Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 09, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/6)-(3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/6)-(4/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/4/6)-(4/1/5)-(11/6/2/7/9) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-2   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(11/6/2/7/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5)-(11/6/2/7/9)-(4/3/2/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-3   WIN (11/6/2/7/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/6/2/7/9)-(11/6/2/7/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/6/2/7/9)-(11/6/2/7/9)-(11/6/2/7/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/6/2/7/9)-(4/3/2/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (11/6/2/7/9)-(4/3/2/7)-(3/8/2/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-4   WIN (4/3/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/2/7)-(3/8/2/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2/7)-(3/8/2/5)-(3/10/7/5/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-5   WIN (3/8/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/2/5)-(3/8/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/2/5)-(3/8/2/5)-(3/8/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/8/2/5)-(3/10/7/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/8/2/5)-(3/10/7/5/8)-(2/11/5/10/7) 100 $1.00 $300 
ELP-6   WIN (3/10/7/5/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/10/7/5/8)-(3/10/7/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/10/7/5/8)-(3/10/7/5/8)-(3/10/7/5/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/10/7/5/8)-(2/11/5/10/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (3/10/7/5/8)-(2/11/5/10/7)-(5/3/4/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-7   WIN (2/11/5/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/11/5/10/7)-(2/11/5/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/11/5/10/7)-(2/11/5/10/7)-(2/11/5/10/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/11/5/10/7)-(5/3/4/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/11/5/10/7)-(5/3/4/8)-(5/6/8/1/9) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-8   WIN (5/3/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/4/8)-(5/3/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/4/8)-(5/3/4/8)-(5/3/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/3/4/8)-(5/6/8/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (5/6/8/1/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/6/8/1/9)-(5/6/8/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/6/8/1/9)-(5/6/8/1/9)-(5/6/8/1/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/09/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($29K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DUPLICITOUS May28 May10 Apr08 Jan28 Nov03 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00    
2  SHE DAZZLE Dec23 Dec07 Oct17 Aug27 Jul15 (o'connor robe)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
3  TAP N SWAY May23 Jan20 Nov21 Sep28 Sep01 (shirer ma)TORRES A 120 0.80 24% 3.20    
4  SHOW ME GRACE Jun16 Apr15 Mar24 Feb18 Jan16 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 24% 3.20    
5  HIGH SPEED May26 May14 Apr22 Mar26 Feb04 (delacruz joe)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
6  PRINCESS NINA Apr12 Mar17 Feb16 Jan04 Dec07 (hancock dana)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 11% 8.00    
 
ELP-2   07/09/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RABBIT HOUND Jun16 Sep13 Aug20     (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.00 26% 2.80    
2  CREPE YARNS Jun17 Jun01 Nov26 Oct30 Sep29 (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 111 8.00    
3  GUCCI BOY Jun15 Apr08 Feb24 Jan28 Oct15 (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00    
4  ABSOLUTE COURAGE Jun23 May26 May14 Jan27 Dec18 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 124 1.80 33% 2.10    
5  MY UNCLE FRANK Jun17         (walsh bre)TORRES A 118 3.50 20% 3.90    
6  FIGHTING BACK Jun10         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
 
ELP-3   07/09/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KRICKLE May26 May11 Apr19     (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of FRISCO GIRL by QUALITY ROAD)
2  GLOSSY LIFE         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
3  KESSEL Jun15         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of CHEEKY CHERUB by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
4  WHIMSICALLY         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of COMING ATTRACTION by TAPIT)
SCR  YELLOW SUN DRESS Apr28         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of FRIPPERY by CITY ZIP)
6  BACKSTRETCH ROSE Jun16         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 15% 5.70    
  (by ARMY MULE out of CHOLENA by INDIAN CHARLIE)
7  NEXT DOT Apr28 Apr12       (hancock a)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of TWO BELOW by HAT TRICK (JPN))
8  BEAUTIFUL DANCER Jun16         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of DREAM DANCING by TAPIT)
9  DOOBLAY         (desormeau)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of BRIDGE GAME by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
10  URBAN DREAMER         (matejka pavel)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of AWESOME DIAMOND (IRE) by UNKNOWN)
11  ISLE OF HOPE         (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.00 38% 1.60    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE by DIXIE UNION)
12  OUR GIRL FLINT         (wilkes r)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of SUGARANDICE by DIXIE UNION)
13  HER BEST FRIEND         (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SWEET PISTOL by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN Jun10 Apr26       (sims matthew )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of MISS GRIDLEY by STREET BOSS)
 
ELP-4   07/09/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OVERBORE Jun17 Apr28 Aug24 Aug13 Apr13 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 122 12.00    
2  GREENER PASTURES Jun04 May21 Apr22 Mar10 Jan27 (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 122 3.50 16% 5.40    
3  OSCAR ECLIPSE Jun04 Aug27 Jul24     (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 118 2.00 28% 2.50    
4  PAGE ONE May21 Apr13 Feb24 Jan27 Nov04 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 2.50 31% 2.20    
5  SPEND BENJAMINS Jun10 May06 Apr22 Mar26 Mar10 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
6  PLAUSIBLE DENILE Jun01 Mar03 Feb10 Jan13 Dec16 (divito ja)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
7  MAC DADDY TOO Jun18 May19 Apr16 Feb18 Jan08 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-5   07/09/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUATERNION Jun10 May06 Mar18 Feb18 Jan21 (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 120 4.50    
2  WINSTON WOLF Jun17 May17 Aug28     (oliver )DE CRUZ 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  MIRANDA RIGHTS Jun17 Mar04 Feb11 Jan05 Dec02 (casse mark)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 3.00 67% 0.50    
4  HIGHWAY ROBBER May28 Nov26 Sep23     (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 120 5.00    
5  WINNEMAC AVENUE May04 Apr22 Feb03 Dec31 Oct30 (divito ja)TORRES A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  PROMISE ME A RIDE May06 Mar19       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00    
7  INTERLOCK EMPIRE Apr22 Apr01 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00    
8  TALL BOY Jun10 May06 Dec17 Nov26 Sep05 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 120 3.50 9% 9.70    
 
ELP-6   07/09/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROYAL DECADENCE Jun21 May25 May06 Jan28 Dec31 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
2  SHORTLY Mar04 Feb04 Jan28 Dec02 Nov11 (hancock dana)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
3  CHARLIE WHISKEY Jun17 May21 Apr29 Apr08 Mar09 (vanden br)ROCCO S 118 2.50 28% 2.60    
4  MOON OVER DUBAI May29 Apr30 Mar19 Feb17 Dec31 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
5  VALUABLE CARGO Jun22 Apr27 Jan06     (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 9% 10.50    
6  I NINETY FIVE Jun15 Oct05 Sep11     (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00    
7  MY FAVORITE UNCLE May29 Apr29 Mar11 Feb25 Feb10 (galindo-torres c)NAVAS YOEL 117 8.00 18% 4.50    
8  LOCO Jun22 Nov09 Oct12 Sep17 Jun22 (cano jua)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
9  AIRBIZ Aug21         (maker j)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
10  NORTHWIND Jun16 May29 Apr14 Feb03   (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 22% 3.50    
 
ELP-7   07/09/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  QUEEN OF MISSOULA         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of SERENE QUEEN by EXPLICIT)
2  HIGH CLASS Nov23 Oct30 Sep25 Jul31   (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 39% 1.60    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of EUROBOSS by STREET BOSS)
3  PHAT CHANCE FANCY Jun17         (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SPARKLING CITY by CAPE TOWN)
4  BADGELAND Mar08 Dec31 Nov24     (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by PAYNTER out of SCONNIE by TIZNOW)
5  ROYAL BLOOD Jun02 May14 Apr23 Apr07 Mar18 (vaccarezz)TORRES A 119 4.50 10% 8.80    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of LE SANG ROYALE by HENRYTHENAVIGATOR)
6  RED RIVER MAGIC         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of LEMHILL BASR by QUALITY ROAD)
7  A LOTTA WILD         (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of SHE BE WILD by OFFLEE WILD)
8  EMPIRICAL VIEW         (divito james )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW by YES IT'S TRUE)
9  CANDY BAR         (calhoun w)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of SUGAR BABE by QUIET AMERICAN)
10  ROSARIO'S PRAYER May22 Mar11 Feb11 Dec18   (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 9% 10.10    
  (by SKY KINGDOM out of DESK JOB by TO HONOR AND SERVE)
11  FLAG FLYING         (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 20% 4.10    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of HONEY RIDE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
 
ELP-8   07/09/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STOLEN BASE May19 Dec26 Nov27 Oct29 Aug05 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 4.50    
SCR  BOISE Jun04 May19 May04 Feb24 Jan28 (habeeb donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 20.00    
3  MAHAAMEL (IRE) Jun11 May19 Feb24 Feb11 Jan08 (londono g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.50 36% 1.80    
4  LIFE IS HARD Apr22 Mar17 Feb05 Jun05 May07 (divito james )TALAMO JOSEPH 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  POINT ME BY May05 Apr13 Nov18 Oct09 Sep05 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 122 2.00 41% 1.40    
6  GREYS THE BOY Jun04 May03 Mar22 Jan26 Dec19 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
7  GUNTON ROE Jan21 Dec28 Sep14 Aug14 Jul12 (lobo paul)TORRES A 122 15.00    
8  GREY STREAK Jun17 May21 Mar10 Feb17 Jan18 (rodriguez hugo)ROCCO S 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TIWANAKU Jun10 May11 Mar26 Nov02 Oct01 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00    
SCR  INTREPID HEART Jun11 May18 Feb20 Jan21 Dec26 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 122 8.00    
SCR  KING'S OVATION Jun11 May18 Apr23 Feb02 Nov23 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00    
 
ELP-9   07/09/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JENNIFER MY LOVE Jun25         (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CRESPANO by MINESHAFT)
2  CATHERINE BLAZE Jun22 Jun10 Apr28 Apr13 Mar24 (leonard geo)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CARRIE by GONE ASTRAY)
3  CALM COOL Feb26 Feb09       (stall m)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of PORT CHARLOTTE by BLAME)
SCR  LETTER OF GOLD Dec11 Oct22 Sep14 Aug21   (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 10.00    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of CARTA DE ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  MAKE THE BOYS WINK Apr19 Mar16 Feb05 Jan08   (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.00 47% 1.10    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of PACIFIC PINK by PRIVATE VOW)
6  TIGER TAP May20 Apr01 Feb11 Dec26 Sep08 (walsh brenda)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 4.50 22% 3.60    
  (by TAPIT out of TIGER RIDE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
7  SNOW PRINCESS Jun03 Apr23 Mar16     (mott willi)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CANDY DRAWER by CANDY RIDE)
8  HOLY FOLEY May29 May03 Apr01 Feb16 Nov10 (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5% 17.70    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of BELISSIMO by AWESOME AGAIN)
9  PREEMPT Jun17 Apr12       (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of CENTRE COURT by SMART STRIKE)
10  MINDFUL Mar23         (devaux ch)TORRES A 124 6.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of TAPLESS by TAPIT)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.