Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Turfway Park
Thursday - December 22, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI


Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
TP-1   12/22/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAPPI GO LUCKY Sep01 Jul27       (rivera j)RODRIGUEZ A 114 20.00    
ARTEMUS SWEETHEART Oct17 Sep29 Sep16 Aug14 Jul17 (bush s)LEBRON VICTOR 121 4.50 10% 9.30    
SCR  MY HEAD HURTS Nov11 Oct11 Sep29     (alessi james)MOJICA JR 121 30.00    
SCR  POINT OF INFINITY Aug17         (bright derric)BECKMAN ALICE 117 6.00 18% 4.50    
PACIFIC GROVE (GB) Nov20 Oct29 Oct06 Sep22 Jul22 (gonz)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 15.00    
SCR  RHAPSODY IN GREY Nov14 Oct26 Sep27 Sep09 Aug09 (glyshaw)DE CRUZ 124 5.00 14% 6.30    
KNELCOCK Dec01 Nov03 Oct13     (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 3.00 5% 19.00    
SWIGERT Dec01 Aug31       (caramori eduar)LEZCANO ABEL 121 10.00    
MAMBO KITTEN Dec02 Oct17 Sep29 Sep21 Sep06 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 121 2.50 34% 2.00    
10  DOGWOODS BECCA Nov17 Nov03 Sep16 Sep02 Aug11 (scott l)OUZTS W 121 20.00    
 
TP-2   12/22/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MY DIOR Oct10 Aug17 Jul12 Mar24 Feb19 (reed r)MCKEE J 121 8.00    
CHORIST Nov30 Nov15 Sep22 Aug10 May24 (waltz brian)FELIX E 118 12.00    
SCR  EISWEIN Oct27 Sep18 Jul31 May26 Apr28 (vera mig)RODRIGUEZ A 111 2.50 5% 17.50    
SWIFT TEMPLE Nov14 Oct12 Sep21 Sep09 Aug08 (wisner trac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
SOPHISTICATED Dec03 Nov02 Aug23 Jul29 Jul08 (anderso)DE CRUZ 118 8.00    
NOT A ROLE MODEL Nov08 Oct31 Oct10 Sep09 Aug10 (salas felipe)MOJICA JR 121 30.00    
WILADENE Nov21 Nov11 Oct12     (mcbride barb)MORALES JOSHUA 121 30.00    
LUCKY SHORE Dec09 Oct11 Sep09 Aug22 Jul12 (sturgeon ro)PETERSON FERRIN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
MAMITA LINDA Dec04 May01       (d'angelo jo)CHIRINOS ROIMES 118 6.00    
SCR  CROSSED THE LINE Nov22 Nov01       (klopp randy)RAMOS D 121 4.50 11% 7.90    
11  TOIL Sep30 Mar22       (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00 51% 1.00    
 
TP-3   12/22/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($25K) 2 ALL PT- 6:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VAMONOS Dec02 Sep26 Sep07 Aug18 Jul13 (brafford mich)LEBRON VICTOR 122 5.00    
TALKSCHEAP Nov25 Nov09 Oct03 Sep18 Aug30 (pitts helen)CANNON DECLAN 122 3.50    
SCR  PRINCE SIMBA Aug01         (manley stev)CHIRINOS ROIMES 122 10.00    
COACH ROGERS Nov19 Jul22 Jun10     (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00    
CHIMAEV         (morey w)DE CRUZ 122 10.00 8% 10.80    
SCR  LET IT RIDE CLYDE Dec11 Dec02 Oct23     (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 115 15.00    
THALBERG         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 15% 5.90    
HE GOTS TO GO         (waltz brian)FELIX E 120 15.00 15% 5.90    
UNCLE HEADLEY Sep03 Jun27 Apr28     (ward a)DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.00 19% 4.10    
SCR  ATTILA THE DUN Oct23         (waltz brian)MOJICA JR 122 20.00    
11  UTOPIAN TREASURE Nov11         (schultz lindsa)SANJUR SANTO 120 30.00    
12  SAN MARCO CITY         (cano jua)RODRIGUEZ A 115 12.00 12% 7.00    
 
TP-4   12/22/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
INTEND Nov14 Oct31 Oct24 Sep20 Aug23 (elliott michel)SANJUR SANTO 121 15.00    
RED MULE Dec01 Oct13 Sep18 Jul09 Jun19 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 121 2.00 35% 1.90    
NEBULOSA Dec06 Oct24 Sep28 Sep01 Aug12 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 118 20.00    
ELVIS JUST ELVIS Nov22 Nov14 Oct31 Oct19 Aug08 (richardvi)BERMUDEZ E 121 15.00    
JUSTINTHENICKOTIME Aug21 Jul27 Jun17 Apr21 Apr01 (rivera justi)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 8.00    
DIAMOND STATE Jun01 Apr16       (smith larry)OUZTS W 121 8.00 7% 13.50    
READY PURSUIT Dec08 Nov10 Oct23 Sep30 Sep06 (antonuik je)LAGUNES GABRIEL 118 8.00    
DENY Feb05 Jan16 Jan08     (blair jordan)MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00    
INHERENT POWERS Oct24 Sep08 Aug12 Jul26 Jul07 (paquett)DE CRUZ 118 15.00    
10  DESOTO'S WAR Dec05 Nov17 Oct14 Sep23 Sep07 (bright derrick)MCKEE J 121 3.50 35% 1.90    
SCR  DAY IN THE COUNTRY Nov14 Oct31 Oct10 Jul30 Jun10 (meredith cha)RAMOS D 121 15.00    
12  CRY MACHO Dec01 Nov21 Nov10 Sep21 Sep08 (londono odin)HALDAR J 118 30.00    
13  TEQUILA FLATS Oct07 Sep23 Sep08 Aug23 Aug10 (helmbrech)BETANCOURT RONNEY 121 12.00    
SCR  PULL ME BACK Sep08 Jul28 Jul08 Mar31 Mar02 (hale jr)CANUTO THIAGO 121 20.00    
 
TP-5   12/22/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LITTLE SISTER SUE Oct26 Sep28       (reed r)MCKEE J 122 10.00    
FAST GISELLE Nov28         (galindo-torr)HALDAR J 122 4.00    
ITDOWHATITDO Nov24 Oct01       (sims a)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00    
VOTARY         (peach chadwick )MOJICA JR 122 30.00    
SPEARS MILL         (arnold )DE CRUZ 122 15.00    
STRIKINGLY Oct06 Sep03 Aug01 Jun04   (tomlinson m)FRANKLIN MALCOM 122 15.00    
RUM SWIZZLE Dec01 Nov09 Mar23 Feb06   (hamilton sara)GILLIGAN JACK 122 20.00    
TWO WORDS Mar12         (blair jordan)CANNON DECLAN 122 20.00    
PARK ANGEL Aug27 Jun18       (mackey wayne)ARAGON ROLANDO 122 3.00 73% 0.40    
10  SITTING PRETTY Dec01 Apr13 Mar20 Feb10   (delacour )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 4.00    
11  LIVE WIRE Sep05 Aug06       (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 122 6.00    
12  STANDUP COMEDIENNE Dec08 Oct18 Apr10 Mar12 Feb27 (barkley jaso)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 10.00    
 
TP-6   12/22/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
INCORRIGIBLE May30 May10 Apr02 Feb26 Jan16 (esquivel jesus)SANJUR SANTO 121 4.00 23% 3.30    
TEXAS HEDGE Nov30 Sep20 Sep08 Aug18   (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00    
ON A SPREE Nov18 Sep25 Aug26 Jul17 May21 (cano mun)CANNON DECLAN 121 3.50 11% 8.30    
CAPPY HOUR Sep07 Aug14 Aug03 Jun23 May27 (adams l)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
HONKY TONK HERO Nov28 Oct27 Sep02 Aug24 Aug05 (haehn terry )HALDAR J 121 20.00    
PAUPING Nov30 Oct18 Sep27 Sep06 Aug22 (walsh ryan )CHIRINOS ROIMES 121 20.00    
SHADY MCGEE (IRE) Nov12 Oct23 Sep18 Aug20 Jul30 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 121 3.00    
TAKAFUMI (BRZ) Dec08 Nov30 Oct22 Aug23 Jul14 (sherman justin)MUSARRO JOE 121 3.50 39% 1.50    
SMOKEY LEE Nov30 Nov03 Oct04 Sep21 Sep08 (cundiff )RODRIGUEZ A 111 20.00    
10  FLY NIGHTLY Oct12 Sep15 Sep01 Jul15 Jun24 (hamilton )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00 6% 16.50    
SCR  KING SOCIAL Oct25 Sep26 Sep07 Jul20 Jun29 (wisner trac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 12.00    
 
TP-7   12/22/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COMPELLING SMILE Nov20 Oct26 Sep15 Aug07 May06 (romans dale)MACHADO LUAN 121 30.00    
BARISTA Nov19 Oct20 Apr02 Jan30   (baker jam)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 3.00 38% 1.60    
LAURA'S CHARM Nov19 Oct13 Aug27 Jul17   (kerrick lacy)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
CALDEE Nov19         (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 4.50    
CASCADE PARK Sep28 Sep06 Aug17 Jul27 Jul05 (reed r)MCKEE J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
DOROTHEA Nov24 Oct21 Sep18 Jul17 Jun26 (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50    
VEZPA (BRZ) Dec08 Oct23 Sep22 May19 Apr24 (lobo h)RAMOS D 121 4.00    
TAP DANCING LADY Dec11 Nov24 Oct28 Sep15 Jul08 (kahles ro)BERMUDEZ E 118 12.00    
SCR  EDGEE ANGEL Nov30 Nov09 Oct13 Sep21 Aug28 (king l)GILLIGAN JACK 121 30.00    
10  BIG BAD DIVA Nov16 Oct28 Sep21 Jul23 Apr22 (simms mark )CHIRINOS ROIMES 121 10.00    
11  GEORGETOWN ROAD Oct05 Sep15 May26 Apr27 Mar26 (mccarthy michae)DAVIS DYLAN 118 10.00    
12  FAIR GAME Nov19 Sep13 Aug12 Jul17 May19 (oliver victor)CANNON DECLAN 121 30.00    
13  POLKA POLENTA Dec08 Oct31 Oct13 Aug29 Aug16 (davis j)DE CRUZ 121 10.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  DISCREET KITTY Oct13 Sep13 Aug16 Jun21 Jun07 (brumley willia)ELLIOTT JANE 121 20.00    
 
TP-8   12/22/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BANE Sep20         (cross kenny )ARAGON ROLANDO 124 30.00    
SCR  MIGHTY RIOT Oct26 Oct03       (warpool sha)CHIRINOS ROIMES 121 30.00    
SOUTHERN SENSE Nov19 Oct14 Sep17 Jul31 Jun29 (gowan willia)RAMOS D 121 5.00    
STRIKE PRICE Sep30 Sep10 Aug13 Jun12 May15 (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 121 2.00 26% 2.90    
FLAGSTONE Oct26 Oct03 Aug19 Jul23 Jun29 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 15.00    
SHERLOCKED Dec08 May19 May06     (sturgeon c)OUZTS W 121 20.00    
DORMIR Oct26         (matthews )BERMUDEZ E 124 15.00    
SCR  RA'S AL GHUL Dec08 Nov19 Oct16 Aug16   (matejka )RODRIGUEZ A 114 20.00    
BAD JOKE WOKE FOLK Sep21 Aug19 Aug02 Jun22 May12 (short t)DE CRUZ 121 12.00    
10  OVER CALENDARED Nov17 Sep09 Aug25 Jul16 Jun25 (cline robert)HALDAR J 121 12.00 9% 9.60    
11  LEAD ACTOR Nov13 Nov02 Oct12 Jul24 May07 (mejia del)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00    
SCR  NORDIC LIGHT Dec09 Oct19 Aug30 Aug04 Jul01 (ennis john)FRANKLIN MALCOM 121 2.50 15% 5.50    
SCR  SEVEN AND SEVEN Nov02         (romans dale)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 2.00 27% 2.60    
SCR  MEATLOAF'S CHANCE Dec07 Sep06 Aug02 May12 May04 (gonzalez )BERMUDEZ E 121 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.