Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - June 19, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/3/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/1/5)-(6/3/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/1/5)-(6/3/1/5)-(6/3/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/3/1/5)-(3/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1/5)-(3/5/4)-(10/4/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/4)-(3/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/4)-(3/5/4)-(3/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/4)-(10/4/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/4)-(10/4/9)-(1/6/3/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (10/4/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/4/9)-(10/4/3/13/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/4/9)-(10/4/3/13/9)-(10/4/3/13/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/4/9)-(1/6/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/4/9)-(1/6/3/5)-(6/4/7/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/6/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/3/5)-(1/6/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/3/5)-(1/6/3/5)-(1/6/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/3/5)-(6/4/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/3/5)-(6/4/7/3)-(8/11/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/4/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/7/3)-(8/11/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/7/3)-(8/11/9)-(1/7/2/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/11/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/11/9)-(8/11/9/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/11/9)-(8/11/9/4/7)-(8/11/9/4/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/11/9)-(1/7/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/11/9)-(1/7/2/6)-(10/3/7/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/7/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/2/6)-(1/7/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/2/6)-(1/7/2/6)-(1/7/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/2/6)-(10/3/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/2/6)-(10/3/7/4)-(10/3/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (10/3/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/3/7/4)-(10/3/7/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/3/7/4)-(10/3/7/2/4)-(10/3/7/2/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/3/7/4)-(10/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-9   WIN (10/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/3/2)-(10/3/7/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/3/2)-(10/3/7/1/2)-(10/3/7/1/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/19/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUEBRANCHO May26 Apr12 Mar28 Mar21 Feb11 (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.00 11% 8.10    
2  RIGHT ON TARGET Apr20         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
3  SIXWILLBERICH May26 Dec07 Oct22 Aug23 Jul28 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 125 2.00 12% 7.60    
4  COAL BOSS May23 Apr27 Mar13 Feb17 Jan12 (foley greg)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 5.00    
5  MASTER OF THE NITE Jun05 May18 May01 Apr12 Dec09 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  AMERICAN RAIDER May23 Apr27 Mar21 Feb17 Jan25 (santamaria car)ASHTON GAVIN 125 3.50 52% 0.90    
7  SKY KEY May23 Mar29 Mar08 Feb09 Jan18 (molloy thomas)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
 
CD-2   06/19/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SISTER KISSES May11 Mar30 Mar09 Feb10 Jan01 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 123 8.00    
2  SING A LITTLE SONG May03 Apr07 Mar15 Jan11 Nov16 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
3  SILVER ROSE May25 Dec09 Nov05 Sep27   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.40 54% 0.90    
4  MUSTANG LADY Oct18 Sep10 Aug05 Jun29 May12 (newton tr)LEPAROUX R 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  LA LA ROSE May11 Jan06       (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 23% 3.30    
6  MARMALADE SKYE May18 Apr17 Mar14 Feb15 Dec21 (jacobs magda)ACHARD ALEX 123 3.00    
 
CD-3   06/19/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SKYNET         (barrett r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
  (by YOSHIDA out of SKY SHAFT by MINESHAFT)
2  SPIRIT RAGS May26 Apr26       (salas fe)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of OCTOBER BRIDE by BERNARDINI)
3  CONCRETE CRUISER May26         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of BRILLIANT MISSY by SMART STRIKE)
4  PURSE THIEF May26         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.00 18% 4.60    
  (by CARACARO out of HEY LITTLE SISTER by JUMP START)
5  BEIJING BOSS May24         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of SATULAH by GONE WEST)
6  FINANCIAL WHIZ May09         (hamilton sarah)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of GATORETTE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
7  NO MOR STONES         (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of DEBORAH'S MOMENT by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  GALPIN SUNDAY         (west aaro)BERMUDEZ E 119 12.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of MONTHLY by MALIBU MOON)
9  REB May09         (fletcher ke)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SHANCELOT out of WELL SPUN by HARD SPUN)
10  AKINMUSIRE May02 Apr10       (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 119 2.50 57% 0.80    
  (by WILL TAKE CHARGE out of GOTTA B KITTEN ME by LUCKY PULPIT)
11  TURNBUCKLE May02 Apr05       (hancock dana)LEBRON VICTOR 119 8.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of MOUNTAIN DOVE by POINT OF ENTRY)
SCR  SWEET FANTASY May09         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of SWEET JACKIE JO by STORMY ATLANTIC)
13  BRERETON'S BAYTOWN Jun06         (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 3.00 ★    
  (by UPSTART out of KIKA by BIRDSTONE)
SCR  SERATA SIX         (chapman k)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of SWEET TESS by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  MISBEHAVIN Jun05 Apr10       (andrade hugo)MACHADO LUAN 119 30.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of CORFE CASTLE by WINDSOR CASTLE)
SCR  GALLO DE FUEGO         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of SPELLING AGAIN by AWESOME AGAIN)
 
CD-4   06/19/2024 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  END OF INNOCENCE May23 Sep21 Aug02 Jun16   (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 34% 1.90    
2  DESPO'S DREAM May25 May03 Sep20 Aug04   (puhich mik)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
3  BOLD APPEAL Mar24 Feb17 Dec31     (moquett ronald)ORTIZ L 118 3.50 10% 8.70    
SCR  SPICEY VALENTINE         (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
5  GALADINI May31 Apr27 Mar24 Feb09 Jan19 (shirer matt )TORRES A 118 6.00 5% 18.40    
6  PATTY VAN TWINKLE May31 Jan01 Nov26 Oct30   (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 124 2.00 23% 3.40    
7  HEDGE THESE BETS May23 May03 Apr18     (seglin e)RIQUELME J 124 20.00    
8  SWEET LILIBET May20 Apr13 Mar27 Feb28 Aug02 (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
 
CD-5   06/19/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PHANTOM RIDE May30 May05 Apr12 Mar09 Feb16 (haran john)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 6.00    
2  BACKGROUND May18 May03 Jul15 Jun04 May05 (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
3  BLACK POWDER May24 Apr21 Jul08 May29 May04 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  ELUSIVE TARGET May18 Mar30 Mar01 Feb03 Jan13 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 19% 4.30    
5  O P FIRECRACKER May31 May01 Mar29 Feb24 Jan13 (medina ro)TORRES A 118 3.00    
6  INEXORABLE May05 Mar30 Mar17 Feb25 Feb02 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 5.00 35% 1.90    
7  MASTER GAME May30 May01 Mar29 Mar09 Feb12 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 10% 8.70    
8  PERFECT FLIGHT May31 Apr12 Mar17 Feb09 Jan13 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
 
CD-6   06/19/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MRS. RIP May31 Apr17 Jul01     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 12.00    
SCR  CRUSHED ICE May17 Mar27 Jan25 Dec22 Nov16 (quartarol)LEPAROUX R 123 15.00    
3  ALMOND FUDGE Jun01 May16 Jan12 Nov08 Oct06 (gowan william)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
4  R QUEEN CANDY May19 Feb21 Feb03 Jan03   (van t)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 ★    
5  DO YOU REALIZE May28 Apr25 Mar14     (tooley jen)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 20.00    
SCR  ICED MOCHA Nov03 Oct10       (werr)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 12.00    
7  MOTOWN MIKA Mar13 Feb14 Dec16 Nov01 Sep30 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 8.00 ★    
8  VIRASANA May18 Apr18 Apr23 Mar18   (eurton peter)GEROUX FLORENT 123 1.60 61% 0.60    
9  SHERBET FOUNTAIN Jun01 Mar06 Feb15 Dec30 Nov30 (joseph saffi)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00 6% 15.80    
10  COLLECT A LIL Jun01 Apr30 Mar16 Feb28 Jan31 (roberson denni)MACHADO LUAN 123 20.00    
11  LITE IT UP LOUIE May31 Feb16 Jan12 Dec08 Nov03 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 11% 8.10    
12  QUIERO DINERO May31 May05 Apr19 Apr06 Mar21 (haran john)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 15.00    
 
CD-7   06/19/2024 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 3 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DISCREET MISCHIEF May04 Apr06 Feb17     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.40 42% 1.40    
2  RISK IT May05 Apr05 Mar01 Feb03 Dec23 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 15% 5.50    
3  MAGIC GRANT May04 Mar23 Feb24 Feb03 Dec15 (milligan )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
4  EDIFIED Oct14 Sep16 Aug12 Jul01   (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
5  EPIC BATTLE May30 May09 Oct29 Sep15 Aug09 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
6  MISSION BEACH Apr06 Feb03 Dec22 Nov19 Sep04 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  PURE FORCE May04         (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 1.80 22% 3.50    
 
CD-8   06/19/2024 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RISK MANAGER May02 Mar23 Mar02 May19 Mar25 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00    
2  GRAY'S FABLE May18 Apr20 Nov05 Oct13 Sep23 (stidham mic)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 5.00 ★    
3  DEER DISTRICT Feb08 Jan20 Jul28 May28 May06 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 6.00 29% 2.40    
4  AMERICAN DIAMOND May02 Mar03 Jan06 Dec14 Oct19 (joseph saffie )ORTIZ L 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  GEORGIE W Jul08 Jun15 May11     (walden william)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
6  EL KABONG May09 Apr11 Feb17 Jan04 Dec01 (arnold r)LANERIE J 122 15.00    
7  RECKONING FORCE May18 May02 Mar02 Apr21 Mar25 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 15% 5.90    
SCR  SCOOBIE QUANDO May18 Apr19 Mar23 Feb23 Jun03 (colebrook)TORRES A 122 12.00    
9  GENTLE SOUL May27 Apr19 Jul08 Jun01 Mar25 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 6.00    
10  CATHKIN PEAK (IRE) Apr27 Mar24 Feb24 Sep30 Sep02 (moger jr)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.50 33% 2.00    
SCR  HARLOCAP May17 Apr21 Mar16 Feb16 Jan06 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00    
SCR  LINCOLN HIGHWAY May18 Apr10 Nov26 Oct19 Sep17 (oliver victor)CANNON DECLAN 122 15.00    
SCR  FAIR DINKUM May18 Dec23 Nov02 Sep07 Aug05 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
SCR  KIGALI May25 Apr27 Nov15 Oct28 Sep22 (bauer philip)TORRES A 122 15.00    
SCR  MIRANDA RIGHTS May31 May02 Dec03 Nov05 Sep07 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 122 6.00    
SCR  CLYDE'S GOT A GUN May31 May18 Dec22 Nov24 Oct19 (pitts hele)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
 
CD-9   06/19/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GEORGIA ON E'SMIND May17 Aug20       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 ★    
2  NAUGHTY MISS May24 May03 Mar28 Sep20 Aug11 (cano mu)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  KATE'S CONCERTO May14 Apr27 Mar07 Jan25 Jan04 (lucas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  CHIQUITA REINA May30 May02 Feb14 Jan27 Jan10 (haran john)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 12.00    
SCR  GRACE GIVEN May31 Apr14 Mar08 Feb11 Aug13 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 3.50    
6  QUEEN ANNA T Apr20         (mckeever andre)ORTIZ L 118 8.00    
7  COMPUTADORA (ARG) May24 Apr27 Mar22     (stall albe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 5.00 ★    
8  BRIGHT LADY DAY May10 Feb14 Jan27 Dec30 Nov26 (jackson chr)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 30.00    
SCR  MISS MAXIMUS Jun01 Apr27 Sep01     (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
10  UP ON THE EDGE May27 Apr20 Dec09 Nov26 Oct26 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 70% 0.40    
SCR  OH MACARENA Jun05 Mar09 Feb02 Jan06 Dec17 (williamson)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
12  UNION DAME May24 Apr14 Mar08 Feb04 Dec17 (santamaria ca)GARCIA MARTIN 124 15.00    
SCR  MIKEY'S MAGIC GAL May09 Apr13       (west aaro)BERMUDEZ E 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.