Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 20, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/1)-(5/2/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/2/1)-(5/2/3/1)-(5/2/3/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/2/1)-(7/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/2/1)-(7/2/4)-(6/4/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/4)-(7/2/5/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/2/4)-(7/2/5/4)-(7/2/5/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/2/4)-(6/4/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/2/4)-(6/4/5)-(10/11/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/5)-(6/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/5)-(6/4/5)-(6/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/5)-(10/11/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/4/5)-(10/11/4)-(4/5/3/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-4   WIN (10/11/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/11/4)-(10/11/4/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/11/4)-(10/11/4/8/2)-(10/11/4/8/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/11/4)-(4/5/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/11/4)-(4/5/3/7)-(2/5/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/5/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/3/7)-(4/5/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/3/7)-(4/5/3/7)-(4/5/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/3/7)-(2/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/3/7)-(2/5/1)-(7/3/4/5/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (2/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/1)-(2/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/1)-(2/5/1)-(2/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/5/1)-(7/3/4/5/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/5/1)-(7/3/4/5/6)-(8/7/5/4/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-7   WIN (7/3/4/5/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/3/4/5/6)-(7/3/4/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/3/4/5/6)-(7/3/4/5/6)-(7/3/4/5/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/3/4/5/6)-(8/7/5/4/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (7/3/4/5/6)-(8/7/5/4/6)-(2/9/3/6/11) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-8   WIN (8/7/5/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/7/5/4/6)-(8/7/5/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/7/5/4/6)-(8/7/5/4/6)-(8/7/5/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/7/5/4/6)-(2/9/3/6/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/7/5/4/6)-(2/9/3/6/11)-(9/1/4/11/7) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-9   WIN (2/9/3/6/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/9/3/6/11)-(2/9/3/6/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/9/3/6/11)-(2/9/3/6/11)-(2/9/3/6/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/9/3/6/11)-(9/1/4/11/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-10   WIN (9/1/4/11/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/1/4/11/7)-(9/1/4/11/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/1/4/11/7)-(9/1/4/11/7)-(9/1/4/11/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/20/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSENOW         (heitzman eric)NAVAS YOEL 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  STRADIVARIAN Aug26 Jul21 Nov22 Sep30 Aug13 (forster t)GRAHAM J 120 4.50 8% 11.40    
3  FEAR OF UNION Aug01 Jun28 Jun06 Apr24 Mar24 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 3.50 ★    
4  SEVEN TAYLORS Aug03 Jun27 May17 Apr30   (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 120 2.00    
5  TRAP LINE Aug26 Mar07 Jan20 Dec08   (vanden br)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 68% 0.50    
6  SOUND OF VICTORY Aug10         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 15.00    
7  LEBOMBO Aug29 Jun12 May17 Apr19   (medina ro)TORRES A 120 6.00    
 
CD-2   09/20/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEQUIN LADY Aug04 Jun07 Apr24 Apr03 Mar15 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 3.50    
2  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF Jun14 May25 May03 Apr06 Mar02 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 11% 7.90    
3  ANN KOR Aug30 Aug09 Jul27 Jul13 Jun22 (manning john)HEBERT LINDSEY 121 20.00    
4  SAVE THE BEES Aug29 Aug14 Jul25 Jul03 Jun21 (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  FOREVER HOME Sep03 Aug07 Jul17 Jun21 Jun06 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 123 5.00 ★    
6  A NEW PEACE Sep07 Aug22 Aug14 Jul07 Jun27 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 121 4.00    
7  MAZOKU Aug12 Jul13 Jun21 May25 Apr30 (butcher j)BEALMEAR C 114 3.00 58% 0.70    
 
CD-3   09/20/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BORROWED TIME Aug24 Jul27 Jul05     (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
2  BLAKE JAMES Jul27         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 3.50    
SCR  BEIJING BOSS Jun19 May24       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00    
4  RAGNOW         (desormeaux)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 12.00 28% 2.50    
5  XAVI Aug19 Jun26 Jun08     (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  COACH CLINT Aug03 Jul14       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 35% 1.90    
SCR  CAJUN SWAGGER Aug12         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
8  MISTER WOODFORD Jun22 Apr17       (demeritte)BEALMEAR C 112 5.00    
 
CD-4   09/20/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IN FOR A SPIN         (caramori cai)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of CONQUEST SUPERSTEP by SUPER SAVER)
2  TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE         (catalano)RODRIGUEZ A 119 8.00 ★    
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of SCHON by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
3  ENSORCELL         (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of ON FIRE BABY by SMOKE GLACKEN)
4  CONTEMPLATE Aug25         (harty eoin)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 24% 3.20    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ANOTHER THINK by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  SUNCOAST COWGIRL         (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
  (by BEE JERSEY out of LADY EKATI by TALE OF EKATI)
6  BOOT TRICK         (dutrow rich)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of SYSTEM TIME by GIROLAMO)
7  ALYESKA         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of GULL ISLAND by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
8  GEEZ ELOISE Aug25         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
  (by VEKOMA out of MY FAIR LILY by SMOKE GLACKEN)
9  AMARTH         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of CRIMINAL MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
10  STYLET         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50 29% 2.50    
  (by CARACARO out of NAKED BOOTLEG by PASS RUSH)
11  NORTHERN VOYAGE Aug03         (eurton peter)ORTIZ L 119 6.00 27% 2.80    
  (by MCKINZIE out of TAPANY by TAPIT)
12  RANCH LIFE         (douaihy m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of SUMMEROFSIXTYTHREE by MALIBU MOON)
 
CD-5   09/20/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BYZANTINE Aug26 Aug05 Jul05 Jun01 Apr27 (cano juan)BEALMEAR C 114 15.00    
2  FLORIS Aug17 Jul28 Jul05 Mar29 Feb16 (duvall william)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00    
3  BUSINESS AS USUAL Apr27 Mar22 Mar07 Feb11 Jan12 (shorter aaron)VAZQUEZ A 118 15.00 5% 18.70    
4  CHANISA Aug17 Jul07 Jun20 May16 May02 (shirer matt )TORRES A 121 3.50 52% 0.90    
5  MOTOWN MIKA Jul20 Jun19 Mar13 Feb14 Dec16 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 18% 4.70    
SCR  MISS MAXIMUS Aug23 Jul11 Jun01 Apr27 Sep01 (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 2.50    
7  MOON FLEET Aug17 Jul13 May31 May04 Apr17 (roberson denni)CASTANON L 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  LADLE Sep11 Aug23 Aug07 Jul24 Jun22 (miller f)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
 
CD-6   09/20/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TANGO ZULU Aug24 Mar21 Feb24 Feb16 Jan13 (wismer g)SANTANA JR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  LUCY GOT GAME Aug24 Feb24 Feb04     (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 28% 2.60    
3  EYES OF GOLD Aug24 Jul22 Apr13 Mar23 Feb07 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 122 2.00    
4  LADAN Aug10 Jul22 Jun12 May23 Apr07 (bogle fergus)ORTIZ L 122 4.00    
5  HONORS LEGACY Aug12 Apr17 Feb14 Jan18   (mcentee paul)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 21% 3.70    
6  WEE BIT O MISCHIEF Jul31 Jul03 Jun01 May01 Mar09 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 3.00    
 
CD-7   09/20/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EVERLOVING         (amoss tho)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of MARWA by EXCEED AND EXCEL (AUS))
2  BRAVE SAMANTHA Aug11         (medina robert)VAZQUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of LITTLE HIDDEN GEM by BODEMEISTER)
3  MUHIMMA         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 26% 2.90    
  (by MUNNINGS out of PRINCESA CAROLINA by TAPIT)
4  LADY AUTHENTIC         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 8% 10.90    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of SURAYA by TIZNOW)
5  COCKTAIL KISSES         (casse ma)SANTANA JR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of CHOCOLATE KISSES by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
6  TAVRIA         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FROSTED out of KIROV by DISTORTED HUMOR)
7  MY LIL PUNKY Aug25         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50 34% 2.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of TRANSLATOR by STRAVINSKY)
8  GOING TO THE SUN         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by UPSTART out of CASTLE ROAD by BELLAMY ROAD)
SCR  GOLDEN GAMBLE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ME AND MINE by BERNARDINI)
10  BEING MYSELF         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
  (by CURLIN out of FACT FILE by DIXIE UNION)
SCR  MENDELA         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of JENDA'S AGENDA by PROUD CITIZEN)
SCR  CALIFORNIA SUNSET         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of REGAL BEAUTY by MALIBU MOON)
 
CD-8   09/20/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANDY CRAZE Aug17 Jul21 Jun05 May24 May01 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
2  RED HOT JEANIE Aug24 Jun27 May11 Mar27 Jul07 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
3  KRICKLE Aug24 Jun28 May30 May09 Jan26 (holsapple)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
4  TENENBAUM Jul29 Dec27 Nov10     (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 8% 12.10    
5  SASSY WALKER May02 Apr13 Mar27 Feb15 Jan11 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 121 6.00 17% 4.80    
6  DARK FURY Jul29 Jul11 Jun06 Apr27   (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  SCRUPULOUS Sep21 Aug19       (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00 19% 4.30    
8  GOURMET Jul28 Jul14 Jun05 May12 Apr20 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 32% 2.10    
9  HIGH FASHION KATE Aug19 Jul29 Jul06 Jun08 May09 (minnock g)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
10  EDGE OF TOWN Jul27 Jun26 May16 Dec23 Nov13 (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 12.00    
 
CD-9   09/20/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CURLIN'S MAGIC Jun23 Jun08 May03 Feb02 Nov28 (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
2  TWEETSTER Jul05 Jun01 May03 Mar29   (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 58% 0.70    
3  PLAYBACK Aug17 Jul13 Jan10 Nov29 Oct29 (lobo h)ROMAN A 118 15.00 6% 16.50    
4  YES TO CHAMPAGNE Jul27 Jun29 May12 Jan28 Dec24 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
5  AMBER CASCADE Aug10 Jun26 Nov01 Sep23 Jan21 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 4.00    
6  RED RIVER MAGIC Aug10 Feb18 Dec29 Nov23 Oct26 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  STARINA Aug18 Jul31 Jun30 May14 Apr25 (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
8  PEIGNOIR Aug05 Jul05 Nov10 Oct15 Aug26 (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
9  CURL GIRL Jul15 Jun08 Apr19 Feb28 Jan10 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 122 3.50 10% 9.40    
10  MIDSUMMER MARCH Sep05 Apr25 Mar23 Feb24 Feb02 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
11  LETSTALKABOUTME Jul29 Jun15 May18 Apr07 Feb29 (green tro)TORRES A 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-10   09/20/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOURBON'S FAULT Aug15 Jun30 Dec23 Nov25 Oct29 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 5.00 18% 4.60    
2  HOLSTER Aug18         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 8.00    
SCR  MOBSTER Aug24 Jun21 May27 Jan21 Dec26 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 124 3.00    
4  HANGIN IN THERE Aug10 Jun22 Apr27 Mar30 Feb29 (orseno jos)CORRALES GERARDO 121 15.00 15% 5.80    
5  DEPUTY MISCHIEF Jun30 May16       (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00    
SCR  LORD NARCISSE         (devaux cheri)GEROUX FLORENT 121 10.00    
7  ATLANTIC CAT         (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  NEON NIGHTS Aug13 Jun30       (blair jor)TORRES A 121 30.00    
9  CRUSHED IT Aug18 Feb24 Jan05 Dec08   (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 34% 1.90    
SCR  MO EL GRANDE Aug25 Apr13 Mar30 Mar15 Feb24 (morse ran)BEALMEAR C 114 20.00    
11  CAFE RACER Jun27 Jun05 Mar23 Jan11 Dec15 (stall albe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 10.00 12% 7.30    
12  VARVATOS Aug13 Jun30       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.