Handicappers' Racing Form

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Ellis Park
Monday - August 26, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (3/8/2/10/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-2   Win (6/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-3   Win (4/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-4   Win (9/6/8/1/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-5   Win (4/7/9/3/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-6   Win (2/11/6/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-7   Win (6/9/12/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-8   Win (1/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-9   Win (6/9/10/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ELP-1   08/26/2024 5940ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHERE'S JACK Aug17 Mar16       (hancock a)POSTON AMANDA 108 30.00    
BALTIMORE HEART Aug10 Jul03 Jun05 Apr19 Mar13 (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 15% 5.80    
PUBLIUS Aug10 Jan18 Jan06 Nov25 Oct28 (foster e)LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 3.00 42% 1.40    
GOTTA HAVE DREAMS Jul29 Jun28 Jun06 May04 Apr07 (shorter aaron)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
THEZELENSKYYFACTOR Nov30 Nov01 Sep29     (stall m)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
ULTIMATE STRIKE Aug10 Nov23 Oct26 Sep29 Sep10 (santamaria c)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
STRADIVARIAN Jul21 Nov22 Sep30 Aug13   (forster t)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
EGYPTIAN KING Jul31 Jul09 Mar21 Feb28 Feb10 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 124 6.00 18% 4.60    
QUEBRANCHO Jul13 Jun19 May26 Apr12 Mar28 (bahena ismael)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 8.00    
10  SON OF A MAN Jul22 Jun10 May16     (hancock jack )MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
11  TRAP LINE Mar07 Jan20 Dec08     (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 4.00    
 
ELP-2   08/26/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:20
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STAR NATION Aug04 Jun28 Jun12 May24 Apr27 (hartlage ga)BEALMEAR C 116 6.00    
SCR  BIRD KING Jun29 May30 May12 Apr20 Mar30 (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 123 3.50    
SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI Jul13 Nov08 Aug28 Jul31 Jun23 (brennan terr)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00    
LEGENDARY LORE Aug04 Jun22 May16 Apr21 Apr05 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 5.00 16% 5.20    
HOME RUN TRICK Aug04 Jun29 May04 Apr26 Mar17 (brennan terry)ELLIOTT JANE 123 4.50 27% 2.70    
UPSTRIKER Jul06 May19 May03 Mar22 Feb23 (hartman chris)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 1.80 28% 2.50    
MAD ADAM Jul08 Jun10 Mar22 Mar10 Jan12 (amoss thoma)TORRES A 123 6.00    
 
ELP-3   08/26/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT- 1:49
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GHOSTTAPPER Jul06         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00    
SUNDAY DISRUPTOR Aug03         (mcpeek kenn)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50    
SCR  PRINCESS NY         (davis christop)TORRES A 119 12.00    
LOW KEY Aug03         (amoss m)LANERIE J 119 2.50 33% 2.10    
AIRFORCE LIGHTNING         (puhich mike)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
JEWELED DESTINY Jul29         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 1.80 27% 2.70    
JUST SHOWING OFF Jul21         (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00    
 
ELP-4   08/26/2024 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:21
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DOUBLE NEAT Jul20 May29 Apr13 Mar07 Dec23 (walsh p)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 6% 16.10    
HAWKS CREEK Jul20 Jun14 May12 Apr26 Feb17 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
SEASON FIGHTER Jul29 Jun18 May21     (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
FORGE IN FIRE Aug05 May25 May01 Apr14 Feb21 (bahena ismae)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 12.00    
GIOVANNINO Jul06 Jun05 Mar22 Jan26 Dec29 (davis christ)CORRALES GERARDO 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
MR MCGREGOR Jul21 Jun20 Oct12 Sep10 Jul02 (mott i)TORRES A 123 3.50 18% 4.70    
ATLANTIC DANCER Aug04 Oct27 Oct08 Aug24 Jul30 (cook b)BEJARANO R 123 10.00    
GAMETIME GLADIATOR Aug05 Jul05 Jun15 May01 Mar16 (camejo j)LOPEZ EDUARDO 123 6.00 11% 8.40    
RANSOMWARE Aug12 Jun20 May31 Apr21 Jun11 (garcia gena)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 6.00 41% 1.40    
10  TWIRLING TROILLET Aug10 Jul05 Jun23 Jun13 May26 (king l)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
SCR  DR KRINGLE Aug05 Jul21 Jun29 Jun08 May23 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 5.00    
 
ELP-5   08/26/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:54
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAMARA'S WAY Aug05 Jul07 Jun01 May12 Sep20 (foster eric)LOVEBERRY JARETH 117 12.00 5% 19.00    
MOR JAZZ Aug08 Jul05 Nov19 Oct26 Sep17 (humphries thomas)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00    
BYZANTINE Aug05 Jul05 Jun01 Apr27 Mar22 (cano muno)TORRES A 117 12.00 5% 19.00    
GOLDEN BUCK Aug12 Jul28 Jun13 May26 Apr27 (castanon g)CASTANON L 118 3.00 46% 1.20    
TAP THE CANDY Jul28 Jul05 Sep15 Sep09 Aug20 (hancock a)POSTON AMANDA 112 8.00    
LEFT POCKET MONEY Jul31 Jul06 Jun05 Nov10 Oct17 (pittman )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 30.00    
TOWN BRANCH Jul28 Jul05 Jun02 May21 Apr15 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 4.00 14% 6.30    
TOOLPUSHER Aug10 Jun08 May03 Mar15 Feb18 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 8.00    
THIRD WATCH (GB) Jul20 Jul04 Mar29 Mar15 Feb17 (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 2.50 9% 10.50    
 
ELP-6   08/26/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:26
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAY MAY STRONG Jul20 Jun18 Jun02 Apr12 Feb28 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 8.00    
GO PURPLE Aug05         (ortiz ale)TORRES A 118 5.00 32% 2.10    
A MUST SEE Jul20         (hamilton)LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 20.00    
IMPRACTICAL DIVA         (mccarthy mich)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 12.00    
FLIGHT ON RACE DAY Jul27         (mcgoey monica)SAEZ SEBASTIAN 118 30.00    
UNDERCOVER Jul16 Jun17       (brisset rodolphe)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.50 16% 5.10    
MOMBAYLA Jul27         (tomlinson micha)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00    
SUPER DUPER NICE         (nicely nigel)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 118 30.00    
PERFORMABILITY Aug05         (williamson b)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00    
10  ONDA BRAVA Jul20 Jun08 Dec27 Nov17 Oct04 (lobo h)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
11  KISS BLUE Jul21 Jun15       (mott riley)ACHARD ALEX 118 3.50 25% 3.00    
12  RIVER MISCHIEF         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
SCR  MILVEN         (hill f)CANNON DECLAN 124 30.00    
SCR  SEXARITO Jun08         (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
SCR  MYSTICAL CHANT Jul04 May25 Apr27 Apr07 Mar06 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
SCR  LADY ABERDEEN Jul27 Jul05 Jun16 May26 Apr20 (miller kenny)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
 
ELP-7   08/26/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 3:52
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHISKEY SHOT         (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00    
GUNS Jul29         (lukas wayne)TORRES A 119 12.00    
HEAVENVILLE Jul27         (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00    
STIGLETS Jul20 Jun23       (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
SCR  BOURBONATOR Aug05         (desormea)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 30.00    
TICKLED QUIST         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  HAMLIN         (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
WINNING SONG         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
MORLOCK Jul20 Jun13       (kenneally eddie)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50 23% 3.40    
10  RAVE RUNNER Jul27         (asmussen steven)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
11  STRUMMIN Jul07 May26 May02 Apr17 Apr05 (hancock joh)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
12  ROYAL BRO Jul29         (divito james )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00 20% 4.10    
13  RIGHTEOUS STAR Aug12         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
 
ELP-8   08/26/2024 5610ft TURF RC11 FIRM Ellis Park Turf Purse ($150K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BRU NA BOINNE Jul27 Jun09 Sep23 Aug05 Jun29 (calhoun will)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00 32% 2.10    
TAKE A STAND Jul06 Jun01 Mar08 Jan18 Dec21 (oliver vi)DE CRUZ 122 4.50    
BEACH WALKN Jan18 Dec21 Nov24 Oct18 Sep10 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
QUALITY STAR Jun20 May19 Apr20 Dec07 Oct07 (lobo h)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00 19% 4.20    
SCR  HEAVENLY SUNDAY Jun30 Jun02 May03 Nov24 Oct27 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 0.80    
SCR  EXCELLENT QUESTION Aug04 Jul07 Jun02 Apr26 Jan31 (walsh brenda)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 10.00    
CALLIE'S GRIT Jul28 Jun20 Dec30 Nov24 Oct27 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 8.00    
PAINT ME PERFECT Jul28 Jun20 May03 Mar21 Feb15 (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 122 20.00 16% 5.40    
SCR  VALENTINA DAY Jul22 Jun13 Apr21 Mar08 Aug19 (toye li)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00    
 
ELP-9   08/26/2024 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:48
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIZ SALTY Jul27 Jun26       (thompson mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
SCR  TAPWRIT WARRIOR Jul22 Jun27 May30 May02 Mar15 (vasquez ge)RODRIGUEZ A 118 50.00    
REMEMBERING MAUDE Aug05 Jul21       (french wayn)BEALMEAR C 111 30.00    
SCR  HAND IT OVER Jul28 May25 Apr25 Apr05 Mar06 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 118 8.00    
CHARM OF THE SONG Jul21 Jul04 Jun05 May12 Apr10 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
CHAMPAGNE SURPRISE Jul27 Jun26 Nov24 Oct25 Aug18 (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 29% 2.50    
SCR  SHE'S SO MALICE Jul28         (maker michael )TORRES A 124 2.50    
MO SASHAY Jul27 Jun25 Jun08     (sharp joe)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 5.00    
RETAIL THERAPY Jul28 Jul04 May31 May17 Apr17 (ortiz alexa)ELLIOTT JANE 118 10.00 26% 2.90    
10  SILENT SECRETARY (BRZ) Aug15 Jul07 Jun07 May26 Apr11 (radosevich )HERNANDEZ J 124 6.00 24% 3.10    
11  MALICE MAMA Jul07         (pittman )LOPEZ EDUARDO 124 30.00    
12  OH MACARENA Aug05 Jun05 Mar09 Feb02 Jan06 (williamson b)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.