY Aug24 Jul26 Jul02 May04 Apr21 (quick patri)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 8.00 8% 11.40    
6  CUPID'S HEART Aug30 Jul22 Jun23 Nov25 Oct23 (levine bruce)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 3.00 41% 1.40    
7  MONGOLIAN PANTHER Aug30 Aug16 Jul12 May06 Apr02 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  PORTAGE Aug16 Jul20 Jun23 May20 Mar16 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 4.00 26% 2.80    
9  SA FORADADA Aug16 Aug12 Jul13 Jun01 Jan13 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 122 12.00    
10  MIA BEA STAR Aug24 Jul13 Jul02 Jun01 May04 (persaud rand)CASTELLANO J 124 20.00    
 
BAQ-9   10/05/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($43K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILENT RUNNING Aug30 Aug06 Jun03 May13 Jan01 (bond harol)RIVERA R 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  YOUR MISSION Jul26 Jul01 May13 Jan05 Nov05 (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 3.50 69% 0.40    
3  TESTA DURA Sep22 Aug31 Oct22 Sep22   (chichakly ami)MARTIN MATTIE 113 30.00    
4  VINCE THE PRINCE Jul26 Jun18 Jun01 May06 Apr14 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 5% 19.00    
5  CATTANI Jul30         (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 15.00    
6  ENGLISH STORM Jul26 Nov20 Sep17 Sep04 Aug15 (giangiulio mic)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00 ★    
7  CASH BAIL Aug23 Oct17 Aug18 Jun29   (meadow e)USKE S 124 20.00    
8  WAFLR Jul26 Jun18 May13     (donk david)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 10.00    
9  HARI Jun03         (mott i)ORTIZ L 120 5.00    
10  JUST FOR LUCK (AUS) Jul30 Jun03 May06 Mar18 Oct15 (asmussen ste)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00 ★    
SCR  HERONEANDONLY Sep04 Aug19 Aug09 Jul08 Jun01 (goodwin ga)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 117 30.00    
SCR  CHULLIGAN Sep04 Jun23 Oct07 Aug26   (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00    
SCR  HE'S A LUCKY GUY Sep06 Jul26       (brion keri)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00    
SCR  REFUAH Aug27 Aug09 Jul04 Jun09 May20 (walder pete)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 1.80    
SCR  PRIX DE WEST Sep22 Sep04 Aug06 Apr27   (mott i)RIDER TBA 120 10.00    
SCR  AULA Sep25 Jul26 Jul01 May19 Apr22 (maker michael)SILVERA RUBEN 120 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.