Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Tuesday - April 30, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (1/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (1/2/3)-(5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3)-(5/3)-(3/5/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-2   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/4/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5/3)-(5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    DD (5/3)-(3/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/3)-(3/5/6)-(2/4/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-3   WIN (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/6)-(3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (3/5/6)-(2/4/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6)-(2/4/5)-(3/5/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-4   WIN (2/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/5)-(2/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/5)-(2/4/5)-(2/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (2/4/5)-(3/5/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/4/5)-(3/5/2)-(4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
TDN-5   WIN (3/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/2)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (3/5/2)-(4) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2)-(4)-(1/5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-6   WIN (4) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (4)-(4/1) 1 $1.00 $1.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (4)-(1/5/3/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (4)-(1/5/3/2)-(4/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-7   WIN (1/5/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/3/2)-(1/5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/3/2)-(1/5/3/2)-(1/5/3/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (1/5/3/2)-(4/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-8   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  K P SILVER BULLET Oct21 Oct03 Sep12 Jul20 Jul03 (jackson r)AVILES YAN 123 1.80 49% 1.00    
2  MUNI MUNI SLEW Dec30 Dec07 Nov15 Oct24 Sep13 (cannon st)GONZALEZ A 123 3.50 21% 3.70    
3  ENZOEXPRESS Jan31 Jan03 Dec11 Nov01 Oct11 (pizzurro )HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  CRIMSON ROCKET Apr01 Mar20 Feb14 Jan31 Jan18 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 123 2.00    
SCR  GEH SCHNELL Apr09 Feb05 Jan10 Dec26 Dec12 (manning ri)WEATHERLY BAILEY 118 12.00    
6  THE RED MAN Jan17 Oct08 Sep16 Aug11 Jul07 (rivera nest)PETERSON FERRIN 123 5.00    
 
TDN-2   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLAYING BALL Mar14 Feb29 Feb08 Jan24 Dec26 (zielinski richard)PAUCAR E 119 12.00    
2  CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS Apr11 Mar13 Feb26 Dec19 Nov16 (sweeti)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 3.50    
3  AGNELLO CITY Feb26 Dec26 Dec07 Nov22 Nov08 (skerrett jeffr)HOUGHTON D 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  NO MAS CERVEZA Apr11 Mar27 Mar06 Feb21 Jan09 (brown glenroy)TOLEDO S 119 2.00 ★    
5  REDDEN Apr11 Mar25 Feb21 Feb07 Jan23 (cline robert)ROSARIO L 121 1.00 62% 0.60    
 
TDN-3   04/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROYAL AIR FORCE Apr13 Mar25 Feb22 Jan02 Dec18 (yoder )BATISTA ALBERTO 119 1.60    
2  THE GOSPEL OF MARK Apr04 Jan18 Dec28 Dec04 Nov08 (vazquez iv)SMITH DIOGDINABI 119 15.00    
3  DONAHUE Apr08 Mar19 Mar11 Feb12 Oct13 (faulkner josh)TOLEDO S 119 4.00 28% 2.60    
4  NAUGHTY STREAK Apr04 Feb16 Feb03 Jan13 Nov11 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 115 1.80    
5  RAMBLIN CHROME Apr04 Feb29 Feb12 Jan18 Dec23 (brown glenroy)CEDILLO MAURO 119 5.00 26% 2.90    
6  ARCHARCH CAT Dec19 Dec06 Jun06 May24 Apr04 (tumblin and)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
TDN-4   04/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($29.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCKY PENNY ROSE Apr10 Jan11 Dec21 Dec07 Nov16 (vazquez ivan)KEISER CHELSEY 119 5.00    
2  WINDY LU WHO Apr03 Mar18 Feb24 Feb06 Dec04 (farrior )MARTINEZ A 119 1.80 42% 1.40    
3  JOYA DEL SUR Apr09 Apr01 Mar09 Feb25 Dec31 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 123 1.50    
4  MOBIL CHIC Apr10 Mar07 Feb22 Jan18 Dec21 (zielinski r)PETERSON FERRIN 121 3.00 21% 3.80    
5  SUZY Q THE QUEEN Apr03 Mar13 Feb28 Feb12 Dec16 (brown glenroy)DIAZ R 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
TDN-5   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($21.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAUSE OF LOVE Apr11 Mar13 Feb13 Jan25 Jan02 (bookman do)WEATHERLY BAILEY 114 5.00    
2  SOLE FACTOR Apr11 Nov02 Sep18 Aug07 Jul17 (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  CUE THE BAND Feb13 Jan04 Jul13 Jun24 May24 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 119 1.80 51% 1.00    
4  HITCH CITY Sep26 Aug29 Aug15 Jun26 Apr27 (jackson jam)PETERSON FERRIN 119 3.00    
5  RAINBOW SHIP Apr11 Feb13 Jan25 Jan08 Nov02 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 119 2.00 16% 5.20    
6  DANZA MAGIC Feb20 Jan01 Nov28 Nov02 Oct03 (yoder )BATISTA ALBERTO 119 15.00    
 
TDN-6   04/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AFJAN Apr09 Mar07 Feb08 Jan25 Oct21 (meyers shan)PETERSON FERRIN 119 1.60 ★    
2  ORO DE MORO MORO Apr13 Apr08 Feb20 Feb01 Jan01 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 123 10.00    
SCR  NASTY HABIT Apr21 Mar28 Feb05 Dec17 Nov19 (farrior )MARTINEZ A 119 3.00    
4  HIDDEN ACCESS Apr09 Mar14 Feb14 Jan11 Dec13 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 121 5.00 24% 3.20    
5  STOP BEING GREEDY Apr09 Mar08 Feb17     (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 115 1.80    
 
TDN-7   04/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRANCO (MEX) Mar25 Mar07 Feb21 Feb08 Jan23 (radosevich jef)HOUGHTON D 119 5.00 62% 0.60    
2  SAY HEY KID Feb05 Dec27 Dec06 Nov21 Nov01 (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  ALGORIX Feb15 Sep27 Sep05 Aug16 Jul24 (szczepanski emil)AVILES YAN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  STREET MAX Mar26 Feb05 Jan04 Dec19 Dec04 (zielinski richard)PAUCAR E 119 3.50    
5  T MONEY Apr13 Mar19 Feb24 Feb14 Jan11 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 119 5.00 9% 10.60    
6  EL DE CHIMI Mar26 Feb19 Jan27 Dec22 Nov18 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 119 3.00    
7  DIXIE GIANT Apr13 Feb13 Feb01 Jan24 Dec29 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 119 2.50    
8  LONG RAP SHEET Dec30 Dec06 Nov19 Nov13 Oct24 (prado eduar)PETERSON FERRIN 119 15.00    
 
TDN-8   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GEMO RAIN Mar25 Mar18 Feb27 Feb20 Feb05 (cr)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 15.00    
2  STAY THIRSTY AMIGO Mar20 Mar06 Sep18 Aug22 Jul26 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 123 1.80    
3  NO BANG NO BOOM (IRE) Mar27 Sep28 Aug17 Jul26 Jul06 (cannon st)GONZALEZ A 123 8.00 27% 2.70    
4  MALIBU CLASSIC Apr22 Apr08 Mar19 Mar06 Feb01 (urieta johanna)DIAZ I 123 6.00 43% 1.30    
5  LOST IN MANHATTAN Dec28 Dec04 Aug15 Jul17 Jul12 (romero jose )VILCHEZ MAIKOL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  OTIS OTIS OTIS Apr13 Mar10 Feb17 Jan28 Jan05 (puhl kim)BOWEN ROCCO 123 4.00    
SCR  FIRST HOMESTEAD Feb08 Jan18 Nov01 Sep05 Aug22 (meyers sha)WEATHERLY BAILEY 118 2.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.