Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Fair Grounds
Sunday - December 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

FG-1   WIN (6/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/7)-(6/3/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/3/7)-(6/3/4/7)-(6/3/4/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/3/7)-(4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/3/7)-(4/5)-(1/3/9) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
FG-2   WIN (4/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/5)-(4/5/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/5)-(4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/5)-(1/3/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/5)-(1/3/9)-(2/4/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
FG-3   WIN (1/3/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/9)-(1/3/9/13) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/3/9)-(1/3/9/13)-(1/3/9/13) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/3/9)-(2/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/9)-(2/4/3)-(12/9/7) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
FG-4   WIN (2/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/3)-(2/4/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/4/3)-(2/4/3/6)-(2/4/3/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/4/3)-(12/9/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/4/3)-(12/9/7)-(3/6/4) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
FG-5   WIN (12/9/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (12/9/7)-(12/9/7/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (12/9/7)-(12/9/7/5)-(12/9/7/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (12/9/7)-(3/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (12/9/7)-(3/6/4)-(10/3/11) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
FG-6   WIN (3/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/4)-(3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/4)-(10/3/11) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/6/4)-(10/3/11)-(2/9/5) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
FG-7   WIN (10/3/11) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/3/11)-(10/3/11) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (10/3/11)-(10/3/11)-(10/3/11) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (10/3/11)-(2/9/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FG-8   WIN (2/9/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/9/5)-(2/9/7/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/9/5)-(2/9/7/8/5)-(2/9/7/8/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
FG-1   12/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TEXAS TIDELANDS Aug28 Jul17 Jun25 Jun15 May20 (govea cesar)NIEVES EMANUEL 121 10.00    
WAIT ON ME Sep09 Aug27 Jul30 Jul17 Jun26 (hatcher na)WELLINGTON KYLIE 114 8.00    
WHAT CAN I SAY Jul10 Jun12 Mar23 Feb10 Dec22 (foster joseph )GREEN AUBRIE 116 6.00 17% 4.80    
SHE'S MY PRIORITY Dec01 Nov02 Oct14 Aug26 Jun29 (broberg karl)LANERIE J 121 2.50    
HOT PATOOTIE Dec01 Sep09 Jul15 May19 Apr26 (ney john)CARMONA SERAFIN 113 5.00    
GUANAJUATO Dec01 Sep09 Aug27 Jul30 Jul02 (brinkman )PEDROZA MARCELINO 118 2.00 53% 0.90    
GURKHA GOLD (IRE) Oct25 Aug27 Jul20 Jul06 May13 (schwandt emile)MELANCON G 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
FG-2   12/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 GOOD Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ALL WEST Dec02 Nov04 Apr30 Apr08 Mar10 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 3.00    
GIMME SOME MO Jul22 May15 Feb21 May08 Mar20 (munoz yovani)MELANCON G 120 20.00    
MISSED THE BOAT Dec02 Nov15 Sep17 Sep03 Aug06 (troiani)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
DEVIL'S TOWER Sep23 Aug20 Jul27 Jul13 May26 (hernandez armando)GRAHAM J 120 1.60 33% 2.10    
SECRET RULES Aug13 Jul14 Jun22 May20 Apr23 (falcone rob)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 1.20 27% 2.70    
 
FG-3   12/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($24K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SMOKIN RICHIE Nov24 Oct04 Sep04 Aug10 Jul21 (lopez elias)HERNANDEZ K 121 4.00 29% 2.40    
PREMIUM Nov23 Oct28 Sep10 Jul31 Jun26 (hargrave )PEDROZA MARCELINO 119 8.00    
LYRICAL POET Nov24 Oct18 Sep03 Aug02 Oct23 (rodriguez hugo)NAVAS YOEL 116 8.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  SIGN OF WAR Nov24 Aug21 Aug13 Apr01 Mar05 (govea cesar)GREEN AUBRIE 118 12.00    
SCR  FIREINTHESTORM Nov18 Oct11 Sep12 Aug04 Jun22 (courville )MARQUEZ L 118 6.00    
HEZA PRIORITY Dec03 Nov01 Oct18 Sep12 Aug13 (husak g)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
SCR  ALICIA'S KID Nov12 Oct21 Oct07 Sep09 Aug18 (flint stev)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 3.50    
SCR  SEVEN SCENTS Nov24 Oct04 Sep13 Aug02 Jun15 (breaux samuel)PARKER L 121 4.50    
MEN OF KYLE Nov23 Aug19 Jul23 May22 Apr01 (duhon paul)MELANCON G 121 5.00 11% 7.80    
SCR  JAKE THE BAND MAN Oct07 Sep10 Aug13 Jul24 Jul08 (cravens ronn)NIEVES EMANUEL 118 6.00    
SCR  CUSTOM KAT May12 Apr28 Feb28 Feb03 Jan13 (arey anthon)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
SCR  KLEINMEISTER May27 Nov10 Oct13 Aug19 Aug05 (arey antho)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00    
13  SAINT SELBY Oct14 Sep01 Jul22 Jun10 May20 (atras rob)TORRES A 121 1.60    
14  HE'S A BOMB Oct19 Sep22 Aug07 Jun22 May29 (govea cesar)GREEN AUBRIE 121 5.00    
 
FG-4   12/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CLASSIC RUNNER Nov24 Oct21 Oct06 Sep06 Aug24 (govea cesar)NIEVES EMANUEL 121 12.00    
FABLED RULER Nov24 Sep12 Sep04 Jul31 Jun10 (hargrave kenneth)RIQUELME J 118 4.00 35% 1.90    
TIME TO MEDDLE Nov24 Oct17 Sep24 Aug20 Jul23 (terre david)CURTIS BEN 121 3.50 21% 3.80    
CHILI RED Nov24 Oct20 Aug05 Jul14 Jun09 (terre davi)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00 23% 3.40    
HUMOR ME PLEASE Nov30 Oct12 Sep14 Aug25 Jun26 (govea cesar)GREEN AUBRIE 118 6.00    
IZEONDEC Nov30 Nov04 Oct10 Sep24 Aug30 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 121 2.50    
OFFSHORE TITHE Oct17 Sep28 Jul06 Jun22 Jun07 (silva miguel)PARKER L 118 10.00    
 
FG-5   12/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CHARLIE G Nov24 Sep02 Jul20 Jun15 May25 (thomas lee)MCMAHON J 119 10.00    
SCR  PERRINS Mar16 Feb24 Jan26 Mar23 Mar05 (stall m)LANERIE J 119 4.50    
SCR  DEER CROSSING Nov24 Sep11 Aug04 Jul13 Jun03 (delhomme jeff)GRAHAM J 119 3.50    
JEB'S LUCKY EIGHT Nov24 Sep09 Jul15 May27 Apr20 (pennino frank)GREEN AUBRIE 119 20.00    
TOUCHDOWN JOE Nov21 Oct06 Aug04 Jul13 Jun23 (noel dane)ROMAN KEVIN 119 5.00    
SCR  CALIBRACHOA KID Dec07 Jul15 Jun03 May15 Apr28 (wilson)GUERRERO ANDRES 117 8.00    
SILVER GALAXY Dec09 Oct06 Aug05 Jul22 Jun11 (duhon paul)WELLINGTON KYLIE 114 10.00 13% 6.40    
MONARCH'S MISCHIEF Nov21 Nov10 Sep11 Aug05 Jul07 (turner pa)PEDROZA MARCELINO 119 12.00    
COFFEE COUNTY Nov24 May06 Apr14 Mar16 Mar03 (cuccia j)MELANCON G 119 5.00 21% 3.80    
10  PEPPER JACK Dec08 Nov24 Oct27 Oct13 Sep28 (govea cesar)NIEVES EMANUEL 119 15.00    
SCR  HUDSON'S TURN Nov24 Sep11 May28 Mar03 Jan20 (foster j)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 119 10.00    
12  SUNDAY BREEZE Oct24 Mar22 Mar03 Feb02 Jan05 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
 
FG-6   12/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SOUTH SIDE Apr23         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 122 4.00    
  (by CURLIN out of OFTEN by GALILEO)
AUTO DIAL Nov24 Aug18 Jul31 Jul12 Jun25 (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 122 6.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of TAPICERA by TAPIT)
MUSICAL MAESTRO Jun26         (asmussen stev)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00 47% 1.10    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of MISS KILROY by A.P. INDY)
FREE RAMBLING MAN Oct26 May27 Apr27 Mar23   (calhoun will)TORRES A 122 4.50 11% 8.40    
  (by BERNARDINI out of NAUGHTY LITTLE NUN by SONGANDAPRAYER)
SCR  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Nov09 Jun16 May21 Mar19 Feb11 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 124 15.00    
  (by FROSTED out of LITTLE JUDE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
BEAUTIFUL LIFE         (stall albert)MURRAY M 122 3.50 13% 6.60    
  (by DIALED IN out of IM SO FINE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
DAZZLEMESILVER Dec01 Nov17 Oct22 Sep04 Jul21 (desormeaux)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of INDIAN GODDESS by WAQUOIT)
 
FG-7   12/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($52K) 2 F PT- 4:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BEAUTIFUL MISCHIEF Nov18 Oct19 Sep27     (kenneally )HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of NEFERTITI by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  SARANAC LAKE         (sharp joe)CURTIS BEN 120 8.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SUNSHINEANDSILENCE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SPIN THE BREEZE Aug02         (robertson hugh)GRAHAM J 120 8.00 6% 15.60    
  (by HARD SPUN out of NEWPORT BREEZE by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
SOTONA Oct19 Sep09 Aug01     (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 12.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of DIANA'S THRILL by ARTIE SCHILLER)
SCR  TAMMY LYNN Nov11 Oct06 Sep02     (stall m)LANERIE J 120 2.50    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  RENFREW Nov11 Sep27       (sharp joe)TORRES A 120 5.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of AMAZING PEYTON by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
OH MACARENA         (williamson bria)MCMAHON J 120 15.00    
  (by BOLD WARRIOR out of HAT DANCE by CACTUS RIDGE)
GALADINI         (block chri)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 8.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of J P GIRL by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  MATCHING ENERGY Oct07 Aug19 Jul20     (stidham mic)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 6.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of SILENT TRIUMPH by CITY ZIP)
10  CLEAR VOICE Oct29 Sep16       (devaux ch)PEDROZA MARCELINO 120 2.50 68% 0.50    
  (by KANTHAROS out of HEIDI MARIA by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
11  MISCHIEVOUSNESS Nov05 Sep16       (lovell miche)TORRES A 120 8.00 5% 18.30    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of WILD FOR LOVE by NOT FOR LOVE)
SCR  LIGHTNING MYQUEEN Sep29         (casse mark)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 6.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of C J'S GAL by AWESOME AGAIN)
SCR  TIPSY RUNNER Nov17 Aug28 Aug04     (amoss m)LANERIE J 120 6.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of STAND BACK by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  JOKE MASTER Nov17 Oct19 Sep07 Aug01 Jul07 (maker j)GRAHAM J 120 8.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of QUEEN NEGWER by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  PLAGNE CHAMPAGNE Oct06 Sep16       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of SENTIMENTAL by HONOR CODE)
SCR  FLEET FROST Nov24 Oct18       (stidham michael)CURTIS BEN 120 20.00    
  (by FROSTED out of MISS FROST by CURLIN)
 
FG-8   12/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ST PIERRE Nov15 Oct26 Jun08 May25 May06 (stemmans donald)MELANCON G 121 20.00    
AMERICAN DOLLARS Oct18 May15 Mar11 Feb23 Jan28 (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 121 1.80 46% 1.20    
LACEY'S STAR Sep03 Aug20 Jul30 Jun15 May04 (avant kelly)NIEVES EMANUEL 118 12.00    
RENATI Nov23 Feb24 Nov24 Sep26 Aug28 (duke steven)CARMONA SERAFIN 118 10.00    
LINCOLN PRODUCTION Dec01 Sep11 Jul29 Jul02 Jan08 (duhon o)GRAHAM J 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
PUNCHIE Dec01 Sep09 Aug05 Jul01 Jun19 (duhon joseph )MORALES EDGAR 123 20.00    
VERO CAMPIONE Dec01 Aug26 Jul30 Jul08 May22 (duke steven)MURRAY M 123 4.50    
PARKER NOW Nov23 Jul15 Dec26     (david sam)PEDROZA MARCELINO 121 5.00    
RONALDS GATSBY Sep11 Jul29 Jul04 Jun19 May22 (wilson)GUERRERO ANDRES 123 5.00 31% 2.20    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.